THE INDEPENDENT AND NON PARTISAN STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 BY MERVIN D. FiElD. 234 Front Street San Francisco 94111 (415) 3925763 COPYRIGHT 1982 BY THE FIELD INSTITUTE. FOR PUBLICATION BY SUBSCRIBERS ONLY. Release #1144 Release date: Wednesday, February 3, 1982 BRADLEY CONTINUES TO LEAD DEMOCRATIC GUBERNATORIAL RIVALS. HIS LEAD OVER DEUKMEJIAN NARROWS. by Mervin D. Field IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents of report are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520) Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley continues to be the front runner not only for the Democratic party nomination for governor but in tests of strength against the two leading Republican candidates vying for the GOP nomination. In a statewide survey completed before he made his formal announcement of candidacy last week, Bradley has an overwhelming lead over other possible Democratic candidates in rank and file preferences. He also continues to lead Republicans George Deukmejian and Mike Curb in each of two possible general election pairings. However, the current survey shows that Bradley's lead over Deukmejian, the current GOP front runner, is only about half of what it was last fall. Thus far in the Democratic primary race only Bradley and State Senator John Garamendi have made formal declarations of candidacy. There has been much speculation that two other Democrats, State Controller Ken Cory and Health and Welfare Secretary Mario Obledo, will enter the race. The official candidate filing deadline is March 12. The following table compares current preferences in the Democratic gubernatorial race with recent California Poll surveys taken last year. Democrats - Statewide January OCtober August Preferences for Democratic 1982 1981 1981 nomination for Governor Bradley 58 61 51 Cory 15 16 12 Garamendi 6 4 Obledo 5 4 Others * * * 24 Undecided 16 15 13 The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial me.dia sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provid~fli~} TFeE1!feI'l!U?ii~lrt,te, a non-profit, non partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of sociai survey findings to the public and for the pub He benefit. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.
The California Poll #1144 page two As reported yesterday by The California Poll, in the Republican primary race Attorney General George Deukmejian has increased his lead over Lt. Governor Mike Curb to 43 to 32 among Republicans who are registered to vote. To get indications of how candidate support now divides when each of the two top Democratic candidates are matched against the two Republican candidates, a cross section of all registered voters was asked to state their current preferences in four possible November 1982 gubernatorial match-ups. These pairings show that while Bradley still has a substantial lead of 11 points over Deukmejian, his current margin is less than the overwhelming 24 and 21 point leads registered last August and October. Bradley's current lead over Curb is 19 points, down from 26 and 23 point margins found in the earlier surveys. The following shows the trend of these pairings as found in the last three California Poll surveys. Bradley Deukmejian Undecided 1982 Gubernatorial race January October August 1982 1981 1981 50 39 11 Bradley 55 57 57 Curb 36 34 31 Undecided 9 9 12 Deukmejian Cory Undecided 43 40 17 54 33 13 39 43 18 Cory 46 46 43 Curb 40 38 38 Undecided 14 16 19 55 31 14 38 40 22 One of the frequently discussed topics in this year's gubernatorial contest is what effect the fact that Bradley is Black will have on the voters. An analysis made by The California Poll shows that Bradley has exceptionally strong appeal among this state's racial minorities. However, minorities were estimated to have accounted for an aggregate of just 17 of the California vote in the 1980 November Presidential election (Hispanics 8, Blacks 5 and others 4).
The California Poll 111144 page three No matter how big a vote Bradley or any other minority statewide officeseeker may get from his or her own ethnic group and other minorities, the candidate would have to get strong (but not necessarily majority) support from Whites to win on Election Day. The California Poll finds in its most recent surveys that Bradley is indeed overwhelmingly preferred by Blacks and Hispanics. In addition, he achieves a plurality of support from Whites when paired against either Deukmejian or Curb. Bradley currently has a three point lead over Deukmejian and a twelve point lead over Curb among Whites. Gubernatorial Preferences by Ethnicity Whites (Anglos) Jan '82 Oct '81 Hispanics Jan '82 Oct '81 Blacks Jan '82 Oct '81 Bradley 46 46 62 73 83 87 Deukmejian 43 41 23 17 10 4 Undecided 11 13 15 10 7 9 Bradley 51 51 70 65 88 90 Curb 39 41 18 24 5 3 Undecided 10 8 12 11 7 7 (Base) (656 ) (787) (92 ) (109) (58) (70) The fact that there is some variance in Bradley's lead among Whites in the two pairings against Deukmejian and Curb seems to indicate that White voters are currently making their gubernatorial preferences on matters other than the skin color of the candidates. While racism in California politics is less pronounced now than However, at present it does not appear to be a significant factor in the way Whites are making judgements of Tom Bradley in his gubernatorial candidacy. it was as recently as one generation ago, it can not be entirely discounted. -30
THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN STATEWIDE SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 BY MERVIN D. FiElD. 234 Front Street San Francisco 94111 (413) 392-5763 INFORMATION ABOUT THE SURVEY #1144 DATES AND TIME OF INTERVIEWING January 15 through 20, 1982. Late afternoon and evening, all day Saturday and Sunday. Interviews made by telephone. POPULATION COVERED Representative cross section of California adults from which registered voter subgroups were extracted. SIZE OF SAr1PLE Statewide 1015 Note: On those questions where a Democratic Gubernatorial candidate was paired Registered to vote 806 against a RepUblican candidate in a Democrats Republicans Others 399 320 87 general election simulation, the sample was weighted to reflect the following partisan distribution: 50 Democrat, 40 Republican and 10 other. This distribution represents The California Poll's estimate of current voting participation proportions of these partisan groups. The current distribution of registered voters in the state is 53 Democrat, 35 Republican and 12 other. QUESTIONS ASKED (Asked of Democrats only) I am going to read a list of people who might be candidates for the Democratic nomination for Governor of California in next June's primary election and I would like to find out your preferences at this time. The names on the list are Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, State Controller Ken cory, State Secretary of Health and Welfare Mario Obledo and State Senator John Garamendi. Suppose the election for the Democratic nomination for Governor were being held today and these candidates were on the ballot -- who would be your first choice? (Asked of everyone) I am going to read the different pairs of possible Democratic and Republican candidates for Governor in the November General Election. For each pairing please tell me which candidate you would choose if the election for Governor were being held today. The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, impartial media sponsored public opinion news service. The Poll is one of the services provided by The Field Institute, a non-profit, non-partisan organization devoted to the study of public opinion and behavior on social and political issues. The Field Institute is dedicated to encouraging the widest possible dissemination of social survey findings to the public and for the public benefil. The Institute receives its support from academic, governmental, media, and private sources.
..... Poll Operation and Sponsorship The California Poll has operated continuously since 1947 as an independent, non-partisan media sponsored public opinion news se.rvice. Th~ Poll is owned by Field Research CorporatIOn and smce 1976 h~s been operated by The Field Institute,.a non-pro.flt, non-partisan research group engaged mconductmg studiesofpublic opinion on issuesof social significance. The Institute receives its financial support from academic, governmental, media and private sources. Survey Method Interviews in this survey were made by telephone. Sample homes are drawn in accordance with a probability.;ample design that gives all areas of. the state and all neighborhoods a properly proportionate chance to be included. Telephone numbers are randomly generated by computer in proporti<;)fi to local prefix allocation density to remove non-listed telephone biases. Up to four calls are made to each number at different times to reach one adult in each household. An adult respondent is selected for the interview using an objective procedure to provide a balance of age and sex. Accuracy of the Findings Several factors must be considered in assessing the accuracy of the findings in this and other California Poll reports. One is the amount of tolerance in the findings due to the presence of random variations inherent in the sampling process itself. Another are any inaccuracies caused by judgemental factors such as question wording and sample design; and a third are the effects ofexternal events. Sampling Tolerance The amount of sampling tolerance in these survey findings can be estimated quite precisely by the use of well-tested statistical formulas. The California Poll uses an advanced method known as replicated sampling that provides an empirically determined estimate of the range of so-called sampling error for each item of information developed by the survey. This method takes account ofthe size of the sample, the degree of variability in response to each item. sample design effects (clustering, weighting), and the effects of variable interviewer and coder performance. An estimate of the sampling error range for this survey is shown in the table below. The sampling tolerance has been calculated at two statistical confidence levels which are customarily used by social scientists - the 95'70 and the 99'70 level. To use the table. first select the sample size on which the percentage in question is based. Then note the plus and minus range of sampling tolerance for the degree of confidence desired and apply this to the percentage figure. The resulting "high" and "low" estimates show the range within which we can have 95'70 (or 99'70) confidence that if the whole population of the state had been surveyed with the same questionnaire, the results of such a complete coverage would fall between the two figures obtained from the data in the table. The sample tolerance figures shown in the table are average figures derived from the actual experience of a number of recent surveys. They represent maximum tolerances for the sample bases shown, i.e., for survey findings where the division ofopinion is around 50-50. Survey findings that show a more one-sided distribution of opinion. such as 70'70-30 or 90-10. are usually subject to slightly lower sampling tolerance than thpse shown in the table. Table of Sampling Tolerances for Data from Surveys of The California Poll Plus/minus percentage range of sampling tolerance at- Sample Size 95'70 confidence 99'70 confidence 1200............ 3.0... 4.0 1000 3.3... 4.3 800 3.7 4.9 600..... 4.2.............. 5.6 400..... 5.2... 6.9 mo. 7.5... 9.9 50.....15.0......... 19.8 Other Possible Sources of Error In addition to sampling error, there are other important sources of potential inaccuracies in these (and in other) poll findings. These sources include the effects of possibly biased or misleading questions, possible systematic omission of relevant segments ofthe population from the survey sample, and the effects of significant events that occur during or after the time the survey interviews are made. There is no standard measure of these effects; each must be evaluated judgmcntally. Furthermore, since the influence of these factors on the ultimate accuracy of the survey findings may be many times greater than the amount of sampling error, it is important that they also be carefully weighed. So that the reader will have information needed to judge the possible importance of these effects, The California Poll provides this bulletin with each release, describing the question(s) used, the size and type of sample used, and the dates of interviewing. The California Poll has an excellent record for accuracy in reflecting public opinion during its 33 year history. The staff of The California Poll takes great care to formulate questions which we feel are objective and unbiased and to carefully supervise the data gathering phases and other research operations upon which the Poll's findings are based. Nevertheless, users of this (and any other public opinion polling data) should be continually mindful ofallof the factors that influence any poll's accuracy. Sampling error is not the only criterion. and we caution against citing only the sampling error figure alone as the measure of a survey's accuracy, since to do so tends to create an impression of a greater degree of precision than has in fact been achieved. Suggested copy for editors to use when presenting California Poll data in publication or newscast Surveys of the kind reported here by The California Poll are subject to variability due to sampling factors and to other possible sources of influence on their accuracy. The statewide sample results shown in this report are subject to a sampling tolerance of plus or minus approximately percentage points. The (reader) (viewer) (listener) should also be aware, however, that there are other possible sources of error for which precise estimates cannot be calculated. For example, different results might have been obtained from different question wording, and undetected flaws in the way the sampling and interviewing procedures were carried out could have a significant effect on the findings. Good polling practices diminish the chances of such errors, but they can never be entirely ruled out. It is also possible. of course. that events occuring since the time the interviews were conducted could have changed the opinions reported here. TI