EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC & HOUSING TRENDS IN ARIZONA

ARIZONA FAIR HOUSING SYMPOSIUM EMERGING DEMOGRAPHIC & HOUSING TRENDS IN ARIZONA Deirdre Pfeiffer, Ph.D., AICP Assistant Professor Arizona State University deirdre.pfeiffer@ asu.edu Source: David Sacks, 2014

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y The minority population (particularly Latino) is growing much faster than the white population. Source: Deirdre Pfeiffer

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y The minority population (particularly Latino) is growing much faster than the white population. Many estimate that we will become a majority minority nation within the next thirty to forty years. Source: Deirdre Pfeiffer

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y The minority population (particularly Latino) is growing much faster than the white population. Many estimate that we will become a majority minority nation within the next thirty to forty years. Immigration and birth rates are primary drivers Source: Deirdre Pfeiffer

Source: Brookings Institution

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y Diverse suburb Defined as having a 20% to 60% population of color (Myron Orfield & Thomas Luce) Source: Myron Orfield & Thomas Luce

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y Diverse suburb Driven by: Migration of poor to the suburbs

Source: Brookings Institution

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y Diverse suburb Driven by: Migration of poor to the suburbs High housing costs in central cities Desire to forge a unique ethnic suburban identity

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y Ethnoburb Coined by Wei Li, author of Ethnoburb More affluent than an ethnic enclave Formed more by choice rather than constraint

CHANDLER, AZ Source: Phoenix New Times

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y Housing challenges in ethnoburbs: Ethnic newcomers may change their homes in ways that do not conform to existing zoning/building codes or design guidelines/development standards

Source: Jonathan Bell

Source: Jee-Shaun Wang

TREND #1: GROWING RACIAL & ETHNIC DIVERSIT Y Housing challenges in ethnoburbs: Ethnic newcomers may change their homes in ways that do not conform to existing zoning/building codes or design guidelines/development standards These changes could incite public opposition and lead to the revision of existing codes or regulations, limiting ethnic newcomers ability to adapt their housing to meet their needs

TREND #2: GROWING RACIAL AND ETHNIC INTEGRATION Diverse racial and ethnic groups are increasingly likely to live in the same neighborhoods Yet, divides between African Americans and whites are persisting

TREND #2: GROWING RACIAL AND ETHNIC INTEGRATION Dissimilarity index (DI) % of one group that would have to move to be completely integrated into the neighborhoods of another group 0 100 in percentage terms, 0 1 in decimals Source: Spatial Structures in the Social Sciences

TREND #2: GROWING RACIAL AND ETHNIC INTEGRATION Dissimilarity index (DI) % of one group that would have to move to be completely integrated in the neighborhoods of another group 0 100 in percentage terms, 0 1 in decimals Dissimilarity index between Tempe Latinos and whites is 26 <30 is low, 30-60 is moderate, >60 is high

TREND #2: GROWING RACIAL AND ETHNIC INTEGRATION

TREND #2: GROWING RACIAL AND ETHNIC INTEGRATION

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES The movement of families from the for-sale to rental market put upward pressure on rents

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES Source: Joint Center for Housing Studies

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES The movement of families from the for-sale to rental market put upward pressure on rents New rental opportunities opened up in formerly predominately owner occupied neighborhoods

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES The movement of families from the for-sale to rental market put upward pressure on rents New rental opportunities opened up in formerly predominately owner occupied neighborhoods Investors conversion of foreclosures to rentals expanded voucher holders access to low poverty neighborhoods in Phoenix Yet there is concern about the welfare of renters living in investor purchased foreclosures

Source: Deirdre Pfeiffer

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES The movement of families from the for-sale to rental market put upward pressure on rents New rental opportunities opened up in formerly predominately owner occupied neighborhoods Investors conversion of foreclosures to rentals expanded voucher holders access to low poverty neighborhoods in Phoenix Yet there is concern about the welfare of renters living in investor purchased foreclosures Communities that have rapidly transitioned from predominately owner- to renter-occupied may face issues with housing discrimination

Source: Bonile Bam

TREND #3: NEW HOUSING OPPORTUNITIES POST-FORECLOSURES The movement of families from the for-sale to rental market put upward pressure on rents New rental opportunities opened up in formerly predominately owner occupied neighborhoods Investors conversion of foreclosures to rentals expanded voucher holders access to low poverty neighborhoods in Phoenix Yet there is concern about the welfare of renters living in investor purchased foreclosures Communities that have rapidly transitioned from predominately owner- to renter-occupied may face issues with housing discrimination There also may experience a mismatch between the needs of newcomers and available services

Source: Justin Sullivan