Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Dr. Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Dr. Muhammad Abdul Ghaffar Bahrain Center for Strategic, International and Energy Studies (Derasat) Paper presented at the 15 th Asian Security Conference 2013 Emerging Trends in Western Asia: Regional and Global Implications

Table of Contents Abstract Introduction I. The concept of pivotal states in West Asia 1- The Concept and Types of Pivotal states 2- Types of Pivotal states II. Pillars of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia 1- Historical Background 2- Geostrategic Background 3- Current International Changes III. Areas of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia 1- At the Strategic Level 2- At the Security Level 3- At the Economic Level IV. Current changes in the GCC countries 1- At the Internal Level 2- At the Regional Level V. Principles and foundations of future cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia 1- Resolving current problems: non-proliferation of nuclear weapons and the Palestinian conflict 2- Principles of future cooperation between countries of West Asia 6 7 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 14 15 17 17 18 18 19 19 VI. Future of Change within West Asia 20

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Abstract The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are well aware, in light of current regional and international changes, of the strategic importance of the Gulf-Asian relationship, and of Gulf-Indian rapports in particular. These countries can establish a cooperative model for security and stability based on economic development and commercial cooperation distinct from the strategy of power politics. In other words, the desired cooperation between the West Asian countries is based on three principles: First: Common historical and cultural links which constituted an essential basis for commercial prosperity throughout history in addition to the geostrategic reality. Second: Common security challenges facing West Asian countries such as illegal trade and piracy. Third: Current regional and international developments which require close cooperation between West Asian countries. The goal is to achieve security and stability in the region based on its strategic importance at the regional and international levels through cooperation between its pivotal states. However, such cooperation will not be productive until problems behind the current state of instability are resolved, particularly the Palestinian conflict, the proliferation of nuclear weapons in the Arabian Gulf and the Middle East and the regional and international conflict in Syria. On the other hand, security and stability between pivotal states in West Asia can be achieved only in light of several principles, notably respecting internal affairs of other countries, the reinforcement of the principles of cooperative security rather than strategic security and the presence of robust and sustainable accommodating frameworks for regional cooperation. 6

First: The concept and types of pivotal states in West Asia Introduction The current world equilibrium is undergoing profound and historical changes that could lead to unexpected outcomes in the strategic international balance of powers. This is obvious in the economic structural problems facing the United States and Europe and their impact on foreign policy, as in the case of the United States changing its defense policy over the next ten years. A prominent consequence has been the emergence of the concept of regionalism. West Asia can be seen as a model constituting an important strategic region containing pivotal states, namely the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries as a regional organization, India and other countries such as Iran and Pakistan. Cooperation between them may lead to the rise of a new geostrategic reality that is more positive than the prevailing regional atmosphere. 7

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes First: The concept and types of pivotal states in West Asia 1- The Concept of Pivotal States The concept of a pivotal state refers to a country or group of countries having the tools of power and influence within a specific region according to certain criteria, including the degree of social, economic, political and organizational integrity 1. Another definition for pivotal states refers to their crucial political geography which implies that any attitude they adopt will have a huge impact on the region, and, maybe, the whole world. 2 This is due in part, to the equal measure of their influence on regional and international stability. A third approach is that, pivotal states draw their importance from some combination of their large population, economic influence, military power, key geographical location, cultural reach, or commodity resources. 3 According to these definitions, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the GCC countries as a regional organization can be considered pivotal states as they possess a unique social harmony in addition to the similarity in their political regimes and their economies. Organizationally, they fall under one umbrella - the GCC. These characteristics give them regional significance in addition to their positive and balanced international relationships with influential countries on the international scene. 2- Types of Pivotal States in West Asia Pivotal states in West Asia can be divided into three categories: First: Countries engaging positively with their regional and international milieu. Second: Countries engaging negatively at the regional and international level. Third: Countries that vacillate between positive and negative engagement according to the specific circumstances. To elaborate, we can initially say that countries engaging positively with their regional and international milieu build their external policy on good-neighborliness, peaceful coexistence and sanctity of state borders. Countries engaging negatively with their regional and international environment interfere in the affairs of neighboring countries, which hinders any positive role they might have and creates tension in their regional and international relations. With regard to some countries in West Asia, influential balance can be deemed the criterion that controls vacillation between positive and negative engagement and explains developments in some of these countries. 8

The figure below illustrates the idea: 9

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Second: Pillars of cooperation among pivotal states in West Asia 1- Historical Background - Cooperation prevailed in West Asia in ancient times, specifically in the period from 1258 to 1498, which experienced a flourishing of trade activity. The year 1258, marked the transition of over-land trade from India and China through Asia, to the Indian Ocean passing through Egypt, following the Mongol invasion and capture of Baghdad. The year 1498 marked the discovery of the maritime Cape of Good Hope route, and thereafter, the Indian Ocean gradually lost its significance. - Based on historical phases undergone by the Indian Ocean, three main conclusions can be drawn: First: The important role of Arab ports in trading activities of the Indian Ocean and this includes the Omani Coast. Because of its important location at the entry of the Arabian Gulf, it was an important intermediary in the inbound trade from the East and West. Sohar was considered one of the major trading ports at the time as it was a point of departure for travelers to China. It reached its peak of prosperity in the period from the fourth to the seventh century of the Hijri calender. There were also the ports of Basra and Bahrain. Second: The multitude of commercial powers of Arabs, Indians, Africans, Chinese and Persians, significantly contributed to trade activities. Third: Despite the tremendous size of trade in the Indian Ocean throughout the ages, there was no attempt by any coastal countries to monopolize or control continuously such activities. There was an exchange of locations between the Indian Ocean parties and therefore, everyone worked on contributing to and benefiting from it. 4 These facts should form a strong foundation for drafting future visions with regard to building a region where security and stability prevail and trade motivates it. In other words, the target cooperation among pivotal states in West Asia does not mean creating something from nothing, but rather the concretization of a reality deeply inspired by the historical and cultural heritage shared by these regions. 10

Third: Areas of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia 2- Geostrategic Background The Indian Ocean is the world s third largest ocean after the Pacific and Atlantic oceans. With an area of about 74 million square kilometers, it is equivalent to about 20% of the total area of water in the world. It is linked with many passages, straits and canals of strategic importance to global trade, such as the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, the Arabian Gulf, t he Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Strait of Hormuz. This means there are close links with with the security of the Gulf region and Western Asia, in addition to straits connecting the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean 5, such as the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 17 million barrels of oil, or about 20% of global oil consumption, transit per day. 6 Writing on the strategic significance of the Indian Ocean, Robert Kaplan asserted that the United States should seek to contain the growing role of India and China as they are entering into a dynamic great-power rivalry in these waters. He said that the approach of the United States to the Indian Ocean should not be similar to what happened in both Iraq and Afghanistan and getting involvement in civil wars, but should be to impose a strong sea presence and to act as a sea-based balancer. 7 3- Current International Changes The international scene i s currently undergoing important strategic changes, foremost among which is the United States withdrawal from several parts of the world including Iraq in 2011, and Afghanistan expectedly in 2014, in addition to changes in the energy market. In this context, it is worth highlighting three issues: First: The argument about the nature of the United States role abroad from now onwards in light of the announcement by the United States Administration that it will be reducing United States military expenses by nearly $487 billion over the next ten years 8. This announcement came in light of the economic crisis facing the United States, with official sources indicating that the total US domestic debt reached $16 trillion in 2012 9. Second: The evolving regional and international role of the pivotal states in Asia, particularly India and China, in the present as well as in the future. Third: The World Energy Outlook 2012 issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast that by 2020, the United States will surpass Saudi Arabia as the biggest oil producer in the world. The report also indicated a continued fall in United States 11

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes oil imports, to the extent that North America becomes a net oil exporter around 2030. It also mentioned that the United States currently imports around 20% of its total energy needs 10. The report indicates that US energy imports in general decreased from 2.8 million barrels a day in 2000 to 2 million barrels a day in 2011. It is expected that the imports will continue to fall to 0.3 million barrels a day in 2025. 11 These are all indicators that the United States role towards the world might undergo change. Within this context, in his book, Zero-Sum World: Politics, Power and Prosperity After the Crash, June 2011, economic analyst, Gideon Rachman, presented a view in which he stated that after the economic analyst, Gideon Rachman, the United States is no longer the world s superpower, which means that the current international system and its regional extensions is giving birth to new strategic formations including geostrategic ones in West Asia, which enjoys a long history of commercial and economic cooperation. Therefore, it is about time for pivotal states in West Asia to exert their influence on the regional and international levels as they have political, economic and strategic clout 12. Third: Areas of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia 1- At the Strategic Level The notion of cooperation between pivotal countries in West Asia is premised on new regionalism, a concept that started to emerge in the mid-1980s as a result of changes at t he global level, including the restructuring of the global political economy into three blocks: the European Union (EU), the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), and Asia and the Pacific Ocean, all of which are based on different forms of Capitalism. In addition, globalization began to play an important role in finance, production, trade and tec h nology. The new regional blocs have introduced comprehensive, multi-faceted and multi-dimensional processes that are changing heterogeneous areas into homogenous zones in terms of culture, security, political systems and economic policies. 14 Given the presence of regional economic and political frameworks with which some pivotal states are affiliated in West Asia, such as India s membership in the South Asian Associa t ion for Regional Cooperation (SAARC; established in 1985) and 12

Third: Areas of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia its membership along with some of the GCC countries in the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (Established in 1995 and approved in 2000), in addition to the establishment of the GCC in 1981, there is still a critical need for molding new frameworks for regional sustainable development and security in West Asia. Within this framework, the idea of establishing a regional forum for the Arabian Gulf states and West Asian countries can be floated. The forum would be similar to the regional forums in Asia where the emergence of the continent internationally was among the factors that reinforced non-centralization in the international order. Regionalism is often the result of the movements and tendencies of exchanging goods, people and ideas. Objectives of the Forum The forum aims to intensify security and economic cooperation between these countries while it fulfills the need to achieve two goals: I. Common Security - sometimes called cooperative security - intended to foster non-competitive behavior that allows antagonists to achieve security among themselves and not against one another. II. Promote interdependence, which means more complex economic arrangements between the parties in the region. 15 The principles of the proposed Forum 1- Respect of borders and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries. 2- Enhanced regional security through the reduction of non-conventional arms 3- Advantages for all. The success of the forum could be bolstered by the interest of pivotal countries in West Asia in promoting their strategic relations. The growing interest of India in recent years in the Gulf region has been well noted. This interest that can be referred to as India looking west of the Indian Ocean includes North Africa, the countries of the Fertile Crescent, the Arab Gulf States and Iran. The vision is built on economic and security interests that include India s endeavor to maintain the security of sea lanes in the Indian Ocean. As a large share of its trade passes through these passages, 13

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes India has sought to have numerous agreements of bilateral cooperation with the Arab Gulf states in the areas of security and economic domains and to broaden relations in the foreseeable future. 16 2- At the Security Level In light of the security challenges faced by the countries bordering the Indian Ocean, there is an urgent need to establish a system of maritime security in the region. There are two reasons that support such an initiative: (a) the dependence of trade routes in the Indian Ocean on the limited number of strategic international straits. Such a situation could represent a serious threat to the maritime trade routes and ultimately a threat to regional and global security alike. (b) The increasing speed and intensity of the arms race in the countries bordering the Indian Ocean, which means keeping the region in a state of permanent tension. 17 The Kingdom of Bahrain has had a significant role in achieving regional security in the Arabian Gulf. It has participated actively in the Combined Maritime Forces (CMF) which compromises 27 member nations. This coalition compromises three principle task forces: CTF-150 (maritime security and counter-terrorism), CTF-151 (counter piracy) and CTF-152 (Arabian Gulf security and cooperation). These are joint international forces with their command headquarters located in the Kingdom of Bahrain as part of the US Navy Fifth Fleet. Bahrain has twice command the CTF 152. 18 The forces are highly important in light of the security challenges confronting West Asian countries and that require mutual cooperation, which include illegal trade, smuggling and sea piracy. Estimates show that sea piracy costs the international community around $8 billion annually. Due to the gravity of piracy in the Indian Ocean region, the UN Security Council (UNSC) issued several resolutions in its regard between 2008 and 2012, notably Resolution 1816 which allows countries and various organizations to send naval forces to waters off the coasts of Somalia and the West Indian Ocean to combat piracy. In this context, India sent several ships to counter piracy. Reports indicate that piracy incidents fell in 2012 compared with 2011. 19 The proliferation of piracy in the Gulf of Aden has resulted in higher insurance fees on commercial vessels and consequently the reluctance of many ships to use the Bab el Mandeb - Suez passage and move instead towards the Cape of Good Hope, which means high shipping costs and an increase in the distance and time required on the arrival of the ships to their destination ports in Europe and the Americas. In 14

Third: Areas of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia 2010, the number of actual and attempted attacks on vessels reached 445, making it the height of piracy attacks since 2003. Figures show that 1,181 crew members were detained by pirates in the same year. This is the highest number of hostages since the beginning of piracy monitoring by the International Maritime Bureau in 1981. 20 3- At the Economic Level In light of the substantial intersection of economic interests, the proposed cooperation between West Asian countries would best be achieved through the revival of commercial and economic dimensions that existed between them, by developing a framework based on these countries economic competences. This is reflected by the following indicators: A. The GCC Countries - The GDP of the GCC countries as a percentage of global GDP increased by around 24% between 1999 and 2012. The Gulf economy currently represents 2% of the world economy 21 although the GCC population represents around 0.5% only of the world population 22. - International Gulf investments increased from $12 billion in 1999 to $350 billion in 2012, the most important of which are concentrated in oil importing countries. This has resulted in the current surplus in the commercial exchanges between the Gulf countries and major international parties. 23 - The GCC countries are considered a rising economic power as the Gulf sovereign wealth funds assume an increasing role in the world economy with the total value of their assets reaching $2 trillion in 2012. The following table highlights the total funds: 15

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Total Size of the Gulf Sovereign Funds in 2012 Country Sovereign Fund Name Abu Dhabi Investment Authority Assets $ Billion $627.00 UAE-Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Investment Company $58.00 UAE-Dubai KSA Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Total Mubadala Development Company Investment Corporation of Dubai Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency Kuwait Investment Authority Qatar Investment Authority Mumtalakat Holdings State General Reserve Fund $48.20 $70.00 $532.80 $296.00 $100.00 $9.10 $8.20 $1,749.30 Source: http://www.swfinstitute.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/swf-asset-allocation-2012sample_1.pdf Sovereign Wealth Fund Institute, 2012 B. India India s economy has undergone structural transformations following the economic reform programs implemented in the early 1970s. The average Indian GDP growth in the period from 1980 to 1991 was 5.1%, but reached around 6.7% in the period from 1992 to 2012 as a result of the economic liberalization program. This significant growth was reflected in the contribution of the Indian economy to the global economy, increasing from 2.5% in 1980 to 5.7% in 2012 24. - One of the features of growth of the Indian economy is the increase of the average external trade of India. In the period from 1997 to 2011, the size of exports increased from $33 billion to $251 billion and average imports increased from $39 billion to $370 billion 25. Based on the tangible economic achievements accomplished by the GCC countries and India, there are many dimensions of cooperation between the two sides, including: - A 1,500% increase in trade between India and the GCC in the period between 2001 and 2010 after total bilateral trade between the two sides - $5.6 billion in 2001 - rose to $88.8 billion in 2010. The GCC countries have become India s most important trade partner in 2010 as their trades represent 18% of India s total external trade 26. 16

Fourth: Current Changes in the GCC Countries: - The Indian labor force resident in the GCC exceeded 6 million in 2010 and international remittances of Indian laborers reached $55 billion in 2010, 30% of which was from GCC countries. Such labor contributed to various GCC developmental plans 27. Despite the above-mentioned facts, there is still a need to develop aspects of economic cooperation between the two sides including Gulf energy products, which represented around 40% of Indian imports in 2011, especially when considering that Indian demand for these products will grow over the coming years due to the increase in its population growth and the needs of India s industrial sector 28. The Indian economy still needs investments in infrastructure, which presents an opportunity for the GCC countries still looking for new foreign investment opportunities. There is no doubt that the agreement of the Gulf Ministerial Council in 2004 to enter into negotiations with the Indian government to establish a Free Trade Zone is a solid motivation towards developing economic and commercial relations between the two sides. In addition, estimates indicate that the trade value between the GCC countries and Pakistan will increase from $59 billion to $350 billion by 2020. Fourth: Current Changes in the GCC Countries At the Internal Level The GCC countries are undergoing political transformations mirrored in the discussions on social media channels widely used in the Arab region. This is a positive indicator as such a phenomenon precedes dynamism by the Gulf official institutions and in fact complements them. Despite the importance of the profound transformations in the region, the modernization and reform performed by the GCC countries are not necessarily a result of such transformations. For example, the problems witnessed by the Kingdom of Bahrain in early 2011, had no genuine causes within the context of the general political or economic conditions. Indeed, Bahrain has an elected parliament, a national action charter and a constitution, which are all pillars reflecting the level of political development in the Kingdom. It also includes mechanisms through which any popular demands can be met. When facing the 2011 crisis, Bahrain adopted the dialogue approach as the ideal solution for conflict resolution between the citizens of the same country. 17

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes In addition, the political system s openness to more development, in line with the National Action Charter, reflects its flexibility and ability for positive interaction with internal and external developments. In other words, policymakers in the Kingdom have realized early on the need to accommodate new changes being experienced by countries in their economic and social structures as a natural result of globalization. It should also be noted that foreign interference with its ideological extensions was not absent from the events of 2011. At the Regional Level The GCC countries witnessed two important developments at the cooperation and integration levels over the past two years: First: The new strategic trend of the GCC countries towards studying the Saudi King s proposal at the 2011 Gulf Summit to move from cooperation to union, which is considered an important step towards a balance of the regional powers. It will in fact be a reflection of the new status of the GCC countries at the regional and international levels. Second: The agreement of the leaders of the GCC countries at the Manama Summit 2012 to establish a unified military command to plan, coordinate and lead the allocated and additional land, air and naval forces in the GCC countries. This is considered a qualitative development in the field of military integration. Fifth: Principles and foundations of future cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia The current state of cooperation between the GCC countries, the West Asian countries in general and India does not reflect the size of common interests between them. This could be attributed to the limited official Indian interest in the GCC countries. Despite the numerous visits between India and the GCC, particularly between 2010 and 2012, (A total of 51 visits, including 31 visits from India to the GCC and 20 visits from the GCC to India), there were very few visits from state presidents, heads of governments and foreign ministers. In fact, there were two visits by state presidents, 17 visits by foreign ministers, one visit by the Bahraini Crown Prince to India and one visit by the UAE Vice-President to India. 29 18

Fifth: Principles and foundations of future cooperation between pivotal states in Western Asia At the same time, there is still a need for cooperation between pivotal states in Western Asia to solve the problems that threaten regional security and stability. They include: 1- Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons The GCC countries are concerned over a potential war in the region because of the Iranian nuclear issue. Therefore, the key blocs in West Asia should play an important role in urging Iran to interact positively with the international community regarding its nuclear ambitions. The main problem lies in Iran seeking the technology necessary for manufacturing nuclear weapons. Some reports indicate that Iran currently has about 240 kg of the 20 percent of enriched uranium necessary for making a nuclear bomb. In fact, modern nuclear bombs need less quantities of enriched uranium. The nuclear arms race between nuclear powers in West Asia raises huge concern for the GCC 30. 2- The Palestinian Conflict: With the launch of the peace process in the region and the development of communication between the Arabs and Israel, the Arab countries floated a peace initiative in 2002, but Israel rejected it. With the Oslo Accords on the verge of expiring, the region needed a new, sustainable understanding. Israel will not feel secure in the future if it does not endeavor to establish genuine negotiations with the Palestinian and Arab side to create a viable Palestinian State with Jerusalem as its capital, based on United Nations Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338. Israel has been, since its inception, isolated from its regional surroundings, especially with the Arab popular masses. If such tensions continue, the region will witness again a new bout of instability. Principles of future cooperation between West Asian countries: 1- Non-interference in the Internal Affairs of Other Countries It is necessary for the pivotal states in West Asia to reach a consensus on essential, internationally-accepted principles such as non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and not using religions to fuel extremism especially as the core of most religions is tolerance and moderation. 19

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Iran is an important country but it still has problems with the international community and regional countries. It seeks to interfere in the internal affairs of independent countries by creating organizations and militias in the heart of these states, often by exploiting circumstantial instability. Thus, the final communique of the December 2012 GCC summit in Manama included a clear message stating that GCC interaction with Iran would henceforth be different from the previous pattern, characterized by conventional methods of accommodation and maintaining common interests, if Tehran failed to put an end to its interference in the internal affairs of the GCC states 31. The main problem lies in Iran s foreign policy, which has persisted since 1979, with its focus more on ideological dimensions than on advancing regional interests. This has led to a vicious cycle of tension in Iran s relations with the region as well as with the international community. It is incumbent upon Iran to redefine its foreign policy and base it on reciprocal economic, social and political rather than historic, theocratic ideology. 32. 2- Cooperative Security instead of Strategic Security The pattern of strategic cooperation between West Asian countries must not rely on traditional patterns based on geostrategic influence and conventional and unconventional military power. There must be cooperation based on the exchange of common interests, especially in the areas of economy and commerce, which promotes peaceful coexistence between different cultures and communities. 3- The Presence of Durable Cooperative Frameworks These include security forums that can be held regularly to address West Asian security developments and discuss suitable responses. Such forums can be at both the official and unofficial levels. Sixth: Future of Change within West Asia At the Level of the GCC States 1- Internally: The GCC states are aware of the importance of continuing the political reform and modernization that was started several years ago, and which are not necessarily related to the current transformations in the Middle East. 20

Sixth: Future of Changes within West Asia Policymakers in the Gulf countries are fully aware of the ambitions of the present young generation, to which social and economic developments and globalization have largely contributed. Therefore, they strongly believe in the rights of young people to political participation and to involvement in the decision making process. However, such reforms and modernization must take place gradually, according to the Gulf s idiosyncrasies and based on national premises, away from any external agendas. 2- Externally: The GCC are looking into the Saudi King s 2011 proposal to move the GCC from the phase of cooperation to the phase of union, which they regard as an important strategic option. It will mark a stride forward in the Gulf s partnership, while at the same time it is a critical response to regional challenges. The charter establishing the GCC, as well as Article Four thereof, stated that integration and union are two of the GCC objectives. Therefore, implementing the proposal will represent the maturing of the Gulf integration vision and will reinforce the GCC states regional and international status. 3- Regionally: The GCC states believe it is imperative to have the Middle East, including the Arabian Gulf region, free of weapons of mass destruction as the proliferation of these weapons threatens regional and international security and peace alike. In this context, Iran must respond positively to the efforts of the international community to end the Iranian nuclear crisis peacefully. At the Level of Developments in West Asia The GCC states believe that there is close correlation between security in the Gulf region and that of the Indian Ocean. Therefore, the features of the Gulf vision for the development and the future of cooperation with West Asian countries are: 1- The GCC states seek broader relations with the pivotal states in West Asia, notably India, an important strategic partner. This calls for the development of mechanisms for a partnership between the two sides that reflects the economic weight of the GCC states and India s status as a rising economic power at both the Asian and international levels. 21

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes 2- The GCC states realize the importance of developing relations with Pakistan, especially at the strategic and economic levels. 3- The need for Afghanistan s government to establish security and stability following the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan in 2014 to prevent the growth of extremist groups in the future, a development that can threaten all West Asian countries as well as the Gulf region. 4- In light of reliance of Indian Ocean trading routes on a number of strategic international straits, maintaining maritime security must be one of the objectives of cooperation between pivotal states in West Asia especially in light of the growing security threats to waterways, most notably piracy. To recap, since countries endeavor to cooperate under the umbrella of regional organizations according to various principles and criteria, West Asian countries must consider new frameworks for cooperative security. Many principles, notably good-neighborly relations and coexistence, rely on geostrategic inputs, shared cultural heritage and confronting current security challenges. 22

Endnotes Endnotes (1.) Mohammed Al Saeed Idris, Study on the Principles of International and Regional Relations, Cairo, The Centre for Political and Strategic Studies, Al Ahram 2011, 61 (2.) Satish Kumar, The Post-Cold War International System: An Indian Perspective, http://www.idsa-india.org/an-sep-2.html (3.) The Thirteen Pillars, Business Monitor International Ltd, 2011 http://www. riskwatchdog.com/2011/02/07/the-thirteen-pillars/ (4.) Shawky Abdul Qawi Othman, The Indian Ocean trade under the the Islamic Rule, (Kuwait, Alam-Al-Marefa Series, No.151), 7, 8, 41, 55, 66, 124, 125 (5.) Farhat, Mohammed Fayez; The Gulf Cooperation Council and the Integration Process in the Indian Ocean: Towards a New Gulf Policy. (Abu Dhabi: The Emirates Centre for Strategic Studies and Research: Strategic Studies Series no.111 (2005)) Pages 9 & 10. (6.) See Energy Information Administration (EIA) website at http://www.eia.gov/ (7.) Robert Kaplan, Center Stage for the 21st Century: Rivalry in the Indian Ocean, Foreign Affairs, (March/April 2009) (8.) See US Presidential address at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ barackobama/9816372/barack-obama-inaugural-address-2013-full-text.html (9.) See US Treasury website at http://www.treasurydirect.gov/np/ BPDLogin?application=np (10.) International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2012. (11.) Zuhair Hamdi, Oil in US Politics, Qatar, The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies, (February 2013) 19 (12.) Karen Abul Kheir, Asia and the New World Order: International Politics, (Al-Ahram Centre for Political and Strategic Studies) (13.) Bjorn Hettne & Fredrik Soderbaum, The New Regionalism Approach, http://asrudiancenter.wordpress.com/2009/03/02/the-new-regionalismapproach/ 23

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes (14.) Ibid (15.) Martin Griffiths & Terry O Callaghan, International Relations: The Key Concepts, (Dubai, Gulf Research Center, 2001), 65, 84 (16.) Ginu Zacharia Oomen & Khurshid Imam, India s Look West Policy and Its Impact on India-GCC Relations, International Politics, Vol. 3, No. VI, (Summer & Autumn 2010) (17.) Farhat, 84 (18.) For more details on this coalition and its tasks, check the following link http://combinedmaritimeforces.com/about/ Also check http://www.cusnc.navy.mil/articles/2011/cmf001.html (19.) Abeer Abu Shamala, Sea Piracy and its Effect on Global Economy, (June 2012), at http://www.alkhaleej.ae/portal/f31d8e8c-f122-49c0-be33-a5f903311bf5.aspx (20.) Abduljalil Zaid Al Marhoon, Sea Piracy in the Indian Ocean and its Effects on Regional Security in the Arabian Gulf 2008-2012, (Strategic Views, The Emirates Center for Studies and Strategic Research, No. 1, December 2012), 80-82 (21.) World Economic Outlook Database, 2012, International Monetary Fund (22.) World Development Indicators Database 2012, World Bank (23.) World Economic Outlook Database, 2012, International Monetary Fund. (24.) Ibid. (25.) Kumaraswamy (2012). Persian Gulf 2012: India s Relations with the Region. Middle East Institute (New Delhi, 2012) (26.) Alpen Capital (2012). Trade and capital flows Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and India. (27.) Ibid. (28.) Kumaraswamy, opcit. 24

Appendix A (29.) Look at the table of the visits (Appendix A & B) (30.) Simon Henderson & Olli Heinonen, Technical Issues Overshadowing Iran Negotiations (PolicyWatch 1993) http://www.washingtoninstitute. org/policy-analysis/view/nuclear-iran-technical-issues-overshadowingnegotiations (31.) See the final communique at www.library.gcc-sg.org (32.) Mohammad Mahdi Nia, Holistic Constructivism: A Theoretical Approach to Understand Iran s Foreign Policy (Perceptions, Journal of International Affairs, Vol XV, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 2012), 1-41 25

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Appendix A Official Visits Between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and India in 2010 From India Country / Date From the GCC Date External Affairs Minister S. M. Krishna Union Human Resource Development Minister Kapil Sibal Bahrain February 2010 Bahrain October 2010 Kuwait Oil Minister Shaikh Ahmed Al Abdullah Al Sabah Kuwait September 2010 Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor Oman February 2010 Defence Minister A.K. Antony Oman May 2010 Commerce Minister Anand Sharma Oman September 2010 Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia Oman December 2010 Prime Minister Manmohan Singh Qatar February 2010 Renewable Energy Minister Farooq Abdullah Qatar March 2010 Minister of State for External Affairs Shashi Tharoor Saudi Arabia March 2010 Governor of Riyadh Prince Salman Ibn Abdulaziz Al Saud Saudi Arabia April 2010 Overseas Indian Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi Saudi Arabia September 2010 Commerce Minister Abdullah Zainal Ali Ridha Saudi Arabia November 2010 President Pratibha Devi Singh Patil UAE November 2010 Vice President & Ruler of Dubai, Shaikh Mohammed bin Rashed Al Maktoom UAE March 2010 26

Appendix B Appendix B Official Visits Between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and India in 2011 From India Country / Date From the GCC Date Overseas Indian Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi Overseas Indian Affairs Minister Vayalar Ravi Bahrain January 2011 Bahrain November 2011 Foreign Affairs Minister Shaikh Khalid bin Ahmed Al Khalifa Bahrain March 2011 External Affairs Minister S. M. Krisha Kuwait February 2011 Minister of State for Petroleum & Natural Gas & Corporate Affairs R P N Singh Kuwait April 2011 State Minister E. Ahamed Kuwait October 2011 State Minister E. Ahamed Oman June 2011 Commerce and Industry Minister Maqbool bin Ali bin Soltan Oman January 2011 Defence Minister A.K. Antony Oman December 2011 Defence Minister Sayyed Bader bin Said Al Bousaidi Oman December 2011 Civil Aviation Minister Praful Patel Qatar January 2011 State Minister for Foreign Affairs Khalid bin Mahmood Al Atiyyah Qatar January 2011 State Minister E. Ahamed Qatar June 2011 State Minister for International Cooperation Qatar January 2011 State Minister E. Ahamed Qatar November 2011 Finance and Economy Minister Youssef Kamal Qatar March 2011 National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon Qatar December 2011 Energy and Industry Minister Mohammed bin Saleh Al Sada Qatar October 2011 State Minister E. Ahamed Qatar December 2011 27

Potential Strategic Cooperation Between Pivotal States in West Asia in Light of Current Changes Oil Minister S. Japial Reddy Qatar December 2011 Oil Minister S. Japial Reddy Saudi Arabia February 2011 Economy and Planning Minister Khalid bin Mohammed Al Qasaibi Saudi Arabia February 2011 External Affairs Minister S.M Krishna Chairperson of the Haj Committee of India ohsina Kidwai Saudi Arabia March 2011 Haram Mosque Shaikh Abdulrahman Al Sudais Saudi Arabia March 2011 State Minister E. Ahamed Saudi Arabia April 2011 Secretary General of National Security Council Prince Bandar bin Sultan Saudi Arabia March 2011 National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon Saudi Arabia December 2011 Foreign Minister Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan UAE June 2011 Deputy Prime Minister and Interior Minister Shaikh Said bin Zayed Al Nahyan UAE November 2011 28

Appendix C Appendix C Official Visits Between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and India in 2012 From India Country / Date From the GCC Date Crown Prince Shaikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa Bahrain May June 2012 State Minister E. Ahamed Qatar March 2012 Emir Shaikh Hamad bin Khalifa Al Thani Qatar April 2012 Defence Minister A.K. Antony Saudi Arabia February 2012 External Affairs Minister S. M. Krisha UAE April 2012 Foreign Minister Shaikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan UAE May 2012

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