Environmental Stress, Natural Disasters and Conflicts in Pakistan Titelmasterformat durch Klicken bearbeiten Presented by: Ahsan Saleem Khan MSc ICSS, University of Hamburg Seminar Climate and Society, 18 January 2012
Overview Geography of Pakistan Climate and Topography Climate Change in Pakistan Water Security Agriculture Natural Disasters Conflicts in Pakistan
Geography Of Pakistan Total covered area: 796,095 km 2 Water %: 3.1 Population: 177,100,000 approx Density: 214.3/km 2 Growth Rate: 1.6% Major Religion: Islam 97% Boundaries: North-West Afghanistan 2430 km East India 2912 km North China 523 km West Iran 909 km South ArabianSea1046km
Topography and Climate The country has a long latitudinal extent stretching from the Arabian Sea in the south to the Himalayan mountains in north. It is located in sub-tropics and partially in temperate region. Climatologically, most parts of Pakistan are arid to semi-arid with significant spatial and temporal variability in climatic parameters 59% of the annual rainfall is due to monsoon rains. Greater Himalayan region above 35 N receives winter precipitation mostly in the form of snow. The snow melt contribution keeps the rivers flowing throughout the year.
Climate Change in Pakistan {observed trends} The area averaged mean annual temperature over Pakistan increased by 0.57 C over the period 1901-2009. The area averaged mean annual precipitation over Pakistan increased by 25% since 1965. 3-5% decrease in cloud cover in central Pakistan with increase in sunshine hours. Frequency of extreme events such as heavy rain, flash floods, dust/thunder/hailstorms, heat waves, density and persistence of fog is on rise. Table: Frequency of occurrence of Highest Daily Temperature and Heaviest 1-day Precipitation events during different decades (1971-2010) Period 1971-80 1981-90 1991-2000 2001-2010 No. of stations with highest daily temperature No. of stations with highest daily precipitation 4 12 16 20 6 18 21 27
PAKISTAN S STATUS AS A GHG EMITTER Pakistan is a very low GHG emitter. Pakistan s contribution to the total global GHG emissions is a miniscule (about 0.8%) and its per capita GHG emissions stand at a level which corresponds to about one-third of the world average. Pakistan was thus ranked at 135th place on the basis of its per capita GHG emissions. Figure: Sectoral Shares in GHG Emissions in 1993-94 and 2007-08
Water Security There are six main rivers flowing through Pakistan. None of them originates in Pakistan. These rivers are suffering the impacts of climate Change which are: Less snowfall, slow deposits & glacierization Reduced river flows Reduction in storage of water in dams Less rainfall in arid areas, prolonged droughts Pakistan has one of the largest irrigation system which is dependent on canals taken out from these rivers.
Water Security Water Availability Situation Gross per capita water availability in Pakistan will decline from ~1350 m3/yr In 2001 to as low as ~858 m3/yr in 2025.
Agriculture Largest sector of the economy (24% of GDP) 68% population is rural which directly or indirectly depends on agriculture Industries almost entirely Agro-based >80% exports Agro-based Predominantly depends on Irrigation Major crops: Wheat Rice Sugarcane Maize Water shortage will have worst impact on agriculture which will directly effect the economy
Water Conflict
Natural Disasters
Earthquake Oct 8 th 2005 A silent night followed by a deadly morning, for thousands, it continued forever Sarah James(UNOCHA) The 7.6-magnitude earthquake took place on Saturday 8th October at 0825 local time The strongest earthquake to hit the region in a century. It was followed by 20 powerful aftershocks. Three generations wiped out in 33seconds 87,350 deaths, 138,000 injured, 3.5M homeless Around 500,000 affected families Children made up half the population of the affected area and were particularly vulnerable, UNICEF has said.
Flash Floods July 2010
Problems In Effected Regions Infrastructure Collapsed Financial destability Food scarcity Diseases outbreak Societal unrest Lawlessness Increasing crime rates Under these conditions people are forced to migrate
Climate Risk Index for 2012
Migration and Internal Displacements History of Migrations in Pakistan Afghan War 1979 {Approximately 4 million Afghans flooded into Pakistan} 2 nd Afghan War after 9/11 {Approximately 1.7 million} Between 2005-2007 almost 500,000 people were caught in the middle of war between Taliban and Pakistani forces on Afghan border Regions. By the end of 2009 heavy military attack was launched in Swat region against terrorists which resulted in displacement of around 1200,000 people (70% resettled) According to Government and UN`s sources, after the flood of 2010 the combined number of displaced people inside Pakistan exceeded 20 million.
Impacts of Migrations Population stress in large cities Increasing Stress on resources (water, natural gas, electricity supply) Social differences, ethnic divides Cheap labor, big concern for local residents Weak law and order situation Threat of increasing crime rates Clashes for identity
Conflicts due to Migration Karachi (Largest city of Pakistan) Karachi is the largest city of Pakistan and 7 th most densely populated city of world Population in 2010 exceeded 20million More than 60% people are migrants and its increasing rapidly due to economic destability in other regions. Contributes almost 70% to the economy of country Large ethnic groups active in city with strong political backing. Religious Sectarianism is on peak
Conflicts due to Migration Karachi (Largest city of Pakistan) More than 200 people killed in ethnic and mafia clashes during violence in August and September 2011 Highest crime rate in the country But after all this still more and more people are moving to Karachi, this shows people have no other choice.
War On Terror Facts Pakistan is main ally of US in war against terror in Afghanistan. But with the passage of time war is shifting towards Pakistan. Increasing civilian causalities and in terrorist attacks and also in military operations. Approximately 30,000 people have been killed inside Pakistan since the Afghan war started. 10,000 people were killed in 2009 only Over 700 innocent civilian people killed in American drone attacks in north Pakistan (90% of all deaths) Consequences Public outrage against Government Policies Increasing hatred against US Some of the affected turning towards terrorism due to frustration Pakistan paying price of US deeds Worst economic impacts Foreign Investments almost vanished Brain Drain Political destability Social unrest Negative image of country and nation in world 90 students of under age of 18 were killed in a drone attack on a religious school
Question How can the environmental problems be addressed in such conditions? What measures should the Government take to tackle these conflicts?