Figure 1. : Recent Fiscal Developments Strong revenue growth combined with subdued capital spending kept the budget in surplus the past years. Fiscal Performance Revenue Capital expenditure 1 Current expenditure Overall balance 1 As a result, s public debt has been trending down. In July 1, government deposits stood at NRs 17 billion. Public Debt Central bank overdraft ((-) indicates deposit) Domestic debt External debt Net public debt 1 1 3 3-9/1 1/11 11/1 1/13 Note: Overall balance: incurrence of net liabilities (incl. government deposits at NRB). 13/1 1/1 1/1-1 -1 3/ / / /7 7/ /9 Sources: i authorities; and IMF staff estimates 9/1 1/11 11/1 1/13 13/1 1/1 1/1 1-1 Government revenues over the past 3 months are up 11 percent from a year ago, when the trade disruption severely curtailed imports. Government Revenue 1 11 1 9 7 3 1-1 - -3 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Total revenue (y/y change in 3mma) Total revenue (annual average change) Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Housing grants and other current spending pushed spending in the past 3 months up by percent compared to the same period a year ago. Government Spending 1 1 1 1 1 - Dec- Dec-9 Current and capital spending (annual average change) Current and capital spending (y/y change in 3mma) Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 1 1 1 1 1 - Budget execution rates, though higher than in previous years for current spending, remain low for capital spending. Budget Execution Rate (in percent) 1 9 7 3 1 Jul/Aug Aug/Sept Sept/Oct 1/13 - Recurrent 1/13 - Capital 1/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Capital 13/1 - Capital 13/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Recurrent 1/1 - Capital 1/17 - Recurrent 1/17 - Capital Oct/Nov Nov/Dec Dec/Jan Jan/Feb Feb/Mar Mar/Apr Apr/May May/Jun Jun/Jul 1 9 7 3 1 Net of the increase in domestic borrowing, the government accumulated NR 9 bn (.7 percent of GDP) at the NRB during the first months of the fiscal year. Cash Accumulation in the Treasury (In billions of i Rupees, change since start of the FY) 1 1 1 11/1 1/13 13/1 1/1 1/1 1/17 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Note: Increase in government deposits at the NRB plus decline in domestic debt.
Figure. : Recent External Sector Developments Remittances are showing resilience. They amounted to US$ million in November and during the past 3 months they were up 9 percent from a year ago. Remittances 7 Monthly flow (in millions of U.S. dollars, RHS) Y/Y change in 3mma (in percent) Y/Y change in HP filtered series (in percent) 3 1-1 Nov-9 Nov-1 Imports are up 137 percent from a year ago. The recovery of exports is slower. Private sector credit growth, at ½ percent in November (y/y), is at a ½-year high. 7 3 1-1 Meanwhile, the outflow of migrant workers during the past 3 months was 9 percent smaller than a year ago. Foreign Employment 1 1 - - - Nov-9 Monthly Flow (thousands of persons, RHS) Y/Y change in 3mma (in percent) Y/Y change in HP filtered series (in percent) Nov-1 The balance of payments data suggests that oil import volumes so far this fiscal year are 3 percent higher than in the year before the earthquakes and trade disruption. 3 1-1 - -3 Trade and Private Sector Credit (Growth, in percent) 1 Exports (y/y change in 3mma) 1 Imports (y/y change in 3mma) 1 Private Sector Credit (y/y) - - - Nov-9 Nov-1 1 1 1 - - - Oil Import Volume (Millions of barrels) 3. 3... 1. 1... Aug 1/13 13/1 1/1 1/1 1/17 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul The recovery of imports raised the trade deficit but remittances continue to support the current account. Central bank reserves (including gold and SDR holdings) remained at a high of US$. billion in mid-november. Current Account Balance (In millions of US dollars) 7 Trade Deficit (3mma) Remittances (3mma) Current Account Balance (3mma) 3 1 Central Bank Gross Official Reserves 1 Reserves in billions of U.S. dollars 1 Reserves in months of prospective imports 1 1-1 Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-9 Nov-1
3 Figure 3. : Recent Monetary Developments Reserve money expanded by. percent (y/y) in November as the growth of central bank NFA moderated. Central Bank Balance Sheet (In percent, contribution to reserve money growth) Net claims on government Other net domestic assets 7 Net foreign assets Reserve money growth (y/y) 3 1-1 - -3 - - Nov-9 Nov-1 Inflation decelerated to. percent (y/y) in November, an ½-year low. Food price inflation fell to a multi-year low of. percent. Consumer Price Inflation (Percent change, year-on-year) 1 Non-food items (contribution to headline CPI) 1 Food items (contribution to headline CPI) Non-food CPI (y/y) Headline CPI (y/y) 7 3 1-1 - -3 - - 1 1 Credit to the private sector is the key driver of the 19 percent (y/y) increase in broad money (M) in November. Broad Money Growth (In percent, contribution to broad money growth) 3 Net claims on government Other net domestic assets 3 Net foreign assets Private sector credit M growth 1 1 - -1 As a result, the inflation wedge with narrowed to a -year low of 1. percentage points. Consumer Prices in and (Percent change, year on year) 1 1 1 3 3 1 1 - -1 1 1 1 : Headline CPI (y/y) : Headline CPI (y/y) Nov-9 Nov-1 Nov-9 Nov-1 Sources: i authorities, Haver analytics; and IMF staff estimates. The REER is 13 percent above the 1-1 average. Exchange Rates 1 13 1 11 1 9 (+) Appreciation REER index (1=1) NEER index (1=1) USD per 1 NRs (RHS) 1. 1.3 1. 1.1 1..9 Stock prices are down percent from the July peak but are still up 3 percent from a year ago. Stock Market Performance in and (Mid-July 7=1) 3 1 1 NEPSE Index NEPSE index, commercial banks Bombay Stock Exchange (SENSEX 3) 7 (-) Depreciation..7 Nov-1 Dec- Dec-9 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Dec-1 Sources: i authorities; and IMF staff estimates
Figure. : Economic Growth, Human Development, Remittances, and Exports The growth of real GDP (at market prices) is estimated to s growth has lagged peers and per capita GDP have slowed to. percent in 1/1 due to the remains lower than in other Asian countries. earthquakes and trade disruption. 1, 1,,,,, Per Capita GDP (PPP) (In current international dollars) 1 Mongolia Vietnam Source: World Bank, WDI Database. Lao P.D.R. Cambodia Poverty declined to percent of the population in 1/11. It is higher in rural and mountainous areas. 7 3 1 Poverty rate, 199/9-1/11 (In percent of the population) National Urban Rural Mountainous 199/9 3/ 1/11 Source: Central Bureau of Statistics. The decline in poverty is reflected in an improvement in s UNDP Human Development Index...7....3..1. Human Development Index (HDI) (Index number) Mongolia Lao P.D.R. HDI, 1 Cambodia Source: UNDP, Human Development Report 1. Average HDI (19-1) Myanmar..7....3..1. Compared to other countries, has high remittances. But s exports have been growing slower than GDP. Inflows of Remittances, Selected Countries, 1 3 3 1 1 Sources: World Bank, Remittances Data; IMF, World Economic Outlook. Note: Observation for is for 1/1. 1 9 7 3 1 Exports of Goods and Services 199-99 average -9 average 1 1 China Sources: World Economic Outlook; and IMF staff estimates. Vietnam LIC median
Table 1. : Monthly Data for Key Macroeconomic Indicators. 1 1 Year-on-year change, in percent Sep Oct Nov Dec FY to date Sep Oct Nov Dec FY to date Sep Oct Nov Dec FY to date (1/1) (1/17) 1 (1/17) Inflation (end of period, in percent) 7.. 1. 7.9.7. Imports (in US$ m) 3 7 1,33 3,1 9 17 1 Non-oil imports (in US$ m) 7 1 1 1,13 7,17 1 19 1 Oil imports (in US$ m) 9 1 1 1 7 7 9 33 9 3 33 Exports (in US$ m) 39 197 7 1 7 3 31 1 Remittances (in US$ m) 1, 7 3,17 1-1 Flow of migrant workers (thousands) 3 3 137 3 31 1-1 -3 33 - Government revenue (in NR bn) 3 3 17 113 1 9 79 99 1 9 Government expenditure (in NR bn) 11 33 9 1 37 193 1 33 33 11 Current expenditure (in NR bn) 1 31 17 3 7 9 17 3 13 31 1 1 Capital expenditure (in NR bn) 3 3 9 9 3 3 7 1 1 1 1 Year-on-year change, in percent Stocks Flow Stocks Flow 1 Flow Sep Oct Nov FY to date Sep Oct Nov FY to date Sep Oct Nov Fiscal year (1/1) (1/17) (1/17) Central bank reserves (in US$ m) 7,339 7, 7,797 3,9,,31 7 1 13 11 Credit to the private sector (in NR bn) 1,397 1,1 1,19 1,7 1,7 1, 13 9 19