Natural disasters, sea-level rise and environmental migration Jürgen Scheffran Institute of Geography, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg Climate and Society Lecture 6, November 28, 2013 p. 1
28.11. Natural disasters, sea-level rise and environmental migration Question: What are the risks of extreme weather events and natural disasters? Will climate change lead to environmental migration? Recommended readings: Sections 6.5, 6.6 of: WBGU 2007. World in Transition Climate Change as a Security Risk, German Advisory Council on Global Change, Berlin: Springer, http://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_jg2007.html Background material (optional): Global Climate Risk Index 2014, Germanwatch, November 2013, http://www.germanwatch.org/klima/cri.htm IPCC, Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX), http://ipcc-wg2.gov/srex/ R. Black, et al. (2011) Migration and Global Environmental Change: Future Challenges and Opportunities, Foresight, London; http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight/our-work/projects/current-projects/globalmigration/reports-publications. p. 2
Complex feedbacks and loops in climate-society interaction Natural resources water land ecosystems biodiversity marine resources non-renewables sustainability stress Climate system temperature precipitation extreme weather ice cover ocean currents sea level Environmental vulnerability Climate sensitivity adaptation impact development adaptive capacity resilience risk mitigation Human vulnerability Conflict sensitivity Human security water food energy health income livelihood framing response Societal stability political events migration violence conflict cooperation institutions Source: Scheffran et al, Climate Change and Violent Conflict, Science, 18 May 2012 p. 3
Storm and flood disasters in climate hotspots Source: WBGU 2007 p. 4
What is a disaster? Disaster: a situation or event which overwhelms local capacity, necessitating a request to a national or international level for external assistance; an unforeseen and often sudden event that causes great damage, destruction and human suffering Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) p. 5
Disaster and crisis Source: Walker 2009 p. 6
Source: Vital Signs p. 72013
Numbers killed and affected by certain types of natural disasters (1979-2008) p. 8
Percentage distribution of natural disasters (1980-2011) Source: Vital Signs 2013 p. 9
Source: Vital Signs p. 10 2013
World Map of the Global Climate Risk Index 1993-2012 Source: Germanwatch and Munich Re NatCatSERVICE Global Climate Risk Index 2014 http://germanwatch.org/en/7659 p. 11
Long-Term Climate Risk Index in the 10 most affected countries (1993 to 2012) Global Climate Risk Index 2014 p. 12
Globale Climate Risk Index for 2012: the 10 most affected countries Global Climate Risk Index 2014 p. 13
Global Climate Risk Index 2014: Key messages Honduras, Myanmar and Haiti were the countries affected most by extreme weather events between 1993 and 2012. From the ten most affected countries (1993 2012) eight were developing countries in the low-income or lower-middle income country group, while two belong to the upper-middle income countries. Altogether more than 530,000 people died as a direct result of approx. 15,000 extreme weather events, and losses between 1993 and 2012 amounted to more than 2.5 trillion USD (in PPP; USD 1.75 trillion overall losses in original values). In 2012, Haiti, the Philippines and Pakistan led the list of the most affected countries. The 2012 droughts and floods in large areas of the Balkan, eastern Europe and southern Russia in the aftermath of the unparalleled 2010 wildfires have proven the climate vulnerability of the region that hosts the 2013 Climate Change Conference (COP 19 in Warsaw). Source: Global Climate Risk Index 2014 p. 14
Selection of record-breaking meteorological events since 2000 Global Climate Risk Index 2014 p. 15
Selection of record-breaking meteorological events since 2000 Global Climate Risk Index 2014 p. 16
Costliest Natural Catastrophes in 2011 p. 17
Indus flood extent and losses 2010 Source: OCHA 2010, The State of Environmental Migration 2010 p. 18
The vulnerable USA Hurricane Katrina p. 19
Flooding in Central Europe 2013 p. 20
Typhoon Haiyan Phillippines 2013 Strongest storm recorded at landfall Unofficially fourth strongest typhoon recorded in terms of wind speed. Estimated damages were more than 500 million dollars http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article- 2501471/Philippines-Typhoon-Haiyan-Bodies-piledstreets-makeshift-mortuaries-overrun.html p. 21
Climate change and disaster risk Climate change increases frequency of extreme weather events: Risk of damage to property and infrastructure also rises. Insurance companies will need to significantly increase the amount of capital they hold to be able to provide insurance cover at a level comparable to today. Given an increase in storm intensity of 6 per cent as predicted by many climate models for a rise in temperature of around 3 C, the capital requirement of insurers for hurricanes in the USA would have to increase by more than 90 per cent (Association of British Insurers, cited in Stern 2006). It is foreseeable that the insurance market will grow, whereby premiums for insuring against climate-related losses are likely to rise and certain risks will increasingly be classed as no longer insurable (IPCC 2007b). p. 22
Tropical cyclone risk to urban agglomerations Source: WBGU 2007 p. 23
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Past data and future projections of global-mean sea level rise for RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) scenarios Source: IPCC 2013, AR5-WG1 p. 25
Vulnerability of river deltas to sea-level rise Source: IPCC 2007 p. 26
Social and economic impacts of rising sea levels Source: Human Decvelopment Report 2007 p. 27
Population, land area and GDP as a function of elevation above mean sea level (based on 1995 data) p. 28
Urban coastal flood risk Black et al. 2011 p. 29
Storm and flood disasters with destabilizing and conflict-inducing consequences Source: Carius et al 2006, WBGU 2007 * In these cases, disasters led to an intensification of existing tensions. p. 30
Climate-induced increase in storm and flood disasters Source: WBGU 2007 p. 31
Migration as a conflict constellation in climate hotspots Source: WBGU 2007 p. 32
World refugees p. 33
Growth of large cities Atlas der Globalisierung 2009 p. 34
The debate on climate change and migration Maximalist school : projects high numbers of people affected by environmental change and forced to move due to climate change Estimates range from 25-50 million up to 1 billion Minimalist school : critical approach towards exaggeration Difficult to isolate environmental factors from other migration drivers Multicausal and complex nature of migration requires more sophisticated models to deal with causes and consequences Climate refugees: threats, victims or actors? No internationally accepted definitions Constructive approach (adaptation, networks, remittances) p. 35
Environmental migration as a conflict issue? Source: Bhattacharyya/Werz 2012 p. 36
Threat perceptions and conflict potentials of environmental migration Public debate affected by alarmism Perception of fear against immigrants leads to defensive reactions, emergency responses and focus on symptoms. In 2011 the EU invested several hundred million Euro into border protection. About 2000 people were drowned 2011 in the attempt to cross the Mediterranean. Direct migration: Environmental change region A Migration from A Conflict region B Indirect migration: Environmental change region A Conflict region A Migration from A Conflict region B p. 37
Impact of climate change on movement of people Possible causes of environmental migration (Source: IOM 2009): 1. the intensification of natural disasters; 2. increased warming and drought that affects agricultural production and access to clean water; 3. rising sea levels make coastal areas uninhabitable and increase the number of sinking island states. (44% of the world s population lives within 150 kilometers of the coast); 4. competition over natural resources may lead to conflict and displacement. Poverty, violence, injustice and social insecurity can increase climateinduced stress and pressure for displacement. European Commission (2008): Europe must be prepared to a substantially increased migration pressure. WBGU (2007): climate-induced migration one of the biggest future conflicts in international politics, especially in regional hot spots. IPCC Special Report (2012): Future climate extremes have large impacts on migration. p. 38
Environmental factors to move Factors Area affected Intensity of environmental change Speed of change Who is affected in society Capacity and choice Difference between source region and target region p. 39
Drivers of migration Black et al. 2011 p. 40
Influence of variables on migration post-natural disaster (results from empirical studies) Source: IOM 2009, pp.280-281 p. 41
Influence of variables on migration post-natural disaster Source: IOM 2009, pp.280-281 p. 42
Trapped populations Double risk: Impoverished people are unable to move away from environmental threats, and their lack of capital makes them especially vulnerable to environmental changes. p. 43
Definitions of environmental refugees/migrants Refugees in the 1951 Geneva Convention: protect individual refugees who flee their country because of state-led persecution. Environmental migrants are persons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive changes in the environment that adversely affect their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily or permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad (IOM, MC/INF/288 2007) Environmentally Displaced Persons (EDPs) applies to people who would fall into one of the following three categories (EACH-FOR 2009): Environmental migrants chose to move voluntarily from their usual place of residence primarily due to environmental concerns or reasons; Environmental displaced are forced to leave their residence, because their lives, livelihoods and welfare are at risk to adverse environmental processes and events; Development displaced: intentional relocated/resettled for planned land use change. Climate refugees have to leave their habitat, immediately or near future, due to sudden or gradual alterations in the natural environment related to at least one of three climate impacts: sea-level rise, extreme weather, drought and water scarcity (Biermann 2009). No internationally accepted definition of environmental and climate migrants Environmental impact on migrant hard to determine p. 44
Migration-related intiatives 2010 Cancún Adaptation Framework Promotes measures to enhance understanding, coordination and cooperation with regard to climate change induced displacement, migration and planned relocation. Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement 2011 Nansen Principles on climate change and displacement UN High Commissioner for Refugees deliberations on climate change and displacement p. 45
Recommendations on climate-induced migration Recognises problem of climate change-induced migration Channel adaptation funding to climate change-induced migrants for adaptation measures in climate change hot spots, including resettlement Enhance the resilience and coping capacity of the local population, reducing the need for migration. Enhance people s adaptive capacity (social capital) and resilience to weather and climate variability. Migration as a legitimate adaptation option p. 46
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Foresight Report: Key conclusions Environmental change will affect migration, specifically through influence on economic, social and political drivers which themselves affect migration. Due to the range and complexity of the interactions between drivers it is rarely possible to distinguish environmental migrants from others. Powerful economic, political and social drivers mean that migration is likely to continue regardless of environmental change. People are as likely to migrate to places of environmental vulnerability as from these places, e.g. people living in floodplains in urban areas. The impact of environmental change on migration will increase in the future, threatening people s livelihoods, and a traditional response is to migrate. Environmental change will alter populations exposure to natural hazards, and migration is often the only response. p. 48
Foresight Report: Key conclusions Cities in low-income countries are faced with a double jeopardy : they grow in size and are threatened by global environmental change. Preventing rural urban migration is no solution for those trapped in vulnerable rural areas. Action is required to build urban infrastructure that is sustainable, flexible and inclusive. The cost of inaction is likely to be higher than the costs of actions that reduce the likelihood of problematic displacement and prevent a much worse and more costly situation in the future. Actions should reduce the impact of environmental change on communities and plan for migration, offering opportunities as well as challenges Migration can represent a transformational adaptation to environmental change, and in many cases will be an extremely effective way to build long-term resilience, maximising benefits to the individual in source and destination communities. Migration in the face of global environmental change may not be just part of the problem but can also be part of the solution. p. 49
From climate insecurity to social resilience Resilient communities will be able to cope with stress and retain its qualitative structure. Capacity to withstand shocks and surprises and, if damaged, to rebuild itself. Whether resilience can be maintained depends on the strength and size of the change, and the relative capacity of the community to cope with the change. In a resilient social environment, the social actors are able to cope with and withstand the disturbances caused by environmental change in a dynamic and flexible way that preserves, rebuilds, or transforms their social order to retain their livelihood. Concepts of resilience can strengthen the social capability of people in their creative and collective efforts to handle the problems associated with climate change. Resilience strategies include the building of networks, the cultivation of diversity and the maintenance of flexibility. p. 50
Framework for integrating migration into community adaptation to climate change Exposure Climate Change Exposure Resources Resources Capability Community Income Security Risks Income Remittances Migrants Community Capability Migrants Source: Scheffran/Marmer/Sow 2012 Remittances Receiving Region Livelihood Vulnerability Action paths Technology Investment Social networks Migration Social capital Investment Technology Action paths Vulnerability Livelihood Sending Region Knowledge Technology Knowledge Resilience Adaptation Technology Consumption Conflict resolution Adaptation Resilience Markets Consumption Innovation Sustainability Co-development Institutions Markets Policies Policies p. 51
The climate adaptation-migration relationship 1. Community adaptation: Strengthen adaptive capacity and social resilience of communities affected by climate stress through improved capabilities, livelihoods and institutions. 2. Migration as adaptation: Where communities are threatened despite efforts for local adaptation and protection, migration is a legitimate adaptive measure. 3. Migration for adaptation: new opportunities, resources and networks of migrants in host regions can support adaptation in home regions (e.g. know how, remittances, return migration) 4. Co-development: Interregional institutional support for mutual exchange in key resources and factors (investment, technology, energy, resources, people, knowledge,...) Innovative approaches and institutional settings for a constructive relationship between climate adaptation and migration. p. 52
Environmentally induced migration and intervening factors and strategies (phase 1) Source: WBGU 2007 p. 53
Source: WBGU 2007 p. 54