2 nd IEEJ / APERC Join International Energy Symposium Global Governance, Energy, and the Middle East Koichiro Tanaka @Graduate School of Media and Governance, Keio University @JIME Center, Institute of Energy Economics, Japan June 1, 2018 1
Overview of Prevailing Conditions Surge of geopolitical developments across the Middle East Brisk Concurrent Unsolved and kinetic Dysfunction of traditional organizations Enhanced assertiveness of regional actors Policy inconsistencies of the US The Russians are coming But, where are the Chinese? 2
A Chaotic Middle East Question of economic stability since the fall of oil prices Social and economic challenges of the Youth Bulge Abundance of civil wars across the region Political instability and deterioration of state governance Sheer rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran Growing authoritarian tendencies of certain regional governments: Egypt and Turkey Renewed focus on geopolitical chokepoints: Bab al Mandeb Straits, Red Sea, and the Horn of Africa 3
Global Governance in the Region (1) Performance Evaluation Poor/Failure Challenges andissues Eradicating radical extremism Defusing tension amongst regional actors Deescalating conventional weapons arms race Deterring usage of chemical weapons/agents Preventing outbreak of civil wars Curtailing exodus of refugees and humanitarian crises Addressing social and economic disparity Optimizing energy consumption and reducing GHG emissions 4
2016 ranking PM2.5 Mean Annual Exposure 1990 ranking Country 2016 1990 10 6 g/m 3 10 6 g/m 3 2 5 Saudi Arabia 188 85 3 2 Qatar 148 108 5 7 Egypt 126 76 8 15 Kuwait 111 65 10 8 United Arab Emirates 105 74 17 17 Bahrain 80 63 19 13 Oman 78 66 20 23 Sudan 78 57 24 31 Iraq 73 51 24 27 Yemen 73 54 30 24 Libya 64 57 Source: World Bank. 5
2014 ranking CO 2 Emissions (metric tons per capita) 1990 ranking Country 2014 emission 1990 emission 1 5 Qatar 45.4 24.7 4 6 Kuwait 25.2 24.3 5 4 Bahrain 23.4 25.1 6 1 United Arab Emirates 23.3 28.0 8 16 Saudi Arabia 19.5 11.4 14 45 Oman 15.4 6.3 28 31 Libya 9.2 8.3 38 61 Islamic Republic of Iran 8.3 3.7 40 33 Israel 7.9 7.8 70 72 Iraq 4.8 2.7 Source: World Bank. 6
Global Governance in the Region (2) Performance Evaluation Fair Good Superb Challenges andissues Securing nuclear non proliferation, so far (with the exception of Israel) Averting serious disruption of energy production and catastrophic impact on global supply n.a. 7
Air Pollution in the Middle East Source: Air Quality Index. As of 04:00 zulu, May 28, 2018. 8
Middle East and Energy Development Lingering doubts over regional stability will likely hamper timely and sustained investment in the energy sector Global climate change could force accelerated decarbonization drive in major consumer economies With Trumpism unleashed today in the Middle East, chances of maintaining a less troublesome status quo is diminishing extensively Likeliness of Middle East oil & gas producers facing a turbulent era 9
Forthcoming Challenges in the Region Impact of US unilateral withdrawal from JCPOA Absence of a workable Plan B Possibility of China and others backfilling the gap Unleashing the traditional moderate Sunni Arabs Assertive nature of the Saudi security policy UAE crosscutting the Arabian Peninsula Battleground Syria Resolve of Israel on Syria and Lebanon Determination of Iran to consolidate its foothold in Syria Russia s increasing role and presence Securing forward bases in Syria Sponsoring the Astana Process Dealing arms with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt 10
Japan s Possible Role in the Middle East Technical assistance Traditional approach Strategic partnership and collaboration Industrial modernization Investment promotion Recent additions Universal de carbonization Regional mediation Extended role Security cooperation Suggesting foreign policy moderation 11 Contact :report@tky.ieej.o