Education Policies and Migration across European Countries

Education Policies and Migration across European Countries Ainhoa Aparicio-Fenoll and Zoë Kuehn Collegio Carlo Alberto and Universidad Autónoma de Madrid Giorgio Rota Conference Turin, June 20th 2016 Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 1 / 27

Motivation Low migration across EU countries Free movement of labor is a fundamental right in the EU. But migration across European countries remains very limited. Annual migration rates across EU countries around 0.3% compared to US state-to-state migration rates of around 2.4% (OECD, 2010). Huge differences in youth unemployment rates among countries of the European Union. Spain and Greece with almost 50%, Croatia and Portugal with 35-50%, to Netherlands with less than 10%. US youth unemployment rates (2011): 7.8%(ND) - 25.8%(RI). Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 2 / 27

Motivation Potential explanations: Different languages Variety of national languages and mobility Unlike in the US, languages spoken across EU countries differ. Different languages limit transferability of human capital. Foreign language skills reduce problems of transferability: Language skills are an important determinant of success in the host country labor market; see Chiswick and Miller (2010) and Dustman and Fabbri (2003). Language skills also improve labor market prospects in the home country. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 3 / 27

Motivation Potential explanations: Educational attainment Educational attainment and mobility U-shaped pattern in education and migration for European countries. Larger fraction of individuals with medium/secondary education in European countries than in the US. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 4 / 27

Motivation Education policies and migration Education, language learning and migration are simultaneous decisions. Part of this decision is determined by education policies: Compulsory schooling laws shift educational attainment for a significant fraction of the population from low to medium levels 68% of Europeans learn(ed) foreign languages at school (Eurobarometer). Education reforms that regulate compulsory education in terms of length and curricula (including foreign languages) provide exogenous variation to education and language learning. The impact of education policies is informative about how the quantity and content of education affects migration. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 5 / 27

Summary Addresses: Are migration flows influenced by education policies? Policy 1: Increasing the length of compulsory education. Policy 2: Introducing foreign languages into compulsory school curricula. Sheds light on: The role of education in general and language proficiency in particular for international migration patterns. Data sources: Eurostat, Eurydice, EACEA, UN, etc. Identification: Exogenous variation in education levels and foreign language proficiency caused by legislation changes. Findings: While additional years of compulsory education decrease the propensity to migrate, foreign language proficiency has a significant positive impact on migration flows. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 6 / 27

Related Literature The effect of education on within country migration: Machin, Salvanes and Pelkonen (2012): positive effects for Norway. Malamud and Wozniak (2010): mixed results for the US. McHenry (2012): negative effects for the US. Selection along education in international migration: Borjas (1987), Fernández-Huertas Moraga (2011): Mexican immigrants to the US are negatively selected. Chiquiar and Hanson (2005): selection is positive. Caponi (2010): u-shaped selection McKenzie and Rapoport (2010): selection depends on strength of networks. The effect of foreign language proficiency on international migration: Adsera and Pytlikova (2012): linguistic distance negatively affects migration. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 7 / 27

Theoretical considerations (based on Stark, 1991) Two countries: Rich R and poor P The level of education is θ Expected wages depend on education: In the rich country: WR (θ) = r 0 + r 1 θ In the poor country: W P (θ) = p 0 + p 1 θ with r 0 > p 0 and r 1 > p 1 W R is the minimum wage in the rich country Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 8 / 27

Theoretical considerations Foreign language proficiency k < 1 Degree recognition cost C Two cases for migrants wages: Migration & NO degree recognition: k W R Migration & degree recognition: kwr (θ) C Compare to NO migration: W P (θ) Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 9 / 27

Theoretical considerations Education and migration decisions Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 10 / 27

Theoretical considerations An increase in compulsory schooling Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 11 / 27

Theoretical considerations An increase in language proficiency Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 12 / 27

Identification Changes in the length of compulsory schooling Refonn First cohon Changein Change in Expected Age at potentially min. school years of change school affected leaving age comp. in!sced emry at schoo/. the time of the rejorm Austria 1962 1947 14 lo 15 8 lo 9 lo isced2 6 Belgium 1983 1969 14 lo 18 8 lo 12 lo ISCED3 6 Denmatk 197 1 1957 14 lo 16 7 lo9 loisced3 7 Pi nland (Uusima) 1977 1966+ 13 lo 16 6 lo9 lo LSCED 3 7 Pinland (Eiela-Suomi) 1976 1965+ 13 lo 16 6 lo 9 toisced3 7 Pinland (lla-suomi) 1974 1963+ 13 to 16 6 lo9 to lsced3 7 Pinland (V ali-suomi) 1973 1962+ 13 lo 16 6 lo9 to ISCED3 7 Pinland (Pohjois-Suomi) 1972 1961+ 13 lo 16 6 to9 to ISCED 3 7 Prance 1959++ 1953 14 lo 16 8 to 10 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(Schleswig-Holslein) 1956 1941 14 lo 15 8 to 9 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(H amburg) 1949 1934 14 lo 15 8 lo9 to LSCED 3 6 Gem1any( iedersachsen) 1962 1947 14 lo 15 8 lo9 to LSCED3 6 Germany(Bremen) 1958 1943 14 lo 15 8 lo9 lo ISCED3 6 Gem1any( ordrhein-westphalia) 1967 1953 14 lo 15 8 lo9 lo ISCED3 6 Gem1any(Hessen) 1967 1953 14 lo J5 8 lo9 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(Rheinland-Pfalz) 1967 1953 14 lo 15 8 to9 to ISCED 3 6 Gem1any(Baden-Wurtenberg) 1967 1953 14 lo 15 8 to 9 to ISCED3 6 Gem1any(Bayern) 1969 1955 14 lo 15 8 to9 toisced3 6 Gennany(Saarland) 1964 1949 14 lo 15 8 to9 lo isced3 6 Greece 1975 1963 12 lo 15 6 lo9 to LSCED2 6 lreland 1972 1958 14 to 15 8 lo 9 to isced3 6!tal y 1963 1949 11 lo 14 5 to 9 to isced2 6 Netherlands 1975 1959 15 lo 16 9 to 10 toisced2 6 Spain 1970 1957' 12 lo 14 6 lo8 to isced2 6 Sweden 1962 1950.. 4/ 15 lo 15/ 1 8 to9 to ISCED3 6 or7 Source: Brunello, Fort and Weber (2009) Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 13 / 27

Identification ORGANISATION Changes in second foreign language instruction Figure B3: Starting age and duration of second foreign language as a compulsory subject in preprimary, primary and/or general secondary education, 2002/03, 2006/07, 2010/11 A foreign language is being phased in No compulsory second foreign language Source: Eurydice. Data: Eurostat; Education, Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency Explanatory note This figure deals primarily with languages described as foreign (or modern ) in the curriculum. Regional and/or minority languages (see Figure B15) and classical languages (see Figure B16) are included only when the curriculum designates them as alternatives to foreign languages. Aparicio-Fenoll The & Kuehn starting (CCA age refers andto UAM) the second compulsory Education foreign Policies language & Migration and reflects the normal age of students; Juneit does 20, 2016 not 14 / 27

Identification Increase in minimum school leaving age Individual A: Born in country S, part of cohort O. Individual B: Born in country S, part of cohort Y. Individual C: Born in country I, part of cohort O. Individual D: Born in country I, part of cohort Y. Increase in minimum school leaving age in country S for cohort Y but not O. Compare the difference in migration between cohort Y and cohort O between country S and country I (SO vs. SY) vs. (IO vs. IY). Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 15 / 27

Identification Introduction of foreign language Individual A: Born in country S, part of cohort O. Individual B: Born in country S, part of cohort Y. Individual C: Born in country I, part of cohort O. Individual D: Born in country I, part of cohort Y. Introduction of foreign language in compulsory school curriculum in country S for cohort Y but not O. Compare migration to country G where learned language is spoken: (SOG vs. SYG) vs. (IOG vs. IYG) to country N where learned language is not spoken: (SON vs. SYN) vs. (ION vs. IYN). Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 16 / 27

Data sources Migration: Eurostat s database complemented by Germany 2009-2012: Statistisches Bundesamt; Data on flows of foreigners to Germany by nationality and age group. Austria 2010: STATISTIK AUSTRIA ; Migration flows (Inflows to Austria and Outflows from Austria, by age groups). UK 2008-2012: Office for National Statistics. Social Survey Division; International Passenger Survey by age group and nationality. Compulsory schooling: Brunello, Fort and Weber (2009); Murtin and Viarengo (2011); European Commission; Hörner et al (2007); Eurydice; United Nations; OECD; World Education Service; Schöpflin (1986); Tomich (1963) Exposure to foreign languages in school: EC s Education, Audiovisual and Culture Executive Agency; EC s Directorate General for Education and Culture; Eurydice; Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 17 / 27

Information Migration: Number of immigrants in each cohort-year-destination-origin cell (cohorts defined by 5 year age range). Compulsory schooling: Information on: Year of reform, affected cohorts, change in number of years of compulsory schooling. Exposure to foreign languages in school: Information on: Year of reform, affected cohorts, range of compulsory languages. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 18 / 27

Sample Years 2008-2012 Individuals between 25 and 44 years of age. Destination countries (27) that provide data: Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macedonia, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, and Sweden. Origin countries (31): destination countries plus France, Greece, Malta, and Portugal. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 19 / 27

Descriptive statistics Variable Mean Std. Dev. Min. Max. immigrant inflow origin-dest by age 221 1,016 0 29,250 years compulsory schooling 9.112 1.166 6 13 exposed to foreign languages 0.091 0.285 0 1 age group: 25-29 0.252 0.434 0 1 age group: 30-34 0.252 0.432 0 1 age group: 35-29 0.249 0.434 0 1 age group: 40-44 0.248 0.432 0 1 year: 2008 0.224 0.417 0 1 year: 2009 0.183 0.387 0 1 year: 2010 0.193 0.395 0 1 year: 2011 0.195 0.396 0 1 year: 2012 0.205 0.403 0 1 difference destin.-orgin u-rates by age 0.005 0.059-0.272 0.331 stock migrants orgin-dest by age t 1 1,797 10,279 0 324,571 population by age 1,182,332 1,603,305 2,224 7,176,550 years under communist rule 4.845 7.474 0 23.5 Number of observations 11,205 Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 20 / 27

Methodology Model 1: M a,o,d,t = α 0 + α 1 CS a,o,t + α 2 D a + α 3 D o + α 4 D d + α 5 D t + α 6 D a,o + α 7 D a,d + + α 8 D a,t + α 9 D o,d + α 10 D o,t + α 11 D d,t + α 12 X t + ɛ a,o,d,t (1) M: number of immigrants of age a from country o going to country d in year t CS: number of years of compulsory education X t : stock of immigrants by country of origin, differences in the unemployment rates between the destination country and the country of origin (both lagged), total population by age group, years lived under communist rule. Model 2: M a,o,d,t = β 0 + β 1 L a,o,d,t + β 2 D a + β 3 D o + β 4 D d + β 5 D t + β 6 D a,o + β 7 D a,d + + β 8 D a,t + β 9 D o,d + β 10 D o,t + β 11 D d,t + β 12 X t + ɛ a,o,d,t (2) L: exposure to compulsory language courses in the official language of country d. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 21 / 27

Results Compulsory schooling on Education (1) (2) (3) cs 0.335 0.349 0.308 (0.103) (0.103) (0.138) Obs. 108 108 108 R 2 0.201 0.223 0.746 Age group dummies X X Country dummies X Data: Barro and Lee (2010) Changes in compulsory schooling clearly affect actual years of education. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 22 / 27

Results Compulsory schooling on Migration (1) (2) (3) (4) years of compulsory schooling -24.111 (15.929) -31.168 (15.896) -32.070 (14.932) -30.685 (15.116) Obs. 11205 11205 11205 11205 R 2 0.683 0.713 0.928 0.93 All simple interactions X X X Destination by origin by year X X Destination by age by year X One additional year of compulsory education reduces the number of individuals that migrate to a certain country by 31. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 23 / 27

Results Compulsory schooling on Migration (1) (2) (3) (4) years of compulsory schooling -22.066 (16.070) -42.821 (16.139) -32.110 (14.924) -30.685 (15.116) years of compulsory schooling 69.956-2.587-10.223 65.351 in destination (21.939) (127.967) (27.719) (0.) Obs. 11205 11205 11205 11205 R 2 0.684 0.725 0.928 0.93 All simple interactions X X X Destination by origin by year X X Destination by age by year X Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 24 / 27

Results Exposure to foreign language courses on migration (1) (2) (3) (4) Foreign language classes 429.693 221.494 230.098 225.692 (131.716) (121.035) (118.636) (121.697) Obs. 11205 11205 11205 11205 R 2 0.685 0.725 0.928 0.93 All simple interactions X X X Destination by origin by year X X Destination by age by year X Compulsory foreign language classes increase the number of individuals that move to country where language is spoken by 226. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 25 / 27

Conclusion I Theoretical models use education to explain heterogeneity in migration choices. Compulsory schooling laws significantly affect the distribution of education. The length of compulsory education negatively affects international migration. One additional year of compulsory education reduces the number of individuals that migrate to a certain country by 31 (14% reduction with respect to mean). Policy implications: Policy makers should take into account that education reforms can shape future international migration patterns of affected cohorts. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 26 / 27

Conclusion II Host country s language proficiency significantly affects the migration experience. Exposure to foreign language classes has a positive significant impact on migration decisions. In particular, studying the language of a country during compulsory education increases the number of individuals that move to that country by 226. Policy implications: Foreign language instruction can be used as an instrument to foster efficiency in the labor market through reallocation of the workforce. Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 27 / 27

Youth unemployment rates across Europe, 2011 (26.1,46.4] (22.4,26.1] (8.7,22.4] [7.6,8.7] Data: Eurostat Return Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 28 / 27

Motivation Education levels and migration rate Data: Brücker, Capuano and Marfouk (2013) Return Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 29 / 27

Motivation Education levels of 20-34 year-olds Data: Barro and Lee (2010) Return Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 30 / 27

Reforms: Compulsory Education country before after first affected cohort country before after first affected cohort Belgium 8 12 1969 Netherlands 10 11 1973 Bulgaria 8 9 1976 Netherlands 11 12 1980 Czech Republic 9 10 1968 Netherlands 12 13 1987 Czech Republic 10 9 1979 Norway 9 10 1991 Estonia 8 11 1973 Poland 8 9 1992 Estonia 11 9 1976 Portugal 6 9 1980 Finland 6 9 1966 Romania 10 8 1976 Germany 9 13 1977 Romania 8 9 1992 Hungary 8 10 1987 Slovakia 9 10 1968 Hungary 10 11 1988 Slovakia 10 9 1979 Hungary 11 13 1992 Slovakia 9 10 1984 Ireland 9 10 1990 Spain 8 10 1978 Italy 8 9 1989 Italy 9 10 1996 Latvia 8 11 1973 Latvia 11 9 1975 Lithuania 8 11 1973 Lithuania 11 9 1975 Lithuania 9 10 1994 Luxembourg 9 10 1972 Luxembourg 10 11 1988 Luxembourg 11 12 1996 Macedonia 8 9 1999 Malta 10 11 1983 Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 31 / 27

Reforms: Compulsory Foreign Languages origin countries destination countries first affected cohort Austria UK, Ireland 1975 Belgium UK, Ireland 1978 Bulgaria UK, Ireland 1975 Croatia UK, Ireland 1979 Czech Republik UK, Ireland 1979 Denmark Austria, Belgium, Germany 1961 Estonia UK, Ireland 1979 France Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1985 Greece Austria, Belgium, Germany 1981 Hungary UK, Ireland 1983 Italy Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1995 Latvia UK, Ireland 1979 Lithuania UK, Ireland 1979 Macedonia UK, Ireland 1979 Poland UK, Ireland 1979 Portugal Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1990 Romania UK, Ireland 1979 Slovakia UK, Ireland 1979 Slovenia UK, Ireland 1979 Sweden Austria, Belgium, Germany, Spain 1979 UK Austria, Belgium, Germany 1977 Aparicio-Fenoll & Kuehn (CCA and UAM) Education Policies & Migration June 20, 2016 32 / 27