INTERNATIONAL AND INTERNAL MIGRATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: THE IMPLICATIONS FOR INTER-GOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS AND SERVICE DELIVERY PROF. JONATHAN CRUSH REPORT WITH BIBLIOGRAPHY
Table of Contents 1. Introduction... 4 2.0 Dimensions of International Migration to South Africa... 4 2.1 Legal Immigration for Permanent Residence... 6 2.2 Legal Migration for Temporary Residence... 8 2.3 Contract Migration... 8 2.4 Forced Migration... 9 2.5 Education Migration... 10 2.6 Irregular Migration... 11 2.7 Emigration... 12 3.0 Inter-Provincial Migration Within South Africa... 16 3.1 Definition of Internal Migration... 16 3.2 Data Sources... 16 3.3 Volume of Inter-Provincial Migration... 17 3.4 Race and Inter-Provincial Migration... 18 3.5 Age and Inter-Provincial Migration... 19 3.6 Gender and Inter-Provincial Migration... 20 3.7 Marital Status and Inter-Provincial Migration... 22 3.8 Education and Inter-Provincial Migration... 23 3.9 Spatial Patterns of Inter-Provincial Migration... 23 3.10 Employment Status and Inter-provincial Migration... 27 4.0 Inter-Provincial Migration Trends... 29 4.1 Volume and Direction... 29 4.2 Net Inter-Provincial Migration... 33 4.3 Inter-Provincial Migration and Gender... 34 5.0 Labour Migration... 36 5.1 Volume of Inter-Provincial Labour Migration... 36 5.2 Labour Migration and Race... 37 5.3 Labour Migration and Gender... 37 5.4 Labour Migration and Marital Status... 38 5.5 Labour Migration and Education... 39 5.6 Labour Migration and Employment... 39 5.7 Inter-Provincial Patterns of Labour Migration... 40 Appendix A... 43 List of Tables and Figures Table 1: Global Migration Stock of International Migrants 1960-2005... 4 Table 2: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, 1996... 5 Table 3: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, 2001... 6 Table 4: Immigration to South Africa, 1990-2004... 7 Table 5: Work Permits Issued and Renewed, 1990-2001... 8 Table 6: Migrant Labour on South African Mines, 1990-2004... 9 Table 7: Refugee Applications/Approvals in South Africa by Country of Origin, 1994-2004... 10 Table 8: International Students at South African Public Universities, 2006... 10 Table 9: International Students attending South African Universities and Colleges... 11 Table 10: Total Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Coutries Data... 14 Table 11: Professional Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Countries Data... 14 2
Table 12: Measures of Total Inter-Provincial Migration... 18 Table 13: Total inter-provincial Migration by Population Group, 1996-2001... 18 Table 14: Age Distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, 1996-2001... 19 Table 15: Age and Sex distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, 1996-2001.. 20 Table 16: Spatial Organization of Migrant Moves, 1996-2001... 23 Table 17: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest In-Migration of Population Between 2001 and 2006... 24 Table 18: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest Out-Migration of Population Between 2001 and 2006... 25 Table 19: Migrant Origins by Province, 1992-2006... 29 Table 20: Migrant Destinations by Province, 1992-2006... 29 Table 21a: Inter-Provincial Migration in South Africa (1992-1996)... 30 Table 21b: Inter-Provincial Migration in South Africa (1996-2001)... 30 Table 21c: Estimated Inter-Provincial Migration (2001-2006)... 31 Table 22: Total Inter-Provincial Migration, 1992-2006... 31 Table 23: Ten Major Migration Streams... 32 Table 24: Provincial Inter-Provincial Migration Rates, 1996-2001... 32 Table 25: Net Inter-Provincial Migration, 1992-2006... 33 Table 26: Inter-Provincial Migration by Gender and Province... 34 Table 27: Inter-Provincial Migration by Province of Origin and Destination and Gender, 1996-2001... 35 Table 28: Labour Migration by Household, 1993 2002... 36 Table 29: Inter-Provincial Migration of Migrant Workers by Racial Group, 2002... 37 Table 30: Migrant Workers by Gender, 1993-2002... 37 Table 31: Migrant Workers by Province of Origin and Gender, 2002... 38 Table 32: Levels of Education of Migrant Workers, 2002... 39 Table 33: Migrant Labour in South Africa by Province of Employment, 2002... 40 Table 34: Net Inter-Provincial Labour Migration... 41 Table 35: Inter-Provincial Flows of Migrant Workers, 2002... 41 Figure 1: Immigration to South Africa, 1970-2003... 7 Figure 2: South African Emigration to Five Most Important Destination Countries, 1990-2002... 13 Figure 3: Population Pyramid of Inter-Provincial Migration, 1996-2001... 21 Figure 4: Population Pyramid of South African Population, 2001... 21 Figure 5: Marital status of Migrants, 1996-2001... 22 Figure 6: Marital Status of Non-Migrants, 2001... 23 Figure 7: Major Migrant Destination Muncipalities, 2001-6... 25 Figure 8: Major Migrant Origin Muncipalities, 2001-6... 27 Figure 9: Employment Status of Female Migrants, 2001... 28 Figure 10: Employment Status of Male Migrants, 2001... 28 Figure 11: Net Migration by Province, 1992-2006... 34 Figure 12: Marital Status of Migrant Workers by Province of Origin (%)... 38 Figure 13: Employment Sectors of Migrant Workers, 2002... 39 3
1. Introduction Globally, migration is at an all-time high, with 190 million people now living outside their country of birth (up from 75 million in 1960) (Table 1). Internal migration within countries is even more voluminous (Deshingkar and Grimm 2005; GCIM 2005). For example, in China alone, 120 million people migrated internally in 2001. In Vietnam, 4.3 million people migrated internally between 1994-9, compared to only 300,000 who left the country. Closer to home, in Gauteng Province, the total population in 2001 was 8.8 million. Of these, 3.6 million were internal migrants (born outside the province) and 473,000 were international migrants (born outside the country). Both forms of migration (internal and international) are reshaping national, regional and local economies throughout Africa and the world. Population redistribution, both within and between countries, has considerable implications for economic growth and investment, service consumption and delivery, and government expenditures. In federal systems of governance, migration looms increasingly large in budget allocations and inter-governmental transfers. Countries with federal systems, such as Canada, Australia and South Africa, need to devise measures to configure migration into their calculations (Bird and Smart 2002; Bucovetsky 2003). In the South African case, migration is not only increasing rapidly but it has proven to be very difficult to accurately measure with existing methodologies and instruments. Table 1: Global Migration Stock of International Migrants 1960-2005 Millions 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 World 75 81 99 155 177 190 Developed countries 32 38 47 82 105 115 Developing countries 43 43 52 73 72 75 Source: UNDP, Trends in Total Migrant Stock: The 2005 Revision (Online Database) This report for the South African Financial and Fiscal Commission in South Africa will provide a detailed picture of migration trends and dynamics using existing data and information sources. The report will (a) examine the dimensions and trends in internal and international migration to South Africa since 1990; (b) construct a profile of the migrant population in South Africa (internal and international) at the present time; (c) assess the spatial dimensions of internal and international migration in terms of where migrants are moving to (destinations of international migrants, inter-provincial movements); (d) assess the implications of migration for service delivery; and (e) identify which services are likely to be most affected by shirts in population as a result of migration. The overall aim is to assess the scope and scale of internal and cross-border migration and to assess the implications of migration for the activities and brief of the Financial and Fiscal Commission. 2.0 DIMENSIONS OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION TO SOUTH AFRICA The international migrant population of South Africa has increased since 1990 but by how much? The 1996 Census showed a migrant stock (defined by the UN as the number of foreign-born people recorded in the national census) of 813,764 (Table 2) and the 2001 Census a stock of 1,025,072 (Table 3), an increase of 211,308 in the five year period. The bulk of the increase (76%) was made up of migrants from other SADC countries. The numbers from the rest of Africa nearly doubled from 23,000 to 42,000 while the number from Europe rose by a mere 11,000. Unfortunately, this data does not show the absolute number of new migrants for two reasons: (a) census inaccuracies of unknown magnitude; and (b) the fact that the increase is a net figure (i.e. 4
balance between immigration and emigration rather than showing the absolute number of immigrants). Table 2: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, 1996 SADC Countries Rest of Africa Europe Asia North America Central & South America Australia & New Zealand Province M F M F M F M F M F M F M F Total Eastern Cape 4,285 5,041 1,542 1,217 6,022 5,753 1,060 975 135 145 303 314 80 117 26,989 Free State 55,857 13,900 390 304 2,163 1,830 573 433 55 43 139 118 28 22 75,855 Gauteng 155,736 55,842 5,834 3,829 52,237 48,756 7,377 6,388 1,237 1,238 1,738 1,721 795 792 343,520 KZN 16,902 15,379 1,712 1,630 20,564 20,831 2,223 2,152 454 520 914 1,000 444 447 85,172 Limpopo 32,963 27,529 451 375 984 930 655 389 30 32 272 276 10 7 64,903 Mpumalanga 35,134 20,275 546 421 2,861 2,599 333 316 63 61 171 151 49 36 63,016 N. Cape 4,643 4,772 68 41 382 304 98 79 19 17 30 30 9 11 10,503 North West 40,740 12,458 674 438 1,676 1,224 767 593 54 60 201 148 14 20 59,067 Western Cape Total from region Total from region (males and females) 12,509 12,683 1,993 1,596 24,120 23,968 2,191 1,955 719 805 584 593 472 531 84,719 35,8769 16,7879 13,210 9,851 111,009 106,195 15,277 13,280 2,766 2,921 4,352 4,351 1,901 1,983 813,764 Source: SSA 1996 Census Data 526,648 23,061 217,204 28,577 5,687 8,703 3,884 813,764 The 2001 international migrant stock of South Africa included 687,678 migrants from other SADC countries, 41,817 from the rest of Africa, 228,318 from Europe (a legacy of apartheid-era immigration) and 40,889 from Asia. Although these numbers may be an undercount, and do not distinguish between those legally and illegally in the country, they are the best, and most recent, approximation of the migrant stock of the country. They also represent the accumulation of many decades of immigration to the country. For example, the bulk of the foreign-born population from Europe entered the country during the apartheid era. As in other countries, migrants tend to congregate in certain areas. As Table 2 shows, nearly 50% of South Africa s migrant stock (473,000 out of 1.02 million) is in Gauteng with the Western Cape the next most important destination (at 109,000). Migration from SADC and the rest of Africa is heavily male-dominated. Sixty three percent of the 2001 SADC-born migrant stock and 66% of the rest of Africa-born migrant stock was male. Asian immigrants were 58% male. The gender division of European, North American, Central and Southern American and Australasian immigrants was very similar. 5
Table 3: Foreign-Born by Region of Origin, Province and Gender, 2001 SADC Countries Rest of Africa Europe Asia North America Central & South America Australia & New Zealand Province M F M F M F M F M F M F M F Total Eastern Cape 7,359 8,066 2,242 1,284 5,996 5,952 1,392 1,119 210 246 369 377 103 125 34,840 Free State 25,125 18,299 1,284 187 1,676 1,447 746 491 71 54 153 137 26 29 48,928 Gauteng 20,1017 104,442 14,522 7,117 58,092 55,359 11,569 8,870 2,076 2,079 2,259 2,967 1,025 979 473,073 KZN 24,324 20,368 7,117 2,089 18,293 18,928 2,837 2,406 614 705 852 781 385 397 96,764 Limpopo 40,194 33,390 2,089 388 1,147 991 1,700 827 135 123 124 100 33 21 79,840 Mpumalanga 48, 502 26,933 653 389 2,503 2,291 569 300 110 92 145 135 33 38 82,693 N. Cape 5,274 5,617 196 56 441 380 98 68 19 24 73 48 12 11 12,317 North West 58,484 21,486 793 361 2,245 1,715 1,233 705 98 100 236 179 43 29 87,707 Western Cape Total from region Total from region (males and females) 20,153 18,645 4,305 2,296 25,211 25,651 3,418 2,541 1,141 1,252 1,545 1,610 532 610 108,910 430,432 257,246 27,650 14,167 115,604 112,714 23,562 17,327 4,474 4,675 6,456 6,334 2,192 2,239 1,025,072 Source: SSA 2001 Census Data 687,678 41,817 228,318 40,889 9,149 12,790 4,431 1,025,072 Six major channels of international migration to South Africa can be identified (this excludes temporary migrants such as visitors, tourists and traders). Three of these channels have been in decline since 1994 (legal immigration, legal temporary residence, contract migration), the other three have shown a marked increase (forced migration, education migration and irregular migration). In other words, with the exception of education migration, the migration streams over which the state has a greater degree of control have been in decline, partly as a result of policies designed to achieve this outcome. The streams over which the state has less control (irregular and forced migration) have dramatically increased. On balance, the declining streams have been outweighed by the increasing streams, leading to the net gain in the number of foreign citizens living in South Africa. A seventh stream of migration consists of those who have emigrated from the country, temporarily or permanently. Emigration must also be configured into this analysis since the emigrant no longer utilizes public services. However, few entirely cut their ties with the country, Many continue to own property, to pay taxes and to remit to relatives still in the country. 2.1 Legal Immigration for Permanent Residence During the apartheid era, the National Party government used immigration policy as a tool to boost the white population of the country by recruiting immigrants from Europe (Peberdy 1999). As Figure 1 shows, the success of this policy varied over time. White immigration peaked during periods of greatest political oppression of the majority black population and fell during periods of heightened opposition to the system. 6
Figure 1: Immigration to South Africa, 1970-2003 After 1990, legal immigration for purposes of permanent residence declined considerably (Table 4). The reasons have been attributed to a restrictionist immigration policy pursued under then Minister of Home Affairs, Dr Buthelezi (Crush and Dobson 2007). However, since 2002, the numbers have begun to increase again under the new Immigration Act. The impact of JIPSA, which focus on priority skills acquisition from abroad, could further accelerate the numbers of new immigrants. Table 4: Immigration to South Africa, 1990-2004 Year Immigrants African Immigrants % African 1990 14,499 1,628 11.2 1991 12,379 2,065 16.7 1992 8,686 1,266 14.8 1993 9,824 1,701 17.3 1994 6,220 1,656 26.6 1995 5,221 1,388 26.6 1996 5,608 1,667 29.7 1997 4,271 1,413 33.1 1998 4,711 1,234 26.2 7
1999 3,367 1,486 44.1 2000 2,456 855 34.8 2001 5,030 1,648 32.8 2002 7,176 3,164 44.1 2003 10,578 5,019 47.4 2004 10,159 4,569 45.0 Total 110,185 30,759 27.9 Source: Department of Home Affairs 2.2 Legal Migration for Temporary Residence Temporary residence in South Africa for purposes of employment increased in the early 1990s and then began to fall, as the government pursued a policy of favouring South Africans in the labour market (Table 5). The peak year for new work permits and renewals was 1996 (at 52,000). By 200, the number of work permits and renewals had declined to 15,000. Again, this is likely to change with the implementation of the new Immigration Act and JIPSA. Table 5: Work Permits Issued and Renewed, 1990-2001 Year New Work Permits Renewals Total 1990 7,657 30,915 38,571 1991 4,117 32,763 36,880 1992 5,581 33,318 38,899 1993 5,741 30,810 36,551 1994 8,714 29,352 38,066 1995 11,053 32,838 43,891 1996 19,498 33,206 52,704 1997 11,361 17,129 28,490 1998 10,828 11,207 22,035 1999 13,163 10,136 23,299 2000 6,643 9,191 15,834 2001 19,430* Total 104,356 270,865 394,650 Source: DHA Annual Reports * The figure for 2001 is based on new work permits and renewals issued abroad. Figures for new permits issued and renewals obtained inside SA are not available 2.3 Contract Migration The South African mining industry is the main employer of contract miners from outside the country. However, the numbers have been in decline in recent years as a result of downsizing 8
and retrenchments. In 1990, the mines employed 173,000 non-south African migrants from four neighbouring countries (Table 6). By 2004, this number had fallen to 110,000. Table 6: Migrant Labour on South African Mines, 1990-2004 Year South Africa Botswana Lesotho Mozambique Swaziland B/L/M/S Total 1990 232,338 14,497 98,788 43,951 16,618 173,854 406,192 1991 208,961 11,979 93,072 46,102 17,291 168,444 377,405 1992 185,177 12,000 92,727 49,022 16,157 169,906 355,083 1993 175,158 11,827 87,326 44,255 15,802 159,210 334,368 1994 170,876 10,939 87,248 49,250 15,101 162,538 333,414 1995 123,038 9,525 87,098 53,321 14,611 164,555 287,593 1996 126,762 9,608 80,485 54,891 14,241 159,225 285,987 1997 126,326 8,552 71,415 52,520 11,980 144,467 270,793 1998 104,483 7,229 56,132 49,507 9,518 122,386 226,869 1999 95,923 5,376 44,958 42,002 6,308 98,644 194,567 2000 95,146 5,373 50,472 44,245 8,079 108,169 203,315 2001 99,260 4,763 49,477 45,893 7,840 107,973 207,233 2002 115,824 4,227 54,154 51,355 8,697 118,433 234,257 2003 112,438 4,205 54,478 53,828 7,970 120,481 232,919 2004 120,146 3,924 48,962 48,918 7,598 109,402 229,548 Source: TEBA 2.4 Forced Migration The civil war in Mozambique forced over 300,000 refugees to settle in South Africa in the 1980s. Many of these had their status in the country regularized between 1999 and 2002. Since 1994, however, the country has had growing numbers of asylum seekers crossing its borders. Between 1994 and 2004, a total of 158,000 asylum claims were made in South Africa from a wide variety of African and Asian countries (Table 7). However, in 2004, only 27,000 (or less than 20%) of these claims had been accepted. Refugees from only six African countries have been accepted in any number (DRC, Angola, Somalia, Burundi, Congo-Brazzaville and Rwanda). Most asylumseekers from other countries have been automatically turned down (Handmaker 2002). There is noinformation on what happens to failed refugee claimants or where in the country successful applicants are living. 9
Table 7: Refugee Applications/Approvals in South Africa by Country of Origin, 1994-2004 Country Africa Asia Applications Approvals No. % No. % DRC 24,808 15.7 9,114 33.6 Angola 12,192 7.7 5,775 21.3 Somalia 14,998 9.5 7,063 26.0 Nigeria 12,219 7.7 23 0.1 Kenya 10,553 6.7 13 0.0 Zimbabwe 6,857 4.3 32 0.1 Ethiopia 6,537 4.1 25 0.1 Tanzania 4,821 3.1 7 0.0 Senegal 4,724 3.0 4 0.0 Burundi 4,570 2.9 2,019 7.4 Congo-Brazzaville 3,823 2.4 1,091 4.0 Malawi 2,765 1.8 0 0.0 Rwanda 2,167 1.4 1,246 4.6 Ghana 2,114 1.3 5 0.0 Cameroon 2,011 1.3 41 0.2 Ivory Coast 1,006 0.6 5 0.0 Pakistan 12,576 8.0 28 0.1 India 10,472 6.6 2 0.0 Bangladesh 4,173 2.6 2 0.0 China 2,846 1.8 0 0.0 Bulgaria 1,616 1.0 0 0.0 Others 10,098 6.4 625 2.3 Total 157,946 100 27,120 100 Source: DHA 2.5 Education Migration The number of international student migrants in South Africa has increased since 1994 as many training institutions have a positive attitude to allocating places to higher fee-paying international students (Kishun 2006). In the case of SADC students, the SADC Education Protocol has made it much easier for students from other SADC countries to attend South African institutions of higher learning (Table 8). The total number of international students registered at South African universities was almost 50,000 in 2006 52,703 in 2005. The majority (nearly 70%) are from SADC countries. Table 8: International Students at South African Public Universities, 2006 Region Number % 10
SADC 33,327 67 Rest of Africa 8,592 17 Rest of the World 7,705 16 Totals 49,624 100 Source: Department of Education A provincial breakdown shows that although international students are present in all provinces, over half (54%) are at Gauteng institutions (Table 9). Another 17% study in the Western Cape. In other words over two-thirds of international students live and study in only two provinces. Table 9: International Students attending South African Universities and Colleges Province of Study SADC Rest of Africa Other Total % Eastern Cape 3,582 488 714 4,784 9.6 Free State 164 1,610 214 1,988 4.0 Gauteng 18,811 4,451 3,633 26,895 54.3 Kwa-Zulu Natal 2,258 655 712 3,625 7.3 Limpopo 338 277 24 639 1.3 North West 3,011 118 106 3,235 6.5 Western Cape 5,163 993 2,302 8,458 17.0 Total 33,327 8,592 7,705 49,624 100 There is considerable anecdotal evidence that schoolchildren from countries surrounding South Africa (particularly Swaziland, Lesotho and more recently Zimbabwe) cross the border and enroll in South African schools. There are also reports that some South African children in border areas cross into Lesotho to go to school. The extent of this phenomenon is unknown although the DHA has attempted to make it more difficult in recent years for non-south African children to attend South African schools without proper documentation. 2.6 Irregular Migration The migrant stream that attracts most attention is undocumented, illegal or irregular migration. Clandestine border crossing in Southern Africa is nothing new although the numbers have probably never been as high as they are at present. While the volume has undoubtedly increased in the last two decades, its extent is often exaggerated by the media. Finally, enforcement tends to focus on identifying and deporting violators rather than prosecuting employers (so-called employer sanctions). South Africa has deported over one million people since 1990. Significantly, the vast majority of deportees (upwards of 80%) are sent home to only two countries: Mozambique and Zimbabwe. There has been a vigorous debate in South Africa about the numbers of irregular migrants in the country (Crush and Williams 2003). Estimates of the numbers grew from the 1-2 million range in the early 1990s to 8-10 million in the late 1990s. Recent newspaper reports claim there are 3 million Zimbabweans in South Africa, figures without basis in fact. Popular and official estimates contrast sharply with census data and those of organizations such as SAMP who put the number 11
in the 500-750,000 range in the.late 1990s. Whatever its size, the irregular population is a floating one since many are temporary migrants and go home regularly. It also decreased by over 250,000 as a result of immigration amnesties between 1996 and 2000 (Crush and Williams 1999). Methods devised for measuring irregular migration to South Africa are extremely flawed and lead to highly dubious statistics. While some have doubted the value of trying to count the uncountable, irregular migrants do consume resources and use services (even as many also contribute economically to the country). Whether these migrants are entitled to the services they access is a point of constitutional debate. From the perspective of the FFC, it would be useful to get a better sense of the range of numbers and the provincial distribution of irregular migrants. 2.7 Emigration South Africa is experiencing considerable emigration at the present time (McDonald and Crush 2002). This is sometimes called the brain drain to reflect the fact that many emigrants are skilled people who leave with their training and skills. One of the common criticisms of the brain drain is that it represents a lost investment for South Africa. Government invests heavily in the training of skills and the trainees subsequently leave, in effect subsidizing the country of destination (usually advanced industrial countries). While the term brain drain is appropriate for those who take skills and qualifications with them, it is not an appropriate term to describe all emigration. Many skilled emigrants leave as family units, taking with them spouses and dependents. Official statistics on emigration are based on self-declaration. There is considerable evidence that not all emigrants declare their intentions on departure or, alternatively, leave for another reason and later decide to stay away permanently. This hypothesis has been tested by comparing South African data on emigration with data on immigration of South Africans to five major countries of destination (Stern and Szalontai 2006). As Table 10 shows, SSA figures show that 130,965 people emigrated to Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the USA between 1989 and 2003. However, data from those countries show that a total of 368,829 people emigrated from South Africa during that same time period. In other words, nearly three times as many people emigrated from South Africa as official South African statistics show. In every case, there is significant undercounting. However, the undercounting is worst in the UK case: 40,408 versus 219,856. The numbers emigrating from South Africa have increased every year since 1990 (Figure 2) Professional emigration from South Africa over the same time period is calculated by SSA to have involved 29,142 people (Table 11). Again, there is undercounting with 80,831 professionals from South Africa recorded by the same five destination countries. To re-emphasize the earlier point about the brain drain, for every professional who lands as an emigrant in these five countries, an additional 4.6 people also arrive (368,829 versus 80,831). Research by the Southern African Migration Project indicates that emigration potential remains high both amongst established professionals and recent graduates (Mattes and Mniki 2005; Crush, Pendleton and Tevera 2006; Pendleton, Crush and Lefko-Everett 2007). 12
Figure 2: South African Emigration to Five Most Important Destination Countries, 1990-2002 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 13
Table 10: Total Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Coutries Data Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 StatsSA 1275 1292 928 694 1309 1298 1507 1767 1508 1631 1544 1820 1580 2276 21973 AUS 2424 2084 1274 1021 1654 2792 3190 3211 4281 5633 6388 6135 4775 5591 56351 StatsSA 454 349 266 285 566 947 679 774 557 449 341 478 339 400 7366 CAN 1558 1083 1014 1141 1822 2910 1753 1526 1898 1530 1162 1629 1155 1363 23186 StatsSA 83 64 50 126 242 1465 939 1266 1157 869 961 1091 939 966 11112 NZ 209 202 223 422 2054 2638 2046 2648 2689 2020 2436 3086 3053 3141 29236 StatsSA 1420 1804 1800 1987 3716 2880 2045 2243 2162 2310 2316 4043 3626 5204 40408 UK 11700 6400 8000 6600 8800 9400 4500 11000 13200 20300 28900 21500 19282 27674 219856 StatsSA 174 278 307 314 566 752 882 963 832 889 827 1181 1091 1598 11753 USA 1899 1990 1854 2516 2197 2144 2560 2966 2093 1904 1580 4100 3880 5683 40199 Five Country StatsSA total 3406 3787 3351 3406 6399 7342 6052 7031 6216 6148 5989 8613 7575 10444 92612 Five country recipient total 17790 11759 12365 11700 16527 19884 14049 21351 24161 31387 40466 36450 32146 43452 368829 All countries StatsSA total 4911 4722 4256 4289 8078 10235 8725 9708 8946 9031 8487 12260 10890 16165 130965 1989-2003 Table 11: Professional Emigration to the Five Most Important Receiving Countries According to StatsSA and Receiving Countries Data Australia Canada New Zealand United Kingdom United States 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 StatsSA 312 291 198 189 356 274 308 420 310 374 354 418 363 523 5044 AUS 558 479 295 213 353 610 765 696 1122 1308 1483 1424 1108 1298 13081 StatsSA 94 85 63 69 136 224 173 170 118 104 79 111 79 93 1710 CAN 327 227 213 243 407 677 421 315 421 338 257 360 255 301 5126 StatsSA 25 24 12 49 93 349 209 297 286 217 240 272 234 241 2770 NZ 60 59 63 104 551 656 462 628 631 494 596 755 747 769 7156 StatsSA 275 331 296 349 661 450 368 422 444 414 415 725 650 933 7245 UK 2574 1408 1760 1518 2068 1782 924 2508 2417 4325 6157 4581 4108 5896 46841 StatsSA 56 68 89 81 153 216 235 254 258 247 230 329 304 445 3270 USA 399 418 389 528 461 450 538 618 538 409 339 880 833 1220 8627 Five Country StatsSA total 762 799 658 737 1399 1513 1293 1563 1416 1357 1318 1854 1629 2234 20038 Five country recipient total 3918 2591 2720 2606 3840 4175 3110 4765 5129 6874 8832 8000 7052 9484 80831 All countries StatsSA total 1043 977 803 898 1691 1960 1680 1970 1924 1968 1855 2929 2689 4316 29142 1989-2003
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3.0 INTER-PROVINCIAL MIGRATION WITHIN SOUTH AFRICA 3.1 Definition of Internal Migration Internal migration is usually defined as a temporary or permanent change of primary place of residence within the boundaries of a nation-state. Opinion differs as to how long a person should have relocated for before they are considered to have migrated. People who make short-term movements (one time or regular) are usually not seen as migrants. This excludes categories such as visitors, tourists, shoppers, traders, commuters etc. An additional complication in the African case is that many people migrate for work from their usual place of residence and live temporarily somewhere else, returning home at regular intervals but cumulatively staying away from home for what may amount to many years. This form of circular migration is extremely common in South Africa. In this paper, this phenomenon is designated as labour migration and the individuals involved are labeled migrant workers. In the South African context, migrants move both within and between the nine provinces. For the purposes of this report, it is inter-provincial rather than intra-provincial migration that is the primary focus of interest. In other words, we are interested in those internal migrants who have temporarily or permanently changed their primary province of residence in a defined time period. We are also interested in migrant workers who are working or looking for work in a province other than their usual place of residence since they do ruse services while living in another province. 3.2 Data Sources Internal migration within South Africa was profoundly affected by the ending of influx controls in the late 1980s and the freedom of movement guaranteed by the 1994 Constitution. At the same time, South Africa has been undergoing an accelerating process of urbanization common to many other developing countries, and for many of the same reasons. The result is that the South African population as a whole is extremely mobile and many South Africans have changed their principal place of residence in the last decade. In addition, what sets South African migration (and African migration generally) apart is its circulatory character. In other words, there are many people who cross inter-provincial boundaries for work but maintain close links with their household in another province. This makes the measurement and understanding of both types of migration movement particularly complex and challenging (Simkins 2006). Two major data sets are used here to examine the volume and dimensions of inter-provincial migration and labour migration within South Africa: (a) Census Data for 1996 and 2001: The primary source of data for measuring internal migration is the Census. Unfortunately, South Africa s last Census was in 2001 and its next will not be until 2111. Census data can be used to make projections and estimates for the period since 2001, but unfortunately, the most accurate and comprehensive picture of internal migration available to us is now 6 years old. To gain a picture of the situation at the present time is therefore extremely challenging, although SSA has made some useful general projections about migration movements up to 2006. More detailed analysis of data from the 2001 Census of South Africa s migrants for the period 1996-2001 is still useful since it provides an important picture of the character of post-apartheid internal migration in terms of variables such as age, gender, marital status, education, occupation and so on. Data for internal migration can be derived in two ways using the Census. First, migrants can be defined as individuals who no longer live in their place (province) of birth. Second, they can be defined as those who moved their province of residence after the previous Census. In the 2001 Census, individuals were explicitly asked whether they were still living in the same place as in 1996 and, if not, when they moved. In cases
where individuals moved more than once, information pertaining to the last move only was recorded. From a policymaking perspective, recent migrants (those who have moved in the last five years) may be of greater interest than the group of individuals who merely no longer live where they were born (Collinson and Kok 2006). Both of these methods have problems. Defining migrants by province of birth means that there are no time limits i.e. the data set could include people who migrated in 1920 and 2000. Thus, analyses of migration flows based on this data include a century of cumulative migration. Defining migrants in terms of the last move between 1996 and 2001 misses migrants who: (a) had moved from one province to another and then moved again within the new province between 1996 and 2001 (counting them only as intraprovincial migrants), (b) had moved to another province after 1996 but then returned to their home province before 2001 and (c) were born between the two censuses (i.e. the data set does not include migrants aged 0-4). The Census is not particularly good at measuring circular labour migration since it does not ask specific questions about reason for migration and periodicity of migration. However, it is quite possible that the Census does include labour migrants, depending on how those individuals interpret question about place of residence. For example, many migrant workers are known to have two homes, one where they work and one in a rural area in another province. Labour migrants would almost certainly be included in any analysis of migration based on place of birth data. However, even here, migrants might well be missed. For example, it is quite possible that a person from Limpopo province was recorded in Gauteng in 1996 and back in Limpopo in 2001. Even more problematically, he or she could have been recorded as a resident of Limpopo in 1992, 1996 and 2001 if they happened to be at home during the Census. Yet they might have spent the majority of those nine years out of the province, working in Gauteng. (b) Labour Force Surveys (LFS): The measurement of labour migration to another province relies on data from household surveys (which record those absent from a household). These are sample rather than comprehensive surveys and the data is only as good as the methodology used (Posel 2003). For example, the HSRC conducted a household migration survey in 2002 but has since admitted that there were considerable methodological irregularities (van Zyl 2005). This report therefore does not use the HSRC survey at all, relying instead on SSA household surveys. The SSA 2002 and 2004 Labour Force Survey included a module about labour migration, collecting information from households about the number and whereabouts of migrants absent from the household. Unfortunately, this module has not been part of every annual survey. In addition, the 2004 survey contains puzzling anomalies and irregularities. This report therefore relies on the 2002 survey, even though it is more dated. 3.3 Volume of Inter-Provincial Migration The volume of inter-provincial migration in South Africa since the end of apartheid is large and growing. Nearly 5 million people are estimated to have changed their province of primary residence since 1992. This is far larger than the number of international migrants either arriving in or leaving South Africa. The number of migrants moving each year has also steadily increased over this time period. As Table 12 shows, the average annual number of migrants was 283,000 between 1992 and 1996. SSA estimates that the number has now risen to 418,000. Cumulative migration (the number of people living in a province other than their province of birth) was 5.5 million in 2001, or more than 10% of the total South-African born population. 17
Table 12: Measures of Total Inter-Provincial Migration Changed Place of Residence No. Ave P.A. 1992-1996 1,133,631 283,408 1996-2001 1,687,647 337,530 2001-2006* 2,091,615 418,323 Total 4,912,893 350,920 Cumulative Migration** 2001 5,582,816 Migrant Workers*** 2002 1,877,167 * SSA Estimate ** Province of Birth (Census 2001) *** LFS, 2002 Inter-provincial migration (whether of population in general or temporary labour migrants) is therefore an extremely significant phenomenon in South Africa with considerable implications for provincial budgeting and service delivery and national-provincial fiscal relations. The evidence suggests that migration has accelerated since the demise of apartheid and is continuing to grow. This is true both of inter-provincial migration and inter-provincial temporary labour migration (Bekker 2002, Kok 2003, Kok and Collinson 2006). 3.4 Race and Inter-Provincial Migration Race is an important determinant of the probability of internal migration in South Africa. During the inter-censual period 1996-2001, the greatest number of migrants (over two thirds) were black, followed by whites (23.2%), coloureds (5.4%) and Indian/Asians (2.3%) (Table 13). Relatively speaking, however, whites are the most mobile. While 3.8% of the black population migrated between provinces, the equivalent figure for whites was 10.4%. In addition, though whites made up less than 10% of the total population (9.6%), they constituted 23.2% of the total number of migrants. In other words, whites were relatively more mobile than any other population group. This is unsurprising given the historical legacy of apartheid. Whites are considerably more affluent and internal and international mobility is strongly correlated with economic circumstances. Table 13: Total inter-provincial Migration by Population Group, 1996-2001 Population Migrants (1996 2001) Proportion migrants Proportion Total Migrants Black African 35 416 131 1336115 3.8% 69.2% Coloured 3 994 334 103640 2.6% 5.4% Indian/Asian 1 115 205 44163 4.0% 2.3% White 4 293 648 447416 10.4% 23.2% Total 44 819 318 1931334 4.3% 100.0 Source: SSA 18
3.5 Age and Inter-Provincial Migration Migration is usually dominated by the young. As Table 14 shows, 80% of South Africa s migrants between 1996 and 2001 were less than 40 years old. People aged between 20 and 24 constituted the largest group of migrants (356,463). Followed by the age cohort 25-29 (with 337,605). The total number of migrants in their 20s was therefore 694,068 or 36% of the total number of migrants. People in these age groups were also relatively more mobile. Between 9-10% of the total number of people in their 20s migrated, compared with less than 6% for all other age groups. As Table 12 shows, the probability of migration increases with age up until 30 and then declines. Less than 3% of retirees (over 65) migrated. While the census data does not provide information on those aged between 0-4, the numbers migrants of school going age was significant at 24% of all migrants. Table 14: Age Distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, 1996-2001 Total Migrants % of Migrants Total Non-Migrants % of Total 5-9 136235 7.1 4717324 2.8 10-14 131021 6.8 4930895 2.6 15-19 192920 10.0 4788797 3.9 20-24 356463 18.5 3938063 8.3 25-29 337605 17.6 3597329 8.6 30-34 221595 11.5 3119304 6.6 35-39 160603 8.4 2911168 5.2 40-44 115998 6.0 2503465 4.4 45-49 78885 4.1 2008489 3.8 50-54 56279 2.9 1581742 3.4 55-59 41565 2.2 1163700 3.4 60-64 33812 1.8 1031483 3.2 65-69 22587 1.2 765347 2.9 70-74 15510 0.8 615963 2.5 75-79 9892 0.5 357646 2.7 80-84 6580 0.3 264367 2.4 85+ 4101 0.2 153232 2.6 Total 1921651 100 38448314 4.8 Child and youth migration is therefore a major and largely unrecognized phenomenon with massive implications for service delivery. Most people under the age of 20 are consumers of services not producers of wealth. The reasons for youth and child migration need to be more fully explored. Traditionally, they relate to children accompanying parents (in one direction) and children being sent back to rural homes for education (in the other). The picture is increasingly complicated by the AIDS epidemic which has seen the emergence and acceleration of children s (often orphan) migration. 19
3.6 Gender and Inter-Provincial Migration The process leading to greater female involvement in migration is known generally as the feminization of migration. International migration flows to South Africa are male-dominated. This is not the case for contemporary internal migration in South Africa. The most striking feature of contemporary internal migration in South Africa, is that there are very similar numbers of male and female migrants. Between 1996 and 2001, for example, there were only 30,000 more male inter-provincial migrants than female (975,000 male v 945,,000 female) (Table 15). Females make up 49.5% of the total number of inter-provincial migrants. There is not any appreciable gender difference in the age structure of migration with roughly similar numbers of male and female migrants in each age category (Figure 3). In other words, whatever the motivation and reasons for migration (usually thought to differ for males and females), overall the gendered patterns of migration are roughly similar for all age groups including children, scholars, the working-age population and seniors. This, again, is a distinctive though unusual finding (Figure 3). Figures 3 and 4 show that migrants have a very distinctive age-gender distribution which differs markedly from that of the population as a whole. While individuals under the age of 20 dominate the general population, the migrant population is dominated by people in their 20s. Table 15: Age and Sex distribution of Inter-Provincial Migrants and Non-Migrants, 1996-2001 Age Range Migrants Non-Migrants Males Females Total Males Females Total 5-9 67841 68394 136235 2357975 2359349 4717324 10-14 64486 66535 131021 2454511 2476384 4930895 15-19 90043 102877 192920 2363048 2425749 4788797 20-24 180322 176141 356463 1918951 2019112 3938063 25-29 176118 161487 337605 1723010 1874319 3597329 30-34 116020 105575 221595 1478429 1640875 3119304 35-39 84764 75839 160603 1356735 1554433 2911168 40-44 62030 53968 115998 1171626 1331839 2503465 45-49 41865 37020 78885 925763 1082726 2008489 50-54 29764 26515 56279 739745 841997 1581742 55-59 21021 20544 41565 531291 632409 1163700 60-64 16742 17070 33812 427757 603726 1031483 65-69 10721 11866 22587 294041 471306 765347 70-74 6655 8855 15510 225869 390094 615963 75-79 3897 5995 9892 132531 225115 357646 80-84 2312 4268 6580 88538 175829 264367 85+ 1145 2956 4101 44742 108490 153232 Total 975746 945905 1921651 18234562 20213752 38448314 20
Figure 3: Population Pyramid of Inter-Provincial Migration, 1996-2001 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 10 5 0 5 10 Males Females Figure 4: Population Pyramid of South African Population, 2001 85+ 80-84 75-79 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 5-9 10 5 0 5 10 Males Females 21
3.7 Marital Status and Inter-Provincial Migration Traditionally, unmarried people are more disposed to moving and seeking out other opportunities than people who are married. In Southern Africa, on the other hand, increasing numbers of migrants are also household heads which suggests that marriage is no longer the stick factor that it one was (Pendleton et al 2006). Studies show that poverty-induced migration is largely responsible for the increase in married migrants and migrants with regular partners (Posel and Casale 2005). Figure 5 shows the marital status of South Africa s total migrant population in 2001. 1 Very few migrants under the age of 20 are married. However, after the age of 25, the proportion of migrants who are married or are living together with regular partners increases dramatically. In the 25-29 age band, over half of the migrants are married or in regular relationships. This is in sharp contrast to non-migrants where the vast majority of people under the age of 30 are unmarried (Figure 6). The proportion of unmarried migrants declines with each succeeding age cohort such that very few migrants over the age of 40 are not married or in a relationship. In contrast to non-migrants, migrants tend to marry younger. The highest modal cohort for married migrants is 30-34 compared to 40-44 for non-migrants. No data was available from the Census on whether or not married migrants were also household heads. Figure 5: Marital status of Migrants, 1996-2001 Marital status of Migrants 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 Divorced Separated Widow er/w idow Never married Living together like married partners Polygamous marriage Married traditional/customary Married civil/religious 100000 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Source: SSA 1 Figures 5 and 6 are based on intra and inter-provincial migration data. Data on marital status for inter-provincial migration alone was unavailable. 22
Figure 6: Marital Status of Non-Migrants, 2001 Marital status of Non-Migrants 5000000 4500000 4000000 3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 Divorced Separated Widower/widow Never married Living together like married partners Polygamous marriage Married traditional/customary Married civil/religious 500000 0 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 Age 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Source: SSA 3.8 Education and Inter-Provincial Migration 3.9 Spatial Patterns of Inter-Provincial Migration Collinson and Kok (2006) develop a five point settlement typology from Census 2001 data and apply it to both current place and previous place of residence. Places are categorized into one of the following: Metro formal Other urban formal Urban informal Tribal area (former homelands) Formal rural (private land). A cross tabulation was then computed of place of residence and previous place by settlement category. The most striking feature of the matrix is the dominance of metro formal areas as destinations. In each of the five categories of origin, 55% or more of the moves were to metro formal places. Over 90% of moves from metro formal places were to other metro formal places. The proportion of moves from urban to rural areas was extremely low (only 4% of moves from metro formal areas were urban to rural). Around a quarter (26%) of moves from urban informal settlements were to other urban informal settlements. In terms of rural-rural moves, 30% of moves from tribal areas were to other rural areas and 20% of moves from formal rural areas were to other rural areas. Table 16: Spatial Organization of Migrant Moves, 1996-2001 23
Origin Metro formal Other urban formal Destination Urban informal Tribal area Formal rural Total Metro formal 91% 2% 3% 2% 2% 100% Other formal urban 64% 16% 4% 6% 9% 100% Urban informal 55% 9% 26% 6% 5% 100% Tribal area 55% 8% 6% 23% 7% 100% Formal rural 67% 8% 5% 10% 10% 100% Source: Collinson and Kok (2006) There is thus a substantial shift from all settlement categories of origin to a formal metropolitan destination. Urbanisation (through migration) is therefore happening at what Collinson and Kok (2006) call an almost alarming rate. The Metro formal is a the most frequent destination category and the reverse flow is very thin indeed, i.e. there is very little migration from metro formal areas to any of the other categories. The metro formal category is thus the major net migration attractor. At the municipal level, most internal migration is towards municipalities that are highly urbanized (the so-called metro-formal areas). For example, Table 17 shows the municipalities experiencing the greatest in-migration of population between 2001 and 2006, as estimated by SSA. The majority of these municipalities contain large urban centres. Five of the top ten are in Gauteng and five of the top twelve are in the Western Cape. By contrast Table 18 shows the municipalities with the greatest out-migration between 2001-6. These are primarily heavily populated rural and semi-urban areas. Five of the top ten are in the Eastern Cape; three of the top ten are in Limpopo and five of the top twenty are in Kwazulu Natal. Table 17: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest In-Migration of Population Between 2001 and 2006 Name of Municipality Province Net In- Migration Total Pop. In 2006 In-Migration as % of Total Pop. In 2006 Ekurhuleni MM Gauteng 140252 2384020 5.88 City of Tshwane MM Gauteng 137685 1926214 7.15 City of Cape Town MM Western Cape 129400 2952385 4.38 City of Johannesburg MM Gauteng 120330 2993716 4.02 West Rand DM Gauteng 42674 732759 5.82 ethekwini MM KwaZulu-Natal 27277 2978811 0.92 Eden DM Western Cape 22983 419334 5.48 Bojanala Platinum DM North West 20168 1182913 1.7 Boland DM* Western Cape 18770 595564 3.15 Metsweding DM Gauteng 18560 183304 10.13 West Coast DM Western Cape 17211 256400 6.71 Overberg DM Western Cape 14965 182864 8.18 Umgungundlovu DM KwaZulu-Natal 13149 931729 1.41 24
Waterberg DM Limpopo 11694 613539 1.91 Nelson Mandela MM Eastern Cape 6715 1073114 0.63 Southern DM North West 4914 584956 0.84 Ehlanzeni DM Mpumalanga 2465 919503 0.27 Siyanda DM Northern Cape 1504 212011 0.71 Nkangala DM Mpumalanga 1452 1034098 0.14 Source: SACN, 2006 * Boland DM is now Cape Winelands DM Table 18: Migration figures for Municipalities Experiencing the Greatest Out-Migration of Population Between 2001 and 2006 Name of Municipality Province Net Out- Migration Total Pop. In 2006 Out-Migration as % of Total Pop. In 2006 OR Tambo DM Eastern Cape 95737 1677914 5.71 Amatole DM Eastern Cape 83514 1708126 4.89 Chris Hani DM Eastern Cape 65846 773505 8.51 Sekhukune DM Mpumalanga 62575 936016 6.69 Capricorn DM Limpopo 53242 1087685 4.89 Vhembe DM Limpopo 31405 1241013 2.53 Mopani DM Limpopo 29075 937041 3.1 Central DM North West 27664 713675 3.88 Alfred Nzo DM Eastern Cape 27610 579583 4.76 Lejweleputswa DM Free State 26023 694609 3.75 Bohlabela DM* Limpopo and Mpumalanga 25469 694746 3.67 Umzinyathi DM KwaZulu-Natal 24448 425625 5.74 Ukhahlamba DM Eastern Cape 23196 297540 7.8 Thabo Mofutsanyane DM Free State 21985 717822 3.06 Zululand DM KwaZulu-Natal 21333 769971 2.77 Bophirima DM North West 16352 426431 3.83 Umkhanyakude DM KwaZulu-Natal 15587 555618 2.81 Gert Sibande DM Mpumalanga 14988 851892 1.76 Uthukela DM KwaZulu-Natal 13865 585690 2.37 uthungulu DM KwaZulu-Natal 12600 809710 1.56 Source: SACN, 2006 Bohlabela District Municipality was disestablished under boundary changes in March 2006 and incorporated into the Mopani and Ehlanzeni District Municipalities Figure 7: Major Migrant Destination Muncipalities, 2001-6 25
Western Cape 1. Cape Town * 2. West Coast 3. Cape Winelands 4. Overberg 5. Eden 6. Central Karoo Eastern Cape 7. Nelson Mandela * 8. Cacadu 9. Amatole 10. Chris Hani 11. Ukhahlamba 12. OR Thambo 13. Alfred Nzo Free State 14. Xhariep 15. Motheo 16. Lejweleputswa 17. Thabo Mofutsanyane 18. Northern Free State Northern Cape 19. Namakwa 20. Karoo 21. Siyanda 22. Frances Baard 23. Kgalagadi North West 24. Bojanala Platinum 25. Central 26. Bophirima 27. Southern Gauteng 28. West Rand 29. Johannesburg * 30. Sedibeng 31. Ekhuruleni * 32. Metsweding 33. Tshwane * Limpopo 34. Mopani 35. Vhembe 36. Capricorn 37. Waterberg 38. Sekhukhune Mpumalanga 39. Gert Sibande 40. Nkangala 41. Ehlanzeni KwaZulu-Natal 42. Amajuba 43. Zululand 44. Umkhanyakude 45. uthungulu 46. Umzinyathi 47. Uthukela 48. Umgungundlovu 49. ilembe 50. ethekwini * 51. Ugu 52. Sisonke 26