Middlesbrough Local Migration Profile Quarter 3 2011-12 This document summarises the main migration trends and data that we can access for Middlesbrough up to 31 st December 2011. You are welcome to share this document within your own organisation, however, please be aware that the data on asylum and refugee numbers are sensitive and should be not be shared publicly. Any reproduction of the data contained in this document must acknowledge the original source. See annexe for list of abbreviations. For further information please contact Kieron Bridges, Regional Policy and Information Officer at kieron.bridges@newcastle.gov.uk or on 0191 277 1654 1
Summary of Migration trends in Middlesbrough Overall population change The local population was estimated at 142,370 people in 2010 (the mid year estimate ); an increase of 1,870 since 2009. Middlesbrough has a higher non- British population comprising 6% of the population compared to the average 3.2% for the North East region. Similarly, the percentage born outside the UK is 8%: somewhat higher than the regional average at 5% (See charts A and B). Chart A Chart B Population growth is affected by births, deaths and migration. In the past year, natural change (births and deaths) accounted for around 35% of this growth, and net migration around 65%. Net migration is made up of international migration and internal migration (i.e. people who move to Middlesbrough from another part of the UK). In 2010 the overall loss of population to internal migration was more than offset by inward international migration (as shown in Chart C). 2
Chart C MYE = Mid Year Estimate The steadily increasing fertility rate in Middlesbrough (Chart D) is higher than the average across the North East. Births to mothers who were born outside the UK, are also significantly higher than the regional average at 19% of all new births compared to the average of 10.36% across the North East (see chart E). Chart D Chart E 3
New international arrivals In 2010, the formal estimate from the Office for National Statistics was for around 2,500 new migrants who will stay more than a year ( long term migrants ) to have arrived in Middlesbrough. Flag 4 data measures (new) GP registrations to foreign nationals. It is probably the most comparable alternative source to the ONS estimates as GP registrations will capture all migrants (if they choose to register) and individuals are more likely to register if they are resident for more than 12 months. However, there are biases in the Flag 4 data due, in particular, to underregistration of young males which means that the comparison is not perfect. But a direct comparison of the pattern and trend evident from the two sources is a useful starting point when attempting to confirm the true scale of long-term migration to an area. (Chart F). This data suggests that the total number of migrants staying for more than a year in Middlesbrough was around 2,100 The other administrative source on Chart F is for National Insurance Number (NINo) allocations to overseas nationals entering the UK which suggests a lower figure of 1,330. The NINo data only records migrants over the age of 16, who are planning to work or claim benefits and would therefore not take account of dependants. Chart F While net migration to Middlesbrough was just over 2,000 in 2010, future net migration is expected to lower and stabilise as immigration decreases and 4
emigration increases. This projection assumes no changes in policy or international conditions. (Chart G) Chart G Around 1,950 migrants visited Middlesbrough for between one and 12 months (short-term migrants) including tourists (this latest estimate is for 2007) The overall number of new migrant workers arriving in Middlesbrough in 2010 was 1,280 which was a rise from 960 in 2009. While EU accession migration is fairly steady, migration from non- EU accession countries continues to rise (Chart H). The top country of origin is India followed by the Czech Republic and Pakistan. (Chart I). 5
Chart H Chart I 6
The number of new workers arriving from the 12 EU accession countries 1 is slightly higher than last year at 340 but remains lower than the peak of 410 in 2007 (Chart H). Chart J shows the total number of A8 workers registered onto the Workers Registration Scheme and also highlights this trend. The total number of registrations received for 2010 was 60: considerably lower than the peak of 205 in 2006. While the number of new migrant workers from EU accession countries has been declining since 2007 there has been a sudden increase in the number of workers from other countries arriving since 2008. (Chart H) In 2011, 15.2% of primary school pupils and 10.1% of secondary school pupils in Middlesbrough had a first language that was something other than English. This compares to a regional average of 5.7% and 3.8% respectively. Chart J Asylum numbers In Q4 2011 there were around 592 asylum seekers accommodated in Middlesbrough representing 29% of the asylum population of the North East region. The top country of origin is Sri Lanka followed by Iran and Pakistan 1 Made up of A8 Countries (Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungry, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia), A2 Countries (Romania and Bulgaria), Malta and Cyprus. 7
While the overall number of asylum seekers is lower than its peak of 860 in 2007, there has been a steady rise in the number of asylum seekers dispersed to the Middlesbrough area, in contrast to the national and north east trend of steady decline. Chart K depicts the number of supported asylum cases (which represent the main applicant) as well as supported asylum persons (which include all named dependents) in Middlesbrough. For information ASYS is the name of the UKBA database from which these figures are derived. Chart K Refugees Data from the Refugee Integration and Employment Service indicates that there have been 309 people granted a positive granted "Refugee" status or "Humanitarian Protection" status since 1 October 2008 and whose asylum claim was dealt with under the New Asylum Model (i.e. those who lodged an asylum claim since March 2007). Between January and September 2011 there were 80 referrals to RIES compared with 74 during the same period of 2010. Note: UKBA stopped RIES funding from end of September 2011. 8
ANNEXE Abbreviations A8 APS ASYS DWP EU GOR GP HESA IPS LGA MYE NINo NIRS ONS PRDS RIES RMP SNPP STM TFR TIM UKBA WRS Accession countries: Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia Annual Population Survey Asylum Statistics (received from UKBA) Department for Works and Pensions European Union Government Office Regions General Practitioner Higher Education Statistics Agency International Passenger Survey Local Government Association Mid-year estimate (population) National Insurance Number National Insurance Recording System Office for National Statistics Patient Register Data Service Refugee Integration and Employment Service Regional Migration Partnership Sub-national Population Projections Short-term migration Total Fertility Rate Total International Migration United Kingdom Border Agency Workers Registration Scheme 9