Thematic Area: Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience

Thematic Area: Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience

Strengthening disaster risk modelling, assessment, mapping, monitoring and multi-hazard early warning systems. Integrating disaster risk reduction into related development activities. OPPORTUNITIES FOR REGIONAL COOPERATION Maximizing existing regional cooperation mechanisms. Improving analysis and capacity building. Promote a Build Back Better approach. Coherence with the Sendai Framework and the 2030 Agenda.

2030 Agenda in South and South West Asia: Resilience holds the key Poverty Hunger Connecting the dots Disasters Inequality Coherence of SDGs/Sendai Framework Policy Tools Actions Climate variability/change Conflict

Message #1 Disaster risk is outpacing resilience.

Human cost significant, while economic cost rising Asia-Pacific: Human cost of natural disasters, 1970 2016 Estimated damage, as % of GDP, is rising in the Asia-Pacific region Flood 10% Storm 37% Others 8% Asia-Pacific 2,038,976 Earthquake/ Tsunami 45% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 2 million lives lost (56% of global fatalities) 88 % of people affected in the world Asia and the Pacific Rest of the World Economic cost: Asia-Pacific has lost $1.3 trillion due to natural disasters (1970-2016)

Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey Afghanistan Bangladesh Bhutan India Iran (Islamic Rep. of) Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka Turkey Damage and future estimates in South and South-West Asian countries 2.5% Damage per year2000-2016 (% of GDP) 3.5% Average annual loss by 2030 (% of GDP) 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 1.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Earthquake Flood Extreme temperature Storm Earthquake Wind Others Flood

Message #2 Hazards are intensifying with transboundary geographical shifts.

Transboundary flooding (Scenarios 2010 and 2030) $5.2B $1.5B $1B Indus China, Pakistan and India $34.7B $16.5B $6.3B Ganges-Bramaputra-Meghna Bangladesh, Bhutan, China and India $1.9B $1B $0.9B Mekong Cambodia, China, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand and Viet Nam $1.5B $1B $0.9B Amur China and Russian Federation A substantial increase in flood losses under both moderate and severe climate scenarios. China, India, Bangladesh and Pakistan will experience two to three times more in flood losses The transboundary flood losses will range from 1.2 to 6 times more in the major river-basins

Tropical cyclone increasing complexity Tropical cyclones will have shorter return periods with increasing storm surges and wind speeds. In the Pacific basin, the track of tropical cyclones may shift eastward or northward. Three times increase in the number of people and economic assets exposed

Message #3 Increased scale, and more transboundary impacts on vulnerability and hunger

Dec 2016 - Jan 2017 2 months Jun Sep 2015 3 months May - Sep 2016 5 months Apr May 2015 1 month Apr - Jun 2016 2 months ASI (%) <10 10-25 25-40 40-55 55-70 70-85 >= 85 Jan - Mar 2015 2 months Nov 2015 - Mar 2016 4 months Oct 2016 - Jan 2017 4 months Mar - Apr 2016 1.5 months Apr - Jul 2016 4 months El Nino and monsoon variability intensify the risk of extreme weather, slow onset disasters Off season no data no seasons no cropland Nov 2015 - Feb 2016 3 months Mar Aug -2015 5 months Feb - Jul 2016 4 months Agricultural Stress Index (ASI) % of cropland area affected by drought per GAUL 2 region May Oct 2015 5 months Non-cropland pixels excluded METOP-AVHRR WGS84, Geographic Lat/Lon Source: Global Information and Early Warning System of Food and Agriculture (GIEWS), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) 2015/2016 El Nino triggered severe weather anomalies and impacted 28 countries of Asia-Pacific

Region s hunger and climate variability is wide-spread and critical 2015 scenario 2050 scenario

Message #4 Disasters keep people in poverty, push people into poverty and transmit intergenerational poverty

Disasters cause the near poor those living on between $1.90 and $3.10 per day to fall into poverty. Pakistan, 2011, Floods 35.60% Philippines, 2013, Cyclone Haiyan Fiji, 2016, Cyclone Winston Sri Lanka, 2016, Floods and Landslides Vanuatu, 2015, Cyclone Pam 14.50% 12.60% 2.30% 23.60% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% In Asia-Pacific, 400 million people live in extreme poverty under $1.90 per day poverty line, while 36 per cent of the population live close to the poverty line, on less than $3.10 per day Population that can potentially slip below poverty

Enrollment Disasters and the poverty trap $1 in asset losses results in larger well-being losses for the poor 80% 75% 70% 65% 2005 Earthquake 2010 Floods 2011 Floods 60% 55% 50% Year Primary school enrolment dropped after disasters in Pakistan

Message #5 Disasters widen inequality

Population (millions) Nexus of disaster and inequality The disproportionate impacts of disasters on income, assets and well-being losses on poorer countries and people widen inequalities. In megacities, 56 per cent of the populations with medium or high levels of inequality are located in extreme disaster risk areas. The results are similar for smaller cities. 100 80 60 40 20 0 Megacities of 10 million or more Extreme High Low Disaster risk classification, Multi-hazard Low inequality (Gini index 20-29) Medium inequality (Gini index 30-39) High inequality (Gini index 40-49)

2014 Number of cities with people at extreme risk: 85 Population at extreme risk: 166 million 2030 Population at extreme risk: 243 million SSWA Cities @ risk

Message #6 There is a growing nexus of disaster, poverty, inequality and conflict

Disaster-poverty-inequality and conflict Disasters bring unstable economic conditions that can exacerbate heighten social exclusion creating fertile ground for conflict. Conflicts undermine the capacity and commitment of states to prevent natural disasters and humanitarian crises. Conflict risk profiles (INFORM index) Localized conflict incidents, 1991 2015 Afghanistan Pakistan Myanmar Papua New Guinea India Bangladesh Korea DPR Nepal Turkey Iran Solomon Islands Philippines Azerbaijan Russian Federation Cambodia 7.8 6.6 6.6 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Pathway to Prevention Addressing Social Inequality Addressing Migration Challenges Dialogue and Peace Building Intergovernmental Platform Managing Climate Risk (Drought, Flood) Managing Natural Resources, Effective and inclusive

Call for action at regional level Regional early warning systems Thematic Issue Disaster Risk Reduction and Resilience Sharing data and knowledge Building regional capacity

ESCAP Resolution 73/7 Synchronizing Sendai Framework with related SDGs through UN Regional Coordination Mechanism.. to support and facilitate multi-hazard early warning systems, impact-based forecasting and disaster risk assessment to strengthen regional cooperation mechanisms.

ESCAP Resolution 73/7 Synchronizing Sendai Framework with related SDGs through UN Regional Coordination Mechanism Target A B C D E F G Number of deaths, missing persons and persons affected by disaster per 100,000 people Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global domestic product (GDP) Direct disaster economic loss in relation to global GDP, including disaster damage to critical infrastructure and disruption of basic services Number of countries with national and local disasters risk reduction strategies Proportion of local governments that adopt and implement local disaster risk reduction strategies in line with the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 Goal/Target Goal 1 Target 1.5 Goal 11 Target 11.5 Goal 11 Target 11.b Goal 13 Target 13.1

Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network Regional road map for implementing the 2030 agenda for sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific Regional Platform for Multi-hazard Early Warning System Regional Space Applications for DRR Regional Hub of Knowledge and Innovation Risk assessment tools and techniques Climate risk information, scenarios and outlooks Financing for DRR Analytical reports Asia-Pacific Disaster Report Impact outlooks Policy briefs Regional cooperation and capacity development activities

Regional Platform for Multi-hazard Early Warning System Asia-Pacific Disaster Resilience Network (APDRN) International Network for Multi- Hazard Early Warning Systems Pillar 1 - Regional Platform of Multihazard Early Warning System Hazard clusters Financing Mechanisms Extreme Weather Events Tropical cyclones/typhoons in partnership with WMO.. ESCAP s Extra Budgetary Cooperation Trust Funds and Regular Budget Contributions Geophysic al disasters Slow-onset disasters Tsunamis and earthquakes, UNESCO/IOC.. El Nino, Droughts, Sand and Dust Storms, RIMES, WMO, UNCCD, UNEP Disaster information management 1111111111111 Asian and the Pacific Centre for the Development of Disaster Information Management

Mainstreaming disaster risk reduction in 2030 Agenda

Thank you! For more information: Sanjay Srivastava Chief, Disaster Risk Reduction ESCAP srivastavas@un.org