Unit 3 - Geography of Population: Demography, Migration 38:180 Human Geography 2.1 Demography Demography is the study of the size and composition of population, including the dynamics of population change, and their spatial variations (distribution). 1
Figure 5.11 World Population Growth Growth of Shares of World Population World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. 2
Components of Growth Fertility Crude Birth Rate General Fertility Rate Total Fertility Rate Mortality Crude Death Rate Infant Mortality Rate of Natural Increase Doubling Time 3
Components of Growth Crude Birth Rate (CBR) = # of births x 1,000 total population Normal range is ~ 15 to 55 2017 world CBR is 20 Components of Growth General Fertility Rate (GFR) = # of births x 1,000 female population 15-49 Total Fertility Rate (TFR) = average number of children born to females (15-49) over their lifetime 2017 world TFR is 2.5 4
Components of Growth Crude Death Rate (CDR) = # of deaths x 1,000 total population Normal range is ~ 5 to 15 2017 world CDR is 8 Components of Growth Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) = # of deaths of infants < 1 yr per 1,000 live births 2017 world IMR is 32 2016 was 36 5
Components of Growth Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) = CBR CDR (expressed as %) 2017 world RNI is 1.2 Doubling Time: 70/RNI current: world = 58 years North America = 175 years Africa = 27 years 2017 World Variations CBR CDR RNI TFR Africa 35 9 2.6 4.6 North America 12 8 0.4 1.8 Latin America 17 6 1.1 2.1 Europe 11 11 0.0 1.6 Asia 18 7 1.1 2.2 6
2017 Variations, Africa CBR CDR RNI TFR Africa 35 9 2.6 4.6 Northern Africa 28 6 2.2 3.3 Western Africa 39 11 2.8 5.3 Eastern Africa 36 8 2.8 4.7 Middle Africa 42 10 3.2 5.9 Southern Africa 22 9 1.3 2.5 Different Patterns of Fertility Decline Fertility Patterns for Selected Countries: 1950-2010 Sources: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision; Population Reference Bureau; and Korea National Statistics Office. 7
PRB Data, 2017 PRB Data, 2017 8
Fig. 5.5 World Rates of Natural Increase 2014 9
PRB Data, 2017 PRB Data, 2017 10
PRB Data, 2017 PRB Data, 2017 11
See gapminder video on growth of the world s population. https://www.gapminder.org/answers/the-rapid-growth-of-the-worldpopulation-when-will-it-slow-down/ Factors Affecting Components of Growth CDR Standard of living Spatial interaction, diffusion Catastrophic events CBR Biological factors Economic factors Cultural factors Government Policies 12
PRB Data, 2015 PRB Data, 2015 13
AIDS (billboard in Malawi) 14
AIDS (poster in South Africa) ANSWER 7 How Does Income Relate to Life Expectancy? Short answer Rich people live longer www.gapminder.org/answers www.gapminder.org/teach Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 15
80 Lifespan 70 60 This graph shows income and lifespan in the world today. Each bubble is a country. 50 $500 $5 000 $50 000 Income Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp. 2012. Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. www.gapminder.org/teach Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 80 Lifespan 70 60 Color shows region. 50 Income $500 $5 000 $50 000 Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp. 2012. Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. www.gapminder.org/teach Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 16
80 Lifespan 70 60 The size of the bubble represents the population. 50 Income $500 $5 000 $50 000 Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp. 2012. Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. www.gapminder.org/teach Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 80 Lifespan 74 70 60 There are no countries here. On this high income, there are no countries with life expectancy below 74. 50 Income $500 $5 000 $50 000 Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp. 2012. Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. www.gapminder.org/teach Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 17
80 Lifespan 70 There s no country here. On this low income, there s no country with life expectancy above 64. 60 64 50 Income $500 $5 000 $50 000 Sources: After 1950: UN World Pop. Prosp. 2012. Before 1950: hundreds of sources combined by Gapminder. www.gapminder.org/teach Free teaching material for a fact-based worldview Version: 1 See gapminder video on effect of reducing (child) poverty and infant mortality. https://www.gapminder.org/answers/will-saving-poor-children-lead-tooverpopulation/ 18
Contraceptive Use, selected countries Percent of Married Women Using Contraception Sources: Demographic and Health Surveys and United Nations Population Division. 19
Contraceptive Use, selected countries PRB Data, 2016 20
PRB Data, 2016 21
One-child policy, China (now relaxed) Consequences of the one-child policy? 22
Population Composition Age and Sex: Population Pyramids Population Pyramid, LDCs Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008 Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision. 23
Population Composition Age and Sex: Population Pyramids Three Basic Structures: 24
Brazil Fig. 5.6 China in the late 20 th Century 25
Namibia, 1991 Germany, 2005 26
Canada s Territorial North, 2001 80-84 70-74 male f emale 60-64 50-54 40-44 30-34 20-24 10-14 0-4 (6.0) (5.0) (4.0) (3.0) (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Percent of Population 27
Population Aging Insert slides on aging Fig. 5.9 Proportion of the Population Aged 60 + PRB Data, 2017 28
Explanations of Population Growth 1) S-shaped curve 2) Malthus 3) Marx 4) Boserup 5) Demographic Transition 6) Fertility Transition Reproductive Revolution 29
Figure 5.11 World Population Growth Malthus and the Problem of Overpopulation Thomas Malthus (1798) Essay on the Principle of Population relationship between population growth and food output 30
Malthus and the Problem of Overpopulation Thomas Malthus (1798) Essay on the Principle of Population relationship between population growth and food output Checks on population growth: preventive check positive check ultimate check Malthus and the Problem of Overpopulation Critique: 1) Output Argument 2) Rate of Population Growth Argument 31
The Demographic Transition Model (Fig. 5.12a) And in the Real World 32
Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico Births/Deaths per 1,000 60 50 40 30 20 10 Sweden Birth Rate Death Rate Mexico Birth Rate Death Rate 0 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 Sources: B.R. Mitchell, European Historical Statistics 1750-1970 (1976): table B6; Council of Europe, Recent Demographic Developments in Europe 2001 (2001): tables T3.1 and T4.1; CELADE, Boletin demografico 69 (2002): tables 4 and 7; Francisco Alba-Hernandez, La poblacion de Mexico (1976): 14; and UN Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (2003): 326. Voluntary Human Extinction Movement vhemt.org 33
Distribution and Density Distribution Density Physiological Density 34
Population Continents 35
Fig. 5.13 World Population Distribution and Density 36
Physiological Density Region Physiological Density (hectares per person) Africa 0.27 Asia 0.11 Latin America 0.31 Europe 0.28 North America 0.80 Oceania 1.62 World 0.25 Physiological Density Place Density (people per km 2 ) Physiological Density (people per km 2 arable land) Japan 335 2,620 India 332 576 Egypt 172 3,150 World 56* 350 * Based on land mass, and excluding Antarctica 37
PRB Data, 2017 Migration 3 kinds of movement : 1) Cyclic: day to day routine activity 2) Periodic: longer term, but temporary e.g. migrant labour, education, transhumance http://www.avignon-et-provence.com/traditions/fete-detranshumance-saint-remy 3) Migration: permanent movement of residence Migration can be international or internal (regional); forced or voluntary 38
Migration 5 approaches to explaining migration: 1) Push-Pull Factors 2) Laws of Migration (Ravenstein) see box 5.6 3) Mobility Transition 4) Behavioural / Humanistic Explanations 5) Moorings Migration Push-Pull Factors: Economic Political Cultural Environmental And intervening opportunities 39
40
41
Migration: Refugees An issue of human rights 1951 UN Refugee Convention refugee: a person who has a wellfounded fear of being persecuted for reasons of race, religion, nationality, membership of a particular social group, or political opinion. Refugees plus internal displaced persons (IDPs): 14.4M plus 38M in 2014 The Age of Migration 42
43
Fig. 6.10 Major source countries of refugees, end of 2013 Refugee Population by Place of Asylum, 2002 44
Note on Misuse of Term Environmental refugees are not refugees Asylum seekers are not refugees (yet ) Economic refugees are not refugees Illegal immigrants are not refugees, but refugees often arrive illegally Rock and roll refugees are not refugees (for Pink Floyd fans) Remittances Money earned abroad and sent home by a temporary foreign worker (migrant worker) person-to-person transfers Can be domestic or international we focus on the latter Especially important for developing countries e.g. Haiti, Mexico, Philippines Global estimate: $600B (2015) 45
Remittances Geographic variations in how remittances are sent: Access to services Regulatory barriers Cost Positive and Negative Impacts: + Income effect + Community effect + Finance effect Risk of dependence Income distribution Transparency Local labour market effects 46
47
48
49
50
Remittances Amount sent back varies with: Place of origin Income Family composition Demographics Case: the Philippines 51
Remittances Amount sent back varies with: Place of origin Income Family composition Demographics Case: the Philippines A New Trend: Reverse Remittances 52