Cork South- Central Cork South-Central Constituency Opinion Poll: February 06 - for Publication on nd February 06 43688/Paul. Moran
Cork South- Central Cork South-Central Constituency.
Introduction A Constituency Poll was conducted in Cork South-Central on behalf of The Irish Independent to be published on 9th February 06. Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 8+. Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror the 8+ population profile in the constituency. Interviewing was conducted at 46 sampling points in Cork South-Central. 497 Interviews were carried out between 5 th 8 th February 06 The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 4.4. 3.
Introduction The survey results presented here are derived from The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of voters representative of the Cork South-Central electoral area - interviewed on a face-to-face basis in the home at 46 sampling points. The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 4.4. POLL Interviewing on the poll was carried out between 5 th and 8 th February 06 The poll was conducted in accordance with the guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies). Extracts from the report may be quoted or published on condition that due acknowledgement is given to Millward Brown and The Irish Independent. Millward Brown & The Irish Independent 06. 4.
Cork South- Central The Results 5.
Lynch and Buttimer likely casualties in Group of Death 6. Cork South Central has long been identified as one of the most intriguing battlegrounds in this election. This latest Millward Brown poll, conducted between Monday 5 th and Thursday 8 th, makes for interesting, (if not worrying) reading for the Government parties in particular. In Football parlance, this is the Group of Death ; it is a constituency boasting a host of heavy hitting, high profile sitting TDs; Micheal Martin and Michael McGrath of Fianna Fail, Minister Simon Coveney and Jerry Buttimer of Fine Gael, and Labour s chairman of the banking inquiry, Ciarán Lynch. Adding spice to the mix, this constituency is now a four seater, ensuring at least one significant casualty. Focussing firstly on the two Fianna Fáil candidates, it is a statistical dead heat between Micheál Martin and Michael McGrath, with the latter just edging it McGrath is sitting pretty on 9pc of the vote; a hairsbreadth shy of the quota, with his colleague also looking very secure, with 7pc of the vote. Bragging rights may go to the Ballincollig based Finance spokesman. More importantly however, is that these results, if replicated on the day, would ensure at least one Government casualty. However, there is more to this than meets the eye. FG and Labour are in danger of both losing a seat. The fly in the ointment for them is the strong performance of Sinn Féin s Donncha O Laoghaire. A relative newcomer, he is sitting on 8pc at this stage, with polling conducted just a week out from the election. Whilst there has been a suspicion that there is a potential left wing vote in this constituency, these results will still be considered by some to have come in under the radar. Simon Coveney, one of the most recognisable FG politicians, is also safe he receives 7pc of the vote, and shall be comfortably re-elected. Therefore on the basis of these results, Jerry Buttimer, whose conduct during the same-sex marriage referendum endeared him to many, is in grave danger. He is attracting just 9pc at this juncture. Between himself and Coveney, Fine Gael muster 6pc of the overall vote, and fall far short of the required two quotas of 40pc. Contrast this with Fianna Fail, who garner 36pc.
Lynch and Buttimer likely casualties in Group of Death (Cont d) Boundary changes to Cork SC has arguably affected Buttimer s chances more than others. For Ciarán Lynch, it would seem that the tide is against him (arguably reflecting the Labour Party overall). With just six percent of the vote at this stage, there is simply too much ground for him to make up. With such a gap between the four front runners, it would suggest that (based on this snapshot) transfers may not be as crucial as in other constituencies. Instead, it may be more instructive to look at how surefooted voters are in their decision to vote for their chosen candidates. 59pc of those voting FF are absolutely certain in their decision, reinforcing the belief that its two seats are safe. Just over half (5pc) of those voting SF feel the same. Interestingly, the corresponding figure for Fine Gael is just 44pc. Looking back over the past five years, Michael McGrath is the clear winner in terms of being the most effective TD for Cork South Central over one in four (7pc) endorse him on this metric, followed by Simon Coveney (who receives the nod from 6pc), and Micheál Martin (pc). The views of Fianna Fáil supporters on this issue is quite instructive. Even though they are evenly split in terms of their first preference vote, McGrath receives twice the levels of endorsements for constituency effectiveness among the party faithful (5pc vs 4pc). In terms of the TD considered least effective, Ciarán Lynch is nominated by one in five (pc) Another indicator that Cork South Central are prepared to jettison him. Much has been said about the possibility of Michael McGrath one day leading the FF party. On these figures, that day may have to wait. Whilst overall within the constituency there is an even split as to whom is the preferred leader of Fianna Fáil (38pc McGrath vs 37pc Martin), among Fianna Fáil supporters the picture is more concise. 53pc of them prefer Micheál Martin as leader compared to 38pc plumping for McGrath. 7.
Lynch and Buttimer likely casualties in Group of Death (Cont d) Of course, if the ball bounces unkindly for Fianna Fáil during the count next weekend, all bets would be off. Its party supporters may well bare its teeth very quickly. But if we use Cork South Central as a bellwether, then Micheál Martin may be safe for a little bit longer. 8.
Cork South-Central Constituency - First preference (incl/excl Undecideds) First Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows (FF) Michael McGrath 6 (SF) Donnchadh O Laoghaire (FG) Simon Coveney (FF) Micheál Martin (FG) Jerry Buttimer (Ind) Mick Finn (Lab) Ciarán Lynch (GP) Lorna Bogue (Ren) Ciarán Kenneally (Ind) Joe Harris (Ind) Elizabeth Hourihane (Ind) Michael Joseph Mohally (Ind) Diarmaid O Cadhla (AAA/PbP) Jim O Connell (AAA/PbP) Fiona Ryan Don t Know 7 5 5 5 5 5 4 Quota is 0 First Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows (n=430) (FF) Michael McGrath 9 (SF) Donnchadh O Laoghaire (FG) Simon Coveney (FF) Micheál Martin (FG) Jerry Buttimer (Ind) Mick Finn (Lab) Ciarán Lynch (GP) Lorna Bogue (Ren) Ciarán Kenneally (Ind) Joe Harris (Ind) Elizabeth Hourihane (Ind) Michael Joseph Mohally (Ind) Diarmaid O Cadhla (AAA/PbP) Jim O Connell (AAA/PbP) Fiona Ryan 6 6 9 8 7 7 9.
First Preference Party Support Cork South-Central Constituency (incl/excl Undecideds) Including Don t Knows Fine Gael Excluding Don t Knows (n=430) 6 Fine Gael Fianna Fáil AAA/PbP Renua Ireland 3 Sinn Féin 5 th 8th February Incl. DK 5 5 Labour 9 4 Independents The Green Party Don t know Fianna Fáil 36 AAA/PbP Renua Ireland 5 th 8th February Excl. DK 8 Sinn Féin 0 6 Independents The Green Party Labour 0.
First Preference vote X Demographics Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote GENDER AGE SOCIAL CLASS* Male Female <35 35-54 55+ ABC CDE Fianna Fáil 36 33 39 33 35 40 36 37 Fine Gael 6 8 4 7 6 33 7 Sinn Féin 8 3 3 3 4 8 0 4 Independents 0 8 7 7 Labour 6 5 6 4 5 7 7 6 Renua Ireland Green Party 3-3 AAA/PbP * 3 * Farming Community base size to small to be shown for analysis.
Cork South-Central Constituency- Where does the second preference go? Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote (FF) Michael McGrath (FF) Micheál Martin (FG) Simon Coveney (FG) Jerry Buttimer (Ind) Mick Finn (SF) Donnchadh O Laoghaire (Lab) Ciarán Lynch (AAA/PbP) Jim O Connell (Ind) Joe Harris (Ind) Elizabeth Hourihane (Ind) Diarmaid O Cadhla (Ren) Ciarán Kenneally (AAA/PbP) Fiona Ryan (GP) Lorna Bogue (Ind) Michael Joseph Mohally Second Preference Voting Intentions incl. don t knows (n=430) Don t Know 7 6 4 3 * 9 6 3 (FF) Michael McGrath (FF) Micheál Martin (FG) Simon Coveney (FG) Jerry Buttimer (Ind) Mick Finn (SF) Donnchadh O Laoghaire (Lab) Ciarán Lynch (AAA/PbP) Jim O Connell (Ind) Joe Harris (Ind) Elizabeth Hourihane (Ind) Diarmaid O Cadhla (Ren) Ciarán Kenneally (AAA/PbP) Fiona Ryan (GP) Lorna Bogue (Ind) Michael Joseph Mohally Second Preference Voting Intentions Excl. don t knows (n=38) 7 6 4 3 * 9 4 3.
Second Preference Party Support Cork South-Central Constituency Base: All who would give a First Preference Vote Including Don t Knows (n=430) Excluding Don t Knows (n=38) Fine Gael Fianna Fáil 4 36 5 th 8th February Incl. DK Don t know 3 6 4 4 Independents The Green Party Labour Sinn Féin Renua Ireland AAA/PbP Fianna Fáil 4 AAA/PbP Renua Ireland 5 th 8th February Excl. DK 4 6 4 Sinn Féin 7 5 Fine Gael Independents The Green Party Labour 3.
Where do those giving a first preference allocate their second preference (by Party support)? Base: All who would give a First Preference and Second Preference Vote Second Preference Fine Gael Sinn Féin FIRST PREFERENCE Fianna Fáil Independents/others* Fianna Fáil 4 9 6 36 Fine Gael 7 49 6 5 9 Independents 5 5 38 9 3 Sinn Féin Labour AAA/PbP Renua Ireland Green Party 6 4 4 5-4 7 8 8-4 3 3 - - * Includes Independents, AAA/PbP, Green Party & Renua Ireland 4. * Caution should be exercised as base sizes are low (below 50)
One in four are Satisfied with the Government s performance in Cork SC; close to the national average Over One in Four in Cork South-Central are happy with the current performance HIGHER AMONG Age 8-4 74 CDEs 78 Supporters of FF 79 Supporters of SF 97 Dissatisfied (6) Satisfied (9) 6 70 HIGHER AMONG Age 55-64 3 ABs 44 Supporters of FG 69 4 Don t know (9) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) 5. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny HIGHER AMONG CDEs 79 Supporters of FF 8 Supporters of SF 94 Dissatisfied (6) 7 Satisfied (7) HIGHER AMONG Age 55-64 7 ABs 4 Supporters of FG 56 6 Don t know () ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) 6. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with Joan Burton HIGHER AMONG Age 45-54 78 Dissatisfied (6) HIGHER AMONG Age 55+ 7 CDEs 76 Supporters of FF 8 7 9 Satisfied () ABs 4 Supporters of FG 43 Supporters of SF 9 Supporters of Labour* 3 0 Don t know (6) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) * = Caution small base size 7. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin HIGHER AMONG Age 55-64 49 Cs 45 Supporters of FG 46 Supporters of SF 6 Dissatisfied (48) 4 47 Satisfied (7) HIGHER AMONG Age 65+ 58 ABs 53 Supporters of FF 76 Don t know (5) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) 8. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams HIGHER AMONG HIGHER AMONG 7 Satisfied (7) Age 5-34 36 DEs 35 Age 55+ 65 ABCs 65 Supporters of FG 67 Dissatisfied (55) 54 Supporters of SF 73 Supporters of FF 66 9 Don t know (8) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) 9. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton HIGHER AMONG Age 55-64 39 ABs 34 Dissatisfied (4) 3 3 Satisfied (6) HIGHER AMONG Age 65+ 36 ABCs 9 Supporters of FG 3 Supporters of FF 9 46 Don t know (43) ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) 0. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support SATISFIED Enda Kenny (7) Joan Burton () Michéal Martin (7) Gerry Adams (7) Lucinda Creighton (6) Total 9 47 7 3 Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independents /Others* Supporters 56 39 4 5 7 43 3 4 40 43 76 7 33 5 8 73 3 3 9 7 4 DISSATISFIED Enda Kenny (6) Joan Burton (6) 7 7 37 6 8 94 86 40 64 8 9 8 Michéal Martin (48) Gerry Adams (5) 4 54 46 5 3 6 59 67 6 66 6 4. Lucinda Creighton (4) 3 30 30 3 35 Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil? Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin? Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland? * Includes all other parties = Caution small base size ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06)
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Nearly half find Labour or Sinn Féin toxic WOULD NOT CONSIDER Total Supporters Supporters Supporters Supporters Independents/ Others* Supporters Fine Gael (34) 35-33 34 77 50 Labour (3) 46 7-55 77 57 Fianna Fáil (4) 7 38-48 37 Sinn Féin (37) 48 79 46 6-33 Renua Ireland () AAA-People Before Profit (6) 0 6 9 8 4 4 33 7 7 4 9 Green Party (9) 6 9 6 5 6 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) * Includes all other parties = Caution small base size. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?
How certain are voters in their convictions? One in four supporters of Independents/Others have some reservations Base: All Cork South-Central Voters Fine Gael Supporters () Fianna Fáil Supporters (58) Sinn Fein Supporters (7) Independents/Others Supporters* (64) Absolutely certain 44 59 5 44 85 88 88 76 Pretty certain 4 30 36 3 Some reservations Not at all certain Net Score (Any confident minus Any doubters) 0 7 5 3 5 - Don t know - - - - 70 76 76 5 4 4 * Includes Independents, AAA/PbP, Green Party & Renua Ireland 3. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?
As in other constituencies, health and economic issues are of most importance st Mention Health Services/Hospitals (37) Management of the economy () The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing (9) Unemployment/jobs (3) Water Charges (5) Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent (7) Crime/Law and Order (0) Abortion () Ensuring that this constituency has a Government Minister N/A Childcare (3) Issues within my own constituency () Something else () Don't know () 6 8 8 6 * 34 ( )= National Results (Jan/Feb 06) 4. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?
When other issues of importance are added to the mix, the housing situation becomes more pressing st Mention nd Mention 3 rd Mention Any Mention Health Services/Hospitals 34 3 6 73 The homeless situation/lack of Local Authority Housing 8 4 44 Unemployment/jobs 3 36 Management of the economy 6 0 9 35 Water Charges 8 3 3 34 Crime/Law and Order 6 8 4 8 Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/cost of Rent 8 7 8 Childcare 4 4 9 Abortion 3 6 Something else 4 Issues within my own constituency 3 Ensuring that Enda Kenny remains as Taoiseach 3 Don't know * 5. Q. What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?
Michael McGrath has been by far the best performing TD in the constituency, with Ciarán Lynch at the opposite end of both scales Most Effective TD in Cork South-Central Least Effective TD in Cork South-Central Michael McGrath 7 Ciarán Lynch Simon Coveney 6 Jerry Buttimer 3 Micheál Martin Simon Coveney 3 Jerry Buttimer 0 Micheál Martin 9 Ciarán Lynch 5 Michael McGrath None of them 9 None of them 9 Don't know Don't know 33 6. Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency? Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?
Most effective TD x Party Support Most Effective TD in Cork South-Central Fine Gael Supporters Fianna Fáil Supporters Sinn Fein Supporters Independents/Others Supporters* Michael McGrath 7 0 5 0 Simon Coveney 6 44 9 4 Micheál Martin 4 9 3 Jerry Buttimer 0 5 4 4 9 Ciarán Lynch 5 4 7 None of them 9 9 50 3 Don't know 6 8 0 9 * Includes Independents, AAA/PbP, Green Party & Renua Ireland 7. Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been most effective in your constituency?
Least effective TD x Party Support Least Effective TD in Cork South-Central Fine Gael Supporters Fianna Fáil Supporters Sinn Fein Supporters Independents/Others Supporters* Ciarán Lynch 5 7 6 Jerry Buttimer 3 7 8 3 6 Simon Coveney 3 3 0 3 Micheál Martin 9 3 Michael McGrath 3 4 - None of them 9 5 6 9 Don't know 33 36 6 34 5 * Includes Independents, AAA/PbP, Green Party & Renua Ireland 8. Q. In your opinion, which of your local TDs has been least effective (in the Dail/in your area)?
Within the constituency, Simon Coveney is the preferred successor to Enda Kenny. Half of Fine Gael supporters endorse him Simon Coveney 36 Leo Varadkar Frances Fitzgerald None of them Somebody else 5 6 Among FG Supporters: Simon Coveney 50 Leo Varadkar 3 Frances Fitzgerald 7 Somebody else None of them It depends 5 Don't know 5 9. Q. Who from the following options would you like to see as the next leader of Fine Gael?
Opinion is divided overall as to who should lead Fianna Fáil, but FF supporters opt for Micheál Martin Michael McGrath 38 Micheál Martin 37 Among FF Supporters: None of them 9 Micheál Martin 53 Michael McGrath 38 Somebody else None of them 9 Somebody else It depends 3 Don't know 0 30. Q. Who would you prefer to see as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Half within the constituency feel the merger of Cork City Council and Cork County Council is a bad idea SHOULD CORK CITY COUNCIL AND CORK COUNTY COUNCIL BE MERGED? HIGHER AMONG Age 55-64 6 Supporters of Independents/Others* Cs 59 63 No, they should not be merged 5 7 Yes, they should be merged HIGHER AMONG Age 35-44 33 ABCs 3 Supporters of FG 35 5 7 It Depends Don t Know * Includes all other parties 3. Q. Do you think that Cork City Council and Cork County Council should be merged or not?
Nearly one in two feel the Government should pursue Apple for possible unpaid taxes IS THE GOVERNMENT CORRECT IN ITS DECISION NOT TO PURSUE APPLE FOR THE BILLIONS IT MAY OWE IN UNPAID TAXES? HIGHER AMONG Males 50 Supporters of SF 5 Supporters of Independents/Others* 5 No, the Government is incorrect 45 37 Yes, the Government is correct HIGHER AMONG Age 35-44 43 Age 55-64 4 Supporters of FG 43 7 0 It Depends Don t Know 3. Q. In your own opinion, do you think that the Government is correct or not in its decision not to actively pursue Apple for the billions it may owe in unpaid taxes? * Includes all other parties
The voting intentions of the vast majority remain unaffected by the Government s response to the recent flooding crisis WILL THE GOVERNMENT S RESPONSE TO THE RECENT FLOODING CRISIS AFFECT HOW YOU WILL VOTE IN THE UPCOMING GENERAL ELECTION? 8 Made me less likely to vote for them HIGHER AMONG Age 5-34 5 Cs 5 5 Made me more likely to vote for them HIGHER AMONG Age 8-4 80 73 5 Don t Know ABs 80 Supporters of FG 8 Made no difference 33. Q. Will the Government s response to the recent flooding crisis affect how you will vote in the upcoming general election?
The Cork-Dublin divide is as strong as ever Strongly agree There is a strong recovery underway in the economy overall There is a strong recovery underway in the economy in Cork 8 6 4 The Government has focussed on securing an economic recovery in Cork There is too much focus made on securing an economic recovery in Dublin 5 9 Somewhat agree 43 49 4 47 5 8 74 Neither 6 8 3 Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don t know It depends 4 35 35 8 3 3 3 4 * * * * 49 34. Q. Finally, I am going to read out a list of statements that have been made about the economy. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements.
Cork South- Central For more information, please contact: Paul Moran paul.moran@millwardbrown.com 086 34 970 Millbank House Arkle Road Sandyford Dublin 8 t. +353 () 97 4500 www.millwardbrown.com/ie 43688/Paul 35. Moran