CONFLICT BRIEFING NOTES CONFLICT BRIEFING NO. 6, May 016 KEY MESSAGES PAGE 1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY. CONTEXT ANALYSIS & CONFLICT PROFILE Concerns about Human Rights Violation in IDP Camps Budget Crisis Ends as 016 Appropriation Act is Signed Continued Pressure at the Fuel Pump Raises Citizen s Concerns. ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPMENT IN NSRP TARGET STATES POLITICAL SOCIAL ECONOMIC. IMPLICATIONS FOR PROGRAMMING IN NSRP TARGET STATES 5 *Disclaimer: The contents of this briefing note do not necessarily reflect the views of DFID or the UK Government. ** All reports are based on anonymous NSRP sources.
Executive Summary The month of May witnessed sustained improvement in the security situation in the North-East with reports of the rescue of over 1000 persons (mostly women, girls and children) who were held captive in communities recovered from Jamaatu Ahlis-Sunna Liddaawati Wal Jihad (JAS). However, the rescue of captive persons has added pressure to humanitarian efforts. The recent influx of displaced persons at a time relevant government and international humanitarian agencies were mobilizing for relocation of displaced persons to their communities have stretched capacity and impacted on service delivery. Another indicator of the progress on the counter-insurgency initiatives during the month is the rescue of Amina Ali Nkeki, one of the school girls abducted from Chibok in April 01. This raised hopes that many of the Chibok girls may still be alive and would eventually be rescued. However, the special treatment given to the rescued Chibok school girl who was received by President Muhammadu Buhari reignited concerns of the social stigma against thousands of women and girls that have been returning from captivity. President Muhammadu Buhari signed the 016 appropriation bill into law at the joint session of the National Assembly on May 6. This put to rest controversies surrounding the preparation of the Budget. The President had withheld assent to the bill due to allegations that the National Assembly inflated costs within some budget line items. The delayed budget approval had affected government's ability to meet its financial obligations resulting in delays in payment of salaries of civil servants. There were several reports of irregularities, conflicts and cancellation of local council by-elections conducted in the different parts of the country. Although these conflicts did not result in large scale violence, non-resolution of the issues and deferment of announcement of results of inconclusive elections have raised tensions in affected areas and fears of escalation. Across the states, rising cases of criminality including kidnapping, armed robbery, killings and theft continue to pose challenges for security operatives. As with the previous three months, prominent persons and citizens were reported to have been kidnapped in Kano, Kaduna and Bayelsa states. There were also reports of politically-motivated and cult-related killings in parts of the Niger Delta. Context Analysis/Conflict Profile International cooperation against JAS was sustained during the month with Nigeria's hosting of the Security Summit. President Francois Hollande of France commended progress made in counter-insurgency initiatives, but stated that JAS remains a threat to overall peace and security. Hollande called on President Muhammadu Buhari not to relent in the fight against insurgency and corruption which he said were interrelated. President Buhari used the opportunity of the Security Summit to restate the commitment of Nigeria to collaborate with international community on combatting terrorism in the region and across the world. He restated calls for strengthening the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) to tackle terrorism and organized crime. Buhari also refuted reported connections between JAS and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). He said there is no clear evidence linking weapons used by JAS insurgents to ISIS rather the insurgent group acquired its sophisticated weaponry from the various military barracks and police stations it attacked.
Concerns about human rights violations and poor treatment of IDPs persist Rights groups such as Amnesty International continue to report that the military successes have come at the cost of rights violation. Amnesty reported that about 19 detainees, including children have died in detention. Also as the ongoing clearance operations gain momentum, the humanitarian challenges continue to mount for the region. The number of IDPs in displacement continues to swell in Maiduguri due to the liberation of communities from JAS. The expected return of more displaced persons has led to increased humanitarian needs. National and international agencies are mobilizing to address the needs. For instance, the UN has relocated UN Humanitarian Coordination Centre to Maiduguri and increased the programming to address the improvement of IDPs through greater coordination and dialogue with other humanitarian actors. Budget crisis ends as 016 Appropriation Act is signed The official signing of the 016 Appropriation Law by President Buhari signified the resolution of the disagreement between Executive and Legislative arms of Government on the budget. Delays in approval of the budget had affected government operations and the national economy given the role of government expenditure in the national economy. The resolution of disagreement dispelled fears that the lingering controversy on the budget would lead to deepening of political crisis arising from the leadership tussle in the National Assembly. Continued pressure at the fuel pump raises citizen concerns Fuel scarcity persisted in the month with motorists, traders and commuters frustrated by long queues in petrol stations. The Federal Government announced removal of subsidies for petrol products in a bid to address the perennial fuel crisis. The increase in pump price of petrol from N86.50 to N15 generated mixed reactions from Nigerian citizens, prompting the Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) and Trade Union Congress (TUC) to declare an industrial action to push for the reversal of the withdrawal. However, the strikes were ineffective due to internal disagreements with labour which made some factions to boycott the strikes and the refusal of most Nigerians who have been used to buy fuel at higher rates than the new price to join. Labour called off the strikes after overtures from some respected and influential Nigerians. Analysis of developments in NSRP target states in North East, North West, Middle Belt and the Niger Delta Borno State Governor Kashim Shettima reportedly criticised some members of the state Chapter of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) during an event to distribute relief materials to IDPs in Maiduguri together with the National Logistics Committee on Distribution of Relief Materials. Shettima reportedly said the politicians who left us to our troubles in the last five years only to come back when peace has returned to the state to tell us that Jonathan's administration was better than the present, should be stoned just like the Satan is stoned at the Kaaba. There are concerns that these provocative statements constitute hate speech as they are capable of inciting Shettima's followers against some opposition politicians. The crisis affecting the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) in Kano persisted with the reported decision of the National Executive of the party to cancel the removal of Alhaji Umar Haruna Doguwa and Sunusi Kwankwaso respectively as Chairman and State Organizing Secretary by the state chapter of the party. Governor Abdullahi Umar Ganduje has refused to recognise the two party officials but continues to recognise his ally Mr. Abdullahi Abbas as Acting Chairman of the Party. Also electoral violence, ballot box snatching and ballot box stuffing were reported during the by-election in Minjibir Local Government Area (LGA) in Kano State. The election was held to fill the vacuum created by the death of the member representing Minjibir in the State House of Assembly. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) suspended the elections due to the elections sparking protests by aggrieved politicians.
The Plateau State Chapter of the Peoples' Democratic Party (PDP) elected Mr Damishi Sango, the former Minister of Sport, as the State Chairman of the party. The contested party election witnessed some conflict amongst party members in the Plateau North Senatorial District over the zoning of positions adopted for the election party officials. There were allegations that Senator Jonah Jang the immediate past governor tried to impose his candidates in order to retain control of the party. The party chairmanship has reportedly been zoned to the Plateau North Senatorial District with the hope of zoning the Governorship ticket to the Southern Senatorial District to compete with the incumbent Governor in the next election. The controversies surrounding the inconclusive by-elections in Rivers State persisted following allegations by the PDP that was planning to release fake results for Tai State Constituency. INEC had suspended announcement of results of election in the areas where there were reports of irregularities and violence. PDP members allege the plan to release the result is evidence that INEC was biased in favour of the APC. Social The return of Amina Ali Nkeki of Chibok from Sambisa forest raised concerns about the return of women and girls from captivity. She was one of 65 young girls rescued by the military actors from Sambisa forest. However, her reported desire to return to her husband raised concerns about the state of mental health of women and girls returning from captivity. Among those released were 1 other young pregnant girls and other girls and women who were released with small children who had been born in captivity. The Zim Community in Ropp District of Barkin Ladi LGA in Plateau State was reportedly attacked by herdsmen. The attack breaks the three month cessation of unprovoked perennial attacks against villages under the cover of darkness. It was reported that a 8year old man, Mr Dazi Bulus, was killed during the attack through a gun shot while other women and children sustained various degrees of injury as they attempted to flee the scene of the attack. Consequently, severe residents were said to have fled their homes th for fear of follow-up attacks. The last attack in the area before this recent incident was on the 15 of February 016 in Kwall village of Bassa LGA when alleged gunmen killed two students of ANAN School of Accountancy. Rivers State remained the site of cult-related clashes, communal violence, kidnappings, armed robbery and bloody clashes between gangs and security operatives. The security threats were compounded by increased proliferations of dangerous small arms and light weapons. Alleged cult related killings occurred in Oboburu, Okposi, Ogbogu, Akabuka and Idu communities in the Ogba/Egbema/Ndoni Local Government Area (ONELGA). Five police officers travelling to Bayelsa State were ambushed and killed and their weapons carted away in Okogbie community in Ahoada West LGA. Heavily armed young armed robbers attempted to rob a bank in Port Harcourt City LGA. In Port Harcourt, alleged cult gang members shot a court guard during intra-cult gang conflict/supremacy war and attempted to break into the prison to prevent trial of their rivals and their eventual release. Economic The rising costs of living and food stuff in particular, as the Muslim Fasting of Ramadan approaches is generating serious concerns across the country especially as several state governments delayed payment of salaries of civil servants. The Plateau State Governor promised to commence the signing and issuance of Certificate of Occupancies (C of O) after a break of about five years. He acknowledged the insecurity situation in the state as a major reason for the non-issuance of the certificate. He indicated that 55,000 C of O will have been signed by May th 9 016 as an indication of the commencement of its issuance to all Nigerians and not necessarily indigenes of Plateau alone. In the Niger Delta, the shortage in supply of fuel has not been helped by intermittent acts of sabotage and oil pipeline vandalisation which has persisted despite the best efforts of security operatives in the region. President Muhammadu Buhari said that the oil pipeline vandals would be treated the same way as JAS insurgents by the Nigerian authorities and military. However, this gives cause for concern for two reasons: the grievances of both groups are not expressed or manifest in the same way; and the president's statement was perceived as antagonistic and more likely to aggravate the situation.
Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the North East This month marked improvements in the security situation in the North East as the military sustained the offensive against the insurgency. Consequently, the humanitarian situation continues to present challenges as individuals continue to move from recovered communities to IDP camps and host communities in Maiduguri. Grievances from both host communities and IDPs have the potential to affect social cohesion of the host community by pitching host community members against IDPs and government representatives as happened in comparative international contexts. Therefore, it is recommended that programmes working on humanitarian support and peacebuilding integrate social cohesion and reintegration activities with both IDPs and host community members into on-going initiatives. Grievances by both host community and IDPs regarding continued relocation from school compounds to host communities will increase over time if there are no programmes on social cohesion and reintegration activities. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in Kano The reports of electoral violence including box snatching and ballot stuffing resulted in the suspension of the by-election in Minjibir Local Government Area (LGA) in Kano State suggests that citizen trust in electoral processes is low and there is strong demand for free and fair electoral systems among citizens. Therefore, it is recommended that programmes working on governance and peacebuilding advocate for transparency and accountability by political actors and electoral actors such as INEC to decrease the tensions around electoral periods. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Middle Belt (Plateau and Kaduna) The month of May witnessed renewed small scale violence in Barkin Ladi LGA in Plateau State. After three months free of violent conflict, this uptick in violence raises concerns about potential continuation of violence in the region. It is recommended that programmes on peacebuilding and governance working in the Middle Belt region continue to facilitate dialogue around inter-religious conflict issues to assure that all the conditions are met by the parties. Implications and Recommendations for Programmes in the Niger Delta (Rivers, Bayelsa, and Delta) There was continued sabotage and oil pipeline vandalisation which have been contributed to shortages in fuel nationwide. However, government's position that oil vandals will be treated as JAS insurgents has not helped to mitigate the tensions but has rather led to worsening of tensions between the Federal government and aggrieved people of the Niger Delta region. It is recommended that programmes working on security sector reform, natural resource management and peacebuilding should initiate advocacy with the Federal Government on the need for more nuanced policies and practices regarding the crime, violence and instability in the Niger Delta region. These advocacy messages should stress the need to be more conflict and gender sensitive in approaches to mitigating violent conflict in the region. 5