MIGRANTS, ASYLUM SEEKERS AND REFUGEES: SCALE, TRENDS, GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS? Demetrios G. Papademetriou Distinguished Senior Fellow and President Emeritus, MPI President, MPI Europe September 2017
1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Number of Persons Refugees, Asylum Seekers, and Internally Displaced Persons, 1951-2016 40.000.000 35.000.000 30.000.000 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 Refugees Asylum Seekers IDPs 5.000.000 - * Statistics on internally displaced persons were not reported until 1993, and on asylum seekers until 2000. The refugee figures on this chart are taken from the UNCHR Population Statistics Database. The database only includes those refugees under UNHCR s mandate, and thus excludes the 5.3 million Palestinians registered by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). Source: UNHCR
Top 5 Refugee Producing and Hosting Top refugee-producing countries: 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Syria (5.5 million) Syria (4.9 million) Syria (3.9 million) Afghanistan (2.6 million) Afghanistan (2.6 million) Afghanistan (2.5 million) Afghanistan (2.7 million) Afghanistan (2.6 million) Syria (2.5 million) Somalia (1.1 million) South Sudan (1.4 Somalia (1.1 million) Somalia (1.1 million) Somalia (1.1 million) Iraq (750,000) million) Somalia (1 million) South Sudan (780,000) Sudan (670,000) Sudan (650,000) Syria (730,000) Sudan (650,600) Sudan (630,000) South Sudan (620,000) Democratic Republic of the Congo (500,000) Sudan (570,000) Top refugee-hosting countries: Countries, 2012-2016 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 Turkey (2.9 million) Turkey (2.5 million) Turkey (1.6 million) Pakistan (1.6 million) Pakistan (1.6 million) Pakistan (1.4 million) Pakistan (1.6 million) Pakistan (1.5 million) Iran (860,000) Iran (870,000) Lebanon (1 million) Lebanon (1.1 million) Lebanon (1.2 million) Lebanon (860,000) Germany (590,000) Iran (979,400) Iran (980,000) Iran (980,000) Jordan (640,000) Kenya (560,000) Uganda (940,800) Ethiopia (740,000) Ethiopia (660,000) Turkey (610,000) Syria (480,000) Source: UNHCR
Top Refugee Producing and Hosting Countries, 2016, Africa Top refugee-producing countries Top refugee-hosting countries 459,400 650,600 490,900 791,600 537,500 408,100 1,000,000 1,400,000 452,000 451,000 940,800 Sources: UN, UNHCR
Top Refugee Producing and Hosting Countries, 2016, Middle East Top refugee-producing countries Top refugee-hosting countries 2,900,000 5,500,000 2,500,000 1,000,000 979,400 685,200 1,400,000 Sources: UN, UNHCR
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Monthly Arrivals to Europe through the Mediterranean, 2014-2017* 240.000 220.000 200.000 180.000 160.000 140.000 120.000 100.000 80.000 60.000 40.000 20.000 0 EU-Turkey Deal; Closure of Western Balkans 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 Yearly Arrivals * These data are for all Mediterranean crossings: through the Aegean to the Greek islands; through the Central Mediterranean to Italy (and Malta); and through the Western Mediterranean to Spain. 2017 figures updated through August 2017. ** Please note the scale; each line represents 20,000 entrants. Sources: UNHCR, Frontex
Number of Persons Monthly Arrivals to Europe through the Mediterranean, 2014-2017* 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 Closure of the Western Balkans, an initiative primarily of Austria, and EU- Turkey Deal Germany suspends the Dublin Regulation** for Syrians Germany opens its borders to migrants amassing in South Central Europe 2014 2015 2016 2017 50.000 0 * 2017 figures updated through August 2017. ** The Dublin Regulation stipulates that the first Member State in which an asylum seeker arrives normally must adjudicate his or her application. Source: UNHCR
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Arrivals to Italy, 2014-2017 (Central Mediterranean) 30.000 20.000 2014 2015 2016 10.000 0 2017 Yearly Arrivals 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000 0 Updated through August 2017. * Please note the scale; each line represents 10,000 entrants. Sources: UNHCR, Frontex
Arrivals to Greece, 2014-2017 (Eastern Mediterranean/Aegean) 250.000 200.000 150.000 Germany suspended the Dublin Regulation for Syrians on August 21, 2015, and opened its borders to all migrants on September 5, 2015. 2014 2015 2016 2017 100.000 50.000 0 The EU-Turkey agreement went into effect on March 20, 2016. 900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 - Yearly Arrivals Updated through August 2017. * Please note the scale; each line represents 50,000 entrants. Sources: UNHCR, Frontex
Country of Origin: Arrivals to Italy January 2015 - March 2016 (EU-Turkey Deal) Other; 17% Ghana; 3% Bangladesh; 3% Côte d'ivoire; 3% Eritrea; 23% January 2017 - September 2017 (note the disappearance of Eritreans and Somalis) Morocco; 3% Mali; 4% Nigeria; 15% Syria; 4% Senegal; 4% Sudan; 6% Gambia; 6% Somalia; 8% Ghana; 4% Others; 15% Nigeria ; 18% Morocco; 5% Sudan ; 5% Eritrea; 6% Bangladesh; 10% Guinea; 10% Updated September 7, 2017. Senegal; 6% Côte Mali; 6% Gambia; d'ivoire; 9% 6% Source: UNHCR
Country of Origin: Arrivals to Greece January 2015 March 2016 (EU-Turkey Deal) Pakistan; 3% Iran; 3% Other; 4% Iraq; 11% January 2017 - September 2017 (note the dramatic drop in the Afghan totals) Syria; 55% Others; 18% Afghanistan; 25% Afghanistan; 7% DRC; 6% Syria; 40% Algeria; 5% Updated September 4, 2017. Source: UNHCR Pakistan; 4% Stateless; 4% Palestine; 4% Iraq; 14%
Asylum Applications in Select European Countries, 2015-2017* 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 2015 2016 2017 200.000 100.000 0 Austria France Germany Hungary Italy Norway Spain Sweden United Kingdom * Updated September 7, 2017, with data through July 2017. Not all Member States have reported monthly data through July 2017. ** Numbers will shift slightly as some migrations move to another country. Source: Eurostat
Germany is No Stranger to Migration Crises: Asylum Claims Submitted in Germany, 1989-95* 500.000 450.000 400.000 350.000 300.000 250.000 200.000 150.000 100.000 50.000-1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Total: over 1.6 million Region of Origin 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Africa 12,479 24,210 36,094 67,408 37,571 17,341 19,877 Asia 52,740 82,982 74,489 84,804 69,322 50,370 86,608 Europe** 53,365 79,549 142,785 282,201 213,577 58,049 57,947 Americas 320 400 292 353 279 206 261 Other/unknown 2,414 5,922 2,452 3,425 1,865 1,244 2,258 * This period reflects the movements following the collapse of the USSR and German reunification. ** Eastern Europe and farther east Source: UNHCR
EU-Turkey Statement: What the EU Really Wants A dramatic reduction in the number of migrants and asylum seekers entering Europe through Turkey (achieved, in tandem with the closure of the Western Balkans route) A complete change in the way these flows come to the EU (legal, safe, orderly) through a resettlement program (barely begun) Buy itself time to: See if circumstances can change enough in Syria and Turkey so as to reduce the incentives for coming to Europe (happening, but not as envisioned) Persuade reluctant EU Member States to participate in a substantial resettlement program (not happening yet) Generate interest in a deeper global response to resettlement (September UN jamboree) (a major effort, but the U.S. election has thrown a curve in its implementation)
EU-Turkey Statement: What Turkey (and Especially Erdoğan) Really Wants Respect: first and foremost (as a means to accomplish his personal ambition: a presidential system, à la France GOAL COMPLETED) A place near the center of the political and policy table on anything that has to do with the region (Middle East but also East Africa) Becoming the indispensable regional player (accomplished) Safe zones ( de-escalation zones ) in Syria (lots of dangers but even more virtuous cycles associated with such an effort) This is a top priority for Erdoğan under any scenario (with Iran and Russia on board and the US once more open-minded about it, it is likely to move forward in some form) Room for Erdoğan to continue to play out his passions when it comes to the Kurds in Turkey, Syria, and Iraq (Russia and Iran have created space for him to make progress on this goal)
Three Governance Challenges in Particular Feed Popular Concerns Immigrant integration: A Record of Various Forms (and Degrees) of Failure Managing Migration (Much) Better in Order to Reap More of its Benefits Controlling Spontaneous Immigration and Resisting the Irresponsible Growth of Immigration
Key Judgments There are no magic bullets left anywhere on this issue; the perception of governance failure is ruling the day and societies natural centrifugal forces are growing stronger Germany and the other affected EU states (most of Europe is not) are determined not to have a repeat of 2015. Period! And they have been successful so far The Turkey deal is constantly on the brink of unravelling; uncertain outcomes every step of the way The continuing emphasis on the Turkey deal improperly downplays the perhaps more important role that the Austria-led closure of the Balkan route has had on the flows through the Aegean Migrants are rational actors, and rational actors do not want to be stuck in Greece! Supporting Syrians in Jordan and Lebanon seems to have become a political priority and it must continue to be so
Key Judgments (continued) Italy and Germany are chomping at the bit to have a Libyan deal focusing on operating jointly with Libya s navy in Libya s territorial waters so as to prevent boats setting off for Europe and, as of late, floating the idea of a EU mission to help Libya secure its border with Niger, and thus stop migrants there The beginning of the end of search, rescue and complete the goal of smugglers and their human cargo by taking those rescued to Europe Deepening interest in examining most claims (particularly of those who have been rescued at sea) in processing zones outside of Europe Most other major receiving countries also experience a form of buyer s remorse about both illegal immigration and the vetting, size and geographic distribution of asylees and resettled refugees. Canada is a major exception Is this an inflection point or a bump in the road? Only time will tell.
Brussels appears to be reluctant to support a deal with Libya that mimics that with Turkey too ethically troubling (doubtful), too expensive, and unconvinced that the internationally recognized government has effective control over much of Libya including of key disembarkation points To recap Key Judgments (continued) Nothing but textbook cases of Hobson s choices Restoring legality and borders, and guarding against terrorism, have become and will continue to be top tier issues for most advanced democracies Working more effectively with first asylum and transit countries to restore migration order and protect refugees in first asylum countries is finally on the way to becoming a top foreign policy priority
Key Judgments (continued) Humanitarian impulses the natural human tendency to want to respond generously toward those who flee heart-wrenching situations are competing with nationalism-fueled populism for the hearts and minds of undecided citizens Too early to project who will win or how long such a victory will last Integration has replaced flow management issues as the number one policy issue for the European states most affected by the migration crisis but has not crossed the Atlantic and reached the US...the most multicultural of states Integration remains the policy terrain on which immigration policies (regardless of form) succeed or fail.