Federal Education: Of Elections &Politics. Oh, and Policy. Noelle Ellerson December 2014
Climates & To-Do List Funding State and local budgets have yet to reach prerecession levels Sequestration at the federal level Political.partisan, and battle of the wills between Cong and the admin State Government Trend in legislation and policy to undermine public education Annual approps process ESEA IDEA Higher Education Early Ed (Head Start and CCDBG) Perkins Career/Tech Other WOIA ESRA
Election Rewind: State Elections US Senate (+7 GOP) GOP Holds: AL, GA, ID, KS, KY, ME, MS, NE, OK (2), SC, TN, TX, WY GOP Pick Ups: AR, CO, IA, MT, NC, SD, WV GOP Losses: none TBD: AK, LA US House (+13 GOP) 15 GOP pick-ups, two losses Gubernatorial (+4 GOP) GOP Holds: AL, AZ, FL, GA, ID, IA, KS, ME, MI, NE, NV, NM, OH, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, WI, WY GOP Pick Ups: MA, MD, IL, AR GOP Losses: PA TBD: AK
Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate Control of the 113 th Senate (2012-2014) Control of the 114 th Senate (2014-2016) Democratic Republican Independent Undecided 2 2 53 45 44 52 Total Seats Democrats: 53 Republicans: 45 Independents: 2 Total Seats Democrats: 44 Republicans: 52 Independents: 2 Undecided: 2 Analysis Having won most of this year s competitive races, Republicans secured at least 52 Senate seats on election night, flipping the Senate from blue to red Additional GOP wins in Louisiana and Alaska are still possible Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News. If Republicans eventually expand their majority to 54 seats, they will have an easier time passing legislation in the Senate because they will need fewer Democratic defections to overcome filibusters (which require a 60 vote supermajority) Source: National Journal Research.
Republicans Win Solid Majority in Senate 2 Democrats 2 Republicans Control of the 114 th Senate (2015-2017) 1 Democrat + 1 Republican 1 Democrat + 1 Independent 1 Republican + 1 Independent Undecided/Runoff May take until Nov. 18th to count all votes CA OR WA NV ID UT AZ MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS OK MN IA MO AR WI IL IN MI TN KY OH PA WV VA SC NC NY VT ME NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD MS AL GA AK AK HI TX LA Runoff election will be held on December 6, 2014 FL Democrats: 44 Republicans: 52 Independents: 1 Undecided: 2 Analysis Having won most of this year s competitive races, Republicans secured at least 52 Senate seats on election night, flipping the Senate from blue to red Additional GOP wins in Louisiana and Alaska are still possible If Republicans eventually expand their majority to 54 seats, they will have an easier time passing legislation in the Senate because they will need fewer Democratic defections to overcome filibusters (which require a 60 vote supermajority) Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.
Republicans Win Record Majority in House Control of the 113 th House (2012-2014) Democratic Republican Vacant Undecided* 199 233 Control of the 114 th House (2014-2016) 17 175 243 AK Total Seats Democrats: 199 Republicans: 233 Vacancies: 3 AK Total Seats Democrats: 175 Republicans: 243 Undecided: 17 Analysis Republicans won a total of at least 243 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928 An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections * Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6 Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center, November 2014.
Republicans Win Record Majority in House Control of the 114 th House (2015-2017) Democratic Republican Undecided* AK Democrats: 175 Republicans: 243 Independents: 0 Undecided: 17 Analysis Republicans won a total of at least 243 seats in the House, their largest majority since 1928 An expanded GOP majority in the House means that Speaker Boehner will have an easier time passing legislation in the House without Democratic support, and Republicans will also have an easier time holding on to their majority in future elections * Races not called as of 6am 11/5/2014; includes runoff elections to be held in LA-5 and LA-6 Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; The New York Times.
Republicans Extend Gubernatorial Advantage Dem Governor Map of State Governors by Party GOP Governor Undecided* AK WA OR NV CA AK ID UT AZ MT WY CO NM ND SD NE KS TX OK MN IA MO AR LA WI IL MS IN MI TN AL KY OH GA PA WV VA SC NC NY VT ME NH MA RI CT NJ DE MD Democrats: 15 Republicans: 31 Independents: 0 Undecided: 3 FL HI *Race not called as of 6 AM 11/5 Analysis While Republicans already controlled most governors mansions prior to 2014 elections, gains in Arkansas, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, and Connecticut added to the GOP s sizeable majority of governorships Legislative activity at the state level has taken on increased importance in recent years due to gridlock at the federal level; as such, increased GOP control of governorships nationwide could give Republicans additional leverage to achieve policy goals at the state level Source: National Journal Research; CNN Election Center; Associated Press; NBC News.
ESEA: White House vs. House vs. Senate Waivers! Standards, Accountability and Assessment School Improvement/Turn Around Funding Portability Maintenance of Effort Comparability Funding Flexibility Ed Tech RttT and i3
Source: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities How Has State K-12 Funding Fared in Your State?
Appropriations: FY14 & FY15 The final FY14 appropriations package restored roughly 80% of all sequester cuts. USED received an amount that covered roughly 65% of its cuts. Impact Aid: fully restored Title I and IDEA have most of cuts restored (~90%) REAP left at post-sequester level For FY15, the reality is that level funding is a good year and even a nominal increase (Title I or IDEA) is a huge success. Just because this is the reality does not mean we have to like it, or that we should applaud Congress for level funding.
Federal Funding: Sequestration Unless rescinded, sequestration return in FY16 FY15 reality is such that most programs are still not to pre-sequester levels Continued push to isolate cuts to non-defense discretionary Important to keep the pressure on Congress to protect education funding, preferably through avoiding sequester, if not at least ensuring cuts are to ALL of the budget
E-Rate: AASA Advocacy Win! Over the last 18 months, AASA has been involved in a very deliberate effort to modernize E-Rate AASA supports two-pronged approach: funding increase AND programmatic changes Confluence of momentum and support Full set of FCC Commissioners Ongoing effort of FCC and USAC staff President s ConnectEd proposal Pressure of online testing and feedback from the field
E-Rate: Impacting Schools The core of the program is still the same. Category One and Category Two remain in place, with comparable functionality. Poverty indicator is now district level (not school-based). Legacy services will be phased out (phone, webhosting, paging, etc ). How rural is defined, though your classification shouldn t change. Reduction of top-level discount (from 90% to 85%) Immediate order to consider permanent raising of the cap FCC vote on Dec 11!
IDEA 3 yrs past due for reauthorization Improved Due Process System Simplified IEP Full funding of IDEA is AASA s top legislative priority Looking to increase MoE flexibility and access to local waiver
Other Topics School Nutrition Early Learning Charters PCBs in Light Ballasts Health Care: Medicaid claiming and supporting Seclusion and Restraint Student Data & Privacy Equity: Excellent Educators for All Perkins CTE
Questions? Comments? Want more federal advocacy news and updates? Become an AESA Member! AASA Blog: www.aasa.org/aasablog.aspx Weekly Update and Monthly legislative updates Toolkits (ACA, E-Rate, ALEC, etc)
Questions? Noelle Ellerson nellerson@aasa.org @Noellerson @AESA_adv