Testing the Utopia of Borderless World: Visa Policies, South- South Migration and Urban Crime in Ecuador Feline Freier, PhD candidate, LSE, Government l.f.freier@lse.ac.uk Kyle Holloway, MA, University of British Columbia, Economics kholloway@poverty- action.org
Ecuador s Controversial Open Doors Policy We are in the middle of a campaign to dismantle the invention of the 20 th century of passports and visas. - Rafael Correa, 17 May 2008 Universal visa freedom implemented on 20 June 2008 Partial reversal on 1 December 2008 and 3 September 2010
The Political Salience of the Case Study Correa is a consumptive patient, whose cough is infecting everyone else. - Marcel Salamin, July 2008 Ecuador is causing the instability of all of the Americas. - Mario Zamora, July 2008 Visas for the importers of crime! - Jaime Nebot, November 2010
Research Questions Did the open doors policy lead to increasing south- south immigration? What are the aspirations and capabilities of south- south immigrants? Did increasing south- south immigration increase crime in Ecuador?
Did the open doors policy lead to increasing south- south immigration?
Countries affected by Open Door Policy
Methodological Considerations: Natural Experiment vs. Difference- in- Difference Comparative interrupted timeseries design with partial reversal of initial treatment (Meyers 1995) The source of variation of the visa policy was exogenous to changing immigration flows. Peru as comparable control group Comparison of immigration flows from restricted and unrestricted countries before and after the policy change
Natural Experiment
Annual Net Migration Flows from Speci`ic PRCs Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011 (*countries for which visas have been reintroduced)
Chinese Net Migration to Ecuador 2008-2010 2500$ Treatment 16.06.2008 Partial reversal of Treatment 01.12.2008 2000$ 1500$ 1000$ 500$ 0$!500$!1000$ Jan!08$ Feb!08$ Mar!08$ Apr!08$ May!08$ Jun!08$ Jul!08$ Aug!08$ Sep!08$ Oct!08$ Nov!08$ Dec!08$ Jan!09$ Feb!09$ Mar!09$ Apr!09$ May!09$ Jun!09$ Jul!09$ Aug!09$ Sep!09$ Oct!09$ Nov!09$ Dec!09$ Jan!10$ Feb!10$ Mar!10$ Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011 Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011 Apr!10$ May!10$ Jun!10$ Jul!10$ Aug!10$ Sep!10$ Oct!10$ Nov!10$ Dec!10$ Chinese$net$migraDon$
Asian Net Migration to Ecuador and Peru 2008-2010 3000% 2500% 2000% 1500% 1000% 500% 0%!500%!1000%!1500% Treatment 20.06.2008 Jan!08% Feb!08% Mar!08% Apr!08% May!08% Jun!08% Jul!08% Aug!08% Sep!08% Oct!08% Nov!08% Dec!08% Jan!09% Feb!09% Mar!09% Apr!09% May!09% Jun!09% Jul!09% Aug!09% Sep!09% Oct!09% Nov!09% Dec!09% Jan!10% Feb!10% Mar!10% Apr!10% May!10% Jun!10% Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011 Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011 Partial reversal of Treatment 03.09.2010 Jul!10% Aug!10% Sep!10% Oct!10% Nov!10% Dec!10% Asian%net%migraCon%Ecuador%% Asian%net%migraCon%Peru%%
African Net Migration to Ecuador and Peru 2008-2010 200$ Treatment 20.06.2008 Partial reversal of Treatment 03.09.2010 150$ 100$ African$net$migraBon$Ecuador$$ African$net$migraBon$Peru$$ 50$ 0$ Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011 Jan!08$ Feb!08$ Mar!08$ Apr!08$ May!08$ Jun!08$ Jul!08$ Aug!08$ Sep!08$ Oct!08$ Nov!08$ Dec!08$ Jan!09$ Feb!09$ Mar!09$ Apr!09$ May!09$ Jun!09$ Jul!09$ Aug!09$ Sep!09$ Oct!09$ Nov!09$ Dec!09$ Jan!10$ Feb!10$ Mar!10$ Apr!10$ May!10$ Jun!10$ Jul!10$ Aug!10$ Sep!10$ Oct!10$ Nov!10$ Dec!10$!50$ Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador, 2011
Difference- in- Difference
Annual Immigrant Flows from Speci`ic PRCs
Difference- in- Difference Design Result: Ecuador s policy of open doors led to a 28-30% average increase of monthly migration from PRCs.
What are the aspirations and capabilities of south- south migrants?
Migrants Aspirations Tourism 90 day visit Visa Overstayers Irregular stay & work Obtaining residence status Criminal Activities Irregular Transmigration Forced Migration
Determinants of South- South Immigration:
Abandoned Asylum Applications (until June 2011) COUNTRY ERITREA CHINA BANGLADESH SOMALIA ETHIOPIA NEPAL HAITI PAKISTAN NIGERIA CUBA KENYA ASYLUM APPLICATIONS ABANDONED APPLICATIONS ABANDONED IN PER CENT 97 82 85% 94 59 63% 187 93 50% 23 10 44% 48 20 42% 52 21 40% 965 356 37% 344 99 29% 311 88 28% 5,735 734 13% 1 0 0% Source: Own elaboration based on data of the Dirección de Migración de Ecuador
Migrants Aspirations Tourism 90 day visit Visa Overstayers Irregular stay & work Obtaining residence status Criminal Activities Irregular Transmigration Forced Migration
Did increasing south- south immigration increase crime in Ecuador?
Estimating the Relationship between South- South Immigration and Urban Crime Results: A 1% increase in PRC immigrant `lows is associated with a 0.08% increase in property crimes and a 0.17% decrease in violent crimes. Given the 28-30% average increase of monthly migration from PRCs, the policy change is associated with an 2.2-2.4% increase in property crime and a 4.8-5.1% decrease in violent crime.
Policy Reactions & Conclusion
Thank you!
Policy effects on PRCs: