It s the Democrats Turn National Voter Survey of Likely 2016 Voters. January 16, 2015

It s the Democrats Turn National Voter Survey of Likely 2016 Voters January 16, 2015

Methodology This research was a joint project of Democracy Corps, the Women s Voices Women Vote Action Fund, and the Voter Participation Center. The Voter Participation research related to nonpartisan questions regarding policy topics. The survey polled 950 2016 voters from January 7-11, 2015. Respondents who voted in the 2012 election or registered since were selected from the national voter file. Likely voters were determined based on stated intention of voting in 2016.* Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 likely voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample= +/-3.2 percentage points at 95% confidence. Margin of error will be higher among subgroups. 50 percent of respondents were reached by cell phone, in order to account for ever-changing demographics and trying to accurately sample the full American electorate. *This is a change in methodology for Democracy Corps surveys, which were previously conducted using Random Digit Dialing. 2

Key Findings Democrats are back: Despite a dispiriting off-year and big consequential losses at the federal and state level, the presidential electorate is open to and enthusiastic about a Democratic agenda and Democratic candidates. White working class voters will be key: Whether 2016 can be turned into a big enough year to take back a lot of territory in the Congress and states and whether the presidential candidate can build a formidable wall depends on Democrats and Hillary Clinton doing better with white working class voters, both men and women. The President and the Democratic party are up: There has been a big change in the mood of the country Obama s approval is up 4 points to 48 percent approve (with 48 percent saying they disapprove). Right direction is up nearly 10 points. The presidential race begins robustly for Clinton: Clinton begins with a 6 point lead over Romney and 12 points over Jeb Bush. That result is produced by a surprising level of party consolidation among Democrats and Republicans, though Clinton is winning independents right now in either contest. An expanded Democratic coalition strongly backs Clinton: The Rising American Electorate (RAE) and Democratic coalitions including college-educated women is bigger and fairly strong for Clinton. This could produce a big presidential vote. Democrats still have room to grow with unmarried women and blue collar whites: But the starting strategic challenge is whether the Democrats messages, narrative and policy agenda can lift support with unmarried women and the broader RAE as well as the white working class in its great diversity. 3

4 Key Findings (continued) Key groups are dealing in a tougher economy and a different mood: Both unmarried women and blue collar whites see the path to the middle class as increasingly precarious and feel that they are not doing as well as they should be Jobs do not pay enough to live on, and while the middle class pays a lot in taxes they do not feel the country works for them. Economic advocacy and reform are critical: Policies that appeal to the RAE, unmarried women and blue collar whites are all embedded in a broader economic reform agenda that is stronger than any narrative Republicans are offering. These voters are struggling economically and react against an unresponsive and gridlocked government, reform is as essential as economic advocacy to these voters. An economic agenda that put women at the center sells: An economic message that focuses on women scores no differently than an economic message that does not mention gender. There is no price for bringing in the pay equity as policy with men or working class men.

The Shifting Mood 5

6 New GOP congressional leaders toxic already Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 51.0 Net: +8 50 Mean: 48.6 Mean: 48.0 45 42 Mean: 44.4 36 34 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 41.9 Mean: 40.0 34 27 20 15 12 11 7 8 7 30 Mean: 37.7 Net: +2 Net: -1 Net: -11 Net: -15 Net: -21 Net: -22 Mean: 36.6 Net: -24 Mean: 36.4 Net: -27 21 23 21 34 34 31 32 36 37 33 34 33 42 43 43 47 49 51 43 47 48 Barack Obama Hillary Clinton Dem Party Dems in Congress GOP Party GOP in Congress Jeb Bush Mitch McConnell John Boehner

7 Favorable ratings for Democrats improve as GOP ratings decline Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with 100 meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and 50 meaning not particularly warm or cold. 2010 Election Barack Obama Democratic Party Democrats in Congress Republican Party Republican Congress 2012 2012 2014 Election 2014 Election 56 53 54 51 51 51 51 49 49 48 48 47 47 50 46 47 46 45 45 46 45 44 45 46 45 44 44 46 46 46 43 45 44 42 50 51 5152 52 50 50 50 48 46 46 46 46 43 44 41 42 42 39 39 43 43 43 42 41 40 39 41 55 54 55 53 50 48 49 49 48 48 47 47 47 45 45 47 45 46 45 45 45 45 45 44 43 43 44 43 43 43 41 42 41 40 39 39 39 41 39 51 51 42 46 49 47 44 45 43 40 40 39 49 48 46 44 43 41 39 39 38 35 49 46 45 45 4344 42 41 43 37 51 48 44 42 40 Dec-10 Apr-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Aug-12 Dec-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 *Note: From Democracy Corps surveys conducted in the past 4 years. Data represents MEAN ratings.

8 Dramatic improvement in voter mood Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track 2011 58 56 65 59 58 61 75 76 2012 2012 2014 Election 76 69 59 65 59 60 58 62 5555 52 59 64 68 2014 Election 63 65 69 68 68 61 36 33 33 29 26 28 16 15 19 29 34 36 33 32 32 39 39 40 42 32 28 23 18 29 27 26 25 23 32 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15

9 Big change in mood of the country right direction is up by nearly 10 points Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track 68 61 23 32 November 2014 January 2015

10 Obama s approval rating edges up Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve Disapprove 44 50 48 48 November 2014 January 2015

Presidential Election 11

12 Clinton ahead of Romney and doubles her margin against Bush I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush? Clinton Romney Clinton Bush +6 +12 49 43 52 40 Clinton Romney Clinton Bush Initial vote

13 Parties consolidated with Clinton winning Independents against Romney I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney? Clinton Romney +6 +89 +3-86 92 90 49 43 43 40 3 4 Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Total Democrats Independents Republicans

14 Party bases still consolidated and Independents lean towards Clinton more strongly against Bush I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush? Clinton Bush +12 +91 +8-84 95 87 52 40 46 38 4 3 Clinton Bush Clinton Bush Clinton Bush Clinton Bush Total Democrats Independents Republicans

15 Clinton wins a big majority of voters who stayed home in 2014 I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney? Clinton Romney +6 +12 +6 49 43 52 40 49 43 Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Total Drop-Off Voters 2014 Voters

16 Clinton vs. GOP: Gender gap very real but marriage gap more so I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney/Jeb Bush? Clinton GOP +10 +1 +17 +7 +29 51 41 45 44 56 39 51 44 62 33 Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Clinton GOP Total Men Women Married Women Unmarried Women

17 RAE, unmarried women and college women can deliver a national win for Clinton, but needs working class too I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney? +6 +24 Clinton Romney +27 +30 +57 +33 72 49 43 58 59 63 63 34 32 33 30 15 Total RAE Millennial Unmarried Women Minority College Women

18 Hillary s win comes with less than 1/3 support among white non-college I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney? Clinton +6-28 -28 Romney -29-30 49 43 60 59 32 31 33 62 60 30 Total White Non-College White NC Men White NC Women White Seniors

19 Hillary gains with white working class women but against Bush I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Jeb Bush? Clinton +12-18 -25 Bush -9-11 52 40 37 55 33 58 42 51 37 48 Total White Non-College White NC Men White NC Women White Seniors

The Mood Among Key Groups 20

21 Unmarried women are most pessimistic about the country s direction of all the base groups Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? -29 Right Direction Wrong Track -14-17 -2 +4-14 61 32 52 53 38 36 46 48 46 42 37 51 Total RAE Unmarried Women Millennials Minority College women

22 Deep dissatisfaction and pessimism among white working class and seniors Generally speaking, do you think that things in this country are going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track? -29 Right Direction Wrong Track -56-59 -53-57 76 78 74 76 61 32 20 19 21 19 Total White Non-College White Non-College Men White Non-College Wmn White Seniors

23 Unmarried women still cautious about president: almost 40 percent disapprove Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? - +26 Approve Disapprove +18 +28 +59 +20 77 61 57 62 58 48 48 35 39 34 38 18 Total RAE Unmarried Women Millennial Minority College Women

24 Older and blue collar voters are deeply negative Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? Approve - -38-46 Disapprove -32-34 67 71 64 66 48 48 29 25 32 32 Total White Non-College White NC Men White NC Women White Seniors

25 Country divided over the core middle class promise Now let me read you some short statements. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view. Getting to or staying in the middle class is harder than ever and nearly impossible with so many jobs that don t pay enough to live on. Times are tough but those who work hard can still reach or stay in the middle class. Middle Class Blocked much Middle Class Attainable much +3 50 47 30 24 Middle Class Disappearing Middle Class Attainable

26 Unmarried women and minorities most likely to see middle class blocked, but sizeable minority of Millennials too Now let me read you some short statements. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view. Getting to or staying in the middle class is harder than ever and nearly impossible with so many jobs that don t pay enough to live on. Times are tough but those who work hard can still reach or stay in the middle class. Middle Class Blocked much Middle Class Attainable much +3 +6 +19 +4 +9 58 50 51 52 47 45 47 51 39 43 47 +3 50 30 30 38 24 22 16 27 25 32 28 19 17 Total RAE Unmarried Women Millennials Minority College Women

27 Blue collar women are more pessimistic on middle class attainability than blue collar men Now let me read you some short statements. Please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view. Getting to or staying in the middle class is harder than ever and nearly impossible with so many jobs that don t pay enough to live on. Times are tough but those who work hard can still reach or stay in the middle class. Middle Class Blocked much Middle Class Attainable Much +3 50 47 52 46 +6 +4 +14 +6 47 51 56 50 42 44 30 32 30 35 24 26 27 25 30 25 Total White Non-College White Non- College Men White Non- College Wmn White Seniors

Making sure jobs pay enough to live on is the top priority for this electorate, along with government reform Now I want to ask you about government. I am going to read you a list of statements that describe what some people believe about the role of government today. After I read the list, please pick the three you believe are the most important. 2016 LV s Making sure jobs pay enough to live on 38 Helping working families 36 Reducing special interest influence in government Helping middle-class families Promoting greater equality for women and others 27 35 32 Progressive advocacy agenda Helping the most vulnerable 24 Getting control of America's borders Reducing the size and reach of the federal government Ending welfare abuse 36 33 33 Right-wing populism Helping small businesses 29 Neutral Reform 28

29 Democratic base groups lean toward the progressive advocacy agenda, especially making sure jobs pay enough Now I want to ask you about government. I am going to read you a list of statements that describe what some people believe about the role of government today. After I read the list, please pick the three you believe are the most important. Unmarried Women RAE Making sure jobs pay enough to live on 54 Making sure jobs pay enough to live on 49 Helping working families 36 Helping middle-class families 40 Helping middle-class families 35 Helping working families 36 Promoting greater equality for women and others Reducing special interest influence in government 34 29 Promoting greater equality for women and others Reducing special interest influence in government 35 29 Helping the most vulnerable 29 Helping the most vulnerable 27 Ending welfare abuse 32 Ending welfare abuse 30 Getting control of America's borders Reducing the size and reach of the federal government 26 22 Getting control of America's borders Reducing the size and reach of the federal government 26 23 Helping small businesses 28 Helping small businesses 30

30 Blue collar white women also focused on pay and all blue collar groups select reforming government Now I want to ask you about government. I am going to read you a list of statements that describe what some people believe about the role of government today. After I read the list, please pick the three you believe are the most important. White Non-College White Non-College Men White Non-College Women Making sure jobs pay enough to live on Reducing special interest influence in Helping middle-class families Helping working families Promoting greater equality for women Helping the most vulnerable Getting control of America's borders Reducing the size and reach of the federal 33 30 27 25 20 17 50 42 Reducing special interest influence in Making sure jobs pay enough to live on Helping working families Helping middle-class families Promoting greater equality for women Helping the most vulnerable Reducing the size and reach of the federal Getting control of America's borders 17 13 27 27 27 35 52 51 Making sure jobs pay enough to live on Helping middle-class families Reducing special interest influence in Helping working families Promoting greater equality for women Helping the most vulnerable Getting control of America's borders Ending welfare abuse 39 27 26 23 22 19 49 43 Ending welfare abuse Helping small businesses 39 31 Ending welfare abuse Helping small businesses 35 37 Reducing the size and reach of the federal Helping small businesses 33 26

The policy agenda that reaches 31

32 Democrats outpace GOP in looking out for women and men (and men and women) Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue. Looking out for working women and men GOP Much Better 36 Dem Much Better 16 34 54 Dem -GOP +18 Looking out for working men and women 36 19 33 51 +15 Looking out for the interests of working people 38 20 34 51 +13 Looking out for the interests of the middle class 39 20 35 51 +12 Being on my side 36 21 31 46 +10 Addressing issues important to me 38 23 30 48 +10 The economy 46 25 22 41-5

33 Democrats receive high ratings from RAE on economic advocacy Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue. RAE Looking out for working women and men GOP Much Better 22 Dem Much Better 9 43 67 Dem -GOP +45 Looking out for the interests of the middle class 23 11 42 63 +40 Looking out for the interests of working people 26 13 43 63 +37 Addressing issues important to me 24 12 39 61 +37 Looking out for working men and women 26 10 39 60 +34 Being on my side 25 12 41 58 +33 The economy 34 17 27 53 +19

34 Unmarried women also give Democrats a wide margin on middle class advocacy Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue. Unmarried Women GOP Much Better Looking out for the interests of working people 23 11 Dem Much Better 47 70 Dem -GOP +47 Looking out for the interests of the middle class 23 12 42 65 +43 Addressing issues important to me 23 12 43 66 +43 Looking out for working men and women 26 9 42 66 +40 Looking out for working women and men 28 11 43 63 +35 Being on my side 26 14 38 58 +32 The economy 33 18 29 55 +22

35 White non-college voters give GOP advantage on economic advocacy Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think (ROTATE) the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue. White Non-College GOP Much Better Looking out for the interests of working people 50 Dem Much Better 29 23 37 Dem -GOP -13 Looking out for working men and women 51 28 24 37-14 Addressing issues important to me 48 32 19 31-17 Looking out for working women and men 56 26 19 35-21 Being on my side 53 33 14 29-24 Looking out for the interests of the middle class 59 32 21 32-27 The economy 62 35 13 26-36

36 The Democratic agenda includes advocacy for working families, general Democratic policies and progressive reform policies Social Security/Medicare: Protect Medicare and Social Security so there is no reduction in benefits, and keep the politicians' hands off Social Security so today's and tomorrow's seniors can retire with security. Working Mothers: Help working mothers by making sure they have access to affordable child care, have paid sick days to care for themselves and their children, and protect pregnant workers from being fired or demoted. Infrastructure Jobs: Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new good paying jobs by investing in infrastructure, such as modernizing schools, improving roads, bridges, and airports, and investing in clean energy alternatives that create more new jobs. Reform Government: Streamline government and reduce waste and bureaucracy to make sure every dollar spent is a dollar spent serving people, not serving government. Equal Pay: Make sure working women have equal pay to men for doing the same work and, make it possible for women to work in management positions by rewarding companies that provide leave policies that make it possible for all employees to work and balance their work and family needs. College Affordability: Make college more affordable by expanding the tuition tax credit that allows students to claim up to four thousand dollars for higher education expenses. Get serious and provide free tuition at community colleges or technical schools for all qualified high school graduates.

37 Social Security and Medicare top priorities for key groups, reforming government and jobs are also popular Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by Democrats as part of their plan to deal with the economy. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive about their plan, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Protect Medicare and Social Security 65 79 Much more positive Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new good paying jobs by investing in infrastructure 61 85 RAE Help working mothers with access to affordable child care, paid sick days and protect pregnant workers from being fired 61 81 Protect Medicare and Social Security Streamline government and reduce waste and bureaucracy Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new good paying jobs by investing in infrastructure 68 64 61 79 85 85 Unmarried Women Protect Medicare and Social Security Streamline government and reduce waste and bureaucracy Create a long term plan to rebuild America and create new good paying jobs by investing in infrastructure 52 46 43 66 78 79 White Non- College

38 The Republican agenda includes general Republican policies and right wing populist policies Fiscal Responsibility: Require lawmakers to pass a budget or withhold their pay, and require Congress to review programs deemed wasteful and redundant. Regulation: Small businesses are strangled by unnecessary regulation, complex and increasing taxes, and high energy prices. We need to loosen the regulation that is stifling small businesses to make it easier for them to grow and expand. Balanced Budget: Cut government spending immediately and pass a Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget every year, so that we aren't spending more than we can afford. Spending: Reduce unnecessary government spending and put an end to wasteful government programs to start resolving the trillion-dollar debt crisis, putting America back on a responsible track and giving certainty to investors and businesses. Welfare: Reduce welfare spending by helping move more Americans from welfare to work by investigating cases of welfare fraud, and drug testing those who receive government help like food stamps and cash benefits. Energy/Keystone: Promote lower energy prices through a comprehensive plan that includes increasing domestic production of oil, developing alternative energy sources such as wind and nuclear energy, advancing clean coal technology, and building the Keystone pipeline, which would create jobs and reduce our dependence on foreign oil.

39 Appetite for reform evident in responses to GOP agenda Now I am going to read you some things being proposed by Republicans as part of their plan to deal with the economy. After each item, please tell me whether that policy makes you feel much more positive about their plan, somewhat more positive about their plan, a little more positive, or not at all positive. Cut government spending immediately and pass a Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget every year 46 68 Much more positive Loosen the regulation that is stifling small businesses to make it easier for them to grow and expand 42 64 RAE Require lawmakers to pass a budget or withhold their pay, and require Congress to review programs deemed wasteful 38 69 Cut government spending immediately and pass a Constitutional amendment requiring a balanced budget Require lawmakers to pass a budget or withhold their pay, and require Congress to review programs deemed wasteful Reduce welfare spending by helping move more Americans from welfare to work 48 43 42 64 68 72 Unmarried Women Reduce welfare spending by helping move more Americans from welfare to work Loosen the regulation that is stifling small businesses to make it easier for them to grow and expand 59 58 77 82 White Non- College Promote lower energy prices through a comprehensive plan 58 80

Economic Frame 40

41 Reform and Economic messages are equally successful among 2016 likely voters Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better...tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. (Combined Econ Agenda) People are drowning because jobs don't pay enough to live on. We need leaders who know what it's like to work hard every day and still struggle to pay the bills. We must help people with affordable college, job training, and childcare. (Working families should earn wages that keep up with the cost of living/women must get equal pay so working women and families can keep up.) We must help the vulnerable by reducing taxes for low-wage workers and give a tax break for lower and middle class working families. And we must always protect Social Security and Medicare. We need an economy that works for working people and the middle class again. Very Convincing 71 39 (Reform) There is too much money in politics and government. Big corporations and lobby groups spend millions getting their candidates elected, and then get tax breaks and special laws that protect their special interests. Billions are spent on government programs that are often out dated or don't even work--but special interests and government bureaucracy protect them. We need leaders who will clean up Washington by restricting the campaign dollars that come in, changing programs that don't work and using that money to help middle class working families--not big campaign donors. Very Convincing 72 40

42 Republican messages less strong among this electorate Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Republican leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. (GOP Establishment Msg) Democrats failed to get our economy back on track. The middle class is struggling with declining paychecks, high unemployment, and rising costs. We must tighten our borders and make sure only those in this country legally who can support themselves can stay, and we need to reform the welfare system so more people have the opportunity to work. We need less government regulation and should fully harness our resources by building the Keystone Pipeline. We can bring back opportunity and stimulate job creation if we just get government out of the way and allow energetic and entrepreneurial Americans to rebuild the economy from the ground up. Very Convincing 53 28 (Tea Party Msg) Government is out of control. The United States is so in debt that generations of Americans will pay for our bad decisions. Bureaucracy and bloated government continue to force skyrocketing spending. President Obama has seized more power through executive orders that force new policies on Americans without Congress' consent, using departments like the IRS to investigate enemies, and secret wiretaps to spy on our own citizens. We need to dramatically cut the power of the federal government, restore the Constitution, reign in the ability of the executive branch to make unilateral policy decisions, and put more power in the hands of local governments and individuals. Very Convincing 51 33

43 Both Economic and Reform messages outperform GOP messages Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic/Republican leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. Dem Messages GOP Messages 72 71 53 51 40 39 28 33 Reform Economic Establishment Tea Party

44 Economic and Reform Messages are equally effective among blue collar whites Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better...tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. Reform Agenda Very Convincing Econ Agenda Very Convincing 72 71 66 67 64 62 68 71 40 39 36 35 36 29 36 41 Total White Non- College White Non- College Men White Non- College Women

45 Economic message more effective among women Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better...tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. Reform Agenda Very Convincing Econ Agenda Very Convincing 72 71 78 78 80 75 40 39 43 44 40 48 Total RAE Unmarried women

46 Very little differentiation between an economic message frame that mentions gender and one that does not Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better...tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. (Women Econ Agenda) People are drowning because jobs don't pay enough to live on. We need leaders who know what it's like to work hard every day and still struggle to pay the bills. We must help people with affordable college, job training, and childcare. Women must get equal pay so working women and families can keep up. We must help the vulnerable by reducing taxes for low-wage workers and give a tax break for lower and middle class working families. And we must always protect Social Security and Medicare. We need an economy that works for working people and the middle class again. Very Convincing 71 38 (Working Families) People are drowning because jobs don't pay enough to live on. We need leaders who know what it's like to work hard every day and still struggle to pay the bills. We must help people with affordable college, job training, and childcare. Working families should earn wages that keep up with the cost of living. We must help the vulnerable by reducing taxes for low-wage workers and give a tax break for lower and middle class working families. And we must always protect Social Security and Medicare. We need an economy that works for working people and the middle class again. Very Convincing 71 39

47 Including women in the economic message does not alienate blue collar men Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better...tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. Women Agenda Very Convincing Working Families Very Convincing 71 71 68 66 65 60 70 71 38 39 35 35 32 38 25 43 Total White Non- College White Non- College Men White Non- College Women

48 Both agendas work well among groups of women in the base Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better...tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. Women Agenda Very Convincing Working Families Very Convincing 71 71 77 78 80 79 78 81 38 39 40 47 46 49 49 36 Total Women Unmarried women College women

49 Reform opens voters to progressive economic narrative Now, thinking ahead to the presidential elections in 2016, I am going to read you something Democratic leaders are saying about how things in this country could be better. Please tell me whether you find it a very convincing, somewhat convincing, a little convincing, or a not at all convincing statement about how things in this country could be better. People are drowning because jobs don't pay enough to live on. We need leaders who know what it's like to work hard every day and still struggle to pay the bills. We must help people with affordable college, job training, and childcare. (Working families should earn wages that keep up with the cost of living/women must get equal pay so working women and families can keep up.) We must help the vulnerable by reducing taxes for low-wage workers and give a tax break for lower and middle class working families. And we must always protect Social Security and Medicare. We need an economy that works for working people and the middle class again. Very Convincing Somewhat Convincing 74 67 43 32 Reform First Econ First

50 Middle Class message strongest frame overall Now let me read you some short statements. For each one, please tell me which statement is a better reason to support Democrats' economic plan. +17 The middle class is getting squeezed. They pay more taxes but get the least help. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds. +15 Working men and women are drowning in a new economy where hard work and playing by the rules don't mean a job that pays the bills. It's time for an economic plan that puts working families first. 0 America can't survive if we only take care of the richest few. We must give everyone the opportunity to succeed. We all do better when we all do better.

51 Working Families frame works best among unmarried women Now let me read you some short statements. For each one, please tell me which statement is a better reason to support Democrats' economic plan. Unmarried Women +11 Working men and women are drowning in a new economy where hard work and playing by the rules don't mean a job that pays the bills. It's time for an economic plan that puts working families first. +2 America can't survive if we only take care of the richest few. We must give everyone the opportunity to succeed. We all do better when we all do better. +13 The middle class is getting squeezed. They pay more taxes but get the least help. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds.

52 Middle Class and Working America messages much stronger than Everyone message among blue collar whites Now let me read you some short statements. For each one, please tell me which statement is a better reason to support Democrats' economic plan. White Non-College The middle class is getting squeezed. They pay more taxes but get the least help. When the middle class succeeds, America succeeds. +25 +19 America can't survive if we only take care of the richest few. We must give everyone the opportunity to succeed. We all do better when we all do better. +14 Working men and women are drowning in a new economy where hard work and playing by the rules don't mean a job that pays the bills. It's time for an economic plan that puts working families first.

Messaging and policy agenda helps Democrats make gains on advocacy and the economy 53 Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think (ROTATE) the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue. Initial: Looking out for working women and men Reask: Looking out for working women and men 36 32 54 57 Dem Gain +7 Initial: Looking out for the interests of the middle class Reask: Looking out for the interests of the middle class 39 37 51 53 +4 Initial: Looking out for working men and women Reask: Looking out for working men and women 36 35 51 53 +3 Initial: Looking out for the interests of working people Reask: Looking out for the interests of working people 38 38 51 54 +3 Initial: The economy Reask: The economy 46 45 41 43 +3

54 Movement towards Clinton against the stronger GOP opponent indicates some room for growth I know it's a long way off, but thinking about the election for President in 2016, if the election for President were held today, would you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Mitt Romney? Clinton Romney +6 +6 +9 49 50 51 43 44 42 Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Clinton Romney Initial Revote Final Vote

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