ADB 1H6 GLOBAL CRISIS, REMITTANCES, AND POVERTY IN ASIA B 384387 Asian Development Bank
CONTENTS Foreword iii Acronyms and Abbreviations '.". xvii Contributors I...-.,;-:: xix Chapter 1: Introduction 1 Guntur Sugiyarto A. Background : 1 B. Motivation and the Main Purpose of the Study 2 C. Organization of the Book 4 Chapter 2: Effects of Global Crisis on Remittance and Poverty in Asia 5 Guntur Sugiyarto and Ernesto Pernia A. Introduction 5 B. The Pros and Cons 8 C. The Latest Progress 11 D. Distilling Key Lessons from the Study Results 11 E. Results Summary 14 1. Global Asia 14 2. Bangladesh 14 3. Indonesia 15 4. Pakistan 16 5. The Philippines 17 6. VietNam 19 7. Overall i 21 8. Migrants and Their Families 23 F. Conclusions and Policy Implications 27 1. Policy Implications 27 2. Other Key Issues 28 Chapter 3: A Macro View of the Impacts of International Remittances: Changing Measures, Changing Results? 31 Guntur Sugiyarto and Carlos Vargas-Silva A. Introduction 31 B. The Ideal Measure of Remittances 32 VII
viii Contents C. Estimation Procedures 34 D. Empirical Results 36 1. Economic Growth 36 2. Poverty.". 37 3. Consumption, Exports, and Investment 38 E. Conclusion and Implications 38 F. Tables 39 Chapter 4: Effects of Global Crisis on Remittances and Poverty: Country Case Studies 49 A. Bangladesh 49 Selim Raihan and Guntur Sugiyarto 1. Introduction 49 2. Effects of the Global Crisis 50 3. Remittances A..r. 52 4. Ready-Made Garment Exports 53 5. Conclusion and Policy Implications 55 6. Tables 56 B. Indonesia 64 Kecuk Suhariyanto, Guntur Sugiyarto, and Ahmad Avenzora 1. Introduction 64 2. Effects of the Global Crisis ~ 65 a. Labor migration and remittances 65 b. Remittances in household incomes 68 c. Remittances and consumption expenditure patterns 70 d. Remittances, poverty, and inequality 72 3. Conclusion and Policy Implications 73 4. Tables 74 C. Pakistan ;.' 78 Vaqar Ahmed and Guntur Sugiyarto 1. Introduction 78 2. Crises, Migration, and Remittances 79 a. External shocks and developing economies 79 b. Remittance flows to Pakistan during the global crisis 81 3. Previous Research on Remittances to Pakistan : 83 4. Pakistan's Rising Remittances: Initiatives and Response to Crisis 86
Contents ix 5. Impact of Global Financial Crisis on Pakistani Exports 89 6. Quantifying the Impact of Remittances 91 a. Macro and meso level effects 91 b. Welfare analysis 93 7. Conclusion 96 8. Tables 97 D. Philippines 104 Alvin P. Ang and Guntur Sugiyarto 1. Introduction 104 2. Crisis and Demand for Migrant Workers 105 3. Cushioning the Impact on Migrants and Their Families 109 4. Impact of the Crisis on Host Countries 113 5. Impact of the Crisis on Households with Migrant Members 115 a. Impact of international remittances on the income ranking of households. i...r. 116 b. Impact of the global economic crisis on the income ranking of remittance-receiving households 117 6. Conclusion and Recommendations 118 7. Tables 119 E. VietNam 124 Nguyen Due Thanh, andhoang Thi Chinh Thon 1. Introduction 124 2. An Overview of International Remittances to Viet Nam 124 3. Related Previous Studies 127 4. International Remittances and Poverty in Viet Nam: An Update 131 a. Data sources 131 b. Poverty: A brief assessment 132 c. Receipt of international remittances 133 d. Summing up 134 5. Impacts of Remittances on Poverty: A Microeconometric Analysis 134 a. Model specification and data 134 b. Results and interpretations 135 6. Impacts of Remittances at Macro and Sector Levels Using a Computable General Equilibrium Model 136 a. Model and data ; 136 b. Simulation results 138 7. Key Findings and Policy Implications 139 8. Tables 141
x Contents Chapter 5: Impact on Migrants and Their Families: Survey-Results 159 Guntur Sugiyarto A. Introduction 159 B. Main Results 160 1. Profile of Migrants and Migrant Households 160 2. Knowledge and Expectations about the Crisis 163 3. Impact on Out-Migration 165 4. Impact on Household Income 165 5. Impact on Savings and Investments 167 6. Impact on Remittance Dynamics '...-...-;: 170 7. Migrant Household Coping Mechanisms 171 8. Migrant Worker Coping Mechanisms 173 9. Assistance to Migrant Households 175 C. Conclusion and Policy Implications 175 D. Tables : : 178 ^ Appendix: Survey Design and Methodology 186 i. Bangladesh 186 ii. Indonesia 187 iii. Philippines 187 References 189 Box Box4B.l: Data Source Susenas 69 Figures Figure 2.1: Global Remittances and Other Financial Flows, 1991-2010 7 Figure 2.2: Trends of Remittance Inflows, 2002-2014 12 Figure 4A.1: Effects of Remittance Shock on Various Aspects of the Economy 52 Figure 4A.2: Effects of a Reduction in Ready-Made Garment Exports on Sectoral Outputs and Prices 54 Figure 4B.1: Trends of Indonesian Exports and Imports ($ billion) 65 Figure 4B.2: Number of Indonesian Migrant Workers by Gender, 1994-2009 66 Figure 4B.3: Occupational Distribution of Migrant Workers, 2007 66 Figure 4B.4: Number of Indonesian Migrant Workers by Major Destination Countries, 1994-2009 67 Figure 4B.5: Province of Origin of Indonesian Migrant Workers, 2007 67 Figure 4B.6: Total Migrant Workers and Remittances in Indonesia, 1994-2009 68 Figure 4B.7: Share of Household Income by Source and Migrant Status, 2007 (%) 70 Figure 4C.1: Pakistan: Workers' Remittances, 1998-2010 (S million) 82