This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Similar documents
This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume Title: The Inflation-Targeting Debate

Innovation. Policy. and. the Economy. National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume 7. edited by Adam B. Jaffe, Josh Lerner, and Scott Stern

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume Title: Analyses in the Economics of Aging

Volume Title: Science and Engineering Careers in the United States: An Analysis of Markets and Employment

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume Author/Editor: Sebastian Edwards, editor

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume Title: The Risks of Financial Institutions

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume Title: Globalization and Poverty

Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press. Volume ISBN: ; (cloth) Volume URL:

Volume Title: International Trade in Services and Intangibles in the Era of Globalization

Volume Author/Editor: Katharine G. Abraham, James R. Spletzer, and Michael Harper, editors

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: The Analysis of Firms and Employees: Quantitative and Qualitative Approaches

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Author/Editor: David Card and Richard B. Freeman. Volume URL:

Volume Title: Housing and the Financial Crisis. Volume Author/Editor: Edward L. Glaeser and Todd Sinai, editors

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: The Political Economy of American Trade Policy. Volume URL:

Volume Title: The Regionalization of the World Economy. Volume URL:

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research. Volume Title: The Economics of Food Price Volatility

Volume Title: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5. Volume Author/Editor: David Bradford, editor. Volume URL:

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: Health and Welfare during Industrialization. Volume Author/Editor: Richard H. Steckel and Roderick Floud, Eds.

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: Differences and Changes in Wage Structures. Volume URL:

Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press, Volume URL:

Volume Title: Transition in Eastern Europe, Volume 2, The. Volume URL:

Volume Author/Editor: John B. Shoven and John Whalley, editors. Volume URL:

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Author/Editor: Jeffrey Frankel and Miles Kahler, editors. Volume Publisher: The University of Chicago Press

Volume Title: Empirical Studies of Strategic Trade Policy. Volume Author/Editor: Paul Krugman and Alasdair Smith, editors

Chapter URL:

Volume Title: The Macroeconomics of Populism in Latin America. Volume URL:

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

Volume Title: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis. Volume URL:

Volume URL: Chapter Title: Front matter, "Issues in Pension Economics"

Volume Title: Well Worth Saving: How the New Deal Safeguarded Home Ownership

Volume Title: Federal Tax Policy and Charitable Giving. Volume URL:

Volume URL: Chapter Title: Front matter, R&D, Patents, and Productivity

Volume URL: Chapter Title: Front matter, The Defining Moment

Volume URL: Chapter Author: Gary Fromm, Richard Schmalensee. Chapter URL:

Economic Development in the Americas since 1500 Endowments and Institutions

Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press. Volume URL:

Chapter URL:

Volume URL: Chapter Title: Front matter, "Money in Historical Perspective"

Evaluation: Papers, 30 percent; Research proposal, 30 percent; Class participation, 40 percent.

Volume Title: The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series. Volume URL:

Boundary Control Subnational Authoritarianism in Federal Democracies

Volume Author/Editor: Frederick R. Macaulay. Volume URL:

Chapter URL:

Volume Author/Editor: Gerardo della Paolera and Alan M. Taylor. Volume URL:

Self-Financed Candidates in Congressional Elections

Appendix A REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT ON THE ACTIVITIES OF THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS DURING 1984

The Politics of Major Policy Reform in Postwar America

Volume URL:

1973, UC Berkeley, Political Science, with honors 1975, Columbia University, International Affairs 1983, UCLA, Political Science

Volume Title: Export Diversification and the New Protectionism: The Experience of Latin America

Race and the Politics of Welfare Reform

A CONTEMPORARY APPROACH TO RACE, CLASS, AND GENDER

This PDF is a selection from an out-of-print volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research

law and development of middle-income countries

negotiating state and non-state law

Economic Interdependence and International Conflict

Bawn CV July Kathleen Bawn. Associate Professor Department of Political Science phone: UCLA fax:

-1- CURRICULUM VITAE. Ronald L. Rogowski Los Angeles, California (310)

Democracy and Redistribution

Comparative Constitutional Design

Andrew Kerner Department of Political Science, Michigan State University Center For Political Studies, University of Michigan

General Editors: Paul Collier and Jan Willem Gunning Published in association with the Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford

The Political Economy of Globalization

the Structural Foundations of Monetary Policy

Human Nature and Public Policy

Volume Title: Small-Scale Industry in the Soviet Union. Volume URL:

PATERNALISM. christian coons is Assistant Professor of Philosophy at Bowling Green State University.

Politics, Policy, and Organizations

Editors: Diether W. Beuermann and Moisés J. Schwartz

NBER. Reporter. Program Report. International Trade and Investment. Microeconomics of The Trading Firm. NBER Service Brings You New Data for Free

Volume Title: Immigration and the Foreign Born. Volume Author/Editor: Simon Kuznets and Ernest Rubin. Volume URL:

Tennessee Orthopaedic Society By-Laws (As Amended on August 29, 2003)

KENNETH A. SCHULTZ. Employment Professor, Department of Political Science, Stanford University, September 2010-present

Power and Willpower in the American Future

Volume Title: Trade and Structural Change in Pacific Asia. Volume URL:

31183_U00.qxd 9/15/06 2:28 PM Page i Subjectivity s o

American Mathematical Society. Council Minutes. Chicago, Illinois. 05 April 2008 at noon. Prepared 17 April Abstract

A HISTORIOGRAPHY OF THE MODERN SOCIAL SCIENCES

Volume Author/Editor: Paul Krugman, editor. Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press. Volume URL:

Global empires and revolution,

The Original Position

Advances in Economics and Econometrics

From the Great Wall to the New World: China and Latin America in the 21st Century

WHEN WAS LATIN AMERICA MODERN?

Religious Practice and Democracy in India

This PDF is a selec on from a published volume from the Na onal Bureau of Economic Research

NATIONALISM AND THE NATION IN THE IBERIAN PENINSULA Competing and Conflicting Identities (edited with Clare Mar-Molinero)

Consortium of Social Science Associations

BOOKS Trading Barriers: Immigration, and the Remaking of Globalization (Forthcoming, Princeton University Press)

Transcription:

This PDF is a selection from a published volume from the National Bureau of Economic Research Volume Title: The Decline of Latin American Economies: Growth, Institutions, and Crises Volume Author/Editor: Sebastian Edwards, Gerardo Esquivel and Graciela Márquez, editors Volume Publisher: University of Chicago Press Volume ISBN: 0-226-18500-1 Volume URL: http://www.nber.org/books/edwa04-1 Conference Date: December 2-4, 2004 Publication Date: July 2007 Title: Front matter, table of contents Author: Sebastian Edwards, Gerardo Esquivel, Graciela Márquez URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c10650

The Decline of Latin American Economies Growth, Institutions, and Crises

A National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report

The Decline of Latin American Economies Growth, Institutions, and Crises Edited by Sebastian Edwards, Gerardo Esquivel, and Graciela Márquez The University of Chicago Press Chicago and London

Sebastian Ewards is the Henry Ford II Professor of International Economics at UCLA s Anderson Graduate School of Management and a research associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. Gerardo Esquivel is a professor of economics at El Colegio de Mexico, and Graciela Márquez is a professor of history at El Colegio de Mexico. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 60637 The University of Chicago Press, Ltd., London 2007 by National Bureau of Economic Research All rights reserved. Published 2007 Printed in the United States of America 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 09 08 07 1 2 3 4 5 ISBN-13: 978-0-226-18500-2 (cloth) ISBN-10: 0-226-18500-1 (cloth) Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The decline of Latin American economies : growth, institutions, and crises / edited by Sebastian Edwards, Gerardo Esquivel, and Graciela Márquez. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN-13: 978-0-226-18500-2 (cloth : alk. paper) ISBN-10: 0-226-18500-1 (cloth : alk. paper) 1. Latin America Economic conditions. 2. Latin America Economic policy. 3. Latin America Politics and government. 4. Latin America History. I. Edwards, Sebastian, 1953 II. Esquivel, Gerardo. III. Márquez, Graciela. HC125.D384 2007 330.98 dc22 2006101997 o The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials, ANSI Z39.48-1992.

National Bureau of Economic Research Officers Elizabeth E. Bailey, chairman John S. Clarkeson, vice-chairman Martin Feldstein, president and chief executive officer Susan Colligan, vice president for administration and budget and corporate secretary Robert Mednick, treasurer Kelly Horak, controller and assistant corporate secretary Gerardine Johnson, assistant corporate secretary Directors at Large Peter C. Aldrich Elizabeth E. Bailey John H. Biggs Andrew Brimmer John S. Clarkeson Don R. Conlan Kathleen B. Cooper George C. Eads Jessica P. Einhorn Martin Feldstein Jacob A. Frenkel Judith M. Gueron Robert S. Hamada Karen N. Horn Judy C. Lewent John Lipsky Laurence H. Meyer Michael H. Moskow Alicia H. Munnell Rudolph A. Oswald Robert T. Parry Marina v. N. Whitman Martin B. Zimmerman Directors by University Appointment George Akerlof, California, Berkeley Jagdish Bhagwati, Columbia Ray C. Fair, Yale Michael J. Brennan, California, Los Angeles Glen G. Cain, Wisconsin Franklin Fisher, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Saul H. Hymans, Michigan Marjorie B. McElroy, Duke Joel Mokyr, Northwestern Andrew Postlewaite, Pennsylvania Uwe E. Reinhardt, Princeton Nathan Rosenberg, Stanford Craig Swan, Minnesota David B. Yoffie, Harvard Arnold Zellner (director emeritus), Chicago Directors by Appointment of Other Organizations Richard B. Berner, National Association for Business Economics Gail D. Fosler, The Conference Board Martin Gruber, American Finance Association Arthur B. Kennickell, American Statistical Association Thea Lee, American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations William W. Lewis, Committee for Economic Development Robert Mednick, American Institute of Certified Public Accountants Angelo Melino, Canadian Economics Association Jeffrey M. Perloff, American Agricultural Economics Association John J. Siegfried, American Economic Association Gavin Wright, Economic History Association Directors Emeriti Carl F. Christ George Hatsopoulos Lawrence R. Klein Franklin A. Lindsay Paul W. McCracken Peter G. Peterson Richard N. Rosett Eli Shapiro Arnold Zellner

Relation of the Directors to the Work and Publications of the National Bureau of Economic Research 1. The object of the NBER is to ascertain and present to the economics profession, and to the public more generally, important economic facts and their interpretation in a scientific manner without policy recommendations. The Board of Directors is charged with the responsibility of ensuring that the work of the NBER is carried on in strict conformity with this object. 2. The President shall establish an internal review process to ensure that book manuscripts proposed for publication DO NOT contain policy recommendations. This shall apply both to the proceedings of conferences and to manuscripts by a single author or by one or more coauthors but shall not apply to authors of comments at NBER conferences who are not NBER affiliates. 3. No book manuscript reporting research shall be published by the NBER until the President has sent to each member of the Board a notice that a manuscript is recommended for publication and that in the President s opinion it is suitable for publication in accordance with the above principles of the NBER. Such notification will include a table of contents and an abstract or summary of the manuscript s content, a list of contributors if applicable, and a response form for use by Directors who desire a copy of the manuscript for review. Each manuscript shall contain a summary drawing attention to the nature and treatment of the problem studied and the main conclusions reached. 4. No volume shall be published until forty-five days have elapsed from the above notification of intention to publish it. During this period a copy shall be sent to any Director requesting it, and if any Director objects to publication on the grounds that the manuscript contains policy recommendations, the objection will be presented to the author(s) or editor(s). In case of dispute, all members of the Board shall be notified, and the President shall appoint an ad hoc committee of the Board to decide the matter; thirty days additional shall be granted for this purpose. 5. The President shall present annually to the Board a report describing the internal manuscript review process, any objections made by Directors before publication or by anyone after publication, any disputes about such matters, and how they were handled. 6. Publications of the NBER issued for informational purposes concerning the work of the Bureau, or issued to inform the public of the activities at the Bureau, including but not limited to the NBER Digest and Reporter, shall be consistent with the object stated in paragraph 1. They shall contain a specific disclaimer noting that they have not passed through the review procedures required in this resolution. The Executive Committee of the Board is charged with the review of all such publications from time to time. 7. NBER working papers and manuscripts distributed on the Bureau s web site are not deemed to be publications for the purpose of this resolution, but they shall be consistent with the object stated in paragraph 1. Working papers shall contain a specific disclaimer noting that they have not passed through the review procedures required in this resolution. The NBER s web site shall contain a similar disclaimer. The President shall establish an internal review process to ensure that the working papers and the web site do not contain policy recommendations, and shall report annually to the Board on this process and any concerns raised in connection with it. 8. Unless otherwise determined by the Board or exempted by the terms of paragraphs 6 and 7, a copy of this resolution shall be printed in each NBER publication as described in paragraph 2 above.

Contents Introduction 1 Sebastian Edwards, Gerardo Esquivel, and Graciela Márquez I. Economic Growth, Taxation, and Institutions 1. When Did Latin America Fall Behind? 15 Leandro Prados de la Escosura 2. Before the Golden Age: Economic Growth in Mexico and Portugal, 1910 1950 59 Pedro Lains 3. Inequality and the Evolution of Institutions of Taxation: Evidence from the Economic History of the Americas 83 Kenneth L. Sokoloff and Eric M. Zolt II. Financial Crises, Lending, and Inflation 4. Financial Crises, 1880 1913: The Role of Foreign Currency Debt 139 Michael D. Bordo and Christopher M. Meissner 5. The True Measure of Country Risk: A Primer on the Interrelations between Solvency and the Polity Structure of Emerging Markets, Argentina 1886 1892 195 Gerardo della Paolera and Martín Grandes vii

viii Contents 6. Related Lending: Manifest Looting or Good Governance? Lessons from the Economic History of Mexico 213 Noel Maurer and Stephen Haber 7. Sudden Stops and Currency Drops: A Historical Look 243 Luis A. V. Catão 8. Establishing Credibility: The Role of Foreign Advisors in Chile s 1955 1958 Stabilization Program 291 Sebastian Edwards III. Protectionism and Economic Performance 9. Some Economic Effects of Closing the Economy: The Mexican Experience in the Mid-Twentieth Century 333 Gerardo Esquivel and Graciela Márquez 10. The Political Economy of Protectionism: The Mexican Textile Industry, 1900 1950 363 Aurora Gómez-Galvarriato Contributors 407 Author Index 409 Subject Index 415