Russia: Complicating Matters in the Fight against the Islamic State Key Judgment: As Russia furthers its involvement in the Syrian civil war, there is a strong possibility that loyalist troops backed by Russia and anti-islamic State insurgents backed by the United States could clash and result in a destructive effort to defeat the Islamic State. Analysis: In late August 2015, reports have surfaced that indicate Russia s intent to advance its role in the Syrian civil war and increase its presence in the region. While operating somewhat in the dark during previous months, in September 2015 loyalist forces to the Assad regime have been seen operating Russian heavy armor, including T-90 battle tanks, BTR-80 armored vehicles, and Tigr vehicles. In addition to heavy armor, reports have surfaced to indicate that Russia is taking additional defensive measures to protect its supply lines, points of entry, and ground forces, including airfields and harbors, by deploying MiG-31 interceptors, Su-25 attack aircraft, SA-22 surface-to-air missile systems, and the armored support vehicles previously described. While the majority of this equipment is intended for Syrian ground forces, Russian ground forces are remaining in the area, which means they can be called to a combat ready position in a matter of minutes if needed. Assessment: Russia has long been known for its support of the Assad regime in Syria to further its interests in the region. In regards to Russian support for Assad, the presence of Russian ground troops is a new level of involvement in the civil war. With a new wave of US-backed Syrian backed fighters entering the conflict in mid-september, it is likely that these new fighters could clash with loyalist ground forces in addition to Islamic State fighters. Furthermore, the insertion of Russian MiG fighter aircraft into Syrian airspace presents an issue for coalition airstrikes against Islamic State targets if there is no coordination between Russian fighter jets and coalition bombers. Therefore, it is likely that this new level of Russian military commitment will force the Obama administration to engage in direct talks with the Kremlin to determine a mutual strategy in order to deter selfdestructive tactics. While the current attitude towards Russian involvement in the conflict is seen as negative, there is a possibility that Russian involvement could turn out to be a positive factor for the US because Russia could assist in training fighters to attack the Islamic State and provide military equipment and monetary support for the coalition. However, this outcome can only be achieved with close communication and mutual objectives set by Washington and Moscow. Author: Benjamin York 1
Russia: Arctic Military Presence a Hot Topic for Intelligence Community Key Judgement: As Russia expands their military presence in the Arctic, increased U.S. surveillance is necessary to monitor its military advancements to determine future needs, particularly in the face of American troop level reductions. Analysis: For nearly two years the United States has been actively gathering intelligence on the mounting efforts of Russia to bolster its military presence in the Arctic, where glacier melting has literally opened up new waters in which to navigate military growth. The primary focus of the intelligence collection concentrates renewed construction of nuclear-powered submarines and reopening a number of Soviet-era military bases and airfields along the Artic seaboard. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is working to chart the area to assist other U.S. intelligence surveillance efforts involving satellites, Navy sensors and a recently overhauled Canadian listening post. While current Russian interests in the region likely involve the area s natural resources rather than strategic combat objectives, some policy makers are troubled with these developments in the face of cuts to America s own military. Assessment: In light of cyberespionage efforts and political instability involving Russia, the United States will need to continue monitoring these military expansion efforts to ensure America has the resources and maritime capabilities to keep pace should intentions turn hostile. Even with the political backdrop as it stands, the likelihood of imminent military action remains low, but does not discount the necessity of staying abreast of the situation. Reconnaissance of physical conditions in the area is just as important as gathering intelligence on the Russian military operations so the U.S. Navy and Coast Guard can have a solid understanding of how to navigate the waters should the need arise. These Russian military advancements preempted the latest calls to reduce American troops so there is little reason to assume military cuts acted as an impetus for military buildup in the Arctic. Even so, such operations need to be taken into consideration when facing future budgetary concerns for the United States military. Author: Heather Ireland 2
Behind Enemy Firewalls: The Push For Cyber Warfare Key Judgement: Advances in global cyber espionage highlight vulnerabilities in United States cyber security, calling attention to the need for increased development of American cyber warfare. Analysis: With 61,000 cyber security breaches of the federal government in 2014, followed by a massive hack of the Office of Personnel Management in April 2015, cyber security is not only at the forefront of public concern but holding steady as the top national security threat for the United States. Information gathered through methods of cyber espionage can prove detrimental to the nation s future technological, economic and even military growth as competing countries look to gain advantage over the United States by means of hacking sensitive data. Difficulty lies in determining where cybercrime crosses over into cyber warfare, floating between corporate espionage and intelligence-gathering efforts that may seek to damage a nation s critical infrastructure. Recent breaches to American cyberspace borders show vulnerabilities to these digital attacks and, while the United States has threatened sanctions and military action in a case of cyber warfare, the nation needs to have the capabilities to respond in the same plane: cyber. Assessment: The global advancement of cyber capabilities to infiltrate and attack nations critical infrastructure is expected to continue, placing pressure on the United States to ensure stability on the digital frontier through bolstered cyber security defenses and integration of cyber warfare tactics militaristically. In order to remain competitive with the technologies used to infiltrate the nation s systems, the United States needs greater promotion of information sharing between the public and private sectors regarding cyber threats and technology advancements. This collaboration can assist the government s evolution of intrusion prevention systems within the federal networks as well as advance efforts of integrating cyber capabilities within military defensive and offensive operations. In a digital age, continued reliance on brute militaristic force will fall short against more sophisticated attacks if the United States does not evolve as a stronger cyber force to protect both its physical and cyberspace borders. Author: Heather Ireland 3
Northern Ireland: Peace Process Collapsing Key Judgment: Recent provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA) activity could spell the end of the peace process in the region. Analysis: The recent murder of former IRA member Kevin McGuigan has led to police assertions that the murder was carried out by active IRA members. The IRA has not been disbanded as claimed by Sinn Fien, a suspected political arm of the IRA, and has lead unionist party members to withdraw their support to the government. Unionist paramilitaries have also been re-arming to face a potential resurgence in IRA activity. Talks by the British government have so far proved ineffective. If the current situation is not resolved, the British government will have no choice but to implement direct rule, a return to the 1969 political arrangements. These political arrangements were the spark that started the 40-year war and the terrorist campaign, which claimed the lives of more than 3,500 people, most of which were innocent civilians. There are over 40 paramilitary organizations, which claimed to have been disbanded. Recent resurgence of IRA activity has lead many unionists to question continued shared government. This has lead to an inflamed religious divide within the province. If the IRA cannot be contained and disband, the British may face another civil war. Assessment: The unwillingness of the IRA to disband and Sinn Fien s unwillingness to compromise with unionist leaders, will lead to the implementation of direct rule, further destabilizing the region. Sinn Fien has promised an end to violence in Irish politics, while unionist leaders have claimed that the peace process will continue British rule in Northern Ireland. Neither side has taken action on their promises. Nationalists continue to use violence to assert their will over political matters and threaten to return to the 40 years of conflict if their political demands are not met. Unionists, likewise, threaten to pull out of the peace process if their demands are not met, resulting in direct British rule. Neither side is firmly committed to peace; nationalists continue to use the violence as a political tool while unionists refuse to firmly commit to the peace process. While both sides have real grievances, until they can both commit and compromise, the peace process will remain fragile and ultimately untenable. We assess that the British government will have no choice but to suspend the local parliament and re-establish direct rule. While it is unlikely that the entire peace process will fail, if real and substantive talks do not occur, a return to violence is likely. Political parties on both sides must come to a compromise. Sinn Fien must ensure the IRA is completely disband, while the Unionists must return to the government and renew peace talks. If both parties are able to compromise, it is possible to re-establish a working government in Northern Ireland. Author: Camden Kebert 4
China: Cyber Security Key Judgment: The U.S. is currently working on a diplomatic solution for the Chinese cyber attacks that have made U.S.-Chinese relations tense over the past few months. Analysis: The situation concerning the Chinese cyber attacks has limited the role of the White House, but not the role of the Chinese government. The Chinese government has reached out to the private sector attempting to strengthen relations with the private corporations and businesses in the U.S. Diplomacy seems to be the only option to deal with the Chinese. The White House has had a limited role because the Chinese government has economic ambitions within the private sector of the U.S. Most countries including China have said that they want worldwide intellectual property rights. Because of this, the private sector and the government should work together to dictate standards concerning intellectual property. China s President chose to visit an annual technology forum where several big name private sector entities will be present before meeting with U.S. government officials in Washington, D.C. This shows where the Chinese government s priorities lie. The size of China s market gives them significant leverage in framing its cybersecurity policies to bolster its own domestic high-tech industries against those of the West. There seems to be no solution except diplomacy. China is in a delicate spot because they do not want to push cybersecurity policies because it could damage their ties with Western technological industries of which they rely heavily on. The U.S. policy makers are stumped because most of the industrial espionage is taking place from foreign soil where they do not have jurisdiction. Assessment: The U.S. is likely to continue relying on foreign policy to guard against industrial espionage carried out through cyber attacks. China will reach out to U.S. technology companies on the issue recognizing the importance of the U.S. private sector in network security matters. Diplomacy remains the primary means of protecting the private sector from espionage. The United States should continue to pursue diplomatic solutions to this ongoing problem. They should also meet with various heads of the primary targets for industrial espionage and determine some policy that will benefit both the government and the private sector businesses. After developing a sense of what the private sector wants, the U.S. should then meet with Chinese government officials and determine some multinational policies that will protect the U.S. private sector from espionage from the Chinese government. The U.S. should also consider proposing and promoting worldwide regulations concerning private sector espionage considering that most of the attacks are coming from foreign soil. Author: Jack Norris 5
Afghanistan: Taliban s New Offensive Could Lead to Reclaiming Control of Afghanistan Key Judgment: The Taliban s recent offensive could eventually lead to regaining of power or significant influence in Afghanistan. Analysis: The Taliban is taking a more active approach to seizing power. A few days ago, they had taken control of the key strategic Afghan city of Kunduz. The offensive began when with a gathering of local Taliban and fighters from bordering countries. This group made their way towards Kunduz and put it under siege. In order to break the siege, the Taliban managed to take the city by sneaking in during a holiday, where most people were out of town, and have managed to hold it from counterattacks. The United States has tried to launch airstrikes in support of Afghan troops, but the Afghanis have only traveled to just a mile towards the city. The Taliban has already started to establish control and influence over the city, torching government buildings, establishing roadblocks, and making obstacles for the Afghan troops. Assessment: This recent gain by the Taliban shows that they are ready to take power again since losing it in 2001. If the Taliban manages to hold the city, it could lead to a new offensive to retake Afghanistan. Gaining control of key Afghan cities could help widen the Taliban s control over the country. The Taliban would be able to use this new possible position of power to negotiate with the Afghan government to have greater influence over the political and cultural life of the country. While the Taliban may take this deal, they will still work towards gaining absolute power. But if they do not want to work with the Afghan government, they would just keep on fighting. The reestablishment of Taliban control over Afghanistan would help reinstate the terrorist training center that Afghanistan was before 9/11. Al-Qaeda would have a new base where it could rebuild their network, possibly leading to a new era for Al-Qaeda. The Islamic State could also have a new base of operations if the Taliban changes their allegiance to them. A Taliban-controlled Afghanistan would give Islamic State a nation instead of countryside that they already have in Syria and Iraq. The United States should support the Afghan government in retaking Kunduz by airstrikes and transportation if needed. Retaking Kunduz from the Taliban would be a psychological victory because it would show the Taliban cannot hold a city. After regaining the city, the Afghan government should push the Taliban back to their strongholds, with U.S. support if needed. Another possible action that the Afghan government should take is the tightening of control over their borders. Most of the fighters that took Kunduz came from foreign countries, so controlling the borders may prevent a similar attack in the future. Name: Tyler Hohnsbehn Advisor: Dr. David H. Gray 6