BIHAR STATE SPECIFIC FINDINGS Table 1: Projected vote share if Lok Sabha elections are held now (January 2014) UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JULY 2013-3% UNDECIDED VOTERS IN JANUARY 2014-2% Party 2009 Actual July 2013 Estimated Vote January 2014 Estimated Vote INC 10 10 11 BJP 14 22 39 JDU 24 25 20 RJD 19 24 15 LJP 7 3 2 AAP - - 3 Others 26 16 10 Note: All figures are in per cent and rounded off; Vote share estimates are based on the voting intentions declared by respondents through a secret dummy ballot. These raw figures have been adjusted by the CSDS team for the known patterns of under-reporting for independents and very small party and over-reporting for the ruling party/alliance to arrive at the vote share estimates presented here. Undecided are those who did not disclose their vote preference. They have been excluded while deciding the estimated vote share. Estimates for 2013 based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in July 2013. Estimate for 2014 based on the Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in January 2014. AAP was not on the dummy ballot paper in the July 2013 survey hence no separate vote share estimate for the party was made. Sample size for 2013 was 1735; Sample size for 2014 is 1317 Table 2: Percentage of those who say both JDU & BJP were equally responsible for the break up has doubled JDU or BJP: Who is to more Traditional Kurmi, Muslims responsible for the break up? JDU supporters Koeri JDU more responsible 33 26 24 13 30 23 20 17 BJP more responsible 19 20 36 27 25 27 30 35 Both JDU and BJP are equally responsible 18 39 20 51 17 36 22 40 Neither JDU nor BJP are responsible 4 4 2 4 3 3 7 3 Can t say 26 12 18 5 26 12 21 5 2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014. 3. Sample size for overall in 2014 is 1317; Sample size in 2013 was 1735 3. Questions asked: Whom do you consider responsible for the breakup of JDU-BJP alliance - JDU or BJP?
Table 3: JDU-BJP and RJD-Congress seen as natural partners by their respective ; but fairly high support for a Cong-JDU alliance among their respective as well Support for possible pre-poll Congress BJP JDU RJD alliances for LS polls in Bihar Support for RJD-Congress alliance 26 57 17 15 47 Support for JDU-Congress alliance 25 42 21 38 8 Support for JDU-BJP alliance 43 18 66 55 12 Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off, the rest either did not support or could not say. Weighted Data. 3. Sample size is 1317. 4. Question asked: Now I will read out the names of a few possible pre election alliances in Bihar for the Lok Sabha elections. Please tell me for each alliance, whether you support it or oppose it? Table 4a: Eight out of ten respondents in Bihar have heard about the blasts during Modi s rally in Patna last October Heard about Patna blasts? Heard 83 Not heard 17 3. Sample size is 1317 4. Question asked: Have you heard of the bomb blasts at the Gandhi Maidan in Patna during Narendra Modi s rally?
Table 4b: Most say Nitish govt. to blame for security lapse during Modi rally, including many Muslims Opinion on blasts during Modi s Patna rally (responses of only those who are aware of the blasts) Upper caste Yadav Kurmi Lower OBC Dalit Muslim Nitish govt to blame for security lapse 51 62 55 30 51 57 47 Nitish govt not to blame, such things are impossible to check 33 29 26 54 37 29 33 Can t say 16 9 19 16 12 14 20 3. Sample size for overall is 1086 4. Question asked: (If heard of blasts) There are some people who think that the Bihar government did not provide adequate security for Narendra Modi s rally in Patna and hence it is to blame for the not being able to prevent the blasts, while there are others who feel that it is impossible to check such incidents and the Nitish Kumar government should not be blamed for the blasts. What is your opinion? Table 4c: Divided opinion on BJP s decision to continue with Patna rally despite blasts, including among JDU BJP s decision to continue addressing the rally JDU BJP crowd despite blasts was (responses of only those who are aware of the blasts) Appropriate 45 41 61 Inappropriate 40 41 28 Can t say 15 18 11 3. Sample size for overall is 1086 4. Question asked: (If heard of blasts) Do you think the BJP s decision to continue addressing the crowd at the Patna rally even after the blasts was appropriate or inappropriate?
Table 5: Lalu got adequate punishment in fodder scam case say most Opinion on Lalu s punishment in fodder scam case Muslims Yadavs Traditional RJD supporters Too harsh 19 26 35 40 Adequate 46 42 40 42 Too little 19 16 11 1 Can t say 16 17 14 17 3. Sample size for overall is 1317 4. Question asked: People have different opinion on the punishment given to RJD leader Lalu Prasad Yadav in the fodder scam. Some say that whatever punishment court gave to Lalu was more than what was required while the others say that the punishment given to Lalu was absolutely appropriate. What is your opinion? Table 6: ASSEMBLY ELECTION PREFERENCE: While BJP way ahead in LS poll preference, JDU is the clear leader in the event of an assembly election, RJD also gains If assembly elections in state are held tomorrow, will vote for JDU 38 RJD 23 BJP 23 INC 4 LJP 3 Others 7 Undecided 2 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January 2014. 3. Sample size is 1317 4. Question asked: If assembly elections are held in Bihar tomorrow, then which party will you vote for? Table 7: JDU government s performance still rated mostly positively but is down compared to last July
Satisfaction with performance of the State JDU govt Satisfied 69 59 Dissatisfied 25 38 Can t say 6 3 2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014. 4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the JDU government in Bihar over the last three years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied). Table 8: Nitish Kumar s performance as CM rated better than his government s performance Satisfaction with performance of the Nitish Kumar as CM of Bihar Satisfied 63 Dissatisfied 36 Can t say 1 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January 2014. 3. Sample size is 1317 4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of Nitish Kumar as the chief minister of Bihar over the last three years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied). Table 9: Bihar state government s popularity still as high as it was last July Should the JDU govt in Bihar get another chance? Yes 54 55 No 35 38 Can t say 11 7
2. Figures for 2013 and 2014 based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014. 4. Question asked: Suppose assembly elections are held in your state tomorrow, should the present JDU government in Bihar get another chance? Table 10: Over three fourths respondents in Bihar dissatisfied with UPA govt s performance Satisfaction with performance of UPA Central govt. in Bihar Satisfied 38 17 Dissatisfied 46 77 Can t say 16 5 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014. 4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Congress-led UPA government at the Centre over the last four/four and a half years? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied) Table 11: Dissatisfaction with Manmohan Singh s performance doubles Satisfaction with performance of Manmohan Singh as PM in Bihar Satisfied 47 24 Dissatisfied 38 70 Can t say 15 6 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014. 4. Question asked: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Manmohan Singh s performance as the Prime Minister? (Probe further whether fully or somewhat satisfied or dissatisfied)
Table 12: UPA government extremely unpopular in Bihar Should the UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election? Opinion in Bihar Yes 30 21 No 46 70 Can t say 24 10 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014. 4. Question asked: Should the Congress-led UPA government get another chance after the 2014 Lok Sabha election? Table 13: PM choice Modi s popularity increases Prime Minister choice in Bihar Narendra Modi 23 39 Rahul Gandhi 7 9 Sonia Gandhi 4 3 Manmohan Singh 6 1 L K Advani 3 1 Nitish Kumar 13 15 Lalu Prasad Yadav 12 11 Ram Vilas Paswan 2 3 Arvind Kejriwal 0 3 Others 6 3 Can t say 24 12 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in July 2013 and January 2014.
4. Question asked: Who would you prefer as the Prime Minister of the country after the next/2014 Lok Sabha election? Table 14: AAP impact in Bihar: 50 percent have heard about AAP, 39 percent want it to contest the LS polls from their seat and 22 percent showed interest in voting for AAP in the LS polls AAP impact in Bihar Heard of AAP 50 Want AAP to contest from their seat 39 Inclined to vote for AAP in LS polls 22 Note: 1. All figures are in per cent and rounded off; figures are for three separate questions; rest had not heard, do not want it to contest from their seat and are not inclined to vote for it in LS polls; Weighted Data. 2. Figures based on Lokniti-IBN National Tracker poll conducted in Bihar in January 2014. 3. Sample size is 1317 4. Question asked: Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)? (If heard) Would you want AAP to contest the forthcoming Lok Sabha elections from your Constituency? (If heard) If AAP contests from your Lok Sabha constituency, would you vote for it?