June 7, 2002 Commissioned by: CBC, Toronto Star, SRC, La Presse, EKOS Poll Martin vs. Chrétien: Spectacle, Sympathy & Resilience
Outline A B C D E Methodology Highlights Awareness & Broad Perceptions Approval/Disapproval Impact on Political Landscape
A. Methodology
Methodology! Telephone surveys of the general public " Most recent survey includes 1,225 completed interviews with a national random sample of Canadians 18 years of age and over (n=404 in Quebec) " Interview period: June 4-6, 2002 " National results valid within +/- 2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20 (Quebec: + 5.2%) # The margin of error increases when the results are sub-divided. # It should also be noted that the refusal rate and other measurement errors could also increase the margin of error. " Tracking results from EKOS Rethinking Government study! All the data were statistically weighted to ensure the sample s regional, gender and age composition reflects that of the actual population of Canada according to Census data
B. Highlights
Bottom Line I! All in all, the Martin-Chrétien affair has provided spectacle and drama, and clearly wounded the PM but there is little compelling evidence that these injuries are life-threatening! The PM has no immediate restrictions based on a free fall in the polls " LPC s fortunes are up actually " Sympathy/support for Martin is much higher among non-liberal and the affair is seen as an internal dispute about power and personalities, not policies! Key challenges for the PM and the government include puncturing Mr. Martin s contention that he was fired and reestablishing ethical confidence " Clear moves such as insistence on total disclosure of campaign donations would be a good example
Bottom Line II! Mr. Martin s popularity does not appear to have dislodged the PM and in the absence of further difficulties, his popularity may have a waning influence as public interest in the issue declines and the public s impatience to return to national business rises. " Liberal supporters, in particular, think the PM has the right to time his own resignation and are very adverse to disrupting national stability over leadership ambition! The only visible threat to continued Liberal hegemony comes from Liberals themselves
C. Awareness & Broad Perceptions
Awareness and Broad Reactions! Unprecedented political drama " Over 80 per cent closely following (Ottawa has moved from boring to riveting overnight!);! Affair is underwhelming Canadians who believe it is: 1) an unseemly dispute rooted in power and ambition, and 2) a childish spectacle! Public sympathies lean strongly to Mr. Martin and these are rooted in his popularity, and a conviction that he was fired! Perception of fired or quit is a key factor conditioning broader perceptions of approval of Mr. Martin and Mr. Chrétien! Minority believes that Mr. Martin s departure will be bad for the country but majority indicate that things will either stay the same or improve! All in all, impacts seen as more negative for the party, not the country
Awareness of Paul Martin out of Cabinet Q: Are you aware that Paul Martin, the former Finance Minister is no longer a member of the federal cabinet? 84 8 8 Yes, clearly Yes, vaguely No {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Martin: Quit or Fired? Q: From what you have read or heard, do you think Mr. Martin basically quit, was fired by Mr. Chrétien or it is too difficult to say who did what? 56 33 7 5 Quit Fired Too difficult to say DK/NR {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Martin: Reason out of Cabinet Q: What do you think is the most important reason Mr. Martin is no longer in Cabinet? Was it or Conflicts over power and ambition 73 Personality conflict Disagreement about ground rules for leadership campaign Differences in vision and policy for Canada Dirty tricks and leaks associated with leadership campaign Difference of values and ideology 50 46 40 38 37 Media focus on Chrétien-Martin tensions 31 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Martin-Chrétien: Childish Spectacle Q: Regardless of who is right or wrong, I think the latest Chrétien-Martin episode is a childish spectacle unfitting our most senior political leaders. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 70 70 82 80 61 66 Neither 14 13 8 9 18 16 Disagree 14 14 9 10 17 14 DK/NR 3 2 1 1 4 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
National Stability over Leadership Q:Now that the economy is performing well and the country is healthy, it seems unwise to disrupt national stability over leadership ambitions. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 54 65 52 54 40 48 Neither 20 15 18 21 29 23 Disagree 23 17 26 23 30 25 DK/NR 3 3 3 2 1 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Impact of Martin s Departure Q: What do you think will be the overall impact of Mr. Martin s departure on: (1- extremely negative, 2-somewhat negative, 3-none, 4-somewhat positive, 5- extremely positive) 5 20 The Liberal Party of Canada 42 22 8 3 The economy 5 8 33 44 7 3 6 8 The future of the country 33 39 10 4 6 9 28 National unity 45 8 4 0 25 50 75 100 DK/NR Extremely negative Somewhat negative None Somewhat positive Extremely positive {Base: All Canadians; n=approx. 600}
Approval/ D. Disapproval
Quit or Fired? Key to Public Assessment! Initial reaction is to blame PM, with public sympathies leaning overwhelmingly toward Mr. Martin (at this stage) " Much more polarized approval among those who believed that Martin quit!! Mr. Chrétien is seen by a plurality of voters, and a majority of Liberals, as having done the necessary thing given circumstances but the view that Martin was treated unfairly is stronger! Mr. Manley receives only mixed views about his competence for the job but they are slightly improving (perhaps in recognition of little negative market impacts this week)! The issue of transparent reporting of leadership donations receives near universal and strong support. " Mr. Chrétien could receive positive marks if he moves forward with this plan which might hurt Mr. Martin s popularity if he resisted the proposal! Broad government approval rating declined significantly over past week (but not party standing)
Support for Manley as Finance Minister Q: I feel pretty comfortable that John Manley is up to the job of being a sound Finance Minister. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 26 32 18 29 18 21 Neither 43 41 45 39 49 48 Disagree 21 18 31 28 26 23 DK/NR 10 9 7 5 7 8 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Martin Treated Unfairly? Q: I think that Mr. Martin was a terrific Finance Minister and that he was treated very unfairly by the Prime Minister. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 57 56 78 67 43 66 Neither 26 27 13 25 36 23 Disagree 13 13 6 8 19 9 DK/NR 4 4 3 1 3 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Chrétien s Action Right? Q: I think the continued Chrétien-Martin controversy around leadership and Mr. Martin s threat to leave necessitated Mr. Chrétien s actions. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 38 43 40 35 38 40 Neither 31 30 27 22 40 30 Disagree 26 22 30 41 18 27 DK/NR 5 5 2 2 3 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Donations and Leadership Campaign Q: I think it is an excellent idea to ensure that all donations to leadership campaigns are publicly declared so that we know who is financing which candidates. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 88 84 94 92 93 93 Neither 6 9 4 1 4 3 Disagree 5 6 2 5 2 4 DK/NR 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Who is right: Chrétien or Martin? Q: All in all, how strongly do you approve or disapprove the conduct of Jean Chrétien/Paul Martin in this affair? Martin fired? Jean Chrétien LPC CA PC NDP BQ Yes No Approve 22 29 8 13 19 23 16 29 Disapprove 71 65 89 84 73 74 81 61 DK/NR 7 6 3 3 8 3 3 10 Paul Martin Approve 57 52 72 68 48 66 65 48 Disapprove 31 37 23 27 37 22 27 39 DK/NR 12 11 5 5 15 12 8 13 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Satisfaction with Government Direction (Short Term) Q: Overall, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 60% 40% 40% 41% 50% 53% 57% 54% 52% 50% 49% 47% 48% 46% 46% 39% 41% 37% 37% 42% 42% 41% 37% 37% 20% 0% 01- Oct 15- Oct 29- Oct 12- Nov 26- Nov 10- Dec 24- Dec 07- Jan 21- Jan 04- Feb 18- Feb 04- Mar 18- Mar 2001 2002 01- Apr 15- Apr 29- Apr 13- May 27-6- May Jun {Base: All Canadians} DN/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction
Satisfaction with Government Direction (Long Term) Q: Overall, would you say the Government of Canada is moving in the right direction or the wrong direction? 60% 46% 40% 41% 20% 12% 0% Jan-99 May-99 Sep-99 Jan-00 May-00 Sep-00 Jan-01 May-01 Sep-01 Jan-02 May-02 Jun-02 DK/NR Wrong Direction Right Direction {Base: All Canadians}
Impact on E. Political Landscape
PM blamed but Voting Intentions Unaffected! Paradoxically the assigned blame and disapproval of Mr. Chrétien appear to have had little impact on his party s position in the polls. In fact, the Liberals strengthened significantly in the past week and were strengthening in the past few days! Mr. Martin enjoys an advantage on the hypothetical question of how likely voters would be to vote Liberal in the next election if he rather than Mr. Chrétien were leader " Our recent experience suggests these hypothetical questions are unreliable for gauging future voter behavior! Mr. Chrétien is seen as having a disadvantage with Mr. Martin on ethics but fares as well on national-unity/quebec issues particularly amongst Liberals and English Canadians.! Martin s advantage is much more strongly and consistently evident amongst right of centre voters and older Canadians
PM Earned Right to Stay among Liberals! The majority of Canadians continue to believe that PM should resign before the next election and that no leader should hold more than two consecutive terms! Amongst Liberal voters there is considerable support for the idea that Mr. Chrétien has earned the right to decide on resigning; a view strenuously rejected by non-liberals
Should the PM Step Down? Q: All in all, do you think that the Prime Minister Jean Chrétien should resign before the next election? LPC CA PC NDP BQ Yes 60 48 86 78 57 68 No 33 47 9 18 33 28 DK/NR 7 5 4 4 10 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
PM: Legitimacy to Stay Q:I think that because the Prime Minister won the leadership of his party and received high support from the public in the last election, he deserves the right to decide when he will resign. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 37 52 25 18 33 36 Neither 14 14 11 13 20 14 Disagree 47 33 64 69 47 49 DK/NR 2 1 0 0 1 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Limiting PM Time in Office Q: Like in the American constitution, I think that we should have a rule that limits office to the head of the federal government to two terms. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 59 50 74 74 49 72 Neither 12 15 10 5 12 9 Disagree 27 33 16 20 38 17 DK/NR 2 1 0 1 1 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Potential Gain for Opposition? Q: No matter how much difficulty the Liberals are encountering lately, I still don t feel comfortable that any of the opposition parties could form a competent government. LPC CA PC NDP BQ Agree 50 69 28 38 38 41 Neither 19 15 18 16 15 22 Disagree 30 14 54 45 47 37 DK/NR 2 1 0 2 0 1 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Federal Voting Preference Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] Election 2000 49.9% 40.9% 16.0% 25.5% 12.6% 10.8% Undecided: 22.6%, Total sample of 1,220 Canadians 12.2% 8.5% 7.8% 10.7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% *Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included.
Federal Voting Preferences Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Dec-96 May-97* Elec-97 Nov-97 Mar-98 Apr-98 Oct-98 0% Dec-98 Jan-99 Mar-99 May-99 Jul-99 Oct-99 Dec-99 Feb-00 Mar-00 May-00 Jun-00 Jul-00 Oct-00 Oct 25* Nov 15* Nov 22* Elec-00 Jan-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Dec-01 Jan-02 16-May-02 30-May-02 06/16/2002 Liberal PC Reform/CA Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included
Federal Voting Preferences: Regional Q: If a federal election were held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? [Decided voters only*] 60% 40% 20% 0% BC Alta. Prairies Ont. Que. Atl. Liberal 37% 35% 46% 58% 50% 57% CA 27% 38% 27% 16% 3% 6% PC 9% 16% 10% 15% 6% 25% BQ 32% NDP 18% 5% 15% 10% 8% 13% Other 8% 6% 2% 1% 2% 0% Liberal CA PC BQ NDP Other {Base: Decided voters only: won t vote, undecided and refused respondents excluded; leaners included}
Loyalty Index Per cent of Canadians that say they intend to vote for the same party they voted for in the 2000 election. 88% 85% 83% 78% 77% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% {Base: All Canadians; n=933}
Main Street vs. Bay Street Constituency Jean Chrétien has relatively more appeal with Paul Martin has relatively more appeal with Women Lower income Youth Liberal and NDP Men Upper income Pre-retired and retired CA, PC and Bloc Voters
Martin vs. Chrétien: Ethics & Corruption Q: Between Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien, which leader is best able to deal with ethics and corruption? LPC CA PC NDP BQ Martin 51 48 73 70 41 58 Chrétien 21 31 4 8 24 17 Neither 14 9 16 12 19 21 DK/NR 14 13 6 9 16 5 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Martin vs. Chrétien: Quebec Issues Q: Between Paul Martin and Jean Chrétien, which leader is best able to deal with Quebec issues and national unity? LPC CA PC NDP BQ Chrétien 39 54 20 30 44 13 Martin 38 31 56 50 32 60 Neither 10 5 14 9 16 21 DK/NR 13 10 10 12 8 6 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=1225}
Leadership Effect on Voting Intentions Q: How likely is it that you would vote for the Liberal Party of Canada if Jean Chrétien/ Paul Martin is the leader? Likely Somewhat likely Unlikely Jean Chrétien 23 20 50 LPC CA PC NDP BQ 49 0 3 6 0 28 4 8 21 0 19 95 85 71 100 Likely Paul Martin 39 62 31 38 18 17 Somewhat likely 27 23 30 24 33 24 Unlikely 27 14 36 36 36 59 0 20 40 60 80 100 {Base: All Canadians; n=approx. 600}
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