How unmarried women, youth and people of color defined this election November 8, 2012
2 Methodology and Specifications This presentation is based on a survey conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for Democracy Corps. The survey of 1001 likely 2012 voters nationwide was conducted from November 5-7, 2012. Survey results weighted to reflect National Exit Survey. Unless otherwise noted, margin of error= +/-3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence.
The Rising American Electorate (RAE) includes unmarried women, people of color, and those under the age of 30. In total, they comprise the majority (53%) of the November 15, 2011 voting eligible population. Unmarried women are the largest segment of this group and drive its composition. 111 million eligible voters (52.8% of all eligible voters) are in the RAE Latino 21 million 5.7 m Latina unmarried women Unmarried 53 million 17.3 m young unmarried women Youth 45 million Other 12m 9.7 m AA unmarried women African American 25 million Source: 2010 CPS/November CPS supplements on voting and registration
By Holding the RAE, Obama Held the White House Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Obama Romney +39 +35 +19 +28 69 67 59 63 30 32 40 35 Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney 2008 2012 2008 2012 Rising American Electorate Non-Rising American Electorate *Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results. 4
*Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 5 RAE Nearly Half the 2012 Electorate Percent of the Electorate +3 +3 +1 - +1 45 48 20 23 18 19 13 13 9 10 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 Rising American Electorate Unmarried women Youth African Americans Hispanics
*Note: 2008 results come from Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 6 Obama Holds Unmarried and Grows Hispanic Support Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? +34 +22 +40 +34 +36 +42 66 60 70 67 67 71 32 38 30 33 31 29 Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney Obama McCain Obama Romney 2008 2012 2008 2012 2008 2012 Youth (18-29) Unmarried Hispanics
*Note: Survey Results Reflect Estimates From Edison/Mitofsky/CNN exit polls. 7 Gender Gap is Big, but Marriage Gap is Huge Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? Gender Gap: 18 Marriage Gap: 43-7 +11-7 +36 67 45 52 55 44 46 53 31 Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney Men Married Unmarried
*Note: 2008 results reflect the findings of the combined WVWV/CAF/RR/DCOR post-election results, 8 Congressional Democrats Rebound from 2010 Among Unmarried Now let me ask you about the election for Congress, did you vote for -- (DEMOCRATIC HOUSE CANDIDATE) or (REPUBLICAN HOUSE CANDIDATE)? Marriage Gap: 43 30 48-3 +40-14 +16-9 +39 69 69 48 51 42 56 57 41 45 54 29 30 Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Dem Rep Married Unmarried Married Unmarried Married Unmarried 2008 2010 2012
9 Marriage Gap Dwarfs Gender Gap Last Three Elections Marriage Gap Gender Gap 44 43 22 26 17 28 22 34 14 18 5 12 Nov-92 Nov-96 Nov-00 Nov-04 Nov-08 Nov-12
10 Huge Disparity in Personal Appeal Among RAE Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Barack Obama Mitt Romney Mean: 67.5 Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 42.8 Mean: 40.0 Mean: 59.6 Net: +41 66 Net: -14 Net: -18 Net: +31 59 56 20 26 39 34 29 22 46 45 53 52 35 19 29 RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE
11 Cultural Divide Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Planned Parenthood Gay Marriage Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Tea Party Mean: 69.6 Mean: 52 Mean: 55 Mean: 44.8 Mean: 36.8 Mean: 45.9 Net: +52 64 Net: +8 Net: +13 Net: -9 Net: -22 Net: -2 49 14 18 44 43 35 37 22 31 35 28 13 20 29 27 40 37 32 30 36 44 44 39 RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE
12 Republican Brand Problem with RAE Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Democrats in Congress Republican Congress Democratic Party Republican Party Net: +22 Net: -27 Net: -20 Net: +1 Net: +26 Net: -20 Net: -18 Net: +11 52 27 29 40 56 34 30 48 30 11 12 16 35 16 15 21 20 41 36 31 19 40 39 26 30 54 49 39 30 54 48 36 RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE RAE Non-RAE
13 Ratings on new health care reform law have improved in recent months Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold The new health care reform law. Warm Cool 49 52 52 50 33 32 51 32 34 29 49 47 48 49 33 32 33 29 47 49 29 28 27 47 47 47 30 31 30 48 45 44 45 46 43 43 44 44 40 37 38 38 39 39 35 36 Jun-10 Sep-10 Dec-10 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12
14 Favorable Reaction to Healthcare Among RAE voters Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold. You can use any number from zero to one hundred, the higher the number the more favorable your feelings are toward that person or organization. If you have no opinion or never heard of that person or organization, please say so. Mean: 53.7 Net: +12 42 The New Health Care Reform Law Very warm (75-100) Very cool (0-25) Mean: 34.0 Net: -30 29 30 19 26 31 54 RAE 60 Non-RAE
#1 reason people voted for Obama brought us through economic crisis Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan Respect him as a leader 21 27 Leadership and National Security Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts 26 30 Social Insurance Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time 39 His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay their fair share 18 21 Economic Action Rescued U.S. auto industry 13 For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act 19 26 Support and Minorities 0 25 50 15
s Narrative a Leading Reason to Support President among Unmarried Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Barack Obama. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Barack Obama? Total RAE Unmarried Brought America through the economic crisis and needs more time 40 40 34 Passed Affordable Health Care Act for all 30 27 23 Took out Osama bin Laden and ended wars in Iraq and Afghanistan 27 32 24 For Planned Parenthood, preventive health care and pay equity for women 26 23 30 Will protect Medicare and Social Security from cuts 26 27 30 Respect him as a leader 21 21 23 His jobs plan for American energy, auto efficiency, infrastructure and more teachers 21 23 23 Stood up for minorities and equal rights, like the Dream Act 19 20 21 Will get millionaires to pay higher taxes and pay fair share 18 19 19 Rescued U.S. auto industry 13 10 9 Could not vote for Romney 10 11 13 16
Romney vote from jobs and economic plans, as well as cutting spending Now let me read you a list reasons to support Mitt Romney. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Mitt Romney? Successful businessman who knows how to manage and create jobs Plan to expand offshore oil drilling, coal, and natural gas on federal lands Plan to cut taxes across the board 17 26 38 Economic plans Will protect small businesses from taxes and regulation 16 Compassionate and religious man Worked with both Democrats and Republicans 16 17 Leadership qualities Plan to cut spending and reduce national debt 37 Will repeal Obamacare Ending culture of dependency by cutting food stamps and welfare 14 33 Government and spending Will tackle reform of Medicare and Social Security 13 I don't want four more years of Barack Obama 24 0 25 50 17
Anti-Obama Vote Driven by Concern with Growing Deficit and Size of Government Let me read you a list of doubts about Barack Obama. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Barack Obama? America less respected under Obama America would not be the same if Obama had second term 15 12 Weakened America Increased deficit and size of government Obamacare Cut Medicare by 700 billion dollars to pay for a health reform plan no one wanted Hurt small businesses with taxes and regulations Bailed out big banks while doing nothing to help homeowners Paid off union supporters in the auto bailout and failed clean-energy projects 26 24 21 18 31 35 Government and Spending His economic plans failed 22 Economy Failed to change Washington and break gridlock 15 Gridlock Support for abortion rights 14 0 25 50 18
Voted against Romney because out-of-touch and for the rich above all Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? With the rich and out of touch with average people 28 His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors Would repeal Obamacare 20 19 17 16 24 27 For rich and out of touch Threats to Social Insurance Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan 15 14 27 30 0 25 50 Leadership Qualities Foreign Policy 19
s Narrative Hurts Romney Among Unmarried Let me read you a list of doubts about Mitt Romney. Regardless of how you voted, which THREE describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Mitt Romney? Total RAE Unmarried Being against Planned Parenthood and preventive health services for women 27 27 33 Changed positions so often we don't know what he believes 30 28 29 His statement that he doesn't care about the "47 percent" 27 31 33 With the rich and out of touch with average people 28 32 35 Plan to change Medicare and raise costs for seniors 24 25 28 Wants more tax cuts for the wealthy 20 20 18 Closed companies and shipped jobs abroad when CEO of Bain Capital 19 14 11 For the Bush trickle down policies that caused the economic crash 17 19 22 Would repeal Obamacare 16 16 19 Stands for Tea Party Republicans who produce gridlock in Washington 15 15 13 Would increase military spending and let generals decide whether to keep troops in Afghanistan 14 17 11 20
Agenda Moving Forward Now that Barack Obama has won another term in office and we have a Republican Congress, which two or three of the following do you believe should be the first priority of Congress and the President: Total RAE Unmarried Invest in education, including hiring 100,000 more teachers, more Pell Grants for college and investing in early childhood education. 33 41 37 Protect Social Security and Medicare from significant cuts 33 34 36 Support a grand bargain to reduce the deficit where Democrats agree to cuts in spending and Republicans agree to tax increases for the wealthy Invest in an "all of the above" energy strategy that exploits domestic oil, gas and coal, but also expands new, clean energy like wind, solar and bio-fuels. Pass a new jobs bill that increases exports and rebuilds roads, bridges and economic infrastructure Crack down on companies that pay women LESS money if they perform THE SAME job as their male colleagues 30 27 27 29 24 25 25 21 14 18 23 29 Raise taxes on top earners to help reduce the deficit and pay for important programs. 12 13 14 Fully implement the health care reform law 12 13 15 Protect Planned Parenthood and women's health care choices, including the right to choose to have an abortion. 14 18 21 Protect programs for the vulnerable, including food stamps and Medicaid 12 13 15 21
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