Overview of Criminal and Juvenile Justice Correctional Population Projections, Recidivism Rates, and Costs Per Day PRESENTED AT THE SENATE FINANCE COMMITTEE HEARING LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD STAFF FEBRUARY 2017
Correctional Population Projections: Overview Correctional population projections are produced to serve as a basis for biennial funding determinations. Projections are based on current laws, policies, and practices. Subsequent shifts in these factors will be incorporated into future LBB projections. The LBB simulation model incorporates these factors into the population projections and tracks an individual s movement into, through, and out of the criminal or juvenile justice system. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 2
Adult Correctional Projections: Populations Correctional Institutions Parole Community Supervision o o Average Felony Direct Misdemeanor Placements FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 3
Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity 160,000 Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 155,000 150,000 Actual Population Fiscal Year 2012 154,877 145,000 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2017 147,409 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2022 147,393 140,000 135,000 Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity 130,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: In September 2013, TDCJ permanently removed 4,316 beds from capacity as part of the budget reductions directed by the Eighty-third Legislature, Regular Session, 2013. In December 2013, TDCJ permanently removed 40 beds from capacity to accommodate wheelchair accessibility. In July 2015, TDCJ permanently added five beds to capacity at the Santa Maria Unit to accommodate the expansion of the Baby and Mother Bonding Initiative program. In December 2016, 667 beds at the Kegans State Jail were permanently removed from capacity when the facility was repurposed as an intermediate sanction facility. In January 2017, 8 beds at the Holliday Unit were removed from capacity to accommodate wheelchair accessibility. SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 4
Adult Correctional Projections: Incarceration Population and Operating Capacity Fiscal Years 2017 to 2022 INCARCERATION POPULATION OPERATING CAPACITY COMPARED FISCAL (END-OF-MONTH OPERATING TO PROJECTED POPULATION YEAR YEARLY AVERAGE) CAPACITY DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE 2017 147,409 152,117 4,708 3.1% 2018 147,256 152,117 4,861 3.2% 2019 147,175 152,117 4,942 3.2% 2020 147,205 152,117 4,912 3.2% 2021 147,443 152,117 4,674 3.1% 2022 147,393 152,117 4,724 3.1% NOTE: Operating capacity is 96.0 percent of the sum of total unit capacities SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 5
Adult Correctional Projections: Parole Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 100,000 83,749 87,289 86,855 80,000 60,000 Actual Projected 40,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 6
180,000 Adult Correctional Projections: Felony Direct Community Supervision Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 Actual Projected 170,000 168,487 160,000 155,643 155,223 150,000 140,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 7
Adult Correctional Projections: Misdemeanor Community Supervision Placements Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 120,000 Actual Projected 110,000 103,514 100,000 90,000 88,033 80,000 76,293 70,000 60,000 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 8
Juvenile Correctional Projections: Populations State Residential Parole Probation o o o Adjudicated Probation Deferred Prosecution Conditional Pre-Disposition FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 9
Juvenile Correctional Projections: TJJD Actual and Projected State Residential Average Daily Population and Operating Capacity 3,000 Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 Actual Population Fiscal Year 2012 1,481 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2017 1,314 Projected Population Fiscal Year 2022 1,331 500 Actual Population Projected Population Actual Operating Capacity Projected Operating Capacity 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 NOTES: Operating capacity represents the total number of beds available for permanent assignment. Not included within this number are 332 temporary assignment (youth management and clinic) beds. Capacity includes 479 permanent assignment beds and 74 temporary assignment beds offline. The operating capacity is projected to increase slightly from fiscal years 2017 to 2018, when the agency returns 36 beds to capacity which are temporarily offline due to construction. The operating capacity for fiscal year 2017 is the operating capacity as of January 2017. SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 10
Juvenile Correctional Projections: TJJD State Residential Average Daily Population and Operating Capacity Fiscal Years 2017 to 2022 STATE RESIDENTIAL OPERATING CAPACITY COMPARED FISCAL AVERAGE DAILY OPERATING TO PROJECTED POPULATION YEAR POPULATION CAPACITY DIFFERENCE PERCENTAGE 2017 1,314 2,001 687 34.3% 2018 1,373 2,037 664 32.6% 2019 1,374 2,037 663 32.5% 2020 1,338 2,037 699 34.3% 2021 1,346 2,037 691 33.9% 2022 1,331 2,037 706 34.7% SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 11
1,600 Juvenile Correctional Projections: Parole Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 1,200 Actual Projected 800 781 400 412 396 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 12
Juvenile Correctional Projections: Probation Fiscal Years 2012 to 2022 40,000 Adjudicated Probation Actual Deferred Prosecution Actual Conditional Pre-Disposition Actual Total Supervision Actual Adjudicated Probation Projected Deferred Prosecution Projected Conditional Pre-Disposition Projected Total Supervision Projected 30,000 26,252 20,000 15,547 20,599 19,887 11,792 11,569 10,000 0 7,970 5,841 5,261 2,735 2,966 3,057 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Juvenile Justice Department. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 13
Qualitative Review Interviews and focus groups were conducted with adult and juvenile practitioners in selected counties and at professional conferences as well as incarcerated individuals. Participants included: judges; prosecutors; adult community supervision staff; juvenile probation staff; state agency personnel; and Individuals incarcerated within adult correctional institutions. Adult Criminal Justice Findings Practitioners report adult criminal justice populations are largely stable. Practitioners report the felony community supervision population has higher risks and greater needs than in previous years. Juvenile Justice Findings Practitioners indicate juvenile population trends are stabilizing after several years of significant declines. Practitioners indicate juvenile justice populations have higher risks and greater needs than in previous years. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 14
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates: Overview Recidivism is defined as a return to criminal or delinquent activity after previous criminal or delinquent involvement. There are many different indicators of recidivism. These indicators include: o Rearrest/Rereferral o Adjudication/Conviction o Incarceration/Reincarceration o Revocation Rearrest/rereferral, adjudication/conviction, reincarceration/incarceration, and revocation are used to indicate recidivism. Each cohort is followed for three years. NOTES: Rearrest is an indicator used in both the criminal and juvenile justice systems while rereferral is used only in the juvenile justice system. Adjudication includes individuals that have been adjudicated or readjudicated. Conviction includes individuals that have been convicted or reconvicted. Incarceration is an indicator for criminal and juvenile justice system supervision populations. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 15
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates: Highlights Fiscal Year 2013 Adult Populations Rearrest % Reconviction % Incarceration/Reincarceration % Felony Community Supervision 35.9 23.6 25.8 Prison 46.4 36.1 21.0 State Jail 62.7 54.3 32.2 Substance Abuse Felony Punishment Facility 44.4 35.4 45.4 In-Prison Therapeutic Community 46.7 34.0 21.3 Intermediate Sanction Facility 59.2 47.4 39.4 Parole Supervision 44.2 33.9 19.8 Fiscal Year 2016 Felony Revocation Rates Felony Community Supervision 15.3% Parole Supervision 7.2% NOTES: Reconviction rate includes individuals that have been convicted or reconvicted. SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice; Texas Department of Public Safety. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 16
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Recidivism and Revocation Rates: Highlights Fiscal Year 2013 Juvenile Populations Rearrest % Readjudication % Incarceration/Reincarceration % Deferred Prosecution Supervision 42.5 11.1 1.6 Adjudicated Probation Supervision 63.1 27.8 10.3 Local Secure Residential Facility 73.9 45.6 22.0 State Residential Facility 69.3 63.4 41.5 Fiscal Year 2016 Felony Revocation Rates Deferred Prosecution Supervision 0.3% Adjudicated Probation Supervision 5.7% Parole Supervision 24.3% NOTES: Readjudication rate includes individuals that have been adjudicated, readjudicated, or convicted. SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice; Texas Department of Public Safety; Texas Juvenile Justice Department. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 17
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Per Day: Overview The Criminal and Juvenile Justice costs per day per person are calculated for various criminal and juvenile justice correctional populations. The costs per day are used in funding determinations and to provide a basis of comparison among correctional facilities and programs and previously published costs per day. Uniform costs are assessments of the total costs of operating a correctional facility or program and are reported as costs per day per person. Costs per day were calculated for various Texas Department of Criminal Justice (TDCJ) and Texas Juvenile Justice Department (TJJD) populations and programs for fiscal years 2015 and 2016. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 18
Criminal and Juvenile Justice Uniform Cost Per Day: Highlights TDCJ Population Prison (systemwide) Parole Supervision Community Supervision Fiscal Year 2015 $55.61 $4.07 $3.36 Fiscal Year 2016 $61.63 $4.39 $3.42 TJJD Population Fiscal Year 2015 Fiscal Year 2016 State Residential Facilities $427.91 $441.92 Parole Supervision $36.26 $39.12 Juvenile Probation Supervision $14.69 $14.39 NOTES: The costs per day for community supervision and juvenile probation supervision represent a total cost per day and includes both the state and local cost of supervision. SOURCES: Legislative Budget Board; Texas Department of Criminal Justice; Texas Juvenile Justice Department. FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 19
Contact the LBB Legislative Budget Board www.lbb.state.tx.us 512.463.1200 FEBRUARY 8, 2017 LEGISLATIVE BUDGET BOARD ID: 3723 20