Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from December 2015) By Patrick Vinck, Phuong Pham, Tino Kreutzer Content: p3. BURUNDI - Insecurity and violence in Burundi affect security and the economy in Uvira p5. INSECURITY Perception of insecurity remains high in the cities of Goma, Beni, despite overall improvement p7. WEAPONS - The presence of firearms for protection is associated with insecurity and lack of trust in the police p8. DETAILED ANALYSIS - efforts against sexual violence are perceived positively, but remain relatively unknown p14. KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS
About the Poll Results for this poll are based on 3,825 interviews conducted in December 2015 with randomly selected adults in the following cities and territories: Province / District Territoire / Ville Echantillon North Kivu City of Goma 221 City of Beni 292 City of Butembo 301 Lubero 216 Masisi 240 Rutshuru 219 South Kivu City of Bukavu 274 Idjwi 216 Mwenga 212 Shabunda 216 Uvira 235 City of Uvira 304 Ituri City of Bunia 290 Aru 180 Irumu 192 Mahagi 217 TOTAL 3,825 (Error margin of ± 5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level) For more information, visit www.peacebuildingdata.org/drc Or contact info@peacebuilding.org About the Project This survey is the fifth in a series of surveys that will be conducted to provide reliable data and analysis on peace, security, justice and reconstruction in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The project is a joint initiative of the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), in collaboration with MONUSCO Civil Affairs. HHI is responsible for the data collection, the independent data analysis and report writing, working with partners such as l'université Libre des Pays des Grands Lacs, Université Catholique de Bukavu et Université de Bunia. Publications : Poll Report #5, January 2016 (Data from December 2015) Poll Report #4, November 2015 (Data from September - October 2015) Poll Report #3, August 2015 (Data from June-July 2015) Poll Report #2, June 2015 (Data from March-May 2015) Poll Report #1, March 2015 (Data from December 2014) Baseline, May 2013 (Data from December 2013) A project of In collaboration with With support from Harvard Humanitarian Initiative, United Nations Development Program The information provided and views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the views of the project partners
BURUNDI - Insecurity and violence in Burundi affect security and the economy in Uvira The political and security crisis in Burundi has resulted in the displacement of nearly 20,000 Burundians toward South Kivu, mainly in the Uvira region. Burundian rebels are also allegedly present on Congolese territory. The Burundi crisis is seen as a potential source of insecurity in eastern Congo. In Uvira territory, almost one in three (29%) think the Burundi crisis has had a negative impact on safety at night, and more than one in five (22%) argued that the crisis has had a negative effect on safety during the day. The percentage of people thinking that the crisis has had a negative effect on safety is lower in the city of Uvira compared to the rest of the territoire. However, the economic impact of the crisis is strongly felt in both the city and the rest of the territoire. Between a quarter and a third of respondents in the city of Uvira think the crisis negatively affects product availability (28%) and price (32%). The percentage is similar to the Uvira territory (30% and 28% consider a negative effect on the availability of products and prices, respectively). Impact of the Burundi crisis Negative impact No impact Other response Impact on security during the day Impact on security at night City of Uvira Territoire of Uvira City of Uvira Territoire of Uvira 1% 10% 6% 22% 2% 13% 4% 29% 88% 72% 85% 66% Impact on market prices Impact on availability of products on the market City of Uvira Territoire of Uvira City of Uvira Territoire of Uvira 1% 32% 5% 28% 5% 28% 5% 30% 68% 67% 67% 65% Data from December 2015 The perceived impact of the crisis in Burundi on security and its economic impact vary by gender of respondents. Overall, in Uvira (city and country), the sense of security in daily activities is more common among women (75%) than among men (64%). Considering security at night, 71% of women say they Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 3
walk alone in security against only 49% of men. These results are different from provincial trends or women generally feel less safe than men at night. Considering the effects of the crisis in Burundi on security, men are more frequently negative than women - 29% of men think that their safety in daily activities has deteriorated, against 10% of women; and 40% of men feel their safety to walk alone at night has deteriorated, against only 12% of women. There are fewer differences between men and women regarding the perception of the economic impact of the crisis in Burundi - 29% of men and 29% of women think that the crisis has had a negative impact on market prices, and 31% of men and 27% of women argue that the crisis has had a negative effect on the availability of products on the market. Sense of security in Uvira (city and territoire - % safe very safe) 75% Activités quotidiennes 64% 70% 71% Marcher seul la nuit 49% 60% Femme Homme Total Femme Homme Total Impact of the Burundi crisis by gender (city and territoire) Negative impact No impact Other response Impact on security during the day Impact on security at night Women Men Women Men 7% 10% 2% 6% 12% 29% 2% 40% 83% 69% 82% 59% Impact on market prices Impact on availability of products on the market Women Men Women Men 5% 29% 2% 29% 6% 27% 2% 31% 66% 69% 67% 67% Data from December 2015 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 4
INSECURITY Perception of insecurity remains high in the cities of Goma, Beni, despite overall improvement Persistent conflict and the presence of armed groups in eastern Congo contribute to a feeling of permanent insecurity among the population. However, in everyday life, it is the fear of thefts and assaults (28%) and the presence of bandits (20%) that are the main direct causes of insecurity. Among 14 situations examined, the situation in which respondents felt least safe is to walk alone at night. Overall the sense of security walking alone at night has improved in eastern Congo over the last 2 years (44% to 53% between December 2013 and December 2015), especially in South Kivu (38% to 55%). The sense of security is the lowest in North Kivu (December 2015-46%) compared to other provinces. It is particularly low in the cities of Goma (Dec. 2015-14%) and Beni (Dec. 2015-10%). Sense of security walking alone at night (% safe very safe) Provincial trends 62% 63% 60% Ituri 52% 53% 55% SK 53% TOTAL 44% 46% 51% 46% NK 43% 38% 41% 40% 41% Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Trends in main urban centers (cities) 47% Butembo 42% Bunia 31% Bukavu 14% Goma 10% Ville de Beni Dec. 2013 Dec. 2014 Mar. 2015 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Data from December 2013 to December 2015 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 5
The provincial-level analysis of the sense of safety masks significant differences between women and men. Data collected between September and December 2015 show that the relationship between gender and sense of security is not simple. In North Kivu, women often feel more secure than men in their daily activities (74% v. 68%). In South Kivu, these percentages are similar across gender (80%), and in Ituri, women feel less frequently safe than men in their daily activities (74% v. 85%). In all provinces, women feel less safe than men walking at night, although there are differences by territoires. Compared with men, women are more frequently trusting of the police to ensure their security in South Kivu (55% v. 35%) and Ituri (67% v. 51%). In North Kivu, the difference between men and women is not significant (57% v. 59%). Sense of security (% safe very safe) and trust in the police (% trust) by gender and province Women Men Total Sense of security daily activities NK SK Ituri TOTAL 74% 80% 74% 76% 68% 80% 85% 76% 71% 80% 79% 76% Sense of security walking alone at night NK SK Ituri TOTAL 41% 53% 52% 48% 51% 58% 69% 58% 46% 55% 60% 53% Trust in the police to ensure security NK SK Ituri TOTAL 57% 55% 67% 59% 59% 35% 51% 49% 58% 45% 59% 54% Data from September to December 2015 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 6
WEAPONS - The presence of firearms for protection is associated with insecurity and lack of trust in the police The conflicts in eastern DRC have had as a corollary a major proliferation of small arms among the population. According to a 2011 study, 1 about half or more of respondents had heard gun shots in their village / neighborhood during the six months period prior to the survey. According to the same survey, 72% of respondents indicated the likely presence or some small-caliber weapons in their neighborhood or village, but only 9% acknowledged the presence of small arms in the household. According to the polls from September and December 2015, 16% of respondents acknowledged that firearms were used in their village or neighborhood for reasons of defense and protection. The presence of firearms for protection reasons was mentioned more frequently by men (22%) compared to women (9%), and in Fizi (36%), Kalehe (33%) and Irumu (31%) compared to the other territoires. The results also suggest that the presence of firearms for protection reasons is associated with feelings of insecurity. Among respondents feeling safe walking at night, 15% reported the presence of firearms. Among respondents not feeling safe walking at night, 23% reported the presence of firearms. Similarly trust in the police is associated with a lower presence of firearms. These results suggest that enhancing the sense of security and trust in the police may be associated with a reduction in the presence of weapons. Presence of weapons (% reporting presence) by gender and province and association with sense of security and trust in the police 22% 23% 22% 16% 14% 17% 16% 15% 16% 14% 9% Women Men NK SK Ituri Total Est Safe Mean Not safe Yes No Gender Province Sense of security Trust police for security Data from September to December 2015 1 Berghezan G, Zeebroek X (2011). Armes Légères à l Est du Congo: Enquête sur la perception de l insécurité, Bruxelles, Editions GRIP Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 7
DETAILED ANALYSIS - efforts against sexual violence are perceived positively, but remain relatively unknown The incidence of sexual violence during the 12 months preceding the interview revealed by the polls is low - about 14 per 1,000 among women and 10 per 1,000 among men. In one-third of the cases, women reported multiple experiences, and in two out of five cases, firearms were used. Compared to these results, multiple experiences are less common among men (one in eight case), and the use of weapons is also mentioned less frequently than among women (one in eight case). The incidence rate documented here is lower than other rates documented in eastern Congo, ranging from 44 per 1,000 in South Kivu to 64 per 1000 in North Kivu. 2 This can be explained by differences in definition and the interview format which does not facilitate engagement on sensitive and personal topics, resulting in an underestimate of the true incidence. However, the issue of sexual violence was explored in more details, directly and indirectly, during the December 2015 poll. This latest poll shows that of all the cities and territoires covered in December 2015, 3 39% of respondents believe that the fight against sexual violence is a priority of the government, and the same percentage, 39%, consider positively the performance of the government in fighting sexual violence. Perception of the government s performances in the fight against sexual violence and other areas (% positive)* Fight against sexual violence 39% Ensure security Unite the different ethnic groups Establish peace in eastern Congo 30% 30% 28% Improve the lives of the Congolese Reduce poverty Fight against corruption Increase employment 13% 12% 12% 12% * Only for the territoires covered in December 2015 - Data from December 2015 Although the percentage positively judging the government's efforts in the fight against sexual violence is relatively low, it is higher than the perception of government performance in all other areas covered, including peacekeeping efforts (28% of perception positive), unification of the people (30%) 2 Peterman A, Palermo T, Bredenkamp C. 2011. Estimates and Determinants of Sexual Violence against Women in the Democratic Republic of Congo. American journal of public health, 101(6), pp.1060-1067. 3 Les zones couvertes sont les villes de Goma, Beni, Butembo, Bukavu, Uvira, et Bunia, et les territoires de Lubero, Masisi, Rutshuru, Idjwi, Mwenga, Shabunda, Uvira, Aru, Irumu, et Mahagi. La moyenne régionale pour les villes et territoires couverts est obtenue en utilisant un facteur de pondération qui ajuste le résultat pour les différences de de taille de la population entre strates. Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 8
and securing the population (30%), and significantly higher than the percentage of positive views on poverty reduction efforts (13%) or perception of the fight against corruption (12%) and on job creation (12%). Overall women perceive the government's efforts positively more frequently than men, but this difference is not significant with regard to the efforts against sexual violence. The same poll examined the perception of performances of the police and the judiciary in their work with victims of sexual violence. The percentage viewing these efforts positively are 35% and 46% respectively. The percentage judging positively the efforts of the Government is similar (39%), which is higher than the percentage of respondents who trust the civilian justice system in general (31% for the areas sampled in December 2015), but lower than the percentage of people who trust the police to ensure security (53% for the areas sampled in December 2015). Perception of the judiciary system s efforts to ensure justice for victims of sexual violence (% positive)* Total Perception of the police s efforts to investigate crimes of sexual violence (% positive)* Total 46% 35% Women Men Women Men 42% 50% 33% 36% NK SK IT NK SK IT 48% 36% 52% 39% 28% 34% * Only for the territoires covered in December 2015 - Data from December 2015 The perception of efforts against sexual violence by the judiciary and the police are more positive among men (50% and 35% respectively) compared to women (42% and 33%, respectively). In terms of administrative divisions, perceptions are more frequently negative in the surveyed cities and territoires in South Kivu, especially considering the performance of the judicial system (36% against 48% in areas covered North Kivu, and 52 % in areas covered in Ituri). Police efforts are perceived positively most frequently in North Kivu (39% positive) compared Ituri (34%) and South Kivu (28%). Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 9
Across the areas sampled in December 2015, a majority of the population considers that the efforts of the judicial system in cases of sexual violence are better (29%) or similar (45%) compared to the previous year. Improved efforts of the judicial system in cases of sexual violence is most frequently noted in the territoires of Masisi (46%) and Rutshuru (50%). Conversely, this improvement over the previous year is less frequently noted in the territoires of Mahagi (32%) and Idjwi (32%). The efforts of the judicial system in addressing sexual violence are also often considered as better (30%) or similar (41%) to the efforts to address other crimes. The perception among women is however less frequently positive. Just 24% of women think that victims of sexual violence are better served today compared to last year against 35% of men and 64% of women think that victims of sexual violence are similarly or better served than other victims by the judicial system, compared to 78% of men. Perception of the judiciary system s efforts to ensure justice for victims of sexual violence compared to previous year * Perception of the police s efforts to investigate crimes of sexual violence compared to previous year * No response, 10% Better, 29% No response, 12% Better, 30% Same, 45% Worse, 16% Same, 43% Worse, 15% Perception of the judiciary system s efforts to ensure justice for victims of sexual violence compared to other crimes * Perception of the police s efforts to investigate crimes of sexual violence compared to other crimes* No response, 9% Better, 30% No response, 11% Better, 32% Same, 41% Same, 39% Worse, 20% Worse, 18% * Only for the territoires covered in December 2015 - Data from December 2015 Similarly, efforts of the police in addressing sexual violence are seen as better (30%) or similar (45%) compared to the previous year. Just 15% believe that these efforts are not as good as the last year, especially in the territories of Mahagi (33%) and Idjwi (30%). Improvement of police efforts in adressing sexual violence is most frequently noted in the territoires of Masisi 48%) and Rutshuru (60%). The police's efforts in addressing sexual violence are also considered as better (32%) or similar (37%) to the efforts for other crimes. The perception is different among women and men: 26% of women think that victims of sexual violence are better served today compared to last year against 35% of men and 64% of Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 10
women think that victims of sexual violence are similarly or better served by the judicial system than other victims, compared to 79% of men. Despite progress, challenges remain. Only half of those surveyed in September and December 2015 4 considered that victims of sexual violence may have their cases heard by courts (52%). It is in South Kivu that the possibility of such cases was the least frequently noted (44%). When people were asked to judge the impartiality of justice for sexual violence, only 30% felt the judiciary was impartial in such case, and 43% spoke of partial justice, in favor of men. Women were more frequently negative in their judgment of the efforts of the judiciary to ensure justice for victims of sexual violence compared to men. However, men considered the judicial system to be partial (48%) more frequently than women (39%). These findings suggest that, for women, the negative perception of the efforts of the judiciary for justice for sexual violence is not necessarily linked to a perception of bias, but rather to other elements such as the protection of victims, stigmatization or lack of results. These will be explored in more detail in future polls. Perception of the judicial system in relation to sexual violence 43% 30% 27% Justice is impartial Justice is partial / for the men Don't know - No reponse 36% 39% 25% Women: Justice is impartial Justice is partial / for the men Don't know - No reponse 23% 48% 29% Men: Justice is impartial Justice is partial / for the men Don't know - No reponse Data from September to December 2015 According to the December 2015 poll, 5 efforts in the fight against sexual violence are perceived positively relative to other government efforts. However, major campaigns and efforts remain little known among the population, including the work of the office of the personal representative of the Head of State against sexual violence (14% of respondents heard of this office), and the campaign "break the silence" (17% heard of the campaign). These initiatives are generally less known in Ituri. The 4 All cities and territoires in eastern DRC 5 Cities of Goma, Beni, Butembo, Bukavu, Uvira, et Bunia, and territoires of Lubero, Masisi, Rutshuru, Idjwi, Mwenga, Shabunda, Uvira, Aru, Irumu, et Mahagi. Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 11
results suggest no differences between men and women in the level of knowledge of these initiatives. However, it should be noted that women have on average a lower level of education than men, and the educational level was significantly associated with the level of information on the fight against sexual violence initiatives: Among those with a high school degree or higher, 24% have heard about the work of the office of the personal representative of the Head of State against sexual violence, compared to 10% among those with little (incomplete primary) or no education. Heard about the work of the office of the personal representative of the Head of State in the fight against sexual violence (% yes) * Heard of the campaign "Break the silence" (% yes)* Total 15% Total 17% NK SK IT NK SK IT 16% 14% 12% 19% 24% 6% * Only for the territoires covered in December 2015 - Data from December 2015 Finally, the September and December 2015 polls covering all cities and territories confirm the acceptability - at least in theory of the acceptance of the return of victims of sexual violence in the community; a majority (86%) would agree to the return to their community of a victim of sexual violence, and the same percentage (87%) would agree to the return to their household of a victim of sexual violence. The percentage of people agreeing to the return of a woman victim of sexual violence decreases in the hypothesis that she had a child because of the violation (81%) or in case of health consequences in the form of illness or injury (77 %). In general, women more often accept the return of other women victims of sexual violence than men, whether in the community or household. The differences between men and women are more marked considering the return to the home of a female victim of sexual violence that led to the birth of a child (86% of women agree against 77% of men), or leading to illnesses or injuries (82% of women agree against 72% of men). The difference in attitude between genders is strongest in Ituri. For example, 80% of women in Ituri accept the return in the household of a woman victim of sexual violence that led to illnesses or injuries against 52% of men. Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 12
Acceptance of the return of women victims of sexual violence under selected circumstances (% accept) Femmes Hommes Total Accept return in your community NK SK IT TOTAL 92% 88% 81% 88% 85% 91% 71% 83% 89% 90% 76% 86% Accept return in the household NK SK IT TOTAL 92% 90% 80% 88% 86% 92% 73% 85% 89% 91% 77% 87% Accept return in the household with child born because of the sexual violence experienced NK SK IT TOTAL 85% 89% 82% 86% 77% 86% 64% 77% 81% 87% 74% 81% Accept return in the household with wound or disease because of the sexual violence experienced NK SK IT TOTAL 78% 88% 80% 82% 76% 83% 52% 72% 77% 85% 67% 77% Données de Septembre - Décembre 2015 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 13
KEY GLOBAL INDICATORS (DEC. 2015) The following indicators are monitored in all the polls. Provincial averages may mask significant differences between territories - detailed results by territories are available on the www.peacebuildingdata.org site. Aggregate statistics are based on the latest poll available in each territory. SENSE OF SECURITY (% safe very safe) Latest data (September December 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Daily activities Walking alone at night Daily activities Walking alone at night 71% 46% 80% 79% 76% 55% 60% 53% 67% 70% 72% 76% 44% 46% 51% 53% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 PERCEPTION OF SECURITY ACTORS (% trust for security) Latest data (September December 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Police FARDC MONUSCO Police FARDC MONUSCO 58% 52% 52% 45% 25% 20% 59% 44% 54% 50% 28% 24% 61% 53% 51% 54% 54% 49% 49% 50% NK SK Ituri TOTAL 25% 26% 24% 24% Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 14
PERCEPTION OF RELATIONS WITHIN AND ACROSS ETHNIC GROUPS (% good very good) Latest data (September December 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Relations with your ethnic group Relations with other ethnic groups 84% 85% 80% 82% 77% 76% 77% 74% 89% 79% Relations with your ethnic group Relations with other ethnic groups 81% 82% 82% 74% 77% 77% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 TRUST IN JUSTICE (% little none) Latest data (September December 2015) Regional trends (NK, SK, Ituri) Civilian justice system Military justice system Civilian justice system Military justice system 70% 70% 75% 74% 74% 74% 72% 72% 69% 75% 75% 75% 75% 73% 72% 65% NK SK Ituri TOTAL Dec. 2013 Jun. 2015 Sep. 2015 Dec. 2015 Peacebuilding and Reconstruction Polls, Report 5, 01/2016 15