INDIA-EU DIALOGUE ON MIGRATION AND MOBILITY Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) Rajat Kathuria, Director and CE rkathuria@icrier.res.in 26 September 2017
OVERVIEW oexploring India-EU complementarities oindia-eu migration trends olabour mobility ostudent mobility o Tourist flows oway forward
Exploring India-EU complementarities
Prime workforce (25-49 years, in 000 and percent) 600,000 40 500,000 400,000 300,000 35 30 25 20 200,000 100,000 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 EU (with UK) EU (without UK) India EU (%, with UK) EU (%, without UK) India (%) 15 10 5 0 Source: World Population Prospects: The 2017 Revision (medium variant), United Nations Population Division.
Employment growth (%) in EU by sectors, 2015-2025 Mining & quarrying Agriculture, forestry & fishing Energy supply services Water and waste treatment Manufacturing Public sector & defence Transport & storage Construction Education Wholesale & retail trade Accommodation & food Arts & recreation Finance & insurance Health & social care ICT services Administrative services Professional services -16.68-15.86-8.90-6.78-3.92-3.92 0.46 0.90 0.98 4.07 5.52 7.21 7.63 7.83 7.97 12.72 16.30 Source: European Centre for the Development of Vocational Training (CEDEFOP).
Skills shortages in EU Occupations for which there are skill shortages o higher skill ICT and STEM professionals, medical doctors, nurses, midwives, teachers o intermediate skill cooks, welders and truck drivers Reasons for shortage o Insufficient supply of graduates o Rapid technical advancements o Less enrollments to study, STEM with high entry requirements and high dropout rates o Low participation of women in STEM Country-specific shortages o Healthcare o Legal professionals o Financial analysts Bulgaria, Hungary and Slovakia (due to emigration); Denmark, Croatia, Latvia and Austria (due to retention challenges) Estonia and France Ireland, UK, Hungary and Luxembourg Source: CEDEFOP.
Some Challenges o Movement of people is affected by lack of mutual recognition of qualifications and skills India and EU have not been able to conclude Mutual Recognition Agreements (MRAs) of qualifications Gaps in implementation of EU s Services Directive and Directive 2005/36/EC on recognition of professional qualifications o In 2005, EC developed a set of 11 common basic principles (CBPs) for mainstreaming integration measures o In 2011, a review of CBPs highlighted several challenges regarding integration of migrants low levels of employment among migrants, especially migrant women rising levels of unemployment and high levels of over-qualification of migrants compared to the jobs they do gaps in educational attainment increasing risk of social exclusion of migrants public concerns with the lack of integration of migrants
Policy engagement so far India-EU Common Agenda for Migration and Mobility (CAMM) endorsed at India-EU Summit (30 March 2016) Several bilateral and multilateral agreements (including trade, social security, labour mobility) have been signed between India and EU (and Member States) to facilitate mobility Under GATS, services can be traded internationally in four different ways o Mode 1: Cross-border supply (e.g. banking services transmitted via telecommunications or mail) o Mode 2: Consumption abroad (e.g. tourist or patient) o Mode 3: Commercial presence (e.g. domestic subsidiaries of foreign insurance companies or hotel chains) o Mode 4: Presence of natural persons (e.g. students, doctors, teachers, etc.)
India-EU migration trends
Migrant inflows from BRICS to EU 21 (as % of total) 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2000 2005 2010 2015 India China Brazil Russia South Africa Note: 'Total migrant inflows' is representative of migration from outside the EU as well as migration from within the EU. EU (21) consists of Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Latvia, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom. Source: OECD Migration Statistics (Definition of immigrants varies across OECD countries).
Migration from India to EU and US, 2000-2015 140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 EU (21 - with UK) EU without UK US Source: OECD.
India-EU migration by selected countries, 2015 Migrant outflows from India to select EU MS Stock of Indian migrants in EU member states Denmark Poland France Belgium Spain Sweden Netherlands Italy Germany United Kingdom Belgium Austria Ireland Sweden Netherlands Spain France Germany Italy United Kingdom 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 Source: OECD international migration database. 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Source: United Nations Population Division: The 2015 revision (latest available).
Stock of migrants from EU MS in India, 2015 Portugal 156 France 1,142 Germany 2,147 United Kingdom 4,866 Source: United Nations Population Division: The 2015 revision.
Residence permits (3 months and above) granted to Indian citizens in EU by various reasons 2016 53,178 30,983 55,757 55,558 2012 39,074 23,436 46,516 48,529 2008 33,075 34,562 62,032 24,389 Family Education Remunerated activities Others Note: 'Others' category includes diplomats, consular officers treated as exempt from control; retired persons of independent means; all other passengers given limited leave to enter who are not included in any other category; non-asylum discretionary permissions. Source: Eurostat.
Residence permits (3 months and above) granted to Indian citizens in EU including and excluding UK 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 2008 2016 Total Family Education Remunerated activities Others European Union (28 countries) EU (Excluding UK) Source: Eurostat.
Labour Mobility
Labour mobility trends 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 Permits granted to Indian citizens for remunerative activities in the EU (28) 62,032 72,161 46,516 54,866 55,757 2016 2014 2012 Top 5 member states as of 2016 granting permits for employment reasons 30,000 20,000 10,000 2010 2008 0 Source: Eurostat. 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016-5,000 5,000 15,000 25,000 35,000 45,000 United Kingdom Germany Netherlands Sweden Denmark
Irregular Indian migrants in EU MS, 2016 Cyprus Spain Greece Italy Belgium Portugal Austria France Germany United Kingdom European Union (28 countries) 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 Source: Eurostat.
Managing migration from third countries Approaches adopted by MS to manage migration from third countries (European Migration Network, 2013) o Occupation lists where labour shortages exist Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Spain, United Kingdom o Employers needs analysis Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Poland, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden o Quotas and limits to restrict labor migration of third-country nationals Austria, Estonia, Hungary, Italy, Portugal, Slovenia, Norway, United Kingdom Bilateral and multilateral agreements (viz. social security agreements, labor mobility partnerships, trade agreements, etc.) promoting fair recruitment practices, equal treatment to migrant workers, access and portability of benefits for migrant workers
Facilitating labor mobility Bilateral agreements Area of cooperation Agreements Main objectives of the agreement/collaboration Labour Mobility Labour Mobility and Partnership Agreement Promote orderly migration of workers from between India and Denmark India to meet the growing demand for skilled and trained workers in the Danish economy Prevent illegal migration and the smuggling of people for financial benefits In force Current status Social Security Social Security Agreements Norway (2010), Denmark (2009), Luxembourg (2009), Social security benefits across jurisdictions In force Netherlands (2009), Belgium (2006), French Republic (2008), Germany (2008), Hungary (2010), Czech Republic (2010), Sweden (2012), Finland (2012), Austria (2013) Portugal (2013), Social security benefits across jurisdictions Not in force Trade Identification and return of Swiss and Indian Nationals Germany (2011) EU-India Broad-based Trade and Investment Agreement (BTIA) European Free Trade Area (EFTA) - India Free trade agreement: Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement (TEPA) Bilateral Technical Arrangement between India and Switzerland Enhance trade, investment and cooperation by removing the existing barriers Return of irregular migrants between the two countries In negotiations, since 2007 In negotiations September 2016 Source: Ministry of External Affairs website, Government of India.
Student Mobility
Flow of tertiary level students from India to selected countries, 2014-15 120,000 50.0 100,000 45.0 40.0 80,000 35.0 30.0 60,000 25.0 40,000 20.0 15.0 20,000 10.0 5.0 0 United States Australia UK New Zealand Canada UAE Germany Russian Federation Ukraine Kyrgyzstan 0.0 Number of Indian students abroad as % mobile Indian students abroad Source: UNESCO.
Top 5 EU MS granting education permits to Indians 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 United Kingdom Germany Poland France Cyprus 2008 2016 Source: Eurostat.
Factors affecting student mobility to EU Entry and admission o recognition of third country qualifications o linguistic and cultural barriers o payment of tuition fees o availability of scholarships o visa and immigration policies o imposition of caps on length of time to complete studies Employment o access to the labour market during study o participation in the labour market following completion of studies Bilateral agreements between India and the EU Member States
Facilitating student mobility Bilateral agreements UK Country MoU/Joint Declaration of Intent (JDI) Status Joint statement between the MHRD and Department of Business, Signed in New Delhi on November 13, Innovation and Skills 2014 MoU between MHRD and Department of business, innovation and skills, UK A framework for the UK India Education and Research Initiative (UKIERI) (2016-21) Signed in New Delhi and London on April 7 and March 18, 2015 Germany MoU between Ministry of Human Resource Development (MHRD) and Federal Minsitry of Education and Research on Cooperation in the field of higher education Signed in Berlin on April 11, 2013 JDI between MHRD and the Federal Foreign Office regarding the Promotion of German as a Foreign Language in India and the Promotion of Modern Indian Languages m Germany Signed in New Delhi on October 5, 2015 France Exchange Programme between India and France on cooperation in the field of education Signed in New Delhi on February 15, 2007 Source: Ministry of Human Resource Development website, Government of India.
Tourist flows
Tourist arrivals in India from select EU MS and US (in 000's), 2003 and 2015 2,000 35 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 United Kingdom Germany France Italy Netherlands Spain Sweden Belgium Total (of 16 MS) Arrivals in 2003 Arrivals in 2015 % of total arrivals in India in 2003 % of total arrivals in India in 2015 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: India Tourism Statistics
Tourists from China and India to Europe (in 000's), 2016 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 Entire Europe Northern Europe Western Europe Southern Europe Central / Eastern Europe China India Source: European Tourism: Trends and Prospects (Q4/2016).
Way Forward This presentation will be followed by a comprehensive report on EU-India Cooperation on Migration and Mobility, based on oextensive literature review oinsights from key stakeholders oprogress made on ongoing agreements oinputs provided by relevant international organizations Kindly share your inputs / comments / suggestions by writing to amehdi@icrier.res.in.
THANK YOU!