THE NEW SECURITY AGENDA IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

THE NEW SECURITY AGENDA IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC REGION

The New Security Agenda in the Asia-Pacific Region Edited by Denny Roy Strategic and Defence Studies Centre The Australian National University Canberra

First published in Great Britain 1997 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-25703-4 ISBN 978-1-349-25701-0 (ebook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-25701-0 First published in the United States of America 1997 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-0-312-17371-5 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data The New security agenda in the Asia-Pacific region / edited by Denny Roy. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-17371-5 (cloth) I. National security-asia. 2. National security-pacific Area. I. Roy, Denny, 1960- UA830.N485 1997 355'.03305-<1c21 97-11429 CIP Selection and editorial matter Denny Roy 1997 Chapter I Denny Roy 1997 Chapter 3 John Chipman 1997 Chapter 9 Gerald Segal 1997 Chapters 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 and 11 Macmillan Press Ltd 1997 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1 st edition 1997 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WI P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 06 05 04 03 02 01 4 3 2 I 00 99 98 97

Contents Notes on the Contributors List of Acronyms vi vii I. Introduction: Old and New Agendas Denny Roy 2. World Order: New Challenges at the Global Level Robert O'Neill 5 3. The New Regionalism: A voiding Strategic Hubris John Chipman 20 4. New Dimensions of Security Alall Dupont 31 5. The Impact of Economics in the New Asia-Pacific Region Stuart Harris 51 6. Environmental Scarcities and Conflict: Assessing the Evidence in the Asia-Pacific Region Philip Howard 64 7. Beyond Armageddon? The Shape of Conflict in the Twenty-First Century Stewart Woodman 76 8. The Emerging Strategic Architecture in the Asia-Pacific Region Paul Dibb 99 9. 'Enlitening' China? Gerald Segal 121 10. The US-Japan Security Relationship in a New Era Aurelia George Mulgan 140 11. The Strategic Dynamics of Post-Cold War Southeast Asia J. Soedjati Djiwandono 170 Index 181

Notes on the Contributors John Chipman is Director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London. Paul Dibb is Professor and Head of the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. J. Soedjati Djiwandono is Head of the Department of International Relations, Centre for Strategic and International Studies, Jakarta. Alan Dupont is a Research Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. Aurelia George Mulgan lectures in the School of Politics, University of New South Wales, Australian Defence Force Academy. Stuart Harris is Professor and Convenor of the Northeast Asia Program, Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies, Australian National University. Philip Howard is a researcher with the Project on Environment, Population and Security in the Peace and Conflict Studies Program, University of Toronto. Robert O'Neill is Chichele Professor of the History of War at All Souls College, Oxford. Denny Roy is a Research Fellow in the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. Gerald Segal is a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London; Director of the United Kingdom Economic and Social Research Council's Pacific Asia Programme; and Co-Chair of the European Council for Security Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific region. Stewart Woodman is Director of Graduate Studies at the Strategic and Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University. vi

List of Acronyms ACSA ADB AEW&C AFfA APEC ARF ASEAN C3 C3I CBM CIS CLO COCOM CSCE CTBT DMZ EASR ECOWAS EFfA EU PM FPDA GATT GCC GDP GNP IMF IPR JDA JSTARS LDP MFN NAFfA NATO NDPO NPT OAU Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement Asian Development Bank Airborne Early Warning and Control ASEAN Free Trade Agreement Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation ASEAN Regional Forum Association of Southeast Asian Nations Command, Control and Communications Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence confidence building measure Commonwealth of Independent States Cabinet Legislative Office (Japan) Coordinating Committee on Multilateral Export Controls Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe Comprehensive Test Ban Talks demilitarised zone East Asia Strategy Report Economic Organisation of West African States European Free Trade Area European Union Foreign Ministry (Japan) Five-Power Defence Arrangements General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade Gulf Cooperation Council gross domestic product gross national product International Monetary Fund intellectual property rights Japan Defence Agency Joint Strategic Airborne Reconnaissance System Liberal Democratic Party (Japan) most favoured nation North American Free Trade Agreement North Atlantic Treaty Organisation National Defence Programme Outline Non-Proliferation Treaty Organisation for African Unity VII

viii OECD OSCE PECC PMC PNG ROC SAARC SAR SDP SDP SEATO SLOCs UAV UN UNCAR UNCLOS UNHCR US WEU WTO ZOPFAN The New Security Agenda in the Asia-Pacific Region Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Organisation on Security and Cooperation in Europe Pacific Economic Cooperation Council Post-Ministerial Conference Papua New Guinea Republic of China South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation search and rescue Self-Defence Forces Social Democratic Party (Japan) Southeast Asia Treaty Organisation sea lines of communication unmanned aerial vehicle United Nations United Nations Conventional Arms Register United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees United States West European Union W orid Trade Organisation Zone of Peace, Freedom and Neutrality