MEMORANDUM TO: Interested Parties FROM: Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez DATE: November 9, 2010 RE: Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 The 2010 mid-term election was a stunning rebuke to the Obama Administration and Democrats in Congress. Much of that rebuke was driven by Independents, who comprised 28 percent of the electorate and supported Republican congressional candidates by the overwhelming margin of 56 to 38 percent. That represents a dramatic 36-point turnaround from the last mid-term election in 2006, when Independents supported Democratic congressional candidates by 57 to 39 percent. Given that an equal percentage of Democrats and Republicans voted in 2010 (36 percent), these Independent voters clearly played a decisive role in the Republican gains. Independent Voter Preferences Since our inaugural survey in April 2009, Resurgent Republic has been chronicling the migration of Independents away from Democrats and toward Republicans, driven by their strong opposition to Democratic fiscal and health care initiatives. Our 2010 post-election survey, conducted jointly with Democracy Corps, demonstrates clearly how Independent voters are now far closer to Republicans than Democrats on their outlook on the direction of the country, their attitudes about its political leadership, and their policy preferences.
The Overall Political Climate 1. Independents and Republicans feel strongly that the country is off on the wrong track, while Democrats are much more positive in their outlook. Democrats who voted in the 2010 election say the country is going in the right direction by 55 to 33 percent. But Republicans think the country is off on the wrong track by 92 to 4 percent, and Independents by 79 to 14 percent. This fundamental pessimism about the direction of the country under Democratic control of the Presidency, the House and the Senate drove the overall election result. 2. Independents and Republicans overwhelmingly say government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals. Sixty percent of Independents say "government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals," versus only 34 percent who say "government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people." That 60-34 percent margin among Independents is up from 55-40 in Resurgent Republic's survey in April 2009. Republicans agree with Independents that government is doing too much by 74 to 25 percent. But Democrats think government should do more by 76 to 21 percent. 3. While Democrats blame former President Bush and Republicans in Congress for the country being on the wrong track, Republicans and Independents blame President Obama and Democrats in Congress. As with the direction of the country, Democrats stand on one side of the divide, while Republicans and Independents stand on the other. Seventy-two percent of Democrats place the blame for the current state of the country on former President Bush (48 percent) or Republicans in Congress (24 percent), while 82 percent of Republicans blame President Obama (43 percent) or Democrats in Congress (39 percent). Independents are much closer to Republicans, with 53 percent blaming President Obama (28 percent) or Democrats in Congress (25 percent) versus only 21 percent blaming President Bush (16 percent) or Republicans in Congress (5 percent). 4. The same pattern holds for President Obama's job approval, where Democratic voters overwhelmingly approve while Republicans and Independents overwhelmingly disapprove. The President's overall approve/disapprove rating of 44/52 percent among 2010 voters, with sharp partisan differences between the majority who disapprove and minority who approve. Democrats approve overwhelmingly by 84 to 12 percent, but Republicans disapprove by 91 to 6 percent, as do Independents by 60 to 35 percent. 5. On a 2012 Presidential ballot test pitting President Obama versus a generic Republican candidate, the generic Republican leads among 2010 voters by 50 to 40 percent, and by a two-to-one margin among Independents. Among a broader electorate that includes people who voted in 2008 but not 2010, the generic Republican leads 48 to 42 percent. Democratic voters in 2010 overwhelmingly support the President for reelection by 82 to 8 percent, but Republican voters in 2010 support the generic Republican 92 to 3 percent, as do Independents by 56 to 28 percent. Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 Page 2
Rationale for the 2010 Vote 1. 2010 was a nationalized referendum on President Obama and Democratic control of Congress, not just a series of choices between two candidates. Which party would control Congress was a factor in deciding a Congressional vote for 61 percent of 2010 voters, including 74 percent of Republicans, 57 percent of Democrats, and 51 percent of Independents. Among voters who supported the Republican candidate, 44 percent say their vote was a vote for the particular Republican candidate, 34 percent say it was a vote to provide a check on the agenda of President Obama and Democrats, and 14 percent say it was a vote against the Democrat. A plurality (43 percent) of Independent voters who voted Republican said their vote was driven by a desire to provide a check on President Obama and the Democrats, versus 30 percent who voted for the Republican candidate and 19 percent who voted against the Democratic candidate. Among voters who supported the Democratic candidate, 43 percent say it was a vote to support the agenda of President Obama and Democrats, 43 percent say it was a vote for the particular Democratic candidate, and 10 percent say it was a vote against the Republican. Among Independents who voted Democrat, 46 percent voted for the Democratic candidate, 31 percent voted to support the agenda of President Obama and the Democrats, and 17 percent voted against the Republican. 2. Issue positions were relatively more important to Republican than Democratic voters. Forty-six percent of Republicans say issue positions were the most important reason why they voted for their preferred candidate for Congress, versus 30 percent for character and leadership abilities, and 21 percent for the political party. Among Democratic voters, 38 percent say character and leadership, 35 percent say issue positions, and 22 percent say party. Independents fall between the two partisan groups, with 41 percent saying character and leadership, 40 percent saying issue positions, and 16 saying percent party. Critical Issues The Democratic versus Republican/Independent divide flows through to critical issue debates such as extending tax cuts. Moreover, the Obama health care reform plan became an albatross around the necks of Democratic candidates, and our post-election survey shows why. 1. A majority of Independents and Republicans wants to extend the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts for everyone. The survey gave respondents a choice of two statements: We should extend the tax cuts for everyone, except the wealthy. Cutting taxes permanently for the middle class and raising them for those earning over $250,000 is necessary to reduce the federal deficit and protect Social Security. We should extend the tax cuts for everyone. Raising taxes on anyone in a weak economy is a bad idea, and tax increases would hit small businesses especially hard. Increasing taxes on the people who create jobs is exactly the wrong medicine for a struggling economy. Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 Page 3
2010 voters overall prefer extending the tax cuts for everyone by 49 to 45 percent, including a majority of Independents (51 to 40 percent) and Republicans (74 to 21 percent). Democrats prefer extending them for all except those making over $250,000 by a margin of 69 to 26 percent. 2. A plurality of 2010 voters opposes the Obama health care reform law, including a majority of Independents and virtually unanimous opposition among Republicans. Democrats overwhelmingly favor the health care reform law 81 to 10 percent, but Independents oppose it 51 to 39 percent, as do Republicans by 93 to 3 percent. 3. 2010 voters want to repeal the health care reform law and replace it with other reforms, with strong support for repeal among both Independents and Republicans. Overall 2010 voters support repeal and replace by 51 to 42 percent. Democrats oppose repeal by 80 to 16 percent, but both Independents (by 57 to 31 percent) and Republicans (by 87 to 7 percent) want to repeal and replace it. 4. 2010 voters, including Independents and Republicans, support repealing the health care bill even after strong statements providing the rationale on both sides. We should improve but not repeal the health care reform law, because the insurance companies will lobby to win back the right to drop people or jump their rates if they get sick or have a pre-existing condition and the right to reimpose life time limits and raise rates. We should make changes that keep costs down, but not repeal it. We should repeal the Obama health care reform law, and replace it with reforms to lower costs, allow people to keep the coverage they have now, and give individuals the same tax breaks businesses get to provide health care insurance. Obama's law will drive health care costs through the roof and bankrupt the country. 2010 voters prefer the second statement in support of repeal and replace by 48 to 45 percent. Democrats prefer the first statement against repeal by 73 to 17 percent, while Independents prefer the second statement in favor of repeal by 53 to 42 percent, as do Republicans by 81 to 14 percent. Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 Page 4
People and Group Ratings 1. The Tea Party movement ties the Democratic Party in mean ratings, and the Republican Party slightly leads both but the Tea Party is more popular than either major party among Independents. The Republican Party has a mean score of 46.3, followed by the Tea Party at 45.5, and the Democratic Party at 45.4. The Tea Party has a 50.7 rating among Independents, followed by the Republican Party at 45.3 percent, and the Democratic Party at 36.2 percent. 2. Democratic leaders see significant drops in their ratings among Independents, while the Republican leaders' ratings hold steady. John Boehner rates highest among Independents, with a 45.3 rating, followed by Barack Obama at 42.6, Mitch McConnell at 41.5, Harry Reid at 25.0, and Nancy Pelosi at 23.8. Party Trust 1. 2010 voters, particularly Independents, think that the GOP would do a better job with economic and fiscal issues that are their dominant concerns. Voters trust Republicans to do a better job than Democrats on: jobs and employment by a margin of 46-38, and 50-27 (+23) among Independents. the economy by a margin of 47-38, and 48-25 (+23) among Independents. government spending by a margin of 49-31, and 50-23 (+27) among Independents. the federal budget deficit by a margin of 49-32, and 53-17 (+36) among Independents. taxes by a margin of 51-35, and 54-23 (+31) among Independents. 2. 2010 voters, particularly Independents, associate three positive terms with Republicans rather than Democrats. Voters associate "shares your values" with the GOP by a 47 to 40 percent margin (50 to 24 percent among Independents), "on your side" by a 44 to 42 percent margin (44 to 28 percent among Independents), and "new ideas for addressing the country's problems" by a 41 to 40 percent margin (43 to 24 percent among Independents). 3. Voters are evenly divided in the perception of which of the two major parties is "too partisan." Thirty-four percent of voters say the Republican Party is "too partisan," 33 percent say the Democratic Party is too partisan. But Independents see Republicans as "too partisan" by 8 percentage points more than Democrats (33 to 25 percent). Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 Page 5
4. Democrats have the advantage among 2010 voters on education, Medicare, and health care, but Independents only trust Democrats more on education. Voters trust Democrats to do a better job on education by a 46 to 34 percent margin (41 to 33 percent among Independents), Medicare by a 43 to 39 percent margin (Independents trust Republicans by a 38 to 32 percent margin), and health care by a 45 to 43 percent margin (Independents trust Republicans by a 48 to 33 percent margin). Governing in the Future 1. Republicans are more adamant than Democrats that their party should stick to their core principles. By a margin of 64 to 32 percent, Republican voters say that to win in the future "the Republican Party needs to be more supportive of its core principles," rather than "the Republican Party must move more to the center in order to win over Independent voters." Democratic voters say their party should stick to its core principles by 50 to 44 percent. 2. Not surprisingly, Independents believe both parties should move more to the center, especially Democrats. Independents say the Democratic Party "must move more to the center in order to win over Independent voters" by a margin of 63 to 26 percent. Independents say that about the Republican Party by 50 to 40 percent. 3. Independents and Republicans overwhelmingly believe President Obama should work harder to find common ground with Republicans. By a margin of 76 to 19 percent, Independents say "President Obama should work harder and find common ground with Republicans in Congress going forward," rather than "President Obama should work to achieve his agenda for the country if he thinks it is the right thing." Republicans agree by 87 to 10 percent. But Democrats prefer the second statement by 52 to 43 percent. 4. A desire for compromise and working across party lines is one area where Independents think more like Democrats than like Republicans. By a margin of 61 to 32 percent, Independents think "governing is about compromise, and I want my elected officials to work with the other side to find common ground and pass legislation on important issues," as opposed to "leadership is about taking principled stands and I want my elected officials to stand up for what they believe in, even if it means that legislation on important issues does not pass." Democrats agree with the statement supporting governing and compromise by 73 to 21 percent, but Republicans split evenly between the two statements at 46 percent each. Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 Page 6
Message Recommendations Republicans taking control of the U.S. House and increasing their numbers in the U.S. Senate are in the fortunate position of having a majority of Independent swing voters on the same side of the most pressing issues as core Republican voters. At the moment, it is the Democrats who are "whipsawed" between the voters in the middle of the electorate and their core supporters. Whether it's not raising taxes on any part of the population (including "the rich") or repealing and replacing Obamacare, Republicans enjoy this advantage. This is true not only with those who voted earlier this month, but with a projected electorate for 2012. This advantage is likely rooted in the overwhelming advantage enjoyed by Republicans with Independent voters when it comes to the economic and fiscal issue set. So long as Republicans are tying their legislative efforts back to the issue of jobs and economy, they are likely to continue to enjoy a high level of support among Independent swing voters who are more concerned about the impact of Federal policies than the principles which underlie them. Consequently, Republican arguments in support of their policies to repeal and replace health care, extend the Bush tax cuts, reduce the deficit and others should be tied directly back to the positive effects these policies would have on jobs and the economy. Conservative/Republican voters will agree with the proper role of government arguments that are critical rationales for these policies, but it is important that the voters who played such a decisive role in the mid-term elections see them in the context of the current Republican advantage on jobs and the economy. Methodology This survey consists of 1000 respondents who voted in the 2008 election, with a subsample of 886 respondents who voted in the 2010 election. Republican, Independent, and Democratic numbers are based on the 2010 voters. All calls were conducted Tuesday evening, November 2, and Wednesday, November 3, 2010. Respondents were selected randomly in each state from a random-digit-dialing sample including both cell phone and landline telephone numbers. Responses are weighted for demographics and in the case of 2010 voters, to match the national vote for U.S. House of Representatives as determined by exit polls. The margins of error for responses with an even split 50 percent for one response and 50 percent for another response is ±3.10 percent for the full sample, ±3.29 percent for 2010 voters, ±5.47 percent for Republicans, ±5.90 percent for Independents, and ±5.83 percent for Democrats. The margin of error is smaller when one response receives a higher level of support. For example, the margin of error is ±2.68 percent when 75 percent of respondents in the full sample choose one response and 25 percent choose another response. The survey was conducted jointly by Ayres, McHenry & Associates and Greenberg, Quinlan, Rosner Research. Post-Election Poll Highlights: Independents Propel Republican Victories in 2010 Page 7