ASEANMonitor ISSUE 7 I May 2017 www.c-asean.org ASEAN TOP STORIES AROUND ASEAN ASEAN IN NUMBERS ASEAN Festivities and Fatalities: ASEAN s Unsafe Roads Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Thailand share close cultural ties, and thus also share common New Year traditions, occurring at the same time. The month of April marks the beginning of New Year celebrations in the CLMT countries. In Cambodia, the festivities see Khmer families visiting temples, performing purification rituals, and attending dedication ceremonies to their ancestors, among other rituals of thanks for the coming new year. In Laos, Pi Mai Lao is the occasion where Buddha images are washed (to signify cleansing), temples repainted and homes cleaned. Revolving around family and faith, renewal and revelry, Pi Mai Lao also provides the opportunity for the young to pour water on the hands of their elders and ask for their blessings in the year ahead. In Myanmar, the five-day Thingyan festivities include special food, traditional songs and dances called the Yane. In Thailand, Thais across the country visit their local temples and offer food to Buddhist monks. While Buddha statues are gently bathed with water and elders are shown respect by having water poured over their hands, many locals and foreign visitors participate in what has evolved to be the world s biggest water fight. For many tourists, the water fights are synonymous with ASEAN s New Year traditions as the occasion provides for grand celebrations. It is a major tourism draw, boosting ASEAN economies, CLMT countries in particular, during the New Year period. However, away from economic considerations, there is a darker side to the ASEAN New Year celebrations, which causes thousands of road accidents and assaults. In Thailand alone, there were a total of 390 deaths from road accidents that the Thai Interior Ministry has chiefly attributed to drunk driving accidents during the period of 11-17 April this year. While the occasion demands proper celebrations by locals and tourists alike, there are greater incentives for all ASEAN countries to stress the significance of responsible and sustainable celebrations during the festive periods. Marking the end of the New Year and in view of the upcoming Global Road Safety Week in May (as well as in line with the SDG 3 target aiming to halve the number of deaths and injuries from road traffic crashes by 2020), ASEAN policymakers are provided with a vital task to review and enhance ASEAN legislations on key risk factors concerning road traffic fatalities in the region. Road Traffic Fatalities ASEAN laws on key risk factors Global Road Safety Week May 8-14, 2017 Drink-Driving Speed Helmets Seat-belts Child restraints Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Laos Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Thailand Singapore Vietnam Source: WHO; C asean analysis. Meets criteria for best practice No law/law doesn t meet best practice Meets some of criteria for best practice No data available
ASEAN TOP STORIES BRUNEI Earth Day Heroes Celebrations in Brunei for Earth Day 2017 and the one-year anniversary of The Paris Agreement were well deserved and warranted. These two events were holidays for locals to collectively learn what Brunei has done over the past year with regards to cleaning up the country s pollutants through incentives for clean business practices, with the diminishing of gas emissions as a key discussion point. Brunei s Forestry Department under the Ministry of Primary Resources and Tourism has taken charge in orchestrating panels and events throughout the year to better equip the local citizens on not only gas emission knowledge, but also spread word and content about sustainable farming techniques, indigenous food, plants, and animal species, as well as how Bruneians may help tackle climate change problems on a day-to-day basis. These events were constructed in high hopes of educating the public to take action sooner than later with regards to becoming a greener nation. Public and private teamwork has seen tremendous growth since last year. Support for farmers, campaigns against deforestation, and updated classroom curriculums in higher education institutions pertaining to studying climate change and its impact were all tasks exercised throughout the year. CAMBODIA Khmer New Year: Modernization Coming Over the three-day Songkran Festival in Phnom Penh, 50,000 people worked together with the aim of establishing the first large-scale Khmer New Year celebration in recent Cambodian history. Cambodians have much to celebrate. The World Bank recently approved a $100M loan to improve secondary education infrastructure and surrounding roads for the modernization of rural areas. By doing so, Cambodia will be more attractive for foreign teachers in years to come, which is geared towards strengthening the overall content and structure for students. This loan is to create safer roads for locals traveling to and from school in the wet season as well; the entire ecosystem will be impacted in a positive way, not just children and schools. Government officials understand that Cambodia must not rely only on low wages to attract foreign direct investment anymore. By developing these secondary schools and building better roads, the trickle-down effect states that rural personnel will positively impact the Cambodian economy due in large to these infrastructure developments. Reforming the education system will provide opportunities for locals to be more involved in the supply chain operations while continually improving the overall wellness of the country. INDONESIA Win-Win Trade Globalization, trade, and foreign direct investment have all been and will be, a massive part of Indonesia s economic development plan. As protectionism and populism shake Western economies, Indonesia is still making solid strides towards an interconnected world. April 17th through the 23rd was a cringe worthy time for policymakers in Indonesia because the World Bank IMF Spring Meetings were held in Washington, DC. Topics that were examined and discussed were commodity prices, rising poverty, and inequality, all of which are prevalent in Indonesia. Indonesia s Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati was in attendance and took part in meetings pertaining to infrastructure development, tax evasion, and money laundering. These Spring Meetings fall at a pivotal time for Indonesia as first-quarter data has recently been released. Indonesia currently boasts a trade surplus of USD $3.9 billion and an export total of $40.61 billion; this is 20.84 percent higher than Q1 in 2016. It is evident how trade is the foundation and bedrock to this vibrant economy. At the conclusion of US Vice President Mike Pence s visit to Indonesia, a win-win bilateral trade agreement may be plausible if Indonesia works on intellectual property rights, lack of transparency, and Rules of Origin. The month of April has provided Indonesia a transparent way forward. 2 ASEANMonitor
LAOS Pi Mai Lao: Traditional Celebrations The Lao New Year or Pi Mai Lao is one of the biggest festivals in Laos, which is held annually in April. Officially three days celebrations, however, may last more than a week in towns such as Luang Parabang. Marking the beginning of the New Year, Pi Mai Lao has also become synonymous with the reinforcement of family bonds, celebration of the Lao identity, and an opportunity to reflect on the year ahead. It is the occasion where Buddha images are washed (to signify cleansing), temples repainted and homes cleaned. Revolving around family and faith, renewal and revelry, Pi Mai Lao also provides the opportunity for the young to pour water on the hands of their elders and ask for their blessings in the year ahead. The blessing with water among family and friends as well as strangers continues throughout the festival. Traditionally, Laotians wish someone sok di pi mai (Happy New Year) before pouring water over their heads. For tourists, Pi Mai Lao is at its most festive in the heritage city of Luang Prabang where past celebrations have lasted for as long as three weeks covered with parades of traditional Lao costumes, music and dance, boat races on the Mekong River, and even a beauty pageant. MALAYSIA Policy Could Malaysia Benefit from a Trump Protectionism Move? Malaysia, together with a host of ASEAN countries including Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, stand to somehow gain if the US imposes tariffs on the top five imports from countries with which the US has high trade deficits (i.e. China, Mexico, Japan and Germany). The Standard Chartered report Global Trade: Trade First (avoiding an own goal) identifies Mexico and China as the biggest competitors on a wide variety of products imported by the US, and sees some US protectionism measures to likely be imposed against both countries. Against this backdrop, the above-mentioned ASEAN countries as well as Korea and Taiwan might benefit by intensifying direct supply of those products. Malaysia in particular can benefit from increasing its supplies to the US of these major products that are also imported by the US from China, Mexico, Japan and Germany, namely telecommunication equipment, apparatus and appliances, electrical machinery, and office machines and automatic data processing equipment. However, it is not all good news for Malaysia, which could be disadvantaged as it supplies intermediate products to the potentially targeted countries with which the US has high trade deficit. On balance though, Malaysia and the rest of ASEAN would be hoping for the US to once again champion free trade as protectionism by the world s largest importer is likely to pose a major threat to the recovery of global growth since the financial crisis of 2008. MYANMAR Thingyan and the Soft Power of Eco-Tourism Myanmar experienced extreme heat throughout April s many festivities and holidays. As Thingyan was observed in the middle of the month, citizens of Myanmar celebrated the Buddhist holiday as well as the end of the school year for children in several ways. This year, in particular, a new type of tourism is sweeping throughout the countryside as families pack their cars and travel. Eco-tourism is continually growing with local Burmese. From touring palm oil plantations to national parks, timber forests as well as rich jade and mineral landmarks, Myanmar is exploiting their natural resources in innovative ways. The country has roughly 7,000 different plants and tree species, 300 unique mammals, 360 reptiles, as well as 1,000 bird species. 3 ASEANMonitor
As the economy grows, consumer spending does too. New ways to utilize time outside with family is becoming popular. Because of the rich diversity of ethnic groups, topography, and even ways of life, families are now exploring and learning more about their country all the while demystifying Myanmar. As Earth Day was broadcasted through a number of channels of eco-tourism, scientists as well as activists are using the heat as an example of how climate change has impacted life in the CLMVT region, as well as the environment and animal kingdom respectively. Eco-tourism can help preserve what natural wonders are left and assist locals to understand the impact of unsustainable lifestyles in their country. PHILIPPINES To Be or Not to Be: Embracing English Language Day Since 2010, English Language Day is celebrated on 23rd April, the date traditionally observed as both the birthday and date of death of William Shakespeare. The United Nations purpose for establishing the language day was to celebrate multilingualism and cultural diversity, but for many around the world, it is also about the struggles to learn and expand their lexicon and the cultural implications that come with studying a foreign language. English is the official language of ASEAN, but the region suffers from a low level of English proficiency. While many ASEAN countries are underperforming as far as command of the English language is concerned, the Philippines on the other hand has always enjoyed a competitive advantage in this area. Stretching across the islands, English language literacy rate is roughly 94 percent with 70 percent of the population fluent in the language. Filipinos continually expand their language-learning abilities not only in school settings but also on the Internet (the young Filipinos already top the world on mobile text messages and social media usage). On the occasion of English Language Day, it is safe to say that Filipinos are moving in the right direction as far as developing skills for ASEAN s official language, as well as the future of jobs, are concerned. SINGAPORE The World s Most Expensive City? The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) runs an annual survey since 2014 measuring the cost of living worldwide. The EIU Cost of Living Index compares prices of 160 goods and services in 133 cities around the world and the 2016 survey has found Asian cities as the world s priciest with Singapore, Hong Kong, Tokyo, Osaka and Seoul occupying five of the top six positions. While Singapore can surely be an expensive city, there are limitations to the EIU index such as premiumization that brings the survey ranking into question. More importantly the index is primarily used by human resources managers to calculate compensation packages for overseas postings and includes a basket of goods such as filet mignon, imported cheese and three-course high-end dinners. To highlight an alternative reality, the National University of Singapore s Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) has made their own index, which distinguishes between expats and locals. The NUS index has found that EIU Cost of Living Index 1 Singapore 2 Hong Kong 3 Zurich 4 Tokyo 5 Osaka 6 Seoul 7 = Geneva 7 = Paris 9 = New York 9 = Copenhagen 11 Los Angeles ACI Cost of Living Index 1 Sydney 2 Zurich 3 Oslo 4 Melbourne 5 New York 6 Geneva 7 Brisbane 8 Copenhagen 9 Perth 10 Paris 48 Singapore Source: Economist Intelligence Unit (2017); National University of Singapore (2015); C asean analysis. for the ordinary residents, Singapore was in fact the 48th priciest city in the world a far cry from the tag of the world s most expensive city. So should you not spend money like a banker, Singapore can actually be a reasonably priced city. ASEANMonitor 4
THAILAND Dark Side of the World s Biggest Water Fight Songkran festival is celebrated in mid-april each year throughout Thailand. To mark the traditional Thai New Year, Thais across the country visit their local temples and offer food to Buddhist monks. While Buddha statues are gently bathed with water and elders are shown respect by having water poured over their hands, many locals and foreign visitors participate in what has evolved to be the world s biggest water fight. The occasion provides for a grand celebration and is a major tourism draw, boosting the Thai economy as witnessed by this year s total spending of around $1.3 billion during the Songkran 2017 holiday This represents around a 15 percent increase over the same period last year according to the Ministry of Tourism and Sports. However, leaving the economic impact aside, it is important to underline the darker side of the celebrations, which causes thousands of road accidents and assaults. This year alone, there were a total of 390 deaths from road accidents that the Thai Interior Ministry has chiefly attributed to drunk driving during the period of 11-17 April. While the occasion demands proper celebrations by locals and tourists alike, there is a greater incentive for all parties involved to stress the significance of responsible and sustainable celebrations during the festive period of Songkran. VIETNAM US-Vietnam Relations: Dead or Alive? The United States has officially opted out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership in favor of what US President Trump has called fair bilateral trade agreements with countries that qualify. Given the significance of the TPP to the Vietnamese economy, the country still has not offered any firm position with regards to the future of the TPP, adopting an attitude that the trade agreement is both alive and dead. However, steps have been taken to enhance US-Vietnam relations. Vietnamese Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc has recently stated his willingness to visit the US to promote ties between the two countries. US President Donald Trump has meanwhile officially invited Vietnam s Prime Minister to visit the US as well as indicated his plans to attend the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit in Vietnam in November. Given the strong trade ties between the two countries, strengthening of relations is in the interest of both Vietnam and the US. Policy AROUND ASEAN AUSTRALIA The Costs of LNG Export Dependency It is not acceptable for Australia to be the world s largest exporter of LNG and yet to have a gas shortage on the east coast in its domestic market, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull quoted to energy producers in mid-april. This supply squeeze of selling Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) domestically because companies are solely focusing on exporting to Asian economies has led to wholesale gas prices tripling in the last two years. Australia hosts some of the world s largest reserves of fossil fuels. However, the country is running low because it exports twice as much as it uses domestically. Royal Dutch Shell and Australia s Origins and Santos are locked into 20-year contracts with Asian economies for export of these gasses, to Japan in particular. With detrimental environment implications, fracking gas from shale rock has become illegal in several provinces, which is not aiding in the rising prices coast-to-coast in Australia. The Prime Minister is exercising options for making electricity cheaper by investing in hydroelectric power, speaking directly with Tesla CEO Elon Musk, with regards to creating a gigafactory, which will be the world s largest battery storage facility, and boosting investment in solar and wind power mechanisms. These long-term infrastructure plans and investments will be prosperous, but for the near future, a clear solution has not yet been proposed. 5 ASEANMonitor
CHINA What of Sino-US Relations? Policy In early April, President Xi Jinping and President Trump met together in person for the first time in Trump s presidency. The two leaders along with senior advisors discussed China-US relations pertaining to bilateral trade and economic collaboration, North Korea, and maritime issues in the East and South China Seas. These meetings provided an opportunity for both commandersin-chief to present their concerns, way forward, and establish a solid working relationship. Having this meeting take place within the first 100 days of Trump s presidency will be a key foundation to his policies in the future towards China. Confrontational instincts have diminished after this meeting, which works well for the relationship and all parties included. However, the trade deficit of $347 billion is still a major concern to the United States. It has yet to be seen how these two governments will tackle the issues at hand including job loss in the US because of this deficit, trade barriers, and the currency rate of the Chinese Renminbi or Yuan. A friendlier and more collaborative approach seems to be on the horizon for the framework in which tackling the trade deficit, in the perspective of the US, will be taken care of. President Xi spoke at Davos 2017 saying no one will emerge as a winner in a trade war which has helped mold the ever-growing alliance both economically, but also politically between China and the United States. Furthermore, the Treasury Department has not labeled China a currency manipulator and during their meetings in Florida, it was discussed that if China helps the US with North Korea, a favorable trade deal with Beijing will be cut. The United States broad strategy towards Asia seems to be taking form with China at the head of the skeleton. NEW ZEALAND Increasing Global Wine Presence Kiwi wine is becoming world-renowned as a direct competitor to not only the country s neighbor, Australia, but also to the rose, reds, and whites from Argentina, France, and Italy. The value of New Zealand wine shipped to the US surged 11 percent last year to roughly $400 million, while the volume to the U.S. rose 14 percent to 7.3 million cases. This diversifies the country s exports thus diminishing the stress of relying heavily on popular products of the dairy and meat sectors. As intra-asean trade grows bilaterally and multilaterally, collaboration, partnerships, and distribution and supply chain management opportunities in other ASEAN countries are on the radar for wine companies. New Zealand sees China as a lucrative market that needs more attention; they are the fourth largest wine consuming country in the world. While millennials are becoming accustomed to rising incomes, consumption levels that allow spending, and are keen to branded luxury items, New Zealand wine companies are flocking to gain a stake in this market. The average French wine in Asia is 38 percent higher in price compared to New Zealand s. There are tremendous opportunities to flourish in a niche Asian market in 2017 onwards. SOUTH KOREA Cashless Technology Customers at selected convenient stores may now opt out of getting coins and small change back from purchases in Seoul. The country has successfully implemented the option of exchanging these coins for a prepaid card that will allow access for usage on transportation like taxis and trains throughout the city. If users give positive feedback to this function, the Bank of Korea will grant an updated version of direct deposit change to each savings account within a year. This transition comes at a disruptive time with the likes of FinTech exploding, Bitcoin continuously improving, as well as Blockchain Technology being dominant in the foreseeable future. While the main disrupter in this shift of distributed cards instead of coins is due in large to the production costs of coins versus the actual value, South Korea is taking a strong and innovative step towards future electronic currency. Bitcoin and Blockchain Technology are two major discussion points at the upcoming Group of Twenty (G20) summit in July 2017. The coinless society in South Korea marks another incredible technological advancement that may further lead to a cashless society in years to come. Reliability, cyber security, and trust all act as major challenges that first need improvement in order to successfully implement this system. ASEANMonitor 6
ASEAN IN NUMBERS ASEAN accounts for 10% of total global road traffic deaths There were approximately 117,000 road traffic deaths in ASEAN in 2015, accounting for approximately 10 percent of world traffic deaths. Per 100,000 population, the region s road traffic fatality rate stands at 17.0, slightly below the global rate of 17.4. However, there is substantial variation within ASEAN, ranging from a low of 3.6 in Singapore to an alarming 36.2 in Thailand. 12% 3% 15% 22% Deaths by road user types 48% Road Traffic Fatalities (per 100,000 population) 10.5 14.3 15.3 17.4 17.4 20.3 24.0 24.5 36.2 3.6 Motorcyclists Cyclists Car users Other/unspecified Pedestrians Singapore Philippines Laos Indonesia Global average Cambodia Myanmar Malaysia Vietnam Thailand Road traffic deaths among the vulnerable are intolerably high Vulnerable road users (pedestrians, cyclists, and motorcyclists) make up over 60% of all road traffic deaths in ASEAN. Source: WHO; C asean analysis. Note: Data for ASEAN reflects the average for nine ASEAN member states (no data available for Brunei). 7 ASEANMonitor
ASEAN Monitor is a monthly report providing analysis of the top stories from and around ASEAN that impacts the region the most. 10th Floor, CW Tower, 90 Ratchadapisek Road, Huai Khwang, Bangkok Thailand 10310 T. +66 (02) 785 9999 F. +66 (02) 785 9990 www.c-asean.org Project Leader: Contributor: Designer: Sid Sala Spencer Giorgio Seni Chunhacha Advisors: Karndee Leopairote, Ph.D. Poomporn Thamsatitdej, Ph.D. Surathin Sathitlert Subscribe to ASEAN Monitor: AskMe@c-asean.org AskMeCasean Casean C_asean C_asean DISCLAIMER: This publication is for the recipient s information only. The information and data presented are extracted and analyzed from various credible sources believed to be reliable. Should any information be doubtful, readers are advised to make their own independent evaluation of such information.