Electoral College Reform: Evaluation and Policy Recommendations Albert Qian, Alex Hider, Amanda Khan, Caroline Reisch, Madeline Goossen, and Araksya Nordikyan
Research Question What are alternative ways to allocate votes in the Unites States, and which of these systems is best for California?
The Electoral College: An Introduction Albert Qian
Background & Summary Enacted during the Constitutional Convention of 787 to reconcile differing state and federal interests, giving leverage to less populous states while preserving the popular vote in the election The electors are chosen by the states in such Manner as the Legislature may thereof direct (U.S. Constitution, Article II, Section ) Source: (History.com)
Background & Summary cont. The constitution gives each state a number of electors equal to its Senate membership ( per state) and House of Representatives delegation (ranging from to ) The rd amendment gives electors to the District of Columbia as well Source: (History.com)
How it Works
California s System California has the largest amount of electors of any state, On or before October st of the presidential election year, each party s nominee must submit a list of the electors pledges to him/her, with each party having their own method of selecting electors (California Secretary of State)
California s System cont. For the Democratic party, each congressional nominee and each US senate nominee designates one elector California operates on a winner-take-all system, with all electoral votes going towards the candidate with the majority of the popular vote in the state (California Secretary of State)
Proportional Representation Alex Hider
How it Works
Current Usage Democratic Primaries Party requires all states to use Proportional Representation % threshold % of votes are decided at-large The remainder are decided by district
Current Usage Republican Primaries States choose how to divide their delegates, but must use proportional if their primary is before March th Maximum 0% threshold, some use smaller 0 base electors plus any bonus electors are decided at large delegates per congressional district can be decided by district or based on the statewide vote
Benefits Reduces the disparity between the popular vote and the share of electors Fewer wasted votes Encourages political parties to campaign everywhere Drawbacks In general election could lead to a president winning with a very small percentage of the vote Provides a route for extremists Can prevent winnowing
Implementation Primaries General Election State-by-state Colorado tried in 00 with a ballot initiative, lost.7% to 6.% Main argument against it was that it takes away Colorado s power, would usually be split - so no candidates would focus on Colorado
Congressional Districts Model Amanda Khan
How it Works
Current Usage
Benefits Simple implementation More representative Higher voter turnout Accurate geographic representation of country Not a drastic change Gives Independents more of a chance Doesn t strip states of power Drawbacks Can heighten disparity between popular and electoral vote Seemingly Republican bias Gerrymandering
Gerrymandering Gill v. Whitford (pending) Current SCOTUS case striving to fix the inequalities of gerrymandering
Starting Point Consider changing how district lines are drawn in nationwide Congressional district voting would need to start in a swing state rather than CA
Ranked Choice Voting Caroline Reisch
How it Works
RCV Usage
Benefits Saves money Eliminates primary & runoff elections Turnout issues Stronger voices Better candidate choices More positive campaigns Eliminates spoiler effect Accountable leaders Broadens participation Source: FairVote
Empirical Support: Four Bay Area Cities Higher Voter Satisfaction Less Candidate Criticism Less Negativity High Voter Understanding Overall Support 6
Source: FairVote 7
Drawbacks Administrative Burdens Financial costs Implementation Time Confusing to Voters Example of Portland, Maine 8
Implementation - North Carolina in 00
California & Beyond Source: Phone call with Madeline, Research Fellow at FairVote 0
Remapping the Electoral College Madeline Goossen
Methodology Using data from the past presidential elections and reallocating votes using the proportional model Focus on main candidates, but all electoral votes are considered
Elections from 960-97 960 968 Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New Kennedy 9.7% 0 70 Nixon.% 0 Nixon 9.% 9 6 Humphrey.7% 9 Other 0.7% 6 Other.86% 6 79 EC New 96 97 Name PV % EC New Name PV % Johnson 6.0% 86 0 Nixon 60.67% 0 Goldwater 8.7% McGovern 7.% 7 0 Other 0.8% 0 Other.8%
Elections from 976-988 976 98 Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New Carter 0.08% 97 7 Reagan 8.77% Ford 8.0% 0 6 Mondale 0.6% 7 Other.9% Other 0.67% 0 0 980 988 Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New Reagan 0.7% 89 80 Bush.7% 6 9 Carter.0% 9 Dukakis.6% Other 8.% 0 Other 0.98%
Case Study: Election of 968 0 0 7 6 8 8 7 9 0 9 8 9 6 9
Case Study: Election of 980 7 9 8 0 6 7 9 7 6 9 7 7 7 9 7 0 6
Remapping the Electoral College Continued Araksya Nordikyan
Elections from 99-00 99 996 Name PV % EC New Name PV % Clinton.0% 70 Clinton 9.% 79 6 Bush 7.% 68 0 Dole 0.7% 9 Other 9.% 0 06 Other 0.0% 0 0 000 EC New 00 Name PV % EC New Name PV % EC New W. Bush 7.87% 7 6 W. Bush 0.7% 86 7 Gore 8.8% 66 8 Kerry 8.6% 8 Other.7% 6 Other.0% 8
Elections from 008-06 008 Name PV % Obama McCain Other 0 New Name PV % EC New.86% 0 88 Obama.0% 7.60% 7 0 Romney 7.% 06 9 Other.8% 0 7.% EC 0 0 06 Name PV % EC Trump.9% 0 Clinton 8.0% 7 6 Other 6.0% 7 New
Case Study: Election of 99 8 7 8 0 0 6 6 6 6 6 0 6 0 6 88 8 7 8 6
Case Study: Election of 06 7 8 6 9 6 9 8 8 7 7 0 6 6 6 9 0 8 6 6 7 7 8 0 8 6
Remapping Evaluation Problems Rounding to whole numbers can skew results Candidates can fail to reach 70 - requires reworking of current system Benefits Elections more closely resemble popular vote percentages Proportional model allows for viable third party candidates Increases competitiveness of elections
Public Opinion Survey Albert Qian
Survey Demographics What is their age? What is their ethnicity? What is their education level? What is their average household income?
Average Household Income
Survey Questions Focused on determining the knowledge surveyors already had of the Electoral College Wanted to determine their opinions on alternative methods
Policy Recommendations. Restructure system of drawing district lines. Ranked Choice Voting should be used for local and state elections nationwide. Implement Proportional Representation in the General Election a. Utilize in Primary contests b. Republican Party either should require this, or each state should switch to this method c. Start with a coalition of swing states: Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina d. If no one reaches 70, whoever garners the most electoral votes wins