A Poll of Registered Voters on Guam Regarding the 2018 Election for Governor, Government Operations and Issues Purpose: Community Perspective In 2018 the people of Guam will vote for a new governor to lead our island and address social and economic issue that are of concern to the people of Guam. A poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 6, 2017 to measure the position of a representative sample of registered voters on Guam regarding, government operations, social issues and their choice for governor. The poll also includes; reasons, demographic information and statistical data regarding local resident s position on the aforementioned issue. This survey was conducted by the government students in conjunction, with the math department at Simon Sanchez High School. Sample/Method: Registered Voters 18 and Over on Guam A systematic sample of survey participants were gathered from local Guam phonebooks. EXAMPLE: Students were asked to randomly select a letter from the phonebook. They were then instructed to select every 25 th number in the phonebook from their designated letter. After a phone number has been selected they were to add a number so the name, village etc. would be concealed. 555-1234 would be changed to 555-1235, preserving the identity of the respondent and the validity of the sample. Only students in the government classes and the AP math class were allowed to conduct the phone interviews. Each student was educated on the polling process, given a prepared script and questions where formulated by the teachers and students of the participating classes. (see attached script and questions) Total People Polled: N=957 On the 1 st question: 18 and a registered voter on Guam Of the (N=957) participants in the survey, 100% reported they were over the age of 18 and a registered voter on Guam. On the 2 nd question: Gender Of the N=957 people polled 415 or 44% of respondents were male and 542 or 56% were female.
On the results of question 3: Age A. 18-35 =289 or 30.2% B. 36-55 =392 or 41% C. 56-Over = 276 or 28.8% Ages 18-35 36-55 56 and over 28.8% 30.2% 41.0%
On the results of question 4: Ethnicity CHAMORRO=397 or 41.5% FILIPINO= 341 or 35.6% OTHER= 219 or 22.9% Ethnicity Chamorro Filipino Other 22.9% 41.5% 35.6%
On question 5: What issue are you most concerned about? Of the N=957 people polled, 287 or 30% said, education was the top issue of concern for them, while 192 or 20.1% reported crime being an issue of concern. The hospital was a concern for 142 or 14.8% of the people polled, followed by government borrowing at 127 or 13.3%. Road improvements came in next with 117 or 12.2% and the AAFB live fire range was the least concerning for Guam voters at 92 or 9.6%. Most Concerning Issue Road Improvements ; 12.2% Crime ; 20.1% Education; 30.0% Government Borrowing ; 13.3% The Hospital; 14.8% The live fire range at AAFB; 9.6%
On question 6: What do you think elected officials should do to improve government operations? Of the N=957 people polled 309 or 32.3% said, creating jobs would improve government operations. 266 or 27.8% said, the government should stop borrowing money and 211 or 22% said using technology would improve government operations. Just 171 or 17.9% believe reducing the size of government would improve operations. Elected Officials Should Do To Improve Government Stop Borrowing Money 27.8% Use technology to modernize efficiency 22.0% Create Jobs 32.3% Reduce the size of government 17.9% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
On question 7: Would you be willing to pay more in taxes for universal health care for all Guam residents? Of the N=957 people polled 498 or 52% said No, while 459 or 48% said, yes they would be willing to pay more in taxes for universal healthcare. On question 8: Which aspect do you feel is the least important when selecting a candidate? Of the N=957 people polled 359 or 37.5% reported family relations as being the least important when selecting a candidate. Party affiliation followed next with 224 or 23.4% of respondents indicating it was the least important. 220 or 23% of respondents said, advertising was not important while, 154 or 16.1% said pocket meetings were unimportant. Least Important Aspect When Slecting A Candidate Pocket-Meetings 16.1% Advertising 23.0% Family Relations 37.5% Party Affiliation 23.4% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
On question 9: If the election for governor were held today who would you vote for? Of the N=957 registered voters polled 322 or 33.6% reported being undecided on who they would vote for next year. 190 or 19.9% said they would vote Frank Aguon in as the next governor while, 187 or 19.5% said, they would vote for Ray Tenorio. 132 or 13.8% of respondents said they would vote for Lou Leon Guerrero as the next governor and 126 or 13.2% will cast a vote for Carl Gutierrez. Voting For Governor If Election Were Held Today Undecided 33.6% Frank Aguon Jr. 19.9% Ray Tenorio 19.5% Lou Leon Guerrero 13.8% Carl Gutierrez 13.2% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0%
Conclusion A poll was conducted from Oct. 23 to Nov. 6, 2017 to measure the position of registered voters on Guam regarding, government operations, social issues and their choice for governor. The poll also includes; reasons, demographic information and statistical data regarding local resident s position on the aforementioned issue. This survey was conducted by the government students in conjunction, with the math department at Simon Sanchez High School. Although not a scientific poll, several methods were used to increase the validity of the survey (please see sample/method). A script was strictly followed and deviation from the assigned questions was prohibited. Also the sample size, (N=957) was large enough to accurately represent the universe of residents on Guam +-2.94% based on 150,000 residents. All data collected was turned-over to the math department for analysis. It is understood, that polls are a glimpse of the public s sentiment on a particular issue, at a particular point in time but, some interesting hypotheses can be supported from the results. A. Education and crime continue to be the top issues of concern for many in the community. B. The government must improve operations by creating jobs for the people to increase its tax base and it must stop borrowing money. C. Candidates must recognize that family relations and party affiliation are not an aspect voters consider when casting a vote for public office. D. Although early, with the election being a year away, a majority of registered voters on Guam are undecided about who should be the next Governor of Guam. There is no clear front runner at this time but analysis indicates a favorable outcome for Frank Aguon Jr. over Ray Tenorio by a razor-thin margin. Due to time limitations, other group demographic information could not be analyzed for this report. Calculation results of the N=957 have been included in this reports appendix section for additional demographic analysis. Example: Filipino and Chamorro opinions based on age regarding issues presented can be analyzed.
1. Are you 18 or older and a registered voter of Guam? (If yes, proceed to next question. If NO, say thank you for your participation this concludes our survey.) YES N=957 2. Male N=415 Female N=542 3. Are you between the ages of 18-35 N=289 36-55 N=392 56 and over N=276 4. What is your ethnicity? Chamorro N=397 Filipino N=341 Other N=219 5. What issue are you most concerned about? A. Education N=287 B. The live fire range at AAFB N=92 C. The Hospital N=142 D. Government Borrowing N=127 E. Road Improvements N=117 F. Crime N=192 6. What do you think elected officials should do to improve government operations? A. Reduce the size of government N=171 B. Create Jobs N=309 C. Use technology to modernize efficiency N=211 D. Stop Borrowing Money N=266 7. Would you be willing to pay more in taxes for universal health care for all Guam residents? YES N=459 NO N=498 8. Which aspect do you feel is the least important when selecting a candidate A. Party Affiliation N=224 B. Family Relations N=359 C. Advertising N=220 D. Pocket-Meetings N=154
9. If the election for governor were held today who would you vote for A. Carl Gutierrez N=126 B. Lou Leon Guerrero N=132 C. Ray Tenorio N=187 D. Frank Aguon Jr. N=190 E. Undecided N=322
Survey Questions 1. Are you 18 or older and a registered voter of Guam? (If yes, proceed to next question. If NO, say thank you for your participation this concludes our survey.) YES 2. Male/Female 3. Are you between the ages of 18-35 36-55 56 and over 4. What is your ethnicity? Chamorro Filipino Other 5. What issue are you most concerned about? G. Education H. The live fire range at AAFB I. The Hospital J. Government Borrowing K. Road Improvements L. Crime 6. What do you think elected officials should do to improve government operations? E. Reduce the size of government F. Create Jobs G. Use technology to modernize efficiency H. Stop Borrowing Money 7. Would you be willing to pay more in taxes for universal health care for all Guam residents? YES/NO 8. Which aspect do you feel is the least important when selecting a candidate E. Party Affiliation F. Family Relations G. Advertising H. Pocket-Meetings 9. If the election for governor were held today who would you vote for F. Carl Gutierrez G. Lou Leon Guerrero H. Ray Tenorio I. Frank Aguon Jr. J. Undecided
REMEMBER: Stick to the script!!!! Good evening sir/ma am my name is. I am a student at SSHS and we are conducting a survey as part of my government/math class. Do you have 5 minutes to answer a few questions about our government? No phone numbers or identifying information will be used in the administration or publication of this survey. (If yes, say thank you and proceed to first question. If no, ask if you can call them back at a later time. Write the number and time for call back) This is the first question.