Monitoring social and geopolitical events with Big Data Boston University Alumni Club of Spain Tomasa Rodrigo April 2018
Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data Index 01 Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research 02 Monitoring geopolitical and social events
01 Opportunities in the digital era. Big Data at BBVA Research Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data
Traditional data could not answer some relevant questions Social awareness and the Arab Spring Political events and social reaction Natural disasters and epidemics preventing us to measure their economic impact in a world with increasing risks and uncertainty The use of Big Data and Data science techniques allows us to quantify these trends 4
New framework in the digital era Novel data-driven computational approaches are needed to exploit the new opportunities in the new digital era where data can be used to study the world in real time, both at micro or macro level New data availability Combination of historical data with real time data Better and faster infrastructure Advanced data science techniques and algorithms New answers to old questions Higher computational abilities to face more data granularity 5
which needs the development of new competences to take advantage of it Making the right Developing the Deepening the Interpreting the questions data management statistical and results: and programming econometric summarize, capabilities to work skills to analyze describe and with large-scale and deal with analyze the datasets high-dimensional information data New data may end up changing the way in which economists approach empirical questions and the tools they use to answer them 6
Big Data at BBVA Research Our work We analyze geopolitical, political, social and economic issues using large- scale databases and quantitative data-driven methods rather than just qualitative introspection Our datasets Media data to exploit news intensity, geographic density of events (location intelligence) and emotions across the world (sentiment analysis) BBVA aggregate and anonymized data from clients digital footprint Data from the web (Central Banks reports among others) Our results We are at the research frontier in the geopolitical and economic area contributing to the innovation and increasing our internal and external reach 7
02 Monitoring geopolitical and social events Monitoring economic, social and geopolitical events with Big Data
External databases: GDELT Global Database on Events Location and Tone Open database of human society from every corner of the globe dating back to 1979 including over 300 events around the world and more than 30000 themes georeferenced across the entire planet and collecting emotions using some of the most sophisticated algorithms (More information can be found in the annex) 9
Tracking Geopolitics on real time is useful to identify the main hot spots and potential spillovers Conflict Intensity Map 2017-18 (Number of conflicts/ Total events) Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 10
ATAM N. Africa & Middle East EM Europe & CIS Developed Markets Monitoring economic, social Big Data and geopolitical & Big Models events at BBVA with Research Big Data getting the historical perspective, main hot spots and contagion effects BBVA Research World Protest and Conflict Intensity Index 1979-2018 Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research Protests Conflict USA UK Norway Sweden Austria Germany France Netherlands Italy Spain Belgium Ireland Portugal Greece Poland Czech Republic Hungary Bulgaria Romania Croatia Turkey Russia Ukraine Georgia Kazakhstan Moldova Azerbaijan Armenia Morocco Algeria Tunisia Libya Egypt Israel Jordan Syria Iraq Iran UAE Bahrain Qatar Oman Saudi Arabia Mexico Brazil Chile Colombia Peru World Protest Intensity Map 1979-2017 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11
Instability in the MENA region had an important spill over effect: the refugee crisis ISIS presence in the Middle East and the neighborhood in 2016 (Number of news referring to ISIS presence / Total events) BBVA Research Refugees Flows Map in 2015-18 (Number of media citations about refugees inflows orangeand outflows red) Europe Attacks in Europe revived fears and threats, as well as nationalist claims. Caucasus ISIS expanded to the North Caucasus as part of its wider international strategy. Afghanistan ISIS presence in Afghanistan was also important. North Africa ISIS stronghold in Libya and its expansion around the neighborhood deteriorated the already critical situation. Middle East Despite some ISIS setbacks in Syria and Iraq thanks to the International Coalition, threats and risks remained. Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 12
Understanding the refugees transit corridors through the media and high frequency data Country network on refugees: media coverage (Edges thickness reflect how often each pair of countries were mentioned together. Nodes size show the centrality. Clusters capture the potential transit corridors. Turkey, Italy and Greece appear as central hubs for refugees crossing the Mediterranean, before they transit to other European countries. Syria has become the world s largest driver of migration in recent years. The neighboring countries like Iran and Lebanon have also host a significant number of refugees. Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 13
Feb-15 May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17 Feb-18 Monitoring economic, social Big Data and geopolitical & Big Models events at BBVA with Research Big Data The refugee crisis has awakened interest in the world media, specially in some regions Refugees in the media: worldcloud of main commented topics together with refugee Refugees in the media: media coverage of refugees by region 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 Europe Asia America Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research 14
Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Monitoring economic, social Big Data and geopolitical & Big Models events at BBVA with Research Big Data This situation led to the EU & Turkey deal on refugees to reduce the number of refugees that goes to Europe Daily and Weekly Average Refugee Arrivals to Greece (UNHCR estimates) Media sentiment on Turkey European Union relationship (Lower values indicate a deterioration of Turkey-EU relations) 12,000 10,000 Refugee Deal 1 0 Refugee Deal 8,000-1 -2 6,000-3 4,000-4 2,000-5 0-6 Daily Weekly Source: BBVA Research and UNHCR Source: www.gdelt.org & BBVA Research
Economic effects of the refugee inflows in Europe MACROECONOMIC IMPACT POLICY RESPONSE Short term Increase of aggregate demand High uncertainty and heterogeneous effects depending on the country Fiscal expansion Medium - Long term Labour market GDP A comprehensive policy response and a long-term strategy is necessary to turn into positive the macroeconomic effects in the medium to long term. Fiscal sustainability 16
You can find us at: bbvaresearch.com bbva-research Tomasa Rodrigo @BBVAResearch @TomasaRodrigo Thank you!
Monitoring social and geopolitical events with Big Data Boston University Alumni Club of Spain Tomasa Rodrigo April 2018