Immigrant Economic Contributions to the United States David Dyssegaard Kallick Director of Immigration Research Fiscal Policy Institute ddkallick@fiscalpolicy.org
Millions Immigration 1850 to Today 350 16% 15% 323 million 300 250 200 150 100 50 10% 23 million 92 million 13.5% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of Census and American Community Survey (ACS) data. 0 1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2015 2016 0%
Unauthorized Population Highest in 2007 Lower in 2015 than in 2009 Steady since about 2009 In millions In millions 1990 1995 2000 2007 2009 2015 2016 Source: Pew Research Center, Jeffrey S. Passel and D Vera Cohn, As Mexican Share Declined, U.S. Unauthorized Immigrant Population Fell in 2015 Below Recession Level, April 25, 2017. Shading shows 90 percent confidence interval.
Immigration to America is More Diverse than Most People Realize Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) 2015. Asian, 27% U.S.-Born 84% White, 18% Hispanic/ Latino, 45% Black, 8%
A Big Part of America s Economy Relies on Immigrants Immigrants 16% U.S.-Born 84% Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) 2015. Share of GDP is gauged by share of total wage and salary earnings plus proprietor s income.
How Can Immigrant Share of GDP Be that Big?
1. Immigrants Are Young Adults Immigrant share of Population 13% Working-Age Population 17% Labor Force 17% Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of American Community Survey (ACS) 2015.
Management, Business, Science, and Arts Business Operations Specialists Financial Specialists Computer and Mathematical Computer and Mathematical Architecture and Engineering Archit ecture and Engineering Life, Physical and Soc. Science Life, Physical, and Social Science Community and Social Services Legal Occupations Education, Training, and Library Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Healthcare Support Healthcare Support Protective Service Food Prep and Serving Food Preparation and Serving Building & Grounds Maint. Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Personal Personal Care Care & and Service Sales and Related Office and Administrat ive Support Farming Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Construction Construction Extraction Installation, Ma intenance, and Repair Production Transportation and Material Moving 2. Immigrants Work in Jobs Across the Spectrum of Occupations 13% 11% 15% 23% 18% 21% Immigrant Share of Labor Force 17% 10% 8% 11% 13% 15% 18% 7% 20% 31% 19% 13% 11% 42% 24% 10% 14% 21% 17% Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of 2015 ACS.
3. Immigrants Are Entrepreneurial Immigrant share of 13% Population 17% Labor Force 19% Business Owners 30% Main Street Business Owners Source: FPI analysis of 2015 ACS. Analysis is updated from data in David Dyssegaard Kallick, Bringing Vitality to Main Street, Fiscal Policy Institute and Americas Society/Council of the Americas, 2015.
Main Street Businesses grocery stores restaurants Dry cleaners retail shops Beauty salons For detail, see Bringing Vitality to Main Street, Fiscal Policy Institute and Americas Society/Council of the Americas, 2015.
Different Economic Contexts Immigrant Share of Population by County Source: Pew Research Center, Facts on Immigrants, 2015, Percent Foreign-Born by County, 2015 ACS 5-year data, May 2017.
Cities with Declining Population 1960 to 1980 (29 of the 50 Largest Cities saw a mid-20 th Century population decline) St. Louis -40% Newark -19% Seattle -11% Cleveland -34% Buffalo -33% Pittsburgh -30% Detroit -28% Rochester -24% Louisville -24% Cincinnati -23% Minneapolis -23% Boston -19% Birmingham -17% Washington, DC -16% Baltimore -16% Philadelphia -16% Chicago -15% Milwaukee -14% St. Paul -14% Atlanta -13% Norfolk -13% New Orleans -11% New York City -9% San Francisco -8% Oakland -8% Kansas City -6% Portland, OR -2% Tampa -1% Denver -0.3% Source: Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of Census and ACS data.
Of the 29 Declining Cities, 14 Rebounded with an Increase in Population since 1980 Source: Fiscal Policy Institute Analysis of Census and ACS data. See Bringing Vitality to Main Street.
Here are the Cities that Rebounded with an Increase in the Immigrant Population 1,600,000 1980 to 2013 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 Immigrants U.S.-Born 0-200,000 Source: Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of Census and ACS data. See also Bringing Vitality to Main Street: How Immigrant Small Businesses Help Local Economies Grow, Fiscal Policy Institute and Americas Society/Council of the Americas, 2015.
Here are the Cities that Rebounded Without an Increase in Immigrant Population
There are none
Source: Fiscal Policy Institute analysis of Census and ACS data. There are none The only cities that rebounded from mid-20 th century population loss did so with a net increase in immigrant population. This doesn t prove that immigrants cause growth. It may also be that immigrants are drawn to growth. But it your city s plan is to grow without immigrants, it is useful to keep in mind that there are no examples of that among major cities in the United States over the past four decades.