Generic Pharmaceutical Association February 10, 2015 Bill McInturff SLIDE 1
We may finally be beginning to leave The Great Recession behind us.
In January 2015, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index hit its highest point since January 2004. The underlying fundamentals are very strong. More consumers spontaneously cited increases in their household incomes in early January than any time in the past decade. More households reported unprompted references to favorable employment prospects as well as lower prices than at any other time in more than the halfcentury history of the surveys. SLIDE 3
Title. Satisfaction with the economy hit its highest mark in years. 45% Satisfied January 2015 10% Satisfied January 2009 SLIDE 4
Higher economic confidence means the President Obama s job approval is trending upward toward 50%. Obama Job Approval Rasmussen 51% Gallup 50% ABC News/Wash Post 47% NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 46% Real Clear Politics Average (as of February 4, 2015) 46% SLIDE 5
President Obama s approval rating will be an important key to the 2016 presidential result. IF Presidential Approval Rating THEN Democrats Chance of Winning 41% 23% 46% 37% 50% 50% 6 SLIDE 6
Higher economic confidence and presidential approval does not cure the dysfunction in Washington. It does not fix the deep gap in ideology that underlies our partisan politics. SLIDE 7
Most Liberal Republican IDEOLOGICAL OVERLAP IN THE HOUSE Most Conservative Democrat 1982 DEM Caucus 344 Members GOP Caucus 1994 DEM Caucus 252 Members GOP Caucus 2002 DEM Caucus 137 Members GOP Caucus 2012 GOP Caucus DEM Caucus 13 2013 DEM Caucus RSC (Conservatives) 4 GOP Caucus National Journal analysis of voting records, 2013. SLIDE 8 4
Number of Congressional Seats 200 The swing Congressional seats are vanishing. 180 160 140 120 100 164 148 123 186 159 90 80 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Year 9 SLIDE 9
A significant majority of registered voters would vote to replace every single Member of Congress. % Vote to Replace Every Member of Congress Wave Election 45% (Oct. 2010) 2013 Government Shutdown (October 2013) 60% 2014 Election 55% (October 2014) 10 SLIDE 10
Healthcare & Prescription/Generic Drugs Bill McInturff SLIDE 11
Since the advent of Medicare Part D, the concern about the cost of prescription drugs has plummeted. How concerned are you that you won t be able to afford the cost of? % Concerned a great deal/quite a bit/a moderate amount Care for major surgery or life-threatening illness 45% Emergency room visits or urgent care 32% Keeping your health insurance 30% Prescription drugs 24% Regular doctor visits 21% SLIDE 12
It is impressive how much people say they understand about generic drugs Understanding of Generic Drugs %8-10 80% %5-7 11% %1-4 10% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 No Understanding Complete Understanding SLIDE 13
And the margin by which they say they would choose a generic over a prescription drug. How often do you choose a generic over a brand name drug? Always/Usually 77% Sometimes/Seldom 13% Never 11% SLIDE 14
The Sovaldi problem and how this impacts the public policy debate about prescription drugs. SLIDE 15
Why your advocacy matters. Percent of Current Members Who Were In Office for HOUSE Last Big Tax Reform SENATE HOUSE Last TPA Vote SENATE 3% 7% 26% 26% 1986 2002 Last Telecom Act Lehman Bros. Collapse 15% 15% 44% 46% 1996 2008 9/11 Attacks ACA Vote 26% 26% 52% 54% 2001 2010 SLIDE 16
Here s another perspective on the U.S. Congress and the state of our politics. Bill McInturff SLIDE 17
Punxsutawney Phil has an enviable favorable rating in Pennsylvania. Favorable 59% *Public Policy Polling Jan. 2015 SLIDE 18
Pennsylvania s choice for who they d like to see in the U.S. Congress. Would do better than most members of Congress: Yes No 50% 29% *Public Policy Polling Jan. 2015 SLIDE 19
Bill McInturff bill@pos.org Office: (703) 836-7655 SLIDE 20
Appendix Bill McInturff SLIDE 21
The Affordable Care Act Bill McInturff SLIDE 22
There continues to be stronger opposition to the health care law than support. Good Idea Bad Idea All Voters 36% 48% 8% 83% 33% 49% 61% 18% SLIDE 23
Intensity matters. Republicans have always been more intensely opposed than Democrats have been enthusiastic. Strongly Good Idea 48% Strongly Bad Idea 76% SLIDE 24
How Politics Might Drive Policy This Cycle Republicans vote to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, but of course it stays in effect through at least 2016. There will be a litany of votes by Republicans to fix the ACA. The rest of the Affordable Care Act, including the Employer Mandate, gets implemented and there will be a fuller assessment of whether the law is working or not. Additional states ask for Medicaid waivers, but movement towards increased coverage expansion continues. SLIDE 25
The Endless Campaign Bill McInturff SLIDE 26
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Democrats start with the big blue wall. electoral votes from 18 states + District of Columbia won by Democratic presidential candidate the last 6 elections in a row only need to win of the EVs in toss-up states. Clinton 1992 or 1996 States: AZ, AR, GA, KY, LA, MO, MT, TN, and WV SLIDE 28
Here s a snapshot of some of the front runners. Jeb Bush s father and his brother both served as president Hillary Clinton s husband served as president More Likely 9% Less Likely 34% More Likely 24% Less Likely 16% 29 SLIDE 29
Senator Clinton s Wild Ride 70% Jan. 2001 Becomes Secretary of State (HIGHEST FAVORABLE RATING) 60% 50% 40% 57% Jan. 1993 Bill Clinton inaugurated as 42 nd President 39% 44% Feb. 1999 Bill Clinton impeachment trial ends in acquittal 45% 54% Jan. 2001 Becomes U.S. Senator 49% 46% 59% 58% 45% 30% 20% 39% Sep. 1994 Hillarycare dies in Congress 35% 32% 29% 36% 39% 2008 Presidential Campaign 22% 28% 37% 10% 16% Jan. 1996 Subpoenaed in Whitewater investigation Jan. 1998 Lewinsky scandal breaks Sep. 2012 Attack in Benghazi, Libya 0% First Lady U.S. Senator Sec. of State Photo Credit: Reuters Positive Trend data from monthly NBC News/Wall Street Journal polling of American adults. Negative SLIDE 30
Republicans U.S. Senate control is very much up-for-grabs in 16. Less Safe Safer Senate Battleground Favors Dems Romney 12 Margin Obama 12 Margin +14 Murkowski (AK) Wyden (OR) +12 Total Seats Up in 2016 24 +9 McCain (AZ) +9 Blunt (MO) +8 Isakson (GA) Reid (NV) +7 Bennet (CO) +5 Total Seats Up in 2016 10 +2 Burr (NC) (CA) Open -1 Rubio (FL) -3 Portman (OH) -5 Toomey (PA) -6 Grassley (IA) -6 Ayotte (NH) -7 Johnson (WI) -17 Kirk (IL) Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/united_states_presidential_election,_2012 SLIDE 31 16