Peace and Human Potential Steve Killelea, Executive Chairman Institute for Economics and Peace Friday 19 th October, 2012 OECD, New Delhi
Many Unprecedented Challenges Facing Humanity Challenges are global, urgent and require unparalleled co-operation Peace is the prerequisite for solving these problems
Defining and Measuring Peace The perfect state would have no Police, Jails or Crime Negative peace Measures Crime Suppression Military War GPI Positive Peace Derived through Statistical analysis of datasets, indices and attitudes with the GPI Positive Peace Index
The Results
Resilience of Peace Why do Peaceful nations perform well? Tolerant and open societies are more likely to learn and adapt Violence needs reactive responses, peace allows for more forethought The future is more predictable in peace, allowing for better planning Peaceful societies are less likely to create alienation More likely to co-operate and support in times of crisis Freedom of information allows a better flow of information through society Broad education base creates a larger pool of human capital
4.5 Military Expenditure as % of GDP 1991-2010 16 12 8 Middle East and North Africa 4 4 3.5 0 1991 2001 2010 3 2.5 North America World 2 1.5 Central and Eastern Europe Asia-Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Western Europe Latin America 1 0.5 0 1991 2001 2010 Source: SIPRI, Institute for Economics and Peace
Military Expenditure slowing growth Global military expenditure fell to 2.6% of GDP in 2010, down from 2.7% Country % of GDP Billions USD United States 4.7 687 United Kingdom 2.5 61 France 2.7 57 Germany 1.4 47 Country % of GDP Billions USD China 2.2 114 Russia 4.3 52 Iran 2.8 10 North Korea 25% (est) 5 Syria 3.8 2 * Source SIPRI 2010, US excludes Afghanistan and Iraq
What Constitutes Defence? Relations with neighbouring states have improved 3 of the last 4 years Conventional military spending of West far exceeds that of its competitors 10 year war on terror yet potential for terrorist attacks is high Peace has flat-lined globally over the last 6 years Defence spending declining accelerated by budget constraints Internal factors are becoming more critical for Peace What is needed is a new paradigm for creating peace
Creating an Environment for Maximising Human Potential Hundreds of data sets correlated with GPI Strong statistical relations with: Low levels of Poverty Economic Performance Good Governance Well functioning governmental institutions Output describes a set of attitudes and structures to create a peaceful environment Peace is a proxy to describe an optimal environment for human potential to flourish
The 8 factors underpinning the Positive Peace Index Sound Business Environment Free flow of information Low levels of corruption Peace and Resilience Wellfunctioning Government Acceptance of the rights of others Equitable Distribution of Resources High levels of education Good relations with neighbors
Positive Peace Index Indicators Positive Peace Domain Indicator Weight % of Total Index Government Effectiveness 0.73 5.64% Well-Functioning Government Rule of Law 0.77 5.94% Political Culture 0.66 5.13% Global Competitiveness Report 0.6 4.63% Sound Business Environment Equitable Distribution of Resources Acceptance of the Rights of Others Good Relations with Neighbours Free Flow of Information High Levels of Education Low Levels of Corruption Index of Economic Freedom - Business Freedom 0.57 4.39% GDP Per Capita (PPP) 0.58 4.51% Inequality Adjusted Human Development Index (IHDI) 0.53 4.14% Life Expectancy 0.51 3.94% Infant Mortality 0.51 3.94% CIRI Empowerment Index 0.74 5.76% Gender Gap Index 0.53 4.07% Intergroup Cohesion 0.8 6.19% Interpersonal Safety and Trust 0.5 3.90% Extent of Regional Integration 0.64 4.99% Press Freedom Index 0.6 4.65% World Press Freedom Index 0.56 4.34% Internet Usage 0.62 4.82% Mean Years of Schooling 0.53 4.13% Secondary School Enrolment Rate 0.48 3.69% Control of Corruption 0.73 5.69% Corruptions Perception Index 0.71 5.52%
Positive Peace Index
Positive Peace Gap GPI compared to the PPI Deficit potential deterioration Surplus Potential improvement
PPI Gap by Government Type Deficit potential deterioration Burkina Faso Mozambique Malawi Bahrain Israel US Surplus Potential improvement
Ours is a world of nuclear giants and ethical infants. We know more about war than we know about peace, more about killing than we know about living. We have grasped the mystery of the atom and rejected the Sermon on the Mount. OMAR BRADLEY (1893-1981) US general