Return migra,on to Mexico: Policy response, measurement challenges and data needs Claudia Masferrer International Forum on Migration Statistics OECD-OIM, Paris, January 15th, 2017
February 21 st, 2017
Characteris,cs of Return Rise in return of Mexican immigrants from the U.S. Decline of circularity and increasing dura9ons of stay Increase in deporta9ons Changing economic condi9ons in the U.S. à Great Recession and slow recovery (González-Barrera 2015; Masferrer & Roberts 2016; Parrado & Flippen 2016; Villarreal 2014) New sites of return Northern border areas, tourist centers, large metropolitan areas (Masferrer & Roberts, 2012; Rivera 2011, 2013; Vargas Valle 2015)
Characteris,cs of Return Linked migra;ons Family migra9on remains a cri9cal pull for return Witness an increase in U.S.-born accompanying parents, siblings, and spouses Going to a home you have never been to creates challenges to integra9on in various domains, par9cularly for U.S.-born minors (Masferrer, Pederzini, Passel & Livingston 2012; van Hook & Zhang, 2011; Medina & Menjívar 2015; Zúñiga & Hamann 2015 Rendall and Torr 2008; Glick and Yabiku 2016 ) à Selec;on into return is changing, accompanied by evolu;on in the paberns and challenges of reseblement
Why is it important to think in the demography and geography of return? Demography How many? Who? With whom? How and why are they returning? How prepared? Geography Where? To the community of origin? What is the context of recep9on? Why there? Focalized public policies
What is the impact of deporta,on, unpreparedness and family return?
Mexican returnees US-Mexico flow Removals 1,600,000 1,400,000 1,200,000 1,000,000 800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: Department of Homeland Secuirty (DHS) y own es9mates using 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses, 2005 Count and 2015 Intercensal Survey 2015.
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2010 2015 US-Mexico 800 flows by place of birth and age Population living in Mexico that lived in US 5 years before (thousands) 600 400 200 0 Mexico EU Mexico EU Mexico EU Mexico EU Country of birth 18 years and older Less than 18 years Source: own es9mates using 1990, 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses, and 2015 Intercensal Survey 2015.
US-Mexico flows: Working-age popula,on and minors Thousands 5 10 15 20 Men Thousands 5 10 15 20 Women 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age 2000 2005 2010 2015 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 Age 2000 2005 2010 2015 Source: own es9mates using 2000 and 2010 Mexican censuses, 2005 Count and 2015 Intercensal Survey 2015.
Where are returnees arriving? Are they seiling in their communi,es of origin? Where they there before?
Returnees by state (total)
Rate of return Aims to relate returnees to popula9on at risk of returning (Masferrer & Roberts, 2012) Calculated for 2005 and 2015, without differen9a9ng by place of birth Rate of return (t, t+5) = Popula9on that were living in the US in t, but were in Mexico in t+5 Popula9on that len during the period t-5 to t and were in US in t
Measure 2000 2005 2010 2015 Residence in US 5 years ago (Inter-censal return) ü ü ü ü Country of birth ü ü ü Emigra;on, return, and nonreturn (5-year period) ü ü Rate of return (Return/emigra;on) ü ü
Rate of return: old and new des,na,ons
4.5 Increased rate and varia,on between states 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 T T T T T T T T T 0.0 Baja California Baja California Sur Sonora Chihuahua Colima Campeche Nayarit Yucatán Aguascalientes Tamaulipas Nuevo León Coahuila Tabasco Jalisco Chiapas Querétaro Oaxaca Durango Zacatecas Distrito Federal Sinaloa Michoacán San Luis Potosí Tlaxcala Veracruz México Hidalgo Guanajuato Puebla Morelos Guerrero 2005 2015 Average 2005 Rate = 1
What explains changes in economic integra,on and labor market incorpora,on of returnees?
Labor Market Incorpora,on Historically, return migra;on connected to processes of development Increased likelihood of self-employment Skill forma9on in the U.S. (Hagan, Hernandez-Leon and Demonsant 2015; Lindstrom 2013; Parrado & Gu9errez 2016; Gu9errez & Parrado 2016) Recent returnees engaging differently in the labor market Lower likelihood of becoming employers and lower earnings for recent arrival cohorts For prime-age men, change in earnings related to increasing engagement in the informal sector and occupa9on (Parrado & Gu9errez 2016; Gu9errez & Parrado 2016)
Employment Status: Men Self-employed Wage/salary worker 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 69.4 77.1 78.8 74.8 72.6 78.0 83.4 84.9 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 Non-Mover Internal migrant Returnees from U.S. Recent U.S.-born
Employment Status: Women Self-employed Wage/salary worker 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 70.1 72.8 79.3 79.7 84.8 82.6 79.3 85.1 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 2000 2015 Non-Mover Internal migrant Returnees from U.S. Recent U.S.-born
Adjusted Annual Income: By Gender, 2000-2015 10000 Men Women 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 2000 2010 2015 2000 2010 2015 Non-migrant US Returnee Internal Migrant US-born Non-migrant US Returnee Internal Migrant US-born
Deteriora,on of wages con,nued awer the recession for men. 15-24 24-39 40-59 14000 14000 14000 12000 12000 12000 10000 10000 10000 8000 8000 8000 6000 6000 6000 4000 4000 4000 2000 2000 2000 0 0 0 2000 2010 2015 2000 2010 2015 2000 2010 2015 Non-Migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee Recent US-born Non-Migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee Recent US-born Non-Migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee Recent US-born
The gap closes for women as well. Sharpest decline among those aged 40-59 15-24 25-39 40-59 14000 14000 14000 12000 12000 12000 10000 10000 10000 8000 8000 8000 6000 6000 6000 4000 4000 4000 2000 2000 2000 0 0 0 2000 2010 2015 2000 2010 2015 2000 2010 2015 Non-Migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee US-born Non-Migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee US-born Non-migrant Internal Migrant US Returnee US-born
How are minors integra,ng? How do schooling experiences vary by des,na,on, age, and migra,on experience?
Mexican and US-born minors who migrated recently from the US (2015)
Small gap in terms of school aiendance for returnees, recent US-born, and non-migrants 5-12 years 13-17 years 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 Retornado EU reciente No migrante Retornado EU reciente No migrante Retornado EU reciente No migrante Retornado EU reciente No migrante Retornado EU reciente No migrante Retornado EU reciente No migrante 2000 2010 2015 2000 2010 2015 Fuente: Cálculos propios con base en los censos de 2000 y 2010 y la Encuesta Intercensal 2015.
Changes in the nature of return Demographic changes Different dimensions of integra9on Mixed status families, family separa9on and return of complete households Geographic changes Emigra9on and return Going back to a different-new community Local development, remiuances, social and human capital Integra9on rather than reincopora9on Policies at des9na9on not at origin: transporta9on support to go back?
Challenges and data limita,ons Conceptual defini9ons of return Residence 5 years ago: 1 year ago is not available Place of birth Not available in 2005 and 2015 Not available in 2000 or 2010 for non-returnees Problema9c because returnees are joined by US-born family members (especially minors) Whole-household migrants Out-migra9on: Ommission results in an underes9mate of female migrants, child migrants, and migrants from the border (Hamilton and Savinar, 2015) Return migra9on: captured Different influences of geography of return in 2005 and 2015 Violence and insecurity Foreign-born popula9on
Thank you. cmasferrer@colmex.mx