TEMA 2 Los factores de crecimiento. Natalidad y mortalidad. Crecimiento natural. Movimientos migratorios.
MAPA DE MORTALIDAD
MAPA DE NATALIDAD
MAPA DE FERTILIDAD Map Key Color Fertility rate Long-term impact Red less than 2 declining population Yellow about 2 stable population Green 3 to 4 growing population Blue 4 or more rapidly growing population Gray data not available
TRENDS IN INFANT MORTALITY, BY REGION Annual number of deaths to infants under age 1 per 1,000 live births 133 93 89 99 81 52 48 22 21 7 World Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean 1970-1975 2005-2010 More Developed Regions Source: UN, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
NOTES ON TRENDS IN INFANT MORTALITY, BY REGION In the last three decades, the worldwide rate of death to children under age 1 has dropped by nearly one-half: from 93 deaths per 1,000 live births in the early 1970s to 52 deaths at the beginning of the new century. The rate of infant mortality varies widely by region. For example, in Africa, the infant mortality rate is 12 times higher than the rate for more developed regions (89 compared with 7).
INFANT MORTALITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period 163 74 53 88 92 62 76 114 87 123 100 116 Eritrea 2002 Madagascar 2003/04 Cameroon 2004 Mother less than 20 years old Burkina Faso 2003 Nigeria 2003 Mother 20 to 29 years old Mozambique 2003 Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
INFANT MORTALITY, NORTH AFRICA AND WEST ASIA Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period 87 68 74 70 44 46 27 25 Jordan 2002 Morocco 2003/2004 Egypt 2000 Turkmenistan 2000 Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
INFANT MORTALITY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period 101 88 108 68 53 39 42 39 20 27 Vietnam 2002 Philippines 2003 Indonesia 2002/2003 Cambodia 2000 Nepal 2001 Mother less than 20 years old Mother 20 to 29 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys.
INFANT MORTALITY, LATIN AMERICA/CARIBBEAN Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period 131 41 42 31 29 52 40 79 65 83 Dominican Republic 2002 Nicaragua 2001 Peru 2000 Bolivia 2003 Haiti 2000 Mother less than 20 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys. Mother 20 to 29 years old
NEONATAL MORTALITY, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period 54 35 49 40 30 31 50 37 58 48 62 42 Ghana 2003 Madagascar 2003/04 Cameroon 2004 Burkina Faso 2003 Nigeria 2003 Mozambique 2003 Mother less than 20 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys. Mother 20 to 29 years old
NEONATAL MORTALITY, SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA Rate by Age of Mother at Time of Birth Deaths by age 1 per 1,000 live births over a 10-year period 71 27 28 32 45 36 40 15 16 19 Vietnam 2002 Philippines 2003 Mother less than 20 years old Source: ORC Macro, Demographic and Health Surveys. Indonesia 2002/2003 Cambodia 2000 Mother 20 to 29 years old Nepal 2001
Millions Percent increase per year TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH WORLDWIDE Population Increase and Growth Rate, Five-Year Periods 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 80 87 83 79 76 76 75 72 2 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 1980-1985 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 0 Net population added per year Annual population growth rate Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.
NOTES ON TRENDS IN POPULATION GROWTH WORLDWIDE This figure illustrates the lag between changes in the rate of growth and the net increase in population per year. Over the period 1985-1995, the population growth rate declined (a reflection of declining fertility), yet millions of people were added to the world s population (which peaked around 1985, when 87 million people were added each year). From 2000 on, the growth rate will continue to decline. Between 2015 and 2020, we will still be adding 72 million people each year. Why? Because the generation of women now having their children is very large as the result of high fertility in their mothers and grandmothers generations.
WORLD POPULATION CLOCK 2005 Natural Increase per World More Developed Countries Less Developed Countries Less Developed Countries (less China) Year 80,794,218 1,234,907 79,559,311 71,906,587 Day 221,354 3,383 217,971 197,004 Minute 154 2 151 137 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
PROJECTED POPULATION CHANGE, BY COUNTRY Percent Population Change, 2005-2050 Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.
THREE CENTRAL MESSAGES OF THE REPORT OF THE SECRETARY- GENERAL International migration is a key component of the globalization process International migration is a positive force for development, both in countries of origin and in countries of Destination It is possible and advisable to strengthen international cooperation on international migration
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IS A KEY COMPONENT OF THE GLOBALIZATION PROCESS
PERCENTAGE OF PLAYERS FROM NATIONAL TEAMS WHO NORMALLY PLAY IN OTHER COUNTRIES ( KICKER DRAIN )
PERCENTAGE OF PLAYERS FROM NATIONAL TEAMS WHO ARE FOREIGN-BORN ( IMPORT OF NEEDED SKILLS )
WE ARE IN A NEW MIGRATION ERA Since the late 1980s: migration has been rising rapidly but there is a freer flow of goods and capital than of persons Barriers to the movement of lowskilled workers persist
THE NUMBER OF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS IS ALMOST EQUALLY DIVIDED INTO THREE TYPES (Cumulated migrant stock -- Millions of persons)
MIGRATION TO INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES IS MORE STEADY THAN THAT TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES 4% 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% (Rate of growth of the migrant stock) 2,90% 3% 2,60% 1% 1% 0% 0,50% 0,20% 1960-1975 1975-1990 1990-2005 More developed regions without the former USSR Less developed regions
MIGRANTS CONSTITUTE HIGH PROPORTIONS OF THE POPULATION IN FEW COUNTRIES (MIGRANTS AS PERCENTAGE OF THE POPULATION, 2005)
MIGRATION POLICIES Migration policies have become somewhat less restrictive There is great diversity of policy stances Some countries allow permanent migration selected on the basis of skills or family ties Many allow temporary admission often under work permits There is growing preference for temporary migration schemes
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION POLICIES HAVE BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS RESTRICTIVE (Percentage of countries)
INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION IS A POSITIVE FORCE FOR DEVELOPMENT, BOTH IN COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN AND IN COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION
FOR COUNTRIES OF DESTINATION There are some adverse but small effects on low-skilled workers Most migrants complement local workers and therefore contribute to economic growth Growing educational levels and population ageing increase the positive effects of migration Migration has additional positive effects on economic growth: entrepreneurship, diverse supply of services, etc. Main drawbacks: achieving the mutual adaptation of migrants and host societies is not easy and irregular migration is not desirable
WITHOUT MIGRATION, THE LABOUR FORCE WOULD DECLINE DRASTICALLY IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES Projected population aged 15-64 with and without migration (medium variant)
IN SOME COUNTRIES, THIS EFFECT WOULD BE CATASTROPHIC: GERMANY Projected population aged 15-64 with and without migration (medium variant)
FOR COUNTRIES OF ORIGIN International migrants are usually not among the poorest persons in communities o origin The development of migrant networks lower the risks of migration and may enable poorer persons to migrate Remittances increase family welfare but their macroeconomic effects are less clear-cut Many benefits stem from a close relation between communities of origin and migrant communities abroad eturn migration and circulation permit countries of origin to reap greater benefits from migration Main costs: brain drain, which may not be necessarily compensated by higher incentives to acquire training in order to migrate
REMITTANCES RECEIVED BY DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
MIGRANTS WITH TERTIARY EDUCATION AS PERCENTAGE OF THE INCREASE IN ALL MIGRANTS AGED 25 OR OVER, 1990-2000
IT IS POSSIBLE AND ADVISABLE TO STRENGTHEN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION ON INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
MODES OF INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION REGARDING MIGRATION The outcome documents of United Nations conferences and summits United Nations Conventions, with varying degree of coverage International organizations / Global Migration Group Global initiatives Regional processes Bilateral agreements
STATUS OF RATIFICATION OF INTERNATIONAL INSTRUMENTS RELATIVE TO INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION
COMMON INTERESTS ON MIGRATION AND AN AGENDA FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION Ensure the protection of the rights of all migrants and prevent their abuse or exploitation Co-development as the framework to realize the potential of migration as a force for development: Leveraging the use of remittances Strengthen ties with migrant communities Global concerted approach to the formation of human capital
COMMON INTERESTS ON MIGRATION AND AN AGENDA FOR INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION Mutual adaptation of migrants and host societies To combat racism and xenophobia in all their forms To channel migration through regular streams on the basis of realistic policies to shape those flows Combat crimes of trafficking and smuggling To improve the information and evidence base.
A CONSULTATIVE MIGRATION FORUM IN THE UNITED NATIONS To consider all dimensions of the migration process To promote coherence in terms of migration and development policies It would have a consultative character, with voluntary participation of Member States and room for innovation It would respect the right of sovereign States to shape their own migration policies
NÚMERO DE NACIMIENTOS 25 países con mayor número de nacimientos por 1.000 habitantes (2005 2010) http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/js-charts/fert-births_0.htm Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York
FERTILIDAD http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/fertility_figures/interactive-maps_tf.htm Note: These maps display estimates of total fertility for all countries of the world as well as probabilistic projections of total fertility, which have been carried out using a Bayesian Hierarchical Model (BHM). These estimates and projections have been prepared for the 2010 Revision of the World Population Prospects Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York