UNCERTAINTY CHIPPING AWAY AT LEBANON S ECONOMY

N 48 September 2016 Page 3 Loan growth accelerates as deposits pick up Page 4 Government reports primary surplus of $250m in April Page 5 Lebanon received $775m through July in Syrian refugee aid Page 6 Economists raise Lebanon s growth outlook to 1.2% in 2016 Page 7 Latest data for Lebanon s key economic sectors Page 8 Key trends in the Lebanese economy UNCERTAINTY CHIPPING AWAY AT LEBANON S ECONOMY Real estate, construction and banking activity more volatile in the first half Exports in July staged their biggest comeback in over three years Consumer confidence rising for some more than others Positive economic momentum built in the first few months of 2016 appears to have faded by June, reflecting heightened levels of uncertainty and renewed security fears. The Central Bank s Coincident Indicator, a composite index of main indicators, fell by 1.5% yoy to 273.5 points in June, its first negative reading in 15 months. Downbeat performance during the month reflected fears that the explosion near the headquarters of a Lebanese bank would signal the beginning of a new cycle of violence in the country, particularly in light of the fragile political situation. Economic performance has still been remarkably resilient given the length of the current political and regional crises, although it is less than surprising to see uncertainty somewhat chipping away at the country s resilience almost five years after a national unity government collapsed in early 2011. Real estate transactions slipped in May, June and July, but they are still up 6.9% yoy to $4.7bn in the first seven months. An estimated 76% of Lebanese economists surveyed in July by Economena, a data provider, expect real estate prices to drop in the next 12 months, but a majority of 65% said price declines in Beirut would be less than 20% in 2017 relative to 2016. The projected decline in prices may help reinvigorate transactions activity, survey results showed. Surveyed economists also raised their consensus forecast for economic growth in 2016 to 1.2% as of July 2016, up from 0.7% six months earlier, riding largely on optimism over the security situation in the country. HIGHER VOLATILITY IN THE FIRST HALF Construction, trade and banking, much like real estate, have produced mixed results with elevated volatility levels so far in 2016. Cement deliveries, a proxy for construction activity, Coincident Indicator (12-month MA, % yoy) 20% 15% 10% Lebanese exports (% yoy) 60% 40% 20% +13.2% 5% 0% 4.4% 0% -20% -5% -7.2% -10% Jun-06 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research -40% -39.7% -60% Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-16 Source: Customs, Economena, SGBL Research ext.11210

fell by 11.3% yoy in June, but strong demand in the earlier months of the year helped keep deliveries up by 10% yoy to 2.5 million tons in the first half. Total exports rose by 13.2% yoy to $246.7m in July, their best performance in over three years. Green shoots of stability are also finally emerging from export activity. Total exports rose by 13.2% yoy to $246.7m in July, their best performance in over three years, boding well for the country s trade balance during the month. Exports are still 7.7% yoy lower at $1.6bn on a cumulative basis through July. And even in its wobbly state, the government still managed to squeeze out a primary surplus of $249.6m in April 2016, the latest month for which data are available, although insufficient to offset dismal performance in the first quarter. Prospects for public finances in the coming months appear less promising. The benefits from lower oil prices to fiscal performance have already peaked, with transfers to Electricité du Liban slated to surge starting September to reflect the rebound in oil prices in the spring, according to Citi, a US-based investment bank. Banking activity, which got off on the wrong foot in 2016, regained some of its footing by June. Private deposits fell in January and February, but returned to positive growth of 4.1% yoy to $154.7bn by June, sufficient to finance the public and private sectors. Banks need to grow their deposits by close to 3% in order to fully absorb rising government debt issuances, according to Citi. The net increase in deposits, however, was $3.1bn in the first half of the year, down from $4.2bn over the same period in, reflecting weaker flows from non-residents over the period. In contrast, private sector credit grew by 3.1% yoy to $55.9bn by June, equivalent to an increase of $1.7bn in production during the first six months, nearly double the banking sector s production levels in the first half of. The dollarization rate of private credit fell to 74.4% at the end of June 2016, compared with 84% at the end of 2009. The distribution of credit by currency has been steadily shifting away from foreign currency, a result of ample local currency liquidity with banks and massive Central Bank stimulus in Lebanese Pound. The dollarization rate of private credit fell to 74.4% at the end of June 2016, compared with 84% at the end of 2009. The dollarization of deposits, on the other hand, has been stable within the 65% to 66% range for the past five years despite frequent security, political, and economic shocks during the period. In fact, stability in the dollarization rate of the resident private sector s deposits at 60% for several years points to a high level of confidence in the financial system among the local depositor base. Consumers too have been more ebullient since the security situation turned the corner in mid-2014. The index of consumer confidence published by ARA Marketing Research & Consultancy improved by an average of 5.1% yoy in the first seven months of 2016, including a rebound of 10.1% yoy in July alone. Surveyed consumers were more confident about their current income than they were in July, building on their consistently improving perception of the security situation in the country. Resilient confidence levels appear to be driven largely by young high income earners, particularly in Mount Lebanon. Consumers earning more than $2,500 per month reported the highest confidence level in the country in the first half of 2016, 20 points ahead of the national average, according to a survey by the American University of Beirut. Other groups, including students, those aged 21 to 29 years, residents of Mount Lebanon, as well as private sector employees followed respectively with the highest confidence levels in the country. Value of real estate transactions (Jan-Jul, ) Dollarization rates 4.79 4.65 5.10 4.67 90% 85% 80% 75% Private deposits Private credit 74.4% 4.37 70% 65% 64.9% 2012 2013 2014 2016 Source: Cadastre, Economena, SGBL Research 60% Jan-10 Aug-11 Mar-13 Oct-14 May-16 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research

BANKING LOAN GROWTH ACCELERATES AS DEPOSITS PICK UP Deposits picked up in recent months, but growth is still slower than in Banks require deposit growth of close to 3% - as per Citi Loan production doubled to $1.7bn in the first half of 2016 Banking activity picked up considerably in recent months, as lenders take greater advantage of Central Bank initiatives to support economic activity. Private sector credit increased by $1.7bn in the first six months of the year to $55.9bn by June, equivalent to growth of 3.1% yoy, nearly double production levels in the first half of. Under Banque du Liban s (BdL) stimulus package for 2016, banks may access over $1bn in local currency loans at 1% to finance their residential lending and their loans to productive sectors. Other incentives include reductions in reserve requirements and facilities to guarantee equity investments by banks in the knowledge economy. Unconventional monetary tools used by the Central Bank are also helping banks reduce risk from their exposure to the public sector while consolidating financial and fiscal stability. A series of operations between the Ministry of Finance, BdL, and the banking sector conducted in recent months reduced the latter s holdings of local currency debt and increased its holdings of Eurobonds and BdL CDs in US Dollar. The operations led to an improvement in the government s foreign debt profile and increased BdL s foreign assets, but left commercial banks with less foreign currency and ample local currency, according to Citi, a US-based investment bank. As a result, banks are under increasing pressure to accelerate growth in their foreign currency deposits. The average interest rate on US Dollar deposits has increased by 14 basis points since the start of the year to 3.31% by June, which may help attract more deposits. Private sector deposits have picked up in recent months but their growth in value and in percentage points remains below those in previous years. Private deposits grew by 4.1% yoy to $154.7bn through June, a net increase of $3.1bn in the first half of the year, down from $4.2bn over the same period in. Deposits of non-residents have continued to lag behind, growing by just $313m in the first half, down from $1.37bn in the first six months of. The average interest rate on US Dollar deposits has increased by 14 basis points since the start of the year to 3.31% by June, which may help attract more deposits. Banks will need to grow their deposits by close to 3% in order to fully absorb rising government debt issuances given the widening deficit, stated Citi. A draft budget proposal for 2017 was submitted to Cabinet in late August, but its details have not been disclosed yet. The Lebanese government will likely need to finance $3.5bn in spending in 2016 and another $4.3bn in 2017, according to World Bank estimates. Private sector deposits (Jan-Jun, ) Claims on private sector (Jan-Jun, ) Residents Non-residents 3.34 5.7 3.1 2.33 2.33 3.9 2.8 2.9 0.8 0.9-0.4 2.3 4.2 2.9 3.2 0.2 1.4 1.0 3.1 2.8 4.0 2.8 0.1 1.4 0.3 1.39 1.80 0.84 1.66 2006 "07 "08 "09 "10 "11 "12 "13 "14 "15 "16 Source: BDL, Economena, SGBL Research 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Source: BdL, Customs, Economena, SGBL Research

GOVERNMENT GOVERNMENT REPORTS PRIMARY SURPLUS OF $250M IN APRIL Fiscal deficit at a record $1.63bn in the first four months Revenues from the VAT, Customs and income taxes are still growing Eurobond prices may offer a good entry point for investors, as per Citi Despite a large debt pile and a stagnant economy, it hasn t all been gloom and doom for Lebanese public finances. The government reported a primary surplus of $249.6m in April 2016, reflecting a reduction in spending during the month, while a drop in debt service helped shrink the fiscal deficit to $192.2m from $431.9m in April. Consumer price index (average, % change) Revenues in the first four months also came in stronger following a technical rebound in economic activity over the period. Revenues from the Value Added Tax, the government s most significant income stream, rose by 3.8% yoy to $822.2m, through April, while Customs taxes brought in 2.4% yoy more during the period. The rise in tax receipts from both taxes indicates positive growth in consumer demand, particularly in light of a 3% yoy average decrease in consumer prices over the period. Deep cuts in spending in April, however, were not enough to offset dismal performance in the first quarter. As a result, the deficit in the first four months still came in at a record $1.63bn, $139.2m more than the same period in. With fiscal performance weakening, the country s debt has accelerated since the start of the year. Gross public debt grew by 5.6% yoy to $72.9bn through June 2016, a net increase of $2.6bn in the first half of the year and a record high for the period. Gross public debt grew by 5.6% yoy to $72.9bn through June 2016, a record high for the period. The rising debt stock is reducing fiscal space for the government, but stable interest rates are helping keep debt service costs in check. The average yield on Treasury bills reached 7.02% in June 2016, an increase of 32 basis points over the previous three years, but this increase was largely offset by an equivalent drop in the weighted interest rate on Eurobonds over the same period to 6.61%. Still, fiscal prospects for the coming months appear less promising. The benefits from lower oil prices to fiscal performance have already peaked, with transfers to Electricité du Liban slated to surge starting September to reflect the rebound in oil prices in the spring, according to Citi. Weaker public finances, however, are not the culprit in the recent underperformance of Eurobonds, stated Citi, but BdL s operations with the government and local banks which have led to a reduction in foreign currency liquidity at the latter and dampened activity in secondary markets. With BdL s financial operations likely already coming to a close, Lebanese Eurobonds may now offer a good entry point for international investors seeking a carry opportunity given a superior Sharpe ratio, according to Citi. VAT revenues (Jan-Apr, $m) 857 819 792 822 771 764 718 673 580 481 2007 2010 2013 2016 Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research Taxes on wages (12m moving sum, $m) 480 461 430 414 380 352 330 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Source: MoF, Economena, SGBL Research

REFUGEES LEBANON RECEIVED $775M THROUGH JULY IN SYRIAN REFUGEE AID Number of registered Syrian refugees fell slightly to 1.03 million by June Lebanon received approval for $100m concessional finance for education Jordan to generate jobs for 200,000 refugees through concessional finance Lebanon received $775m in aid from international donors in 2016 through July 15 to help cope with the refugee crisis, 41% of the country s total appeal for the year, according to data by the ed Nations Higher Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR). Lebanon had benefited from $1.1bn in Syrian refugee-related aid during the full year, but the number of refugees registered with UNHCR has since declined by around 36,000 refugees in the first half of 2016 to just over 1 million by June. Unofficial estimates place the total number of de facto Syrian refugees at 1.5 million. The number of refugees registered with UNHCR has declined by around 36,000 refugees in the first half of 2016 to just over 1 million by June. Funding received and allocated through May reached $726m, according to UNHCR, with an estimated $197.9m spent towards food security, followed by education with $150.8m and basic assistance at $101.2m. Refugees and targeted host communities also received assistance for energy and water, health and shelter in the amounts of $65.2m, $57.6m and $42.8m respectively during the first five months. The international community pledged at a February conference in London nearly $12bn in humanitarian aid for Syrian refugees, much of which has yet to be allocated across host countries including Lebanon, Turkey and Jordan. A significant portion of the aid is allocated to helping create jobs for Syrian refugees by using concessional loans to finance infrastructure projects in host countries. Jordan, host to 656,198 refugees as of mid-august, has already received commitments for an estimated $1.7bn in grants and grant-like aid as part of a response plan that aims to generate nearly 200,000 jobs for Syrian refugees by 2018. Meanwhile, the country received $492.8m in grants through mid-july for short-term assistance, equivalent to $750 per refugee for the 6.5 month period. Jordan has already received commitments for an estimated $1.7bn as part of a response plan that aims to generate nearly 200,000 jobs for Syrian refugees by 2018. On the other hand, Lebanon received in July approval for a $100m concessional loan by the World Bank to ensure all Syrian refugees are enrolled in school by the end of the 2016-17 school year. The country is also appealing for an estimated $4bn in concessional financing over five years from the World Bank and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to implement large-scale infrastructure projects that would create jobs for Syrians and vulnerable Lebanese communities. At the same time, Lebanon has been tapping into concessional finance from other multilateral institutions to fund its infrastructure projects, including most recently $372.7m in loans from the Islamic Development Bank to improve water and water treatment infrastructure. Registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon (M) Aid to Syrian refugees in Lebanon ($m) 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.03 1,039 874 1,106 775 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Feb-12 Mar-13 Apr -14 May-15 Jun -16 Source: UNHCR, Economena, SGBL Research 161 44 2011 2012 2013 2014 2016 Source: UNHCR, Economena, SGBL Research Note: 2016 data are through July 15

ECONOMISTS RAISE LEBANON S GROWTH OUTLOOK TO 1.2% IN 2016 Consensus growth forecast for 2016 improved to 1.2% from 0.7% in January Outlook for remittances improved since January 2016 survey Real estate price correction, not a crash in 2017 Lebanese economists raised their forecasts for economic growth in 2016 to 1.2% as of July 2016, up from 0.7% six months earlier, according to the Lebanese Economic Outlook, a survey of 17 leading Lebanese economists conducted between July 15 and August 2, 2016 by Economena Analytics, an independent economic data provider. Thirteen of the 17 leading economists polled by Economena said growth would come in at 1% or more during the year, while just two forecasters predicted negative growth. Survey results are slightly more optimistic than the IMF s growth forecast of 1% in 2016. The IMF also sees growth accelerating to 2% in 2017 and inflation turning positive to 2% from an expected -0.7% in 2016. ICT continued to top the list of sectors that are expected to outperform the economy in the coming year, followed by education and the manufacturing of food and beverages. Economists said they were more optimistic now than they were six months ago about activity in the transportation sector and at restaurants. All 17 survey participants said output in the transportation sector would steady or increase in the next 12 months. Prices of gasoline in the local market are near a decade low, which, along with a stronger US Dollar, is helping improve consumers purchasing power. IMPROVED OUTLOOK FOR REMITTANCES The negative impact on expatriate remittances from low oil prices appears to be more contained than previously thought. The consensus among surveyed economists is for remittances to remain flat over the next 12 months, compared with a negative outlook at the beginning of 2016. Oil prices led to a reduction in government revenues in Gulf countries where a large Lebanese expatriate population resides, but growth there has remained positive, and the diplomatic crisis between Lebanon and Saudi Arabia in early 2016 has also somewhat abated. Instead, remittances from Africa were noted as a weak link given more dire economic circumstances relative to the GCC. Likelihood of economic catalyst/shock (% of respondents) 11.8% 47.1% 41.2% Security situation deteriorates significantly in 2016 relative to Likely Note sure Unlikely 41.2% 5.9% 52.9% Oil and gas drilling licenses awarded by end of 2017 5.9% 29.4% A president is elected in 2016 64.7% 64.7% 29.4% 5.9% Real estate prices in Beirut fall by more than 20% in 2017 vs. 2016 Source: Economena, SGBL Research Stable remittances will also support growth in bank deposits and allow banks to increase their lending. In particular, the outlook for loan growth improved significantly in the current survey from the start of the year. Positive banking and insurance activity is expected to be underpinned by stability in the security situation, which just two of the 17 surveyed economists said might deteriorate in 2016 relative to. HOTELS TO POST THE WORST PERFORMANCE On the other hand, forecasters turned more bearish on the hotel industry despite an expected continuation of the recovery in tourist arrivals. Prospects for hotels are now even less promising than real estate and construction, consensus survey results showed. Optimism in the January survey about the election of a President in 2016 faded in July. Just one in 17 economists said Lebanon would fill its top political post this year, down from 8 economists in the January survey. Respondents were similarly pessimistic over oil and gas exploration with 9 in 17 saying that drilling licenses would not be awarded by end of 2017. Cabinet has yet to approve two critical decrees that would clear the way for the first bidding phase. REAL ESTATE CORRECTION, NOT A CRASH IN 2016/2017 Economists have become more pessimistic over real estate prices since the start of the year. Nearly 76% of surveyed economists expect real estate prices to drop in the next 12 months, but a majority of 65% said price declines in Beirut would be less than 20% in 2017 relative to 2016. At the same time, forecasters have become more optimistic over the volume of property transactions, with several indicating that softer prices would help invigorate activity in the next 12 months. Outlook for 2016 (scale of -5 to +5) ICT Education F&B manufacturing Transport Insurance Health and social care Public spending Restaurants Banking Overall economy Wholesale and retail trade Manufacturing (excl. F&B) Public revenues Construction Real estate Hotels -0.4-0.4-0.6-0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.4 Source: Economena, SGBL Research Note: -5 describes a significant decrease and +5 a significant increase

Key indicators Cleared cheques Real estate transactions Construction permits Cement deliveries Tourist arrivals Airport traffic Balance of payments Money supply: M3 BSE volumes Passenger car sales Hotel occupancy (average) Sqm, m Tons, m m m m % 69.62 8.01 12.34 5.04 1.52 7.24-3.36 123.62 74.64 39,361 56 May-16 5.62 0.61 0.97 0.49 0.15 0.62-0.86 125.65 4.41 3,165 66 Jun-16 5.66 0.66 1.08 0.42 0.15 0.57-0.01 126.38 2.86 4,180 44 Jul-16 0.59 0.89 2.89 3,700 63.00 %Y/Y YTD -7.38 33.85-25.48 4.67-0.98 6.41-11.25 2.50 0.00 0.72 12.81 4.16-98.36-1.77 4.94 2.76-14.37 47.15-12.76 22,144 7.00 56 PYTD 34.77 4.37 5.96 2.27 0.67 3.90-1.32 2.76 48.16 22,288 56 Indices Consumer Confidence Index - ARA Consumer Price Index Purchasing Managers' Index BdL Coincident Indicator 95.08 97.03 48.38 278.61 May-16 112.00 95.62 44.80 297.90 Jun-16 98.00 96.27 44.40 273.50 Jul-16 98.00 96.42 45.50 %Y/Y 10.11-0.48-7.71-1.51 %YTD -9.26 0.53-5.01-9.53 Trade Imports Exports Trade balance Port of Beirut volumes TEUs, m 18.07 2.95-15.12 1.13 May-16 1.63 0.24-1.39 0.10 Jun-16 1.53 0.28-1.25 0.10 Jul-16 1.45 0.25-1.20 0.09 %Y/Y -5.20 13.15-8.26-14.04 YTD 10.84 1.63-9.21 0.67 PYTD 10.31 1.77-8.54 0.67 Financial and monetary Commercial bank assets Claims on the resident private sector Claims on the non-resident private sector Claims on the public sector Resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Non-resident private sector deposits Dollarization rate (average) Private sector deposits with commercial banks Private loans / deposits Public sector deposits BdL foreign assets BSE market capitalization Gross public debt % % % 185.99 48.04 6.18 37.80 119.73 59.32 31.86 86.44 151.59 39.74 8.77 40.49 11.22 70.32 Apr-16 187.92 48.72 6.48 38.25 121.20 59.20 31.72 85.86 152.93 40.20 9.13 42.75 11.05 71.68 May-16 188.63 49.07 6.46 37.56 121.86 59.17 32.03 86.16 153.89 40.26 8.77 43.20 11.06 71.49 Jun-16 190.36 49.45 6.43 37.45 122.49 59.24 32.17 86.27 154.66 40.37 9.76 45.35 11.03 72.89 %Y/Y 5.70 6.83 17.97-1.30 4.77-0.02 1.56-0.27 4.09 0.78 2.01 0.92-4.55 5.60 YTD 4.37 1.41 0.25-0.35 2.76 59.13 0.31 86.09 3.07 40.28 0.98 4.86-0.19 2.56 %YTD 2.35 2.93 4.04-0.91 2.30 0.99 0.98 0.99 2.03 1.02 11.19 12.00-1.65 3.64 Public finance Revenues Value Added Tax Telecommunications Income taxes Customs taxes Expenditures Transfers to EdL Debt service Primary balance Fiscal balance 9.58 2.10 1.23 1.92 1.37 13.53 1.14 4.46 0.72-3.95 Feb-16 0.64 0.11 0.16 0.08 0.10 1.15 0.05 0.23-0.28-0.51 Mar-16 0.69 0.11 0.09 0.10 0.11 1.40 0.06 0.55-0.16-0.71 Apr-16 0.89 0.29 0.00 0.19 0.12 1.08 0.06 0.43 0.25-0.19 %Y/Y -15.49-1.39 - -0.15-2.16-27.10-18.78-6.40 492.01-55.50 YTD: year-to-date, PYTD: previous year-to-date. Source: MoF, BdL, BSE, ARA, Customs, Markit, EY, RHIA, CAS, Economena, SGBL Research YTD 3.32 0.82 0.35 0.63 0.44 4.96 0.21 1.44-0.15-1.63 PYTD 3.14 0.79 0.34 0.59 0.43 4.63 0.39 1.35-0.10-1.49

BdL securities portfolio (% of total assets) The Central Bank s securities portfolio swelled to 25.4% of total assets by mid-august 2016, up from 15.2% two years earlier, as the monetary authority plays a growing role in financing the state. BdL also maintains $36.9bn in foreign assets, down 4.2% yoy as of August 15. $2500 and Above 25.4% Student 21-29 Years Mount Lebanon Private Sector Employee 40-49 Years 20.4% $1500-2499 Christians 60 Years and Above -5 Shiites -5 15.4% 30-39 Years -6 15.2% 14.7% $750-1499 -7 50-59 Years -8 11.4% Public Sector Employee -11 Bekaa -15 Aug-06 Aug-08 Aug-10 Aug-12 Aug-14 Aug-16 Unemployed -16 Source: BdL, Economena, SGBL Research Confidence in H1 2016 (difference from national average) Consumer confidence decreased slightly in the first half of the year, but some segments fared significantly better. Those earning more than $2,500 per month reported the highest confidence level in the country, at 20 points above the national average, while the unemployed reported the lowest. 11 8 6 6 5 4 3 20 Source: AUB, Economena, SGBL Research BSE value of traded shares ($m, 12-month moving sum) Outstanding Treasury bills by maturity (July, 2016) Trading activity on the Beirut Stock Exchange has become almost entirely dominated by bank stocks. The value of Solidere shares traded on the exchange reached $74.2m in the 12 months through July 2016, while trading in banking stocks reached $584.6m over the same period. 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 Banks Solidere 584.58 74.23 0 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Source: BSE, Economena, SGBL Research A quarter of outstanding local currency debt matures within 3 years, followed by 5-year and 7-year papers with a fifth each as of July 2016. Efforts by the government to issue more long-term debt have helped raise the average weighted life to 1,286 days by July, the highest in since 2013. Others 6.5% 12 years 4.7% 2 years 6.6% 10 years 15.8% 7 years 20.9% $43.5bn 3 years 24.3% 5 years 21.3% Source: ABL, Economena, SGBL Research