Ontario Election 2018 Final Week Tracking, June 3-5: Final Poll Before Election Day Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief June 2018
Methodology 1 of 2 This Methodology & Data Disclosure Brief features the final survey results of Pollara Strategic Insights final week tracking survey for the Ontario Election, which involves daily polling updates based on a rolling sample of mixed-mode survey interviewing. Previous waves were based on a roll-up sample of the most recent 4 days of surveys. To provide the most current and sensitive sounding in our final poll, we have based this final wave of results upon our most recent 3 days of polling. This is our final update, based upon a mixed-mode sample of N=906 adult Ontarians who selfidentified as eligible to vote in the Ontario Election. The survey was conducted from June 3 to 5, 2018. Of the 906 surveys conducted: 283 were conducted via a live-interviewer CATI telephone survey approach, with 26% of the interviews being conducted via cellphone. 623 were conducted via an online survey approach, among verified members of a research panel. Because the sample for this survey included both probability (telephone) and non-probability (online) samples, a margin of error cannot be applied to it. The online sample is not probability-based because respondents self-selected for participation in a verified research panel. Sample surveys and polls of all types may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. If the entire N=906 sample were conducted among a probability sample, it would carry a margin of error of ± 3.3%, 19 times out of 20. As it is probability sample, the telephone portion of the sample (n=283) carries a margin of error of ± 5.8%, 19 times out of 20. 2
Methodology 2 of 2 The data are statistically weighted to ensure the regional composition province-wide and within region to ensure age and gender composition reflects that of the Ontario adult eligible population using information from the 2016 Census and accounting for older Ontarians increased propensity to vote based on an analysis of Ontario s election performance relative to federal elections. Based upon our analysis, the composition of the electorate over the age of 55 would range between 43 and 48 percent. In this report, results are expressed as percentages unless otherwise noted. Results may not add to 100% due to rounding or multiple responses. Net results cited in the text may not exactly match individual results shown in the charts due to rounding. Previous to this final week tracking survey, Pollara Strategic Insights conducted 3 online surveys of adult Ontarians who self-identified as eligible to vote in the Ontario Election. The surveys were conducted during each of the following 3 time periods: May 3 to 4 (N=1,011 interviews), May 21 to 22 (N=870), and May 27 to 28 (N=800). Because the samples for each of these surveys was based on respondents who initially self-selected for participation in a verified research panel rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error can be calculated. Sample surveys and polls of all types may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and measurement error. If these 3 surveys were based upon probability samples, they would carry margins of error of ± 3.1, ±3.3%, and 3.5%, 19 times out of 20, respectively. The data for these 3 online surveys was statistically weighted to ensure the regional composition provincewide and within region to ensure age and gender composition reflects that of the Ontario adult eligible population using information from the 2016 Census and accounting for older Ontarians increased propensity to vote based on an analysis of Ontario s election performance relative to federal elections. Based upon our analysis, the composition of the electorate over the age of 55 would range between 43 and 48 percent. 3
Credentials & Copyright Pollara Strategic Insights is a longstanding Gold Seal-certified member of the Marketing Research & Intelligence Association (MRIA) and adheres to their Code of Conduct for Market and Social Research, including the Common Standards of Disclosure. 2018, Pollara Strategic Insights This release of survey results and the data contained in it are the sole and exclusive property of Pollara Strategic Insights. They are not designed to support any election outcome or prediction model and no license to use these survey results or data for such purpose is either granted or implied by their publication. Pollara does not endorse, and has no responsibility for the accuracy or result of any predictive model that incorporates this polling data. Furthermore, any use of this information to produce polling aggregations or election models without Pollara s written permission will be considered defamation of Pollara and its brand as well as a violation of Pollara s intellectual property, and Pollara reserves the right to take appropriate legal action. 4
The Horse Race
With one day to go before Election Day the PCs and NDP are neck-and-neck among decided voters PC 38 NDP 38 Lib 17 Green 6 (IF NOT VOTED YET:) Q14. Thinking about the upcoming provincial election next week, for which party do you plan on voting for? (IF ALREADY VOTED:) Q15. What party did you vote for in the provincial election? (IF UNDECIDED IN Q14:) Q16. Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide, for which party would you vote for? NOTE: Graph does not display 2% indicating vote intent for another party. BASE: Decided Voters, Leaners Included (Undecideds & Non-Voters Excluded). Unweighted N=766. June 3-5. 6
Initial Vote Tracking, ending June 3-5: PCs & NDP tied at 32%, Liberals continue decline. 26 31 19 PC NDP Lib Green Undecided With undecideds down to 11%, the PCs have reached their high point of the campaign. The PCs won on both the phones and the web last night only. The NDP are approaching their Pre-Debate high point. 33 30 38 15 15 28 29 30 29 29 17 16 31 32 31 32 15 14 14 12 9 14 13 11 11 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4-May 22-May 28-May 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun (IF NOT VOTED YET:) Q14. Thinking about the upcoming provincial election next week, for which party do you plan on voting for? (IF ALREADY VOTED:) Q15. What party did you vote for in the provincial election? (IF UNDECIDED IN Q14:) Q16. Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide, for which party would you vote for? NOTE: Graph does not display 2% indicating vote intent for another party, or 4% not voting. BASE: Total Sample, June 3-5. Vote Intent = Decided+Leaners. 7
Decided Vote Tracking, ending June 3-5: Dead heat continues PC NDP Lib Green 43 40 30 23 38 37 18 32 37 37 37 38 20 20 39 38 37 38 17 17 17 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 4-May 22-May 28-May 2-Jun 3-Jun 4-Jun 5-Jun (IF NOT VOTED YET:) Q14. Thinking about the upcoming provincial election next week, for which party do you plan on voting for? (IF ALREADY VOTED:) Q15. What party did you vote for in the provincial election? (IF UNDECIDED IN Q14:) Q16. Well, if the election were held today and you had to decide, for which party would you vote for? NOTE: Graph does not display 2% indicating vote intent for another party. BASE: Decided Voters, Leaners Included (Undecideds & Non-Voters Excluded). Unweighted N=766. June 3-5. 8
Data
June 3-5, 2018 Ontario Pollara Vote Q14/15/16 Summary Vote... Summary REGION GENDER AGE Ont Ont Ont Toron Metro South South Cent Ont Ont Total to Belt West Cntrl ral North East Men Women18-34 35-54 55+ Total Answering (906) (181) (245) (109) (136) (82) (45) (109) (435) (471) (199) (281) (426) Total Answering UNWT (906) (167) (250) (123) (125) (87) (39) (115) (416) (490) (172) (311) (423) DECIDED Liberal-Wynne 17 19 20 6 18 10 6 24 13 20 18 14 18 PC-Ford 38 35 43 38 34 37 17 44 47 29 31 39 41 NDP-Horwath 38 41 32 52 39 33 61 26 33 42 43 41 34 Green-Schreiner 6 3 4 3 8 17 10 4 5 7 5 6 6 Another party 2 2 2 2 2 3 6 1 2 2 3 1 2 TOTAL Liberal-Wynne 14 16 18 5 14 9 5 21 11 17 16 11 15 PC-Ford 32 30 38 32 28 32 14 38 41 24 28 31 36 NDP-Horwath 32 35 29 44 31 28 49 23 29 36 39 32 29 Green-Schreiner 5 3 3 2 6 15 8 3 4 6 5 4 5 Another party 2 1 2 2 1 3 5 1 2 2 3 1 2 Not voting 4 4 1 4 8 3 5 4 4 4 2 6 3 Undecided 11 11 11 12 11 10 15 11 9 13 7 15 10 2014 Liberal-Wynne 27 30 31 23 25 19 17 32 27 28 27 22 31 PC-Hudak 26 22 29 29 18 32 13 31 32 20 13 24 33 NDP-Horwath 14 15 12 20 17 8 29 6 12 17 12 16 14 Green-Schreiner 4 2 3 3 3 15 2 3 4 3 2 3 4 Some other party 1 1-1 - 4-1 1 0 1-1 Did not vote 15 19 13 10 21 9 21 17 15 15 32 18 6 Not sure 8 6 6 9 9 9 17 5 5 10 8 8 7 Prefer not to say 5 6 6 5 7 4 2 6 4 7 4 9 4 Page 1
Pollara Ontario June 3-5, 2018 Q8 Q9 How likely to vote... REGION GENDER AGE Ont Ont Ont Toron Metro South South Cent Ont Ont Total to Belt West Cntrl ral North East Men Women18-34 35-54 55+ Total Answering (906) (181) (245) (109) (136) (82) (45) (109) (435) (471) (199) (281) (426) Definitely will vote 59 54 64 65 56 44 56 65 61 57 58 56 61 Probably will vote 10 10 12 7 8 11 13 8 10 10 19 11 5 50-50 5 1 6 6 9 4 5 6 4 7 8 8 2 Probably not 1 2 1 1 3 2-1 2 1 2 2 1 Definitely not 5 5 4 6 8 4 6 3 6 4 3 7 4 Not sure 1 2 1 1 2 1-3 1 2 2 2 0 Already voted 18 26 12 14 13 35 20 14 17 19 8 13 26 Total Will Vote 69 64 76 72 65 55 69 73 71 67 78 67 66 Def/Prob/50-50 74 66 82 79 74 59 74 79 75 74 86 75 68 Total Will Not Vote 6 7 5 7 11 5 6 4 7 5 4 10 5 Will Vote - Not 63 57 71 66 54 50 63 68 64 61 73 58 61 Q10 Q9 Enthusiasm to to vote... & Q11-13 Impression ratings not asked in final wave of tracking survey. Total Answering (623) (114) (168) (74) (89) (60) (40) (79) (309) (314) (155) (195) (273) 10 37 42 33 40 34 44 40 31 42 32 26 31 47 9 7 5 4 11 8 6 6 10 7 6 5 5 9 8 13 13 12 15 12 15 11 13 12 14 18 12 11 7 11 15 12 5 7 12 10 15 13 10 15 13 8 6 5 3 8 3 5 1 2 9 4 6 7 8 3 5 9 8 13 10 8 5 5 9 7 12 8 9 10 4 3 4 1 3 4 1 7 3 3 3 1 4 3 3 2-2 5 2 3 3 5 2 3 4 2 2 2 3 1 6 3 4 1 - - 4 2 6 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 4 6-1 3 2 4 1 0 7 8 6 3 14 8 10 4 5 9 7 10 6 (DK/Ref) 0-1 - - - - - 0 0 1-0 10 37 42 33 40 34 44 40 31 42 32 26 31 47 8-10 57 60 50 66 53 66 56 54 61 52 49 48 67 6-10 73 78 70 74 65 78 69 79 78 68 71 69 77 0-5 27 22 29 26 35 22 31 21 22 32 28 31 22 Mean 7.2 7.5 7.0 7.6 6.5 7.5 6.9 7.4 7.6 6.8 6.7 6.7 7.8 Page 2
Appendix: Regions Defined by Ridings
Appendix: Regions by Ridings 1 of 3 Toronto 905 Metro Belt Beaches-East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke North Etobicoke-Lakeshore Humber River-Black Creek Scarborough Southwest Scarborough-Agincourt Scarborough-Guildwood Scarborough-Rouge Park Spadina-Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto-Danforth Toronto-St. Paul's University-Rosedale Willowdale Ajax Markham-Stouffville Newmarket-Aurora Aurora-Oak Ridges- Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Markham-Thornhill Markham-Unionville Oakville Oakville- North Burlington Brampton East Milton Oshawa Brampton North Mississauga Centre Pickering-Uxbridge Brampton South Mississauga East- Cooksville Richmond Hill Brampton West Mississauga-Erin Mills Thornhill Dufferin-Caledon Mississauga-Lakeshore Vaughan-Woodbridge Durham Mississauga-Malton Wellington-Halton Hills Parkdale-High Park Scarborough Centre York Centre York South-Weston King-Vaughan Mississauga- Streetsville Whitby Scarborough North 11
Appendix: Regions 2 of 3 Southwest Brantford-Brant Cambridge Chatham-Kent-Leamington Elgin-Middlesex-London Essex Huron-Bruce Lambton-Kent-Middlesex London North Centre London West London-Fanshawe Oxford Perth-Wellington Sarnia-Lambton Windsor West Windsor-Tecumseh South Central Burlington Kitchener Centre Flamborough-Glanbrook Kitchener South-Hespeler Guelph Kitchener-Conestoga Haldimand-Norfolk Niagara Centre Hamilton Centre Niagara Falls Hamilton East-Stoney Creek Niagara West Hamilton Mountain St. Catharines Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas Waterloo 12
Appendix: Regions 3 of 3 East Carleton Glengarry-Prescott-Russell Hastings-Lennox and Addington Kanata-Carleton Kingston and the Islands Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Nepean Orléans Ottawa Centre Ottawa South Ottawa West-Nepean Ottawa-Vanier Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry Central Barrie-Innisfil Barrie-Springwater-Oro-Medonte Bay of Quinte Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock Northumberland-Peterborough South Parry Sound-Muskoka Peterborough-Kawartha Simcoe North Simcoe-Grey York-Simcoe North Algoma-Manitoulin Kenora-Rainy River Kiiwetinoong Mushkegowuk-James Bay Nickel Belt Nipissing Sault Ste. Marie Sudbury Thunder Bay-Atikokan Thunder Bay-Superior North Timmins Timiskaming-Cochrane 13
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