Demographic and Economic Trends and Issues Canada, Ontario and the GTA Presented by Tom McCormack The Centre for Spatial Economics www.c4se.com Presented to Professional Marketing Research Society Toronto Chapter January 21, 24 1
Agenda Canada to 231 Economic pressures Immigration implications Demographic implications Consumer spending implications Canada to 211 Golden Horseshoe implications 2
Canada and US Real GDP Growth 1986 to 231 6 5 4 US Blue Canada Red 3 2 1-1 -2 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 3
Canada Real GDP and Employment Growth 1981 to 231 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. Real GDP Growth Productivity Growth Employment Growth 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1... -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 26 211 216 221 226 231 4
Canada s Population 1921 to 231 4,, 8, Population (Left Scale) 35,, 7, Change in Population (Right Scale) 3,, 6, 25,, 5, 2,, 4, 15,, 3, 1,, 2, 5,, 1, 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 5
Quebec and Ontario Total Fertility Rates 1926 to 1999 4,5 4, 3,5 Quebec 3, 2,5 2, Ontario 1,5 1, 5 1926 1931 1936 1941 1946 1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 6
Canada s Births and Deaths 1921 to 231 6, 5, Births Deaths 4, 3, 2, 1, 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 7
Canada s Population Growth by Source 1921 to 231 4, Net Immigration = Immigration - Emigration 3, 2, 1, -1, Net Natural = Births - Deaths -2, 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 21 211 221 231 8
Migrants and the Total Population Percentage Age Distribution in 21 9 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 Males Females Total Population Migrants 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-2. -1.5-1. -.5..5 1. 1.5 2. Source: Statistics Canada 9
Canada s Immigration by Source 1956 to 21 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% Other Africa South America 5% Caribbean 4% 3% 2% US Europe Asia 1% % 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 21 Source: Citizenship and Immigration Canada 1
Visible Minorities in Ontario Percent Share of Total Population in 21 Population VMs VM % Ontario 11,285,55 2,153,45 19.1 Toronto 2,456,85 1,51,125 42.8 Peel 985,565 379,15 38.5 York 725,67 216,13 29.8 Durham 52,95 62,52 12.4 Halton 372,41 32,55 8.7 GTA 5,43,355 1,741,43 34.5 Hamilton 484,385 52,75 1.9 Waterloo 433,875 44,18 1.2 Wellington 184,84 13,76 7.4 Niagara 44,59 17,355 4.3 Brant 116,755 4,95 4.2 Dufferin 5,36 1,615 3.2 Simcoe 372,33 11,365 3.1 Other GH 2,47,135 145,885 7.1 Other Ontario 4,195,6 265,73 6.3 11
Canada s Population by Age and Sex Number in 23 and 213 9+ 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Males 23 213 Females -3, -2, -1, 1, 2, 3, 12
Canada s Population by Age and Sex Number in 21 and 231 9 85 8 75 7 65 Males Females 231 21 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-35, -25, -15, -5, 5, 15, 25, 35, 13
The Typical Target Group 21 as a Percent Share of Total Population 9+ 85 8 75 7 65 Males Females 6 55 5 45 23.6 percent of the population 18. percent of household income 18.6 percent of household spending 4 35 3 25 18 to 34 Years Old 2 15 1 5-3, -25, -2, -15, -1, -5, 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 14
A Larger and More Affluent Target Group 21 as a Percent Share of Total Population 9+ 85 8 75 7 65 6 55 Males Females 5 45 35 to 55 Years Old 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 32.7 percent of the population 56.1 percent of household income 55.5 percent of household spending 5-3, -25, -2, -15, -1, -5, 5, 1, 15, 2, 25, 3, 15
Canadian Persons per Household by Age 21 3.5 3.5 3. 3. 2.5 2.5 2. 2. 1.5 1.5 1. 1..5.5. < 25 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75 +. 16
Canadian Population and Households 1921 to 231 5,, 5. 45,, 4,, Persons per household (right scale) 4.5 4. 35,, 3,, Population (left scale) 3.5 3. 25,, 2,, Households (left scale) 2.5 2. 15,, 1.5 1,, 1. 5,,.5 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 21 211 221 231. 17
Canadian Household Expenditure Growth 21 to 231 Relative growth rates based on aging heads of households Health care 125 Games of chance (net) 121 Reading materials and other printed matter 116 Food 17 Miscellaneous expenditures 12 Personal care 12 Shelter 99 Household operation 99 Transportation 98 Household furnishings and equipment 97 Clothing 95 Tobacco products and alcoholic beverages 93 Recreation 93 Education 73 Index measures projected growth of category spending relative to household growth 18
Canadian Household Expenditure Growth 21 to 231 Relative growth rates based on rising real incomes Recreational, sporting and camping equipment 221 Gross imputed rent 86 Communications 155 Women's, girl's and children's clothing 84 Recreational services 148 Men's and boys' clothing 81 Financial and legal services 14 Motor fuels and lubricants 8 Drugs and pharmaceutical products 137 Purchased transportation 78 Household appliances 136 Non-durable household supplies 77 New and used (net) motor vehicles 19 Gross paid rent 76 Net expenditure abroad 19 Footwear 76 Semi-durable household furnishings 18 Other household services 76 Medical care 16 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 72 Other medical care expenses 16 Alcoholic beverages bought in stores 7 Operating expenses of non-profit organizations 97 Other shelter expenses 67 Education and cultural services 95 Electricity 6 Reading and entertainment supplies 92 Natural gas 6 Restaurants and accommodation services 91 Tobacco products 53 Personal care 89 Hospital care and the like 52 Motor vehicle repairs and parts 89 Domestic and child care services 5 Personal effects n.e.c. 88 Other auto related services 49 Furniture, carpets and other floor coverings 86 Other fuels 47 Index measures projected growth of category spending relative to household income growth 19
Canada s Population by Province Most Populated Provinces: 1971 to 22 13,, 12,, 11,, Ontario 1,, 9,, 8,, Quebec 7,, 6,, 5,, 4,, British Columbia 3,, 2,, 1,, Alberta 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 2
Canada s Population by Province Less Populated Provinces: 1971 to 22 1,2, 1,1, 1,, Manitoba Saskatchewan 9, 8, 7, 6, New Brunswick Nova Scotia Newfoundland & Labrador 5, 4, 3, 2, Prince Edward Island Yukon, Northwest Territories and Nunavut 1, 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 21
Major Urban Areas Population by Province As a Percent Share of Each Province s Total Population 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1.. % Share in 21 Canada Metropolitan areas with populations of 5,+ Nfd PEI NS NB Que Ont Man Sas Alb BC Change in % Share 1981 to 21 1981 21 Ch Canada 67.5 71.9 4.5 Newfoundland 27.3 33.7 6.4 PEI 41.5 43.1 1.7 Nova Scotia 47.3 51.6 4.3 New Brunswick 4.5 44.1 3.7 Quebec 67.6 7.9 3.2 Ontario 79. 81.9 2.9 Manitoba 57.8 6. 2.2 Saskatchewan 36.1 42.8 6.7 Alberta 67.9 7.1 2.2 British Columbia 69.6 74.7 5.1 22
Major Population Agglomerations in Canada 1981 to 21 1981 21 Change 1981 21 Change Canada 24,337, 3,7, 5,67, 1. 1. 1. Golden Horseshoe 4,72, 6,785, 2,65, 19.4 22.6 36.4 BC Lower Mainland 1,393, 2,24, 811, 5.7 7.3 14.3 Montreal 2,95, 3,426, 521, 11.9 11.4 9.2 Calgary 627, 951, 324, 2.6 3.2 5.7 Ottawa-Hull 744, 1,64, 32, 3.1 3.5 5.6 Edmonton 741, 938, 197, 3. 3.1 3.5 Sub-Total 11,13, 15,368, 4,238, 45.7 51.2 74.7 All other Canada 13,27, 14,639, 1,432, 54.3 48.8 25.3 The Golden Horseshoe includes the Census Metropolitan Areas of Toronto, Oshawa, Hamilton, St. Catharines-Niagara and Kitchener, and the Census Agglomerations of Barrie, Guelph and Brantford. The BC Lower Mainland includes the CMAs of Vancouver and Abbotsford, and the Chilliwack CA. Source: Statistics Canada Census Estimates 23
Most Populated Metropolitan Areas Canada and the United States, 199 and 2 Average Average Annual Annual Population Population Absolute Percent 199 2 Change Change New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island 19,567 21,2 163.83 Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County 14,532 16,374 184 1.27 Toronto-Rochester 8,442 9,567 113 1.33 Chicago-Gary-Kenosha 8,24 9,158 92 1.11 Washington-Baltimore 6,726 7,68 88 1.31 San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose 6,278 7,39 76 1.21 Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City 5,893 6,188 3.5 Boston-Worcester-Lawrence 5,456 5,819 36.67 Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint 5,187 5,456 27.52 Dallas-Fort Worth 4,37 5,222 119 2.94 Houston-Galveston-Brazoria 3,731 4,67 94 2.52 Atlanta 2,96 4,112 115 3.89 Miami-Fort Lauderdale 3,193 3,876 68 2.14 Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton 2,97 3,555 59 1.97 Montreal 3,27 3,48 21.64 Phoenix-Mesa 2,328 3,252 92 3.97 Minneapolis-St Paul 2,539 2,969 43 1.69 Cleveland-Akron 2,86 2,946 9.3 San Diego 2,498 2,814 32 1.27 St Louis 2,492 2,64 11.45 Denver-Boulder-Greeley 1,98 2,582 6 3.4 Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater 2,68 2,396 33 1.59 Pittsburgh 2,395 2,359-4 -.15 Portland-Salem 1,793 2,265 47 2.63 Vancouver 1,68 2,61 45 2.82 24
Golden Horseshoe and Other Ontario Employment, Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly 1988 to 23 13 Index 1988 = 1 Monthly data, seasonally adjusted 125 Golden Horseshoe 12 115 Rest of Ontario 11 15 1 95 Last observation December 23 1988 1989 199 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 25
Highway 41 at Keele Street Average Hourly traffic 197 to 2 25, Average Hourly Traffic 2 2, 15, 199 1, 198 197 5, Hour Ending 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2 21 22 23 24 26
Canada Employment and Population 196 to 211 6, 5, Source Population 4, Total Population 3, Labour Force 2, 1, Employment 196 197 198 199 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 27
Golden Horseshoe Population 1976 to 211 18,, 16,, 14,, Other Golden Horseshoe (Canada) 12,, 1,, Greater Toronto Area 8,, 6,, 4,, 2,, 23 1976 1986 1996 26 216 226 236 246 256 266 276 286 296 28
Golden Horseshoe Population 21 to 211 Population OGTA Ont. Fin. 21 231 228 231 7,466,3 1,281,7 1,153,7 Greater Toronto Area 5,322, 7,389,7 7,487,3 7,218,2 Toronto 2,582,8 2,874,8 2,952,5 2,983,2 Durham 521,6 1,33,7 854,1 888,6 York 777,8 1,323,5 1,344,6 1,275,7 Peel 1,53,2 1,524, 1,693, 1,377,8 Halton 386,6 633,7 643,1 692,9 Other Golden Horseshoe 2,144,3 2,794,4 2,935,5 Hamilton 52,5 58,9 61,6 Niagara 425,7 476,8 493,3 Wellington 194,8 255,4 33,4 Waterloo 456,2 66,1 653,4 Brant 127,2 149,4 156, Dufferin 51,3 8,1 86,6 Simcoe 386,6 645,7 641,2 29
Golden Horseshoe Population 21 to 211 Population OGTA Ont. Fin. 21 231 228 231 211 7,466,3 1,281,7 1,153,7 17,, Greater Toronto Area 5,322, 7,389,7 7,487,3 7,218,2 6,8, Toronto 2,582,8 2,874,8 2,952,5 2,983,2 Durham 521,6 1,33,7 854,1 888,6 York 777,8 1,323,5 1,344,6 1,275,7 Peel 1,53,2 1,524, 1,693, 1,377,8 Halton 386,6 633,7 643,1 692,9 Other Golden Horseshoe 2,144,3 2,794,4 2,935,5 1,2, Hamilton 52,5 58,9 61,6 1,511,5 Niagara 425,7 476,8 493,3 1,114, Wellington 194,8 255,4 33,4 1,3,5 Waterloo 456,2 66,1 653,4 2,464, Brant 127,2 149,4 156, 42,4 Dufferin 51,3 8,1 86,6 41,7 Simcoe 386,6 645,7 641,2 2,978,8 3
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