NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolSouthCarolinaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters February2016
How the Survey was Conducted Nature of the Sample: NBC News/WSJ/Marist South Carolina Poll of 2,567 Adults This survey of 2,567 adults was conducted February 15 th through February 17 th, 2016 by The Marist Poll sponsored and funded in partnership with NBC News and The Wall Street Journal. Adults 18 years of age and older residing in the state of South Carolina were interviewed in English by telephone using live interviewers. Landline telephone numbers were randomly selected based upon a list of telephone exchanges from throughout the state of South Carolina from ASDE Survey Sampler, Inc. The exchanges were selected to ensure that each region was represented in proportion to its population. Respondents in the household were randomly selected by first asking for the youngest male. To increase coverage, this landline sample was supplemented by respondents reached through random dialing of cell phone numbers from Survey Sampling International. Both samples were matched by telephone number to a voter registration list for the state. Voter information was appended to each matched case. Assistance was provided by Luce Research for data collection and L2 for voter registration information. After the interviews were completed, the two samples were combined and balanced to reflect the 2013 American Community Survey 5-year estimates for age, gender, income, and region except for race, which is from the 2010 census. Results are statistically significant within ±1.9 percentage points. There are 2,282 registered voters. The results for this subset are statistically significant within ±2.1 percentage points. Among registered voters, 823 had a phone match in the voter file and 1,459 did not. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.4 percentage points and ±2.6 percentage points, respectively. There are 1,227 voters in the potential Republican primary electorate. The potential Republican primary electorate in South Carolina includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Republican presidential primary and those who identify as Republicans or Republican leaning independents without a primary preference. There are 836 voters in the potential Democratic primary electorate. The potential Democratic primary electorate in South Carolina includes all voters who prefer to vote in the Democratic presidential primary and those who identify as Democrats or Democratic leaning independents without a primary preference. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±2.8 percentage points and ±3.4 percentage points, respectively. There are 722 likely Republican primary voters and 425 likely Democratic primary voters defined by a probability turnout model which determines the likelihood respondents will participate in the 2016 South Carolina Republican/Democratic Presidential Primary based upon their chance of vote, interest in the election, and past election participation. The results for these subsets are statistically significant within ±3.6 percentage points and ±4.8 percentage points, respectively. The error margin was not adjusted for sample weights and increases for cross-tabulations. 1
Nature of the Sample - South Carolina South Carolina Adults South Carolina Registered Voters South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters South Carolina Potential Democratic Electorate South Carolina Likely Democratic Primary Voters Party Identification Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran South Carolina Voter Registration List Interview Type South Carolina Adults South Carolina Registered Voters Col % Col % 10 8 10 4 5 2 32% 3 3 1 Democrat n/a 2 Republican n/a 4 Independent n/a 3 Other n/a Very liberal n/a Liberal n/a n/a 3 Conservative n/a 3 Very conservative n/a n/a 2 Men 4 4 Women 52% 5 Under 45 4 4 45 or older 5 5 18 to 29 1 30 to 44 2 2 45 to 59 2 60 or older 2 White 6 6 African American 2 2 Latino Other 2% 2% Upcountry 2 2 Piedmont Central Pee Dee/Waccamaw Low Country 2 2 Less than $50,000 5 5 $50,000 or more 4 4 t college graduate 6 6 College graduate 3 3 Married 5 52% t married 5 4 5 6 4 4 3 3 Practice a Religion 6 6 Does not Practice a Religion 3 3 8 8 Match n/a 3 Match n/a 6 Landline 4 4 Cell Phone 5 5 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Adults. Interviews conducted February 15th through February 17th, 2016, n=2567 MOE +/- 1.9 percentage points. South Carolina Registered Voters: n=2282 MOE +/- 2.1 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. 2
South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters Party Identification Past Participation* Political Ideology Tea Party Supporters Race Household Income Marital Status Evangelical Christian White Evangelical Christians U.S. Military Veteran South Carolina Voter Registration List Interview Type Nature of the Sample - South Carolina South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters Col % Col % 10 5 10 Democrat Republican 72% 7 Independent Other 7 8 2 1 Very liberal Liberal 2 Conservative 4 4 Very conservative 2 3 3 Men 52% 5 Women 4 4 Under 45 4 3 45 or older 6 6 18 to 29 30 to 44 45 to 59 2 2 60 or older 32% 3 White 9 9 African American Latino 2% Other Upcountry 2 3 Piedmont 1 Central Pee Dee/Waccamaw Low Country 2 2 Less than $50,000 42% 3 $50,000 or more 5 6 t college graduate 5 5 College graduate 42% 4 Married 6 t married 3 3 6 6 3 3 5 5 Practice a Religion 72% 7 Does not Practice a Religion 2 1 1 82% 82% Match 3 42% Match 6 5 Landline 5 5 Cell Phone 5 4 NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Potential Republican Electorate. Interviews conducted February 15th through February 17th, 2016, n=1227 MOE +/- 2.8 percentage points. South Carolina Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=722 MOE +/- 3.6 percentage points. Totals may not add to 10 due to rounding. 3
DonaldTrump TedCruz MarcoRubio JebBush JohnKasich BenCarson Other Undecided RepublicanLikelyVoters SouthCarolinaLikely RepublicanPrimaryVoters IntensityofSupport Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently PastParticipation* PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Very conservative Conservative Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters Upcountry Piedmont Central PeeDee/Waccamaw LowCountry HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore tcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried tmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelical Christians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion U.S.MilitaryVeteran SouthCarolinaVoter RegistrationList Match Match InterviewType Landline CelPhone 2 1 1 2 3 1 3 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 42% 2 1 32% 2 3 3 1 1 3 3 2 32% 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 3 1 2 2 3 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 2 2016SouthCarolinaRepublicanpresidentialprimaryincludingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidateorvotedabsentee NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolSouthCarolinaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoters.InterviewsconductedFebruary15ththroughFebruary17th,2016,n=722MOE+/-3.6percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. *PastParticipationreferstoparticipationinapreviousSouthCarolinaRepublicanPresidentialPrimary. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters 4
Wouldyousayyoustronglysupport<candidate>somewhatsupport<candidate>,ordoyouthinkyoumightvotediferentlyonPrimaryDay? Stronglysupport Somewhatsupport Mightvotediferently Unsure RepublicanLikelyVoters SouthCarolinaLikelyRepublicanPrimary VoterswithaCandidatePreference 6 2 DonaldTrump 7 2 TedCruz 6 1 PrimarySupport MarcoRubio 52% 3 JebBush 4 2 Republican 6 PartyIdentification Independent 5 3 4 3 2 Conservative-Veryconservative 6 1 4 3 2 Conservative Veryconservative 7 2 TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters 7 1 1 Upcountry 6 Piedmont 6 2 1 Central 5 PeeDee/Waccamaw 6 LowCountry 5 32% 1 Lessthan$50,000 2% HouseholdIncome $50,000ormore 5 2 tcolegegraduate 6 Colegegraduate 5 3 Under45 5 2 45orolder Men 5 2 Women Maried 6 2 MaritalStatus tmaried 5 2% WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion 6 DoesnotPracticeaReligion 5 2 6 2 U.S.MilitaryVeteran 6 SouthCarolinaVoter RegistrationList Match Match 6 5 1 Landline 6 1 2% InterviewType CelPhone 5 2 NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolSouthCarolinaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreferenceincludingabsentee.InterviewsconductedFebruary15ththroughFebruary17th,2016,n=644MOE+/-3.9percentage points.totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. 5
MarcoRubio TedCruz BenCarson JohnKasich JebBush DonaldTrump Other Undecided RepublicanLikelyVoters SouthCarolinaLikelyRepublicanPrimary VoterswithaCandidatePreference PrimarySupport DonaldTrump TedCruz MarcoRubio JebBush PartyIdentification Republican Independent Conservative-Veryconservative Conservative Veryconservative TeaPartySupport TeaPartySupporters Upcountry Piedmont Central PeeDee/Waccamaw LowCountry HouseholdIncome Lessthan$50,000 $50,000ormore tcolegegraduate Colegegraduate Under45 45orolder Men Women MaritalStatus Maried tmaried WhiteEvangelicalChristians WhiteEvangelicalChristians PracticeaReligion DoesnotPracticeaReligion U.S.MilitaryVeteran SouthCarolinaVoter RegistrationList Match Match InterviewType Landline CelPhone 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 Whoisyoursecondchoiceforthe2016Republicanpresidentialprimary[includingthosewhoareundecidedyetleaningtowardacandidate]? NBCNews/WSJ/MaristPolSouthCarolinaLikelyRepublicanPrimaryVoterswithaCandidatePreference.InterviewsconductedFebruary15ththroughFebruary17th,2016,n=622MOE+/-3.9percentagepoints.Totalsmaynotaddto10 duetorounding. NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll South Carolina Tables of Likely Republican Primary Voters 6