Devolved Immigration Policy: Will it Work in Scotland? by Robert E. Wright Department of Economics Strathclyde Business School University of Strathclyde William Duncan Building 130 Rottenrow Glasgow, G4 0GE November 2006 In early 2005 the then Home Secretary Charles Clarke outlined a five year plan aimed at changing fundamentally the way immigration to the United Kingdom is managed. Central to this plan is the adoption of a points system, where applicants are allotted points for possessing characteristics that make them more employable, such as education, technical skills, work experience, knowledge of the English language, etc. If some threshold level of points is achieved, and if the individual passes medical and security checks, they will be allowed to immigrate to the UK. Although the Government has tended to portray this system as new and novel, it is not. It is essentially the same as was introduced in Canada in 1967 and copied by Australia in 1973. It is worth understanding why Canada introduced such a system almost 40 years ago (and Australia followed shortly afterwards). Prior in time, policy was driven by country of origin preference, with applicants from Europe being allowed to move to the head of the queue. It was felt that such a system was less than optimal for two reasons. The first is that it was clearly racist since for obvious reasons almost all the applicants from Europe were white. The second is that evidence was accumulating 1
that that an increasing proportion of immigrants were not bringing with them the skills needed to accelerate the rapid economic growth that was occurring at the time. With a points system the responsibility of policy shifts from matching jobs to immigrants to matching immigrants to jobs. Such a shift is desirable for a country as a whole, since immigration can be used to strategically fill job vacancies and help plug the skills gap. However, the focus of the points system is on attracting skilled immigrants but demographic trends (particularly in Scotland) imply that both skilled and unskilled workers are needed. Under Mr. Clarke s plan, refugees and asylum-seekers will provide unskilled labour, which is essentially a continuation of the status quo. Will the introduction of this points system lead to lower levels of immigration to the UK? The answer to this question is a clear maybe. It all depends on what level the pass mark is set at, which is simply the minimum number of points needed to be allowed to immigrate. If it is set at a low level, then immigration will increase. If it is set at a high level, then immigration will decrease. For example, Canada lowered its pass mark from 75 to 67 (a sizeable reduction) in order to increase immigration levels and immigration levels have increased. Therefore people who have concluded that the introduction of a points system in the UK will lower immigration levels are clearly wrong. The key question then becomes what will be the pass mark? In order to set this in a sensible manner, immigration targets must be set. It is only after the Government decides how many immigrants it wants to attract can it set the hurdle at the level needed to achieve this number. It is therefore not surprising that the Parliaments of Canada and Australia set annual immigration targets, and the sole responsibility of their immigration services is to deliver the specified number of people. Although Mr. 2
Blair is reluctant to specify targets (or quotas to use the former Conservative leader Michael Howard s jargon), it is something that the Government will have to do if the points system is going to work. Whether Mr. Blair or Mr. Brown or perhaps Mr. Cameron is prepared to make these targets public is another matter. Whether these targets are public or not, my expectation is that the pass mark will be set at a relatively high level which will make the UK an even more difficult country to immigrate to. Al the last General Election all three major political parties have committed themselves to reducing immigration levels if elected. It is about the only thing I can see that they all agreed on: Immigration to the UK is too high. It is not difficult to understand why they made such promises. The bulk of immigrants settle in London and the southeast of England and this is also the part of the country where anti-immigration sentiment is the strongest. It also happens to be the area of the country where General Elections tend to be won or lost, so Labour, the Conservatives and the Lib-Dems were all simply pandering to what for them is the critical segment of the electorate. With these political considerations in mind, it is my view that immigration to the UK will fall dramatically once the points system is up and running. What does all this mean for Scotland? Mr. McConnell has stated that Mr. Clarke s plan and the points system is good for Scotland, although he has not been too clear on why he believes this to be the case. He is however correct when he states that population decline and ageing is Scotland s Number 1 problem. He is equally correct when he argues that increasing immigration to Scotland is one way of attempting to address this problem but it is not the only policy response. The question is then how does one increase immigration to Scotland (as Mr. McConnell wants) yet at the same time reduce immigration to the United Kingdom (as Mr. Blair wants)? 3
At first these policy objectives may appear to be totally incompatible. Immigration policy is set for the UK as a whole by Westminster and any policy that reduces immigration to the UK as a whole will also reduce immigration to Scotland. This will certainly be true unless immigrants to the UK are required to reside in a particular region. However, there is nothing in Mr. Clarke s plan that takes into consideration the different demographic conditions that exist across the UK, and there is certainly no discussion of residence requirements. It is in fact trivial to achieve the goals of increasing immigration to Scotland and at the same time reducing immigration to the UK with a points-based immigration system. Again the government does not need recreate the wheel but simply to borrow more from the immigration system in Canada, where additional or bonus points are allotted to those individuals agreeing to reside in a particular geographic region for a minimum period of time. Regional differences are a key feature of Canadian immigration policy and are reflected in the immigration system. Nine of Canada s ten provinces (and one of its territories) have agreements with the federal government relating to immigration which take into consideration specific provincial (territorial) requirements. Eight have negotiated provincial nominee programmes, which essentially means that applicants with certain skills get more points if they agree to reside in these provinces. The Canada-Quebec Accord goes one step further and essentially devolved responsibility for immigration to the province of Quebec (i.e. potential immigrants apply directly to the Province of Quebec and not the Dominion of Canada). The only province that does not have some sort of agreement with the federal government is Ontario, a province that does not need any help in attracting immigrants, since it has been the main destination of immigrants to Canada over the past few decades. 4
The system proposed by Mr. Clarke could easily be modified along these lines to meet Scotland s needs by allotting more points to applicants who agree to work and live in Scotland (say for a minimum of five years). However, this simple modification will only work if the government is serious about enforcing the terms of the residence requirement. Since a deal is a deal, they have be prepared to as a last resort deport those who fail to live up to the agreement. Given, Mr. Clarke has promised to be harder on refugees and asylum seekers in terms of enforcing deportation orders, this does not seem to be a massive leap forward in policy. As it stands at the moment, there is absolutely nothing in the proposed points system that will make it easier for the Scottish Executive to deliver on its promise of reversing Scotland s population decline. There is nothing in it that will attract people to Scotland. The Government s promise of reducing immigration to the UK will also reduce immigration to Scotland. Although the Fresh Talent Initiative is a positive policy development, it will not by itself attract the type of people in sufficient numbers that Scotland needs but that is a different story. 5
Figure 1 Total Fertility Rate Scotland, 1945-2005 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 Live births per woman 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.8 Replacement level = 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.2 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year Figure 2 Life Expectancy at Birth Scotland, 1950-2005 85 80 Number of years 75 70 65 Men Women 60 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Year 6
Figure 3 Net Migration Scotland, 1950-2005 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Number of people 10,000 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005-10,000-20,000-30,000-40,000-50,000 Year 5,300,000 Figure 4 Population Size Scotland, 1950-2051 (Various GAD Projections) 5,200,000 5,100,000 5,000,000 Number of people 4,900,000 4,800,000 Principal projection Zero net-migration 4,700,000 4.5 milllion 5 million 4,600,000 4,500,000 4,400,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year 7
Figure 5 Births and Deaths Scotland, 1950-2051 (GAD Prinicpal Projection) 115,000 105,000 95,000 Number of births and deaths 85,000 75,000 65,000 Births Deaths 55,000 45,000 35,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year Figure 6 Number of People Aged 20-64 Scotland, 1950-2051 (GAD Principal Projection) 3,200,000 3,100,000 3,000,000 2,900,000 2,800,000 Number of people 2,700,000 2,600,000 2,500,000 2,400,000 2,300,000 2,200,000 2,100,000 2,000,000 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year 8
Table 1 Classes of Immigrants Canada, 2006 (1) Skilled Worker Class Immigration: Canada values the skills and experiences that foreign professionals and workers bring with them. Check to see if your skills and experience qualify you to come to Canada as a skilled worker. (2) Business Class Immigration: Canada has a strong economic culture. If you have experience running or investing in businesses, you may qualify to come to Canada as a business immigrant. (3) Provincial Nomination: Most Canadian provinces have programs that encourage immigrants to settle in those provinces and benefit their economies. Learn about settling in one of Canada s provinces as a provincial nominee. (4) Family Class Immigration: Family class immigration reunites families in Canadian homes. Learn how to sponsor your family member or come to Canada as a member of the family class. (5) International Adoption: Adopting children from abroad can be a long process. This is to protect children s rights. Learn about what you need to do to bring an adoptive child to Canada. (6) Quebec-Selected Immigration: Quebec is responsible for selecting immigrants who wish to settle in Quebec. Find out how to apply to be selected to settle in Quebec. 9
Table 2 Provincial Immigration Agreements Canada, 2005 Quebec: The Canada-Quebec Accord was signed in 1991 British Columbia: An agreement signed in 1998 gave the province responsibility and funding for settlement and integration services, a greater role in immigration planning and policy, and a provincial nominee program. It also established a pilot project to attract business immigrants. In 2001, the B.C. government--in partnership with the Canadian government and professional organizations--launched a pilot project to help foreign professionals work in their field in B.C. Saskatchewan: A 1999 agreement established a provincial nominee program. Manitoba: The Settlement Services Agreement, signed in 1999, made it simpler to administer such settlement services as orientation, language training and labour market access. The parties also signed a provincial nominee agreement, which was expanded in 2002. New Brunswick: A provincial nominee agreement was signed in 1999. Newfoundland and Labrador: A 1999 agreement established a five-year provincial nominee program. Yukon: An agreement signed in 2001 gave the territory a role in immigration planning and integration, and established a territorial nominee program. Prince Edward Island: An agreement signed in 2001 covers a range of immigration issues, including planning and integration, and established a five-year provincial nominee program. Alberta: A 2002 agreement established a two-year provincial nominee program. Nova Scotia: A provincial nominee agreement established in 2002. 10
Table 3 Maximum Points Canada and Quebec Immigration System Item: Canada Quebec Education 25 11 Employment Experience 21 10 Arranged Employment 10 15 Age 10 10 Language: 24 24 English 16 (8) 6 French 8 (16) 18 Adaptability 10 10 Total 100 80 11
Table 4 Immigration Targets and Levels Canada, 2002-2007 Immigrants Year Immigration Target All Economic Class 1996 195,000-220,000 223,769 124,528 1997 195,000-220,000 214,294 127,613 1998 200,000-225,000 173,055 97,456 1999 200,000-225,000 189,745 109,131 2000 200,000-225,000 227,415 136,267 2001 200,000-225,000 250,599 155,686 2002 210,000-235,000 229,014 137,839 2003 220,000-245,000 221,340 121,039 2004 220,000-245,000 235,823 133,745 2005 220,000-245,000 262,228 156,310 2006 225,000-255,000 -- -- 2007 240,000-265,000 -- -- 12