Parties and Politics 1 Wednesday, March 7 th Final version of Essay 1 version due in lab tomorrow or Friday Film #2: Glory on Wednesday, March 14 th and Thursday, March 15 th in 140 JSB at 5:00 and 7:30 pm Midterm #2: March 19-20 in the Testing Center Monday and Tuesday: No late fee Wednesday: $5 late fee Thursday: $7 late fee and test must be in hand by 11 am
Parties and Politics 2 PARTIES AND POLITICS INCENTIVES MATTER
Parties and Politics 3 Structure and Politics Politics in the U.S. (2012) Republicans Democrats Independents Senate 47 51 2 House 242 192 0* President (Democrat) elected separately * 1 vacancy
Parties and Politics 4 Structure and Politics Current (18 th ) Knesset in Israel (2009 election) Party % of votes # seats Kadima 23 28 Likud 22 27 Yisrael Beiteinu 12 15 Labor Party 10 13 Shas 9 11 United Torah Judaism 5 5 United Arab List-Ta al 4 4 National Union 4 4 Hadash 4 4 New Movement-Meretz 3 3 The Jewish Home 3 3 Balad 3 3
Parties and Politics 5 Video: Israel Knesset How did Netanyahu get a large enough coalition to form a government and become Prime Minister?
Parties and Politics 6 Structure and Politics What explains the stark difference in party makeup? Constitutional structure: proportional representation versus single representative districts. Lesson: Structure matters for politics.
Parties and Politics 7 Outline Parties and Politics Rise of political parties Structure and politics Two-party system Centrism
iclicker Assume that there is a highly organized group of youth amounting to 20% of the population in a particular nation. In which kind of party system would this group be more likely to win seats in the national legislature? A. A winner-take-all system, such as the U.S. B. A proportional representation system, such as the one in Israel. C. Equally likely for both. D. This group would not win any seats under either system.
Parties and Politics 9 Rise of Political Parties Founders did not anticipate development of political parties Saw them as potentially dangerous factions
Parties and Politics 10 Rise of Political Parties Let me now take a more comprehensive view, and warn you in the most solemn manner against the baneful effects of the spirit of party generally. Washington s Farewell Address I never submitted the whole system of my opinions to the creed of any party... in politics or anything else.... Such an addiction, is the last degradation of a free and moral agent. If I could not go to heaven but with a party, I would not go there at all. Thomas Jefferson
Parties and Politics 11 Fathers of the Two-Party System
Parties and Politics 12 Rise of Political Parties Jeffersonians Democratic-Republicans State and local government Rural America Strict constructionist v. Hamiltonians Federalists Strong central government Big cities Loose interpretation
Parties and Politics 13 Rise of Political Parties Elections of 1796 and 1800: John Adams: Federalist Thomas Jefferson: Democratic- Republican Adams won by a small margin in 1796; Jefferson in 1800 Beginning of political parties
Parties and Politics 14 Structure and Politics What should we assume about human nature in politics? Politicians Should we expect the same blend of selfinterest and virtue from them as we would from others? Voters Does virtue control our voting?
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Parties and Politics 16 Structure and Politics U.S. political structure: Single representative districts for house and senate Independent election of President through electoral college Winner take all rule; plurality Fixed times for elections No structural privileges for parties
Parties and Politics 17 Structure and Politics How Votes are Counted in the U.S. system: 30% 25% B C A 45% If party A gets 45% of the vote, how much influence do B and C have? Winner takes all! [What happens under proportional representation?]
Parties and Politics 18 Structure and Politics Implications of U.S. structure: Pushes politics toward two large parties Senators and representatives maintain considerable independence from the President and their party leaders Candidates position themselves in the middle of the distribution of voter preferences
Parties and Politics 19 Typical Presidential Election Run to the middle of the party during the primaries Then move to the middle of all voters in the election liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative
Parties and Politics 20 liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative
Parties and Politics 21 Video: Dance to the Middle A little fatherly advice.
Parties and Politics 22 Video: Obama to the Middle 2008 Elections. Why did Barak Obama move to the middle in the general election?
Parties and Politics 23 liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 1960 John Kennedy 49.7% 305 Richard Nixon 49.6% 219
Parties and Politics 24 liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 2000 Albert Gore 48.4% 266 George Bush 47.9% 271
Parties and Politics 25 liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 2004 John Kerry 48.3% 251 George Bush 50.7% 286
Parties and Politics 26 liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 2008 Barak Obama 52.9% 365 John McCain 45.7% 173
Parties and Politics 27 Structure and Politics Implications of U.S. structure: Pushes politics toward two large parties Senators and representatives maintain considerable independence from the President and their party leaders Candidates position themselves in the middle of the distribution of voter preferences Try to position opponent as extremist
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Parties and Politics 29 Video: Romney and McCain Running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2008. Romney says McCain is out of the mainstream
Parties and Politics 30 Elections with 1 candidate perceived as extreme liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 1964 Lyndon Johnson 61% 486 Barry Goldwater 38% 52
Parties and Politics 31 Elections with 1 candidate perceived as extreme liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 1972 G. McGovern 38% 17 R. Nixon 61% 520
Parties and Politics 32 Elections with 1 candidate perceived as extreme liberal ¼ ½ ¼ conservative Year Democrat Republican 1984 Walter Mondale 41% 13 Ronald Reagan 59% 525
Parties and Politics 33 Effective third party candidacies may affect elections if they draw votes from only one major party. 1912 T. Roosevelt s Bull Moose Party split the Republican vote 1992 Ross Perot may have pushed some electoral votes to Clinton 2000 Ralph Nader probably cost Gore the Florida electoral votes
Parties and Politics 34 Incentives against effective third parties in the U.S. Little chance of electing any representatives No role in picking the executive No opportunity for coalition blackmail. Incentive to join one of the major parties. Conclusion: U.S. system forms coalitions of voters before elections not after.
Parties and Politics 35 Structure and Politics Implications of Structure for Campaigns Campaigns are usually quite superficial emphasis on personalities and ads rather than real issues Issue differences are small, but are magnified by candidates. Lately, differences between the parties on social issues are greatest. Only the presidential campaign is consistently national; senators and representatives run locally.
Parties and Politics 36 Structure and Politics Implications of Structure for Government Few major shifts in policy. Party discipline is weak compared to most other countries. Party in power, especially the presidency, is punished if things go badly.
Why should we make an informed vote? There is a small probability that your vote will decide an election. Voting is an essential feature of popular government. By voting, you formally give consent. By not voting, you indicate that consent is not important. Informed voting is an act of virtue. Accumulated acts of virtue can be very powerful.