Immigration as a Strategy for Population Growth Presentation Outline

Immigration as a Strategy for Population Growth Presentation Outline by Joseph Garcea Saskatoon June 5, 2003 1. Introduction 3 2. Reflections on Doubling Size of Population 4 3. Reflections on Increasing Size of Population 5 4. Reflections on Optimal Size of Population 6 5. Reflections on Immigration vs. Other Means of Increasing Population 7 6. Reflections on Relationship of Immigration and the Economy 8 7. Reflections on Preferences for Demographic Profile of Immigration 9 8. Past & Present Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan 10 9. Size of Future Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan 11-13 10. Nature of Future Immigration Flows 14 11. 6 Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants 15-17 12. Other Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants 18-21 13. Models for Saskatchewan to Emulate 22 14. Windows of Opportunity for Increasing Immigration 23 14. Conclusions 24 APPENDIX 25-38 1 2 Introduction The five objectives of this presentation are to: 1. Reflect on the merits and means of doubling Saskatchewan s population. 2. Reflect on relative value of immigration vs. other means by which to increase Saskatchewan s population. 3. Provide overview of immigration flows to Saskatchewan in the recent past. 4. Provide some suggestions regarding desirable & realistic immigration flows for Saskatchewan in the future. 5. Provide suggestions on how to achieve desired and realistic immigration flows for Saskatchewan in the future. Reflections on Doubling Size of Population The objective of this symposium is to consider how we can double the province s population within the next few decades. What is not clear is the timeframe for achieving that objective. Is that a realistic objective either by 2050 or even by 2100? Or do we have to wait until as the song goes In The Year 2525? Current projections by Statistics Canada indicate a population of 1.5 million by approximately 2050. To achieve the objective of doubling the population by that time at least several of the following things would have to happen in Saskatchewan: We find natural resources that produce a massive economic boom. We establish a tax and public service regime that would make this province a highly attractive place in which to conduct business and live. We are willing to throw the province s doors wide open to massive immigration flows from around the world. We introduce incentives for immigrants to come and remain in Saskatchewan. We introduce restrictions for immigrants to remain in Saskatchewan. We find the means to sustain the high birth rate in the Aboriginal sector. We find the means to increase the birth rate in the Non-Aboriginal sector. 3 4 Reflections on Increasing Size of Population Reflections on Optimal Size of Population Do We Really Want to Increase Saskatchewan s Population? Why do we want to increase it? Political Power Imperatives? Economic Development Imperatives? Both of the Above? Would we be better off to maintain or even reduce the current population size? Would we be better off consolidating the population into the largest urban centres, rather than increasing, the population? Should we do both (i.e., increase and consolidate)? No one knows what the optimal size is for Saskatchewan s population. All we know is that the size of the population both in absolute and in relative terms is important for at least three interrelated reasons: 1. The critical mass required for political power within the Canadian federation. 2. The critical mass required for economic power within the Canadian and North American economy. 3. Critical mass required to provide a tax base needed to pay for infrastructure and public services. 5 6 1

Reflections on Immigration vs. Other Means of Increasing Population Do we really want to increase the size of the province s population through immigration? If so, would immigration be the primary means or a secondary means of increasing the size of the population? Why? What are the alternatives to immigration as a means of increasing our population? Which of the following alternatives for increasing the population do we prefer? Stemming the out-migration of people of all ages. Increasing the overall birth rate. Sustaining the relatively higher birthrate in the Aboriginal sector. Increasing internal migration from other parts of Canada. Prolonging life. (Just kidding!) 7 Reflections on Relationship of Immigration and the Economy In considering the relationship between immigration and population growth we also have to consider the relationship between immigration and the economy. We have chicken and egg situation here. The crucial question is: What comes first, immigration or economic development and ample employment opportunities both for established population and for new immigrants? The prudent answer is that increased immigration and economic development have to be undertaken in tandem so that they consonant rather conflicting and that they have a mutually reinforcing positive effect on each other. You cannot expect immigrants to go where there are no jobs. The question is whether you can expect certain types of immigrants to create jobs both for themselves and for others. That is essentially what the Business immigrant program was designed to do. The success with that program can best be described as mixed. There have been a few success stories, but there are horror stories in Saskatchewan as in other provinces. 8 Reflections on Preferences for Demographic Profile of Immigration Past & Present Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan Do we have preferences regarding the demographic profile of immigration flows? Do we have preferences on any of the following demographic facets of immigration flows? The age profile The educational profile The occupational profile The linguistic profile The racial profile (Aboriginal, European, Asian, African, etc.?) The more open we are to each of those demographic issues, the easier it will be for Saskatchewan to attract and retain a higher number of immigrants and refugees. The data contained in the APPENDIX reveal several key features regarding past and present immigrations flows to Saskatchewan including: Every 4-5 years Canada receives approximately the same number of immigrants as Saskatchewan s entire population. The relatively low number and percentage of immigrants destined to Saskatchewan as compared to other provinces. The relatively low number and percentage of immigrants who stay in Saskatchewan. The relatively low number of immigrants received under the Provincial Nominee Program. Approximately 72% of immigrants to Saskatchewan come from Europe and the U.S., only 28% come from Asia & Africa Saskatchewan (28%)has a lower proportion of visible minorities than either Alberta (42.2%) and Manitoba (36.6%). The level of education among new immigrants is comparable to that of the general population. 9 10 Size of Future Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan (1) Size of Future Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan (2) There are three options open to Saskatchewan in terms of the size of immigration flows. 1. Maintain the current size. 2. Decrease the current size. 3. Increase the current size. If the goal is to increase the size of the immigration flows, neither of the first two options is prudent or productive. This is particularly true of the option to decrease the current size of immigration flows. The prudent and positive option is to increase it. The $64K question is obviously by how much it should be increased. What should happen to the size of immigration flows in the near and distant future? The prudent answer is that the size of immigration flows to Saskatchewan must be carefully calibrated with the economic and social absorptive capacity of the province. Too many immigrants coming into an economy with high unemployment and low prospects for an economic boom is likely to create economic and social problems. The social problems would likely be exacerbated if a substantial number of those immigrants were members of visible minorities who were highly concentrated in highly visible so-called ethnic enclaves in various communities. The calibration of immigration and economic and social absorptive capacity would have to be performed very carefully to ensure that such problems were precluded or at least minimized. 11 12 2

Size of Future Immigration Flows to Saskatchewan (3) Nature of Future Immigration Flows Fact: Currently we receive approximately 1,500-2000 immigrants & refugees per year. Of those only 750-1000 stay in the province. Questions: Should we double the amount we receive to 3,000-4000 with the hope that we can retain 1,500-2,000? Should we quadruple the amount we receive to 6,000-8,000 with the hope that we can retain 3,000-4,000? Should we increase the amount we receive sixfold to 9,000-12,000 with the hope that we can retain 4,500-6,000? Should we consider even higher numbers? If so, what should they be? Do we have preferences regarding types of immigrants or refugees? Do we have preferences on any of the following demographic matters? The age profile of immigration flows. The educational profile of immigration flows. The linguistic profile of immigration flows. The racial profile of immigration flows. The more open we are to each of those demographic matters, the easier it will be for us to attract and retain a higher number of immigrants and refugees? 13 14 6 Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(1) 6 Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(3) There are no mysteries regarding what will help to attract and retain immigrants to Saskatchewan. An excellent report produced by the immigration unit in Saskatchewan Government Relations and Aboriginal Affairs based on a survey of immigrants and consultations with numerous persons involved with or knowledgeable of the immigration sector confirmed what is becoming conventional wisdom. That report suggests that there are at least 6 sets of things which we must do better. These might be referred as the 6 pillars of a good provincial immigration plan. The 6 pillars do not just depend on the government doing the right thing. They depend on all sectors and members of our province doing the right thing. 15 1. Better Immigration Policy Improve the provincial immigration policy. Adopt and implement a more purposeful and proactive provincial immigration policy. 2. Better Immigration Recruitment Strategy Improve the provincial immigration recruitment strategy. Establish a more purposeful and proactive provincial immigrant and refugee recruitment strategy. The current Provincial Nominee Program which provides the provincial government to nominate 150 immigrants per year is simply inadequate. The actual number of nominees in 2001 was 41. By contrast Manitoba had 972. The Saskatchewan number should be much higher and more businesses and organizations should recruit needed skilled employees through that program. 3. Better Settlement & Support Services Improve settlement services upon arrival. Improve access to language training. Improve essential support services such as adequate housing, transportation and childcare. Improve information-sharing, co-operation and program and service delivery coordination among governments, service providers and communities. 16 6 Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(2) Other Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(1) 4. Better Employment/Career Opportunities This is the most critical factor to attracting and retaining immigrants and refugees. To assist immigrants and refugees with employment/career opportunities we should Improve employment/career opportunities for existing and prospective immigrants. Improve the recognition (and if necessary the upgrading) of foreign credentials for various professionals and technicians. Improve mentorship initiatives. 5. Better Access to Education and Training Improve access to Post-secondary education both for immigrants and their children. Improve access to Technical and Professional/Training Programs for immigrants & their children. Improve access to our universities and colleges for foreign students and facilitating their stay or return to Saskatchewan upon completing their studies. 6. Better Welcoming Community Successful settlement and retention requires a welcoming community. Improve the quality of receptivity and respect for immigrants and refugees. Improve connections among newcomers to create social support networks. 17 I would add a few other requirements to that list of things to do to attract and retain the optimal size and nature of immigration flows 1. First Requirement: (Proper Policies) Coherent & Complimentary Policies 1. Population Policy 2. Immigration Policy 3. Economic Development Policy 4. Social Development Policy 5. Education & Training Policy 6. Aboriginal Policy 2. Second Requirement: (Proper Organization) Proper Organizational Infrastructure for Immigration & Integration needed for effective policy development and programming 3. Third Requirement (Good Educational & Training Infrastructure) Research reveals that access to educational & training institutions is absolutely essential for attracting and retaining immigrants. (Employment and welcoming community are the other major factors) 4. Fourth Requirement: (Time to Walk the Talk) Time to Walk the talk on Training Time to Walk the Talk on Mentorship Time to Walk the Talk of Professional Certification 18 3

Other Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(2) 5. Fifth Requirement: (Balanced Approach) The fifth requirement is a balanced approach. More specifically, it requires the balancing of policies and programs to improve economic and social conditions for existing residents in Canada either before or at the same time as developing policies and programs related to immigration and integration. To ensure that regions benefit from immigration and refugee flows and to ensure that immigrants and refugees benefit from coming to Canada, it is imperative to ensure that the existing population in this country is experiencing positive economic and social conditions. This includes three components of the population: Aboriginal Canadians Non-Aboriginal Canadians Prospective Canadians [New or Recent Immigrants & Refugees) If those three groups are not experiencing positive economic and social conditions, the legitimacy of any initiatives designed to attract and retain immigrants and refugees to Saskatchewan is likely to face substantial questions, criticism and legitimacy problems. 19 Other Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(3) Questions and criticisms will persist on whether it makes sense to focus on bringing either trained or untrained immigrants and refugees to certain regions when there are people in this country who are under-trained and under-employed. How does one respond to the question of why are we searching outside this country either for trained or trainable people, when we have a surplus of trained or at least trainable people in this province and in this country? The foregoing is not a hypothetical scenario; this has been and remains a strong and problematic critique of immigration and refugee intake in this province and in this country. The challenge for Saskatchewan is to provide adequate employment opportunities both for those who want to stay and those who want to come here. 20 Other Means for Attracting & Retaining Immigrants(4) Models For Saskatchewan to Emulate The best way to respond to that critique is by doing everything possible to produce positive economic and social conditions for all types of Canadians (Aboriginal, Non-Aboriginal, and Prospective). Such critiques should not be used as an excuse or rationale to abandon or slowdown our commitment to the intake of immigrants and refugees; instead they should be used as a motivator to work as efficiently and effectively at improving economic and social conditions for all in this country. Immigration and refugee flows should neither be, nor be seen to be, detrimental to those who are already in Canada. The important point being made here is that it is difficult to design and implement a positive immigration policy and program, without designing and implementing policies and programs designed to create positive economic and social conditions for those who are already here. In effect this is a reminder that effective immigration and refugee policies cannot be designed and instituted without giving serious attention to the design and implementation of truly efficacious economic and social development policies that create positive and economic conditions in this country. There is no denying that all of this is easier said than done; but every effort must be made to do these things as effectively as possible. 21 There are three alternative models open to Saskatchewan in dealing with immigration and integration. 1. Quebec Model Highly Developed Organizational, Policy and Program Framework. Extensive Human and Financial Resources. 2. Manitoba Model Moderately Developed Organizational, Policy and Program Framework which includes a large unit within the government and an immigration council. Moderate Human and Financial Resources. Winnipeg has agreement with Immigrant Sponsoring Agencies to cover the cost of the financial Guarantees that are required for sponsorship. Goal of 10,000 Immigrants per year. 3. Hybrid Quebec-Manitoba Model This is a hybrid of the other two models. It fits somewhere between the two. Saskatchewan should strive at least for the Manitoba model but, if it truly serious about increasing immigration it should consider moving a bit beyond it toward the Quebec model. 22 Windows of Opportunity For Increasing Immigration Conclusions Are There Windows of Opportunity for Recruiting, Receiving & Retaining Immigrants? 1. The Federal Regionalization of Immigration Initiative The major window of opportunity which exists today is hat the current federal minister of immigration is committed to a strategy of regionalization of immigration. The central objective of that strategy is to shift some of the immigration from the 3 metropolitan centres to the so-called second-tier and third-tier urban centres such as the largest cities in Saskatchewan. The means by which to do this would be to treat immigrants and contractual temporary workers who would sign a contract that they would live and work within a particular region of Canada for at least three to five years. If they complied with that requirement they would be able to receive landed immigrant status and then be free to move to anywhere in Canada. Some strongly support this strategy and others strongly oppose it. Two weeks ago a Parliamentary Committee told the Minister that he should consider abandoning efforts to implement such an immigration strategy because it contravenes the Charter of Rights and Freedoms in light of the mobility rights guaranteed therein. 2. The Public Concern with the Future of Saskatchewan The other major window of opportunity is being provided by the existing consensus that there we need to become more proactive and creative in dealing with our economic and population problems. This consensus is mot evident among leaders in the local business communities. As explained below, there is also some concern with the prospect of increasing immigration given the current job market and little evidence that it is likely to improve substantially in the near future. 1. Saskatchewan has some important choices to make regarding the role of immigration as a means to increasing, or at least sustaining the size of the provincial population. 2. For immigration to make a substantial improvement to the size of the provincial population the annual immigration flows would have to be increasing substantially from where they have been in recent years. 3. Substantial efforts would also be required to increase the retention rate of immigrants. 4. All of this will require new policies, programs organizational frameworks and resources. 5. All of this will also require a coordinated effort between the governmental, business and voluntary sector. 6. Finally, all of this will require that we balance efforts to improve the recruitment, selection and integration of immigrants, with efforts to create improve educational, training and employment opportunities for all other residents both in the Aboriginal and non-aboriginal sector. 7. We have a choice to make: We all move ahead together in this province, or We will all be moving out together from this province. 23 24 4

Immigration to Prairie Provinces Appendix Data and Statistics on Immigration Trends in Saskatchewan, the Prairies and Canada. 25 Historical immigration to the Prairies by province of destination. 1956-1998. Source: Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and Integration, 2000. 26 Immigration to Canada by Province Immigration to Saskatchewan Compared to Other Small Provinces Province 1998 1999 2000 Province 1998 1999 2000 BC 35,968 36,055 37,319 QC 26,532 29,104 32,380 AB 11,184 12,062 14,269 NS 2,051 1,605 1,592 SK 1,569 1,725 1,872 NB 729 663 755 MB 2,981 3,698 4,610 PEI 136 137 138 ONT 92,279 104,018 133,512 NFLD 395 422 412 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 27 Source: Statistics Canada, 2001 28 Distribution of Immigration to Saskatchewan Destinations, 1991 Immigration to Canada under Provincial Nominee Program Saskatoon 26.8% Regina 24.9% Other Destinations 58.3% Provincial Nominees Accepted in 2001 by Province BC AB SK MB ON QC NB NS NFLD 22 19 41 972 96 6 71 11 36 Source: Statistics Canada, 1997 29 Source: Citizenship & Immigration Canada, 2002 30 5

Retention of Immigrants In-Migration of Canadians to Saskatchewan Approximately 50% of immigrants and refugees arriving in Saskatchewan between 1980-1997 have left the province by 1998. Source: Meeting Needs and Making Connections, Saskatchewan Government Relations & Aboriginal Affairs, Nov. 2002. Source: Atlas of Saskatchewan, University of Saskatchewan, 2000. 31 32 Out-Migration of Canadians from Saskatchewan Out-migration of Saskatchewan Citizens Source: Atlas of Saskatchewan, University of Saskatchewan, 2000. 33 Source: SaskTrends Monitor, 2001. 34 Immigration to Prairie Provinces by Type of Immigrant Immigration to Saskatchewan Destinations by Place of Birth Source: Prairie Centre of Excellence for Research on Immigration and Integration, 2000. 35 Saskatchewan Regina/Saskatoon United States 14.9% 10.9% Europe 52.7% 46.9% United Kingdom 17.9% 16.1% Asia 23.7% 32.3% People's Republic of China 5.5% 7.2% Hong Kong 3.6% 4.3% Africa 4.2% 5.5% C/S America and Caribbean 4.0% 3.8% Other 0.6% 0.6% 55,404 33,372 Source: 1996 Census of Canada, Statistics Canada, 1998 36 6

Comparison of Prairie Provinces Visible Minority Population Level of Education Among Saskatchewan Citizens Alberta visible minority % visible minority population Saskatchewan visible minority % visible minority population Manitoba visible minority Non Visible Minority % visible minority population Immigrants 174,024 42.2% 412,344 15,336 28.3% 54,180 50,904 88,056 36.6% 138,960 Canadian-born 86,832 4.1% 2,125,044 9,144 1.1% 812,808 26,820 801,216 3.2% 828,036 37 No high school High school only Some postsecondary Trades postsecondary certificate University postsecondary completed Canada 42.7% 10.9% 10.0% 20.6% 15.8% 36.4% 692,496 USA 36.2% 7.1% 7.6% 13.8% 35.2% 49.0% 7,560 Europe 48.3% 7.0% 6.0% 20.2% 16.9% 37.1% 28,296 Middle East 13.6% 4.5% 18.2% 9.1% 54.5% 63.6% 792 Southeast Asia 36.1% 9.5% 14.8% 6.9% 32.8% 39.7% 10,980 C/S America 23.1% 5.8% 11.5% 21.1% 38.5% 59.6% 1,872 Immigrants 41.2% 7.4% 8.7% 17.0% 25.7% 42.7% 51,804 38 7