OECD WORK ON GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND TRADE IN VALUE ADDED Koen De Backer COMPNET meeting, Dublin, 13 March 2013
Global Value Chains case studies Wing box: Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (Japan) Wing ice protection: GKN Aerospace (UK) Vertical Stabiliser: Boeing Commercial Airplanes (USA) Centre fuselage: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy) Rear fuselage: Boeing South Carolina (USA) Lavatories: Jamco (Japan) Doors & windows: Zodiac Aerospace (USA) PPG Aerospace (USA) Forward fuselage: Kawasaki Heavy Industries (Japan) Spirit Aerosystems (USA) Escape slides: Air Cruisers (USA) Flight deck seats: Ipeco (UK) Raked wing tips: Korean Airlines Aerospace division (Korea) Horizontal Stabiliser: Alenia Aeronautica (Italy) Aux. power unit: Hamilton Sundstrand (USA) Passenger doors: Latécoère Aéroservices (France) Cargo doors: Saab (Sweden) Prepreg composites: Toray (Japan) Centre wing box: Fuji Heavy Industries (Japan) Landing gear: Messier-Dowti (France) Electric brakes: Messier-Bugatti (France) Tires: Bridgestone Tires (Japan) Engines: GE Engines (USA), Rolls Royce (UK) Engine nacelles: Goodrich (USA) Tools/Software: Dassault Systemes (France) Navigation: Honeywell (USA) Pilot control system: Rockwell Colins (USA) Wiring: Safran (France) Final assembly: Boeing Commercial Airplanes (USA) 2 Source: Rivoli (2005), WTO (1998), Feenstra (1998), www.newairplane.com, Linden et al. (2009)
What does the OECD work add? Large literature on GVCs Rather conceptual Rather focused on developing economies GVCs are not new started already in the 1960s Size, scale and complexity of GVCs are new OECD work on measuring GVCs Trade in Value Added OECD work on GVC policies: so what question? 3
OECD work on Trade in Value Added(1) Final consumption Final assembly 1 5 4 6 2 Trade in inputs (first tier suppliers) 3 Trade in inputs (second tier suppliers) 7 4
OECD work on Trade in Value Added (2) Final consumption Final assembly 1 Decomposition of gross exports 5 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Value added by second tier suppliers Value added by first tier suppliers Value added in the country of final production 2 Trade in inputs (first tier suppliers) 3 4 6 Trade in inputs (second tier suppliers) 7 5
OECD work on Trade in Value Added (3) Global Input-Output Model: national IO tables linked by bilateral trade statistics Official statistics making it mainstream work Large and growing coverage 57 countries > 95% of GDP, > 90% of world trade China; processing and non-processing trade First release (of results) on 16 January 2013 new release during OECD Ministerial Meeting (May 2013) Trade flows in value added and applied indicators Further work: employment and skills, income, firm heterogeneity 6
Foreign value added of exports, OECD economies 2008 1995 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7
Foreign value added of exports, non-oecd economies 2008 1995 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8
Intermediate imports embodied in exports (% of total intermediate imports) 100 75 Total Transport Equipment Electronics 50 25 0 United States Japan Mexico Germany China Korea Czech Republic Hungary 9
Foreign value-added in exports by country of origin
www.oecd.org/trade/valueadded
OECD work on GVC policy Border policies and behind the border policies Trade and investment policy Economic development Competitiveness and knowledge based assets Global systemic risk resilience 12
Effectiveness of industrial policy at the national level? Foreign value added content in final demand in % of GDP Imported intermediates in % of production Slovak Rep. Ireland Hungary Estonia Luxembourg Slovenia Belgium Czech Rep. Poland Iceland Portugal Austria Korea Greece Chile Switzerland Denmark Sweden Canada Finland United Kingdom South Africa Netherlands Norway New Zealand Israel Mexico Germany India Turkey Indonesia France Spain Russian Fed. Italy Australia China United States Japan Brazil 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Luxembourg Ireland Estonia Belgium Slovak Republic Czech Republic Netherlands Israel Latvia Austria Hungary Denmark Portugal Sweden Slovenia Switzerland Canada Finland Norway Mexico Korea Indonesia United Kingdom New Zealand Chile Greece Italy Germany France Spain Russian Federation Turkey Poland South Africa Australia China India United States Brazil Japan 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 13
Offshoring and export specialisation/competitiveness (1) RCA in Gross Exports (symmetric) Variables I II III IV V VI VII Domestic demand index 0.079*** 0.077*** 0.081*** 0.081*** 0.072*** 0.079*** 0.074*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) K endowment K intensity 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.002*** 0.001*** 0.002*** 0.001*** 0.001*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) High-skill endowment High-skill intensity 1.828*** 1.849*** 2.057*** 2.104*** 1.724*** 1.866*** 1.807*** (0.253) (0.251) (0.251) (0.249) (0.247) (0.254) (0.249) Intermediate use intensity (broad definition) 0.165*** 0.154*** (0.020) (0.019) Intermediates import intensity (broad definition) 0.097*** 0.097*** (0.006) (0.006) Intermediate use intensity (narrow definition) 0.058*** 0.065*** (0.004) (0.004) Intermediates import intensity (narrow definition) 0.006*** 0.008*** (0.001) (0.001) Observations 18639 18612 18603 18603 18612 18603 18603 R-square 0.192 0.197 0.209 0.212 0.205 0.197 0.211 14
Offshoring and export specialisation/competitiveness (2) RCA in Value Added (symmetric) Variables I II III IV V VI VII Domestic demand index 0.077*** 0.075*** 0.079*** 0.078*** 0.071*** 0.077*** 0.072*** (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) K endowment K intensity 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) High-skill endowment High-skill intensity 1.963*** 1.961*** 2.124*** 2.151*** 1.858*** 1.992*** 1.935*** (0.255) (0.254) (0.254) (0.254) (0.250) (0.257) (0.252) Intermediate use intensity (broad definition) 0.098*** 0.088*** (0.020) (0.019) Intermediates import intensity (broad definition) 0.075*** 0.074*** (0.007) (0.006) Intermediate use intensity (narrow definition) 0.057*** 0.063*** (0.004) (0.004) Intermediates import intensity (narrow definition) 0.006*** 0.008*** (0.001) (0.001) Observations 18639 18612 18603 18603 18612 18603 18603 R-square 0.191 0.193 0.2 0.202 0.203 0.195 0.208 15
OECD competitiveness in manufacturing? Share of GVC income in manufacturing, market services, 1995-2009 (%) GVC income in manufacturing and 1995 and 2009 (billion USD) Manufacturing industries Market services 1995 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 4 000 3 500 3 000 2 500 2 000 1 500 1 000 500 0 OECD Non-OECD EU27 United States China Japan 16
Manufacturing competitiveness - services Services content of gross manufacturing exports, 2009 Domestic Foreign 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 17
Manufacturing competitiveness knowledge based assets (1) Value added The smile curve R&D Global Value Chain in the 2000s Services Design Marketing Logistics: purchase Logistics Production Value Chain in the 1970s Pre-production Intangible Pre-production Tangible activities Post-production Intangible Value chain activities 18
Manufacturing competitiveness knowledge based assets (2) RCA in Gross Exports (symmetric) RCA in Value Added (symmetric) Variables I II III I II III Domestic demand index 0.024*** 0.020** 0.019** 0.023** 0.019** 0.018* (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) (0.009) K endowment K intensity 0.003*** 0.003*** 0.003*** 0.004*** 0.003*** 0.003*** (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) (0.000) High-skill endowment High-skill intensity 3.077*** 3.064*** (0.475) (0.483) Intermediates import intensity (broad definition) 0.111*** 0.127*** 0.125*** 0.081*** 0.097*** 0.095*** (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) (0.010) Intermediates use intensity (broad definition) 0.159*** 0.172*** 0.161*** 0.094*** 0.107*** 0.096*** (0.036) (0.035) (0.035) (0.035) (0.035) (0.035) Intangible Capital endowment High-skill intensity 0.040*** -0.01 0.041*** -0.007 Intangible Capital endowment High-skill intensity Imported intermediates use intensity Intangible Capital endowment Imported intermediates (0.005) (0.009) (0.005) (0.010) 0.685*** 0.665*** (0.097) (0.097) -0.286*** -0.278*** (0.042) (0.042) use intensity Observations 6585 6585 6585 6585 6585 6585 R-square 0.316 0.317 0.323 0.308 0.31 0.315 19
Key policy messages - Competitiveness The manufacturing of goods remains a core activity in GVCs. Governments can help anchor production and value creation by supporting investment in skills and advanced manufacturing technologies and through policies that strengthen networks and cooperation. Old-style support policies are not the answer to the decline of the manufacturing sector in advanced economies, as they ignore the interconnected nature of production in GVCs and the need for international competition and openness. Moreover, they raise risks of protectionism. Competitiveness in GVCs involves strengthening production factors that are "sticky and not susceptible to movement across borders. Today, what you do i.e. the activities that a firm or country are involved in matters more for growth and employment than what you sell i.e. the products that make up final sales or exports. 20
Policy implications of GVCs OECD publication MCM 2013 (29/30 May) CH. 1: CH. 2: CH. 3: CH. 4: CH. 5: CH. 6: CH. 7: CH. 8: The rise of GVCs Measuring Trade in Value Added GVCs and trade policy GVCs and investment policy GVCs and economic development National competitiveness and GVCs GVC upgrading and knowledge based assets GVCs and global systemic risk 21
FOR MORE INFO: koen.debacker@oecd.org