Iraq Mood Improving Despite Divisions General Overview January-March 2014 Survey Findings Page 1
The research National Survey 22 January 8 March 2014 500 interviews in the North; 600 interviews in the West; 0 interviews in the South; 500 interviews in Baghdad results weighted representatively National margin of error +/- 3 percent Margin of error +/- 4 percent on West sample, +/- 4.4 percent on North sample, +/- 4.4 percent on South sample, +/- 4.4 percent on Baghdad sample Page 2
Country mood stabilizes Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? 80 Right direction Wrong direction 65 60 45 50 50 50 48 54 51 20 44 41 41 37 44 31 41 0 Nov-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 Page 3
80 All regions moods improve, but negative in West and North Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? from Right Wrong Sep 13 +10-14 +10-17 +10-13 +9-10 +12-13 60 51 41 43 47 54 38 70 35 59 20 24 0 Total Baghdad South West North Page 4
Security and jobs continue to dominate concerns, services drop Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address. Security Jobs and unemployment Corruption Sectarianism Basic services like electricity and water Education and schools High prices Poverty Health care services Delegating more powers to the provincial governments 14 13 8 7 7 2 22 29 45 52 Sep 13 +2 +2-2 +7-10 +1 -- +2-2 n/a 0 20 60 Page 5
Perceived improvement on all major issues Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. Ability of Iraq's sec. forces to maintain security Relations between Sunnis and Shias The Iraqi govt's responsiveness to ppl's needs *Change since April 12 Electricity supply Water supply Education Cost of living Job opportunities Security Distribution of oil revenues Sectarianism Corruption 62 71 Worse 44 49 50 46 56 39 42 48 29 28 37 36 32 26 Better 50 48 47 39 66 65 56 55 Better Sept 13 +19 +9 +10 +34 +23 +22 +30 +12 +17 +16* +11 +17-100 -80-60 - -20 0 20 60 80 100 Page 6
Regional perceptions differ on core issues Please tell me if you think this issue is getting better or worse in Iraq. Security Ability of Iraq's security forces to maintain security Relations between Sunnis and Shias Government responsiveness to people s needs Baghdad South West North Baghdad South West North Baghdad South West North Baghdad South West North 84 72 76 75 80 55 44 55 54 Worse 41 30 35 34 37 45 25 12 19 19 13 16 Better 30 21 43 53 57 68 61 49 58 50 72-100 -80-60 - -20 0 20 60 80 100 Page 7
Solid minority see sectarianism as too deeply-rooted Sectarianism is too deeply-rooted in Iraqi society to ever really go away. With time, sectarianism will become less of a factor in Iraq. Sept 13 +14-8 +28-9 +4-5 +19-19 +4 +10 80 60 20 1 out of 3 Iraqis 32 58 58 20 72 32 53 50 31 0 Total Baghdad South West North Page 8
Democracy & Election Fairness Issues Page 9
Support for democracy in Iraq Democracy is the best form of government for Iraq. Another form of government aside from democracy is better for Iraq. Sept 13 +7-3 +14-6 +12-5 +3-3 -12 +8 80 60 65 71 75 55 47 20 27 28 21 32 31 0 Total Baghdad South West North Page 10
View elections as a good thing Generally speaking, elections are a good thing for Iraq. Generally speaking, elections do not make Iraq a better country. 100 80 60 20 0 92 78 72 56 41 38 31 19 20 4 Total Baghdad South West North Page 11
Enthusiasm for the elections, though tempered in West Generally speaking, would you say you are more or less enthusiastic about voting in this April's parliamentary election compared to previous elections? 100 More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic 80 75 86 86 77 60 20 49 37 0 16 13 9 7 Total Baghdad South West North Page 12
Only West questions elections fairness Based on what you know, do you think that the April parliamentary elections will be mostly free and fair? 100 Free and Fair Not Free and Fair 80 60 66 82 78 58 71 20 0 37 27 26 13 13 Total Baghdad South West North Page 13
Most will respect election outcomes, but less so in West I will respect the outcome of the April elections regardless of who wins. I will only respect the outcome of the April elections if the coalition or party I support wins. 80 79 1 out of 3 Sunni will not respect outcome 60 65 20 24 19 44 27 48 34 0 Total Shia Kurds Sunni Page 14
Majority are unlikely to vote in the West Likely voters are determined by respondents responses to past and future voting behavior questions. 100 Likely Not likely 80 60 20 0 83 72 63 57 56 43 44 37 28 17 Total Baghdad South West North Page 15
Inspiration encourages most to vote, then safety and fairness Thinking about the April parliamentary elections, which TWO of the following would make you even more likely to vote? Among unlikely voters If I felt like my vote would change things If I felt safer when voting If I was sure my vote would be counted accurately If there was a candidate or party I really liked If politicians talked more about things I care about If it was easier to register If I had more time to get to the polls If I had help with transportation to the polls If I knew where to go vote If I knew my neighbors were going to vote 3 6 2 11 14 17 30 32 35 41 0 10 20 30 50 Page 16
100 80 60 20 Attitudes toward Iraq direction improve, Kurdistan worsen Generally speaking, do you think that things in Iraq/Kurdistan are going in the right direction, or do you feel things are going in the wrong direction? (North) 50 37 67 25 52 47 37 Right direction Iraq 64 26 Wrong direction 73 72 15 59 23 35 0 Nov-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 100 80 60 20 9 84 72 74 78 21 22 15 Kurdistan 65 63 74 30 29 23 0 Nov-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Sep-13 Feb-14 63 33 Page 17
Jobs and corruption dominant concern in North Please tell me which TWO of these are the most important for the Iraqi government to address. (North) Jobs and unemployment Corruption High prices Health care services Education and schools Security Sectarianism Basic services like electricity and water Poverty More powers to the provincial governments 16 16 12 11 10 8 5 0 55 62 Sep 13 +22 +12 +2-4 -11-11 -4-2 -5 NA 0 20 60 80 Page 18
Solutions for Key Issues Page 19
Improving security situation Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve the security situation in Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve security? Better armed forces equipment 39 Better armed forces training Disband all militias Tighter border control 31 33 33 Develop a special military force solely focused on destroying terrorists Higher salaries for armed forces 17 19 Improve economic conditions 13 Better integrate all sects into the armed forces 10 0 10 20 30 Page 20
Improving economic situation Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve the economic situation in Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve the economy? Provide access to loan for small business entrepreneurs Provide incentives for companies to hire more employees Bring in more foreign oil companies to develop Iraq's oil fields 31 30 42 Develop non-oil related industries Provide subsidies to help Iraqi farmers 22 25 Improve the security situation Provide incentives to attract foreign investment Increase infrastructure development such as roads and bridges 16 16 15 0 10 20 30 50 Page 21
Improving education Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve education in Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve education? Improve quality of teachers 46 Build more schools 39 Improve school curriculum 31 Increase punishments for teachers who ask for bribes Provide free school supplies and uniforms for students 19 21 Reduce class sizes Increase teacher salaries 13 15 Monetarily reward families if their children have over 95 percent attendance Expand access to university education 6 7 0 10 20 30 50 Page 22
Improving health care Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to improve health care in Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to improve health care? Decrease price of medicines Build more hospitals and clinics Increase availability of medicines Improve the quality of care Increase punishments for doctors who ask for bribes Modernize hospital equipment Shorter waiting times at hospitals Increase doctors' salaries Provide equal access for patients to state-run and privately-run hospitals 37 37 32 20 17 15 15 13 9 0 10 20 30 Page 23
Decreasing corruption Now I am going to read a list of things some people say are needed to reduce corruption in Iraq. Which of the following TWO things are most needed to reduce corruption? Focus more on central government corruption 45 Increase jail sentences for officials found guilty of corruption Focus more on local government corruption Prosecute government officials and clerks who demand bribes 35 34 37 Increase salaries of government employees so they do not have to ask for bribes Have elected officials declare their assets before and after they serve in government Put the entire central government budget online so people can see how every dinar is spent 15 14 18 0 10 20 30 50 Page 24
Candidate and accomplishments most important When it comes time to vote, which of the following are the TWO main factors that determine how you will vote? The individual candidate By accomplishments of candidate The party's policies The party leader The political party According to the suggestions of family Ties you might have to a party The candidate's sect or ethnicity By suggestions of religious leaders According to suggestions of tribal leaders 2 5 5 10 12 21 25 24 37 49 0 10 20 30 50 Page 25
Candidate and party most influential Now I am going to read you a list of various people and organizations. Please tell me how influential each of these is to you when deciding who to support in the next parliamentary elections. Total influential The candidates The political party The party leader Family members Religious leaders Tribal leaders The media Neighborhood or community leaders Your employer 22 28 34 37 49 48 61 59 69 0 20 60 80 Page 26
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