The Political Economy of Africa Instructor: Brett L. Carter Office: Von KleinSmid 355A

The Political Economy of Africa Instructor: Brett L. Carter Office: Von KleinSmid 355A Email: blcarter@usc.edu Course meetings: Tuesday/Thursday, 5p-6.20p Location: TBD Course website: See Blackboard Office hours: TBD Revised: January 4, 2018 Course Motivation and Requirements Living standards around the world have increased, in many cases exponentially, throughout the previous century. Yet Sub-Saharan Africa remains, by a considerable margin, the poorest region on Earth. This course asks three questions: Why is Africa poor? When did it become so? And will it remain so for the foreseeable future? The course draws on a range of social science disciplines anthropology, economics, history, political science, and sociology to offer tentative answers. The course has four requirements, which constitute the basis for grades. First, students are expected to have read all assigned materials prior to class and contribute substantially to class discussions. Weekly reading assignments will average roughly 150 pages. This will constitute 20% of final grades. Second, since understanding the continent s geography is imperative for understanding its politics and economics, on Thursday, January 18, students will complete a map quiz, which will constitute 10% of final grades. Third, students will complete a midterm and final exam; each will constitute 30% of final grades. The exams will require students to skillfully synthesize the course s themes and draw on relevant scholarship. The midterm will be administered in class on Thursday, March 8. The final exam will be scheduled by the Registrar. The final course requirement is a presentation during the final week of class, which will constitute 10% of final grades. Students will give 10 minute briefings to the class. These briefings should introduce the class to pressing issues across the continent, and may focus on any aspect of its politics, economics, or culture that I have neglected. Possible topics include the rise of China, prospects for peace in South Sudan, the effects of international human rights law on political outcomes, terrorism or counter-terrorism in the Sahel, persistent instability in the Horn of Africa, or the past and future of African integration, among countless others. The course is reading intensive, and many of the readings employ statistical techniques to adjudicate among possible answers to substantively important questions. Accordingly, the course is particularly well suited to students who have introductory training in basic statistics. Such training, however, is not required, and students without it are encouraged to enroll as well. To that end, each class lecture will both summarize the weekly readings and thoroughly explain any quantitative methods they employ. The course is designed to give students an appreciation for quantitative and qualitative approaches to social science, without requiring prior training in either. All required readings are available on the course website. 1

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The introductory lecture provides an overview of the course and summarize what we know about global economic growth over the longue durée. We will draw, in particular, from Angus Maddison s pathbreaking work to identify when Africa fell behind. We will focus on the global divergence in the mid-18th century, as well as Africa s catch-up in recent decades. Lecture 2: The African Continent Today, Rising Date: Thursday, January 11 Most broadly, this course searches for the origins of Africa s current economic conditions in its past. So, before we begin, we will briefly discuss the continent s landscape today. We will focus on a variety of countries: their economic performance, the state of their political systems, their record of political violence, etc. This lecture explores the parts of the continent that have given rise to the Africa Rising narrative. Sarah Brierley and George Ofosu. 2016. 9 things you should know about Ghana s election. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/12/07/nine-thingsyou-should-know-about-ghanas-election/?utm term=.7339d984b25d. Mthuli Ncube and Abebe Shimeles. 2015. The Making of the Middle Class in Africa. Journal of Development Studies 51(2). Lecture 3: The African Continent Today, Struggling Date: Tuesday, January 16 Notwithstanding the Africa Rising narrative, citizens in many parts of the continent are much less hopeful, especially after a tumultuous 2016. This lecture provides an overview of those countries, focusing on the central issues that animate their citizens. Nicolas Haque. 2016. A Week in Post-Election Gabon. Al-Jazeera. http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/africa/2016/ post-election-gabon-161001064825797.html. Brett L. Carter. 2018. The Emerging Battle Lines in Central Africa s Autocracies. Journal of Democracy 29(1). Map Quiz Date: Thursday, January 18 3

Part 2: Growth Geography, Factor Endowments, and the Economics of Lecture 4: Is Geography Fate? The Diamond Hypothesis Date: Tuesday, January 23 This lecture focuses on how scholars have explained the broad variation in economic performance that we considered in Lecture 1. We focus particular attention on the role of Africa s geography, as outlined in Jared Diamond s Guns, Germs, and Steel. We discuss his argument: its merits and its shortcomings. Read the chapters critically, especially in light of the Maddison data from Lecture 1. Jared Diamond. 1997. Guns, Germs, and Steel. New York: Norton. Chapters 4 and 19; skim Chapters 10 and 14. Lecture 5: The Economics of Growth Dates: Thursday, January 25, and Tuesday, January 30 Before proceeding, this lecture provides an overview of the theory of economic growth. It begins with a brief introduction to neoclassical growth theory, focusing on the roles of labor, physical capital, and total factor productivity. We then discuss the roles of human capital and political institutions, which condition property rights and incentives for investment. Elhanan Helpman. 2010. The Mystery of Economic Growth. Cambridge: Harvard University. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson. 2001. The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development. The American Economic Review 91(5):1369-1401. David M. Warsh. 2006. Knowledge and the Wealth of Nations: A Story of Economic Discovery. New York: W. W. Norton. (Recommended) Part 3: Africa Before European Conquest Lecture 6: Political Centralization in Pre-Colonial Africa Date: Thursday, February 1 What did Africa look like before European conquest? When did political centralization occur in Africa? Did Africa lag Europe in this regard? If so, were there indeed, are there economic implications? This lecture exploits anthropological, archaeological, linguistic, and, oral evidence to reconstruct African societies before European conquest. 4

Valerie Bockstette, Areendam Chanda, and Louis Putterman. 2002. States and Markets: The Advantage of an Early Start. Journal of Economic Growth 7:347-369. Philip Osafo-Kwaako and James A. Robinson. 2013. Political Centralization in Pre-Colonial Africa. Journal of Comparative Economics 41:6-21. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay and Elliott Green. 2016. Precolonial Political Centralization and Contemporary Development in Uganda. Economic Development and Cultural Change 64(3):471-508. Nehemia Levtzion. 1973. Ancient Ghana and Mali. New York: Africana Publishing Company. (Recommended) John Thornton. 1983. The Kingdom of Kongo. Madison: University of Wisconsin. (Recommended) Jan Vansina. 2004. Antecedents to Modern Rwanda. Madison: University of Wisconsin. (Recommended) Lecture 7: State Formation, Geography, and Disease Profiles Date: Tuesday, February 6 The preceding lecture suggested that Africa centralized politically somewhat later than Europe, and that this late centralization has had persistent economic effects. This lecture asks why state formation in Africa occurred later than in Europe, with a particular focus on the role of geography, ecology, and disease profiles. Jeffrey I. Herbst. 2000. States and Power in Africa: Comparative Lessons in Authority and Control. Princeton: Princeton University. Chapters 1 and 2. James A. Robinson. 2002. States and Power in Africa by Jeffrey I. Herbst: A Review Essay. Journal of Economic Literature 40:510-519. Marcella Alsan. 2014. The Effect of the TseTse Fly on African Development. American Economic Review 105(1):382-410. Part 4: Europe Comes to Africa Lecture 8: The Scope of the Slave Trade Date: Thursday, February 8 5

The trans-atlantic slave trade, successive lectures will make clear, marked a turning point in African history. This lecture provides an overview of the trans-atlantic slave trade: on its scope, its terms on the ground, and its short-term effects. John Reader. 1997. Africa: A Biography of the Continent. New York: Vintage. Chapters 36-37. Sven Beckert. 2014. Empire of Cotton: A Global History. New York: Knopf. Chapters TBD. (Recommended) Paul Lovejoy. 1989. The Impact of the Slave Trade on Africa. Journal of African History 30:365-394. (Recommended) David Eltis and David Richardson. 2008. Extending the Frontiers: Essays on the New Transatlantic Slave Trade Database. New Haven: Yale University. Chapter 1. (Recommended) Lecture 9: Slave Raids and Long-Term Effects Date: Tuesday, February 13 The slave trade, it goes entirely without saying, was horribly brutal to those who experienced it. Today we consider its long-term effects on the continent s political and economic development. Nathan Nunn. 2008. The Long Term Effects of Africa s Slave Trades. Quarterly Journal of Economics 123:139-176. Nathan Nunn and Leonard Wantchekon. 2011. The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa. American Economic Review 101(7):3221-3252. Nathan Nunn and Diego Puga. 2012. Ruggedness: The Blessing of Bad Geography in Africa. Review of Economics and Statistics 94(1):20-36. Thomas Fujiwara et al. 2017. Tordesillas, Slavery and the Origins of Brazilian Inequality. Unpublished. Lecture 10: From Abolition to Colonialism, aka Legitimate Commerce Date: Thursday, February 15 This lecture constitutes the first of four on colonialism and its long-term effects. This first lecture documents the decline of the trans-atlantic slave trade and the rise of legitimate commerce as it was called by contemporaries and colonialism. It examines two models of colonialism: the period of extraction between 1885 and 1920, and the period of indirect rule between 1920 and 1960. Anthony Hopkins. 1973. An Economic History of West Africa. New York: Cambridge University. Chapter 4. 6

Adam Hochschild. 1999. King Leopold s Ghost: A Story of Greed, Terror, and Heroism in Colonial Africa. New York: Houghton Mifflin. Chapters 4, 8-10, 17, and 19. No Class Date: Tuesday, February 20, and Thursday, February 22 Lecture 11: South Africa, Liberia, and the Economic Effects of Repression Date: Tuesday, February 27 This lecture presents two case studies on African colonialism: apartheid South Africa and Liberia. The lecture argues that canonical concepts from development economics the dual economy model, developed by Nobel Laureate Arthur Lewis, and dependency theory were outcomes of the political interests of colonizers rather than natural features of the development process. To illustrate the long-term economic effects of extractive political institutions, the lecture also considers the American South, dominated by slavery until the Thirteenth Amendment in 1865 and de facto segregation for more than a century later. Charles Feinstein. 2005. An Economic History of South Africa. New York: Cambridge University. Chapters 3, 4, and 7. Lecture 12: The Scramble for Africa, Ethnic Partitioning, and Violence Date: Thursday, March 1 The Berlin Conference of 1885 traditionally marks the onset of European colonialism. Its participants created new country borders with relatively little regard for existing ethnic and political cleavages. Indeed, nearly 50% of these borders were simply straight lines. Absurd though they were, these borders were not drawn randomly. This lecture examines how they were drawn and their long term political effects. Stelios Michalopoulos and Elias Papaioannou. 2015. The Long-Run Effects of the Scramble for Africa, NBER Working Paper. Lecture 13: Cameroon, Silicon Mountain, and the Anglophone Crisis Date: Tuesday, March 6 This lecture focuses on how colonialism has effects in contemporary Africa. Cameroon. It focuses on TBD 7

Midterm Exam Date: Thursday, March 8 Part 5: Independence Lecture 14: Between Colonialism and Independence Date: Tuesday, March 13 We discussed earlier that colonial governments created a set of political institutions that were designed to extract economic resources from the local population. Upon ascending to power, newly independent governments inherited these extractive political institutions. With common political institutions and somewhat common political objectives, newly independent governments implemented policies that were strikingly similar to their European predecessors. This lecture documents this and attempts to explain why. Robert Bates. 1981. Markets and States in Tropical Africa. Berkeley: University of California. Chapters 1-4. Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson. 2002. Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution. Quarterly Journal of Economics 91(5):1369-1401. Lecture 15: The Slide Into Dictatorship, FrançAfrique, and the Resource Curse Date: Thursday, March 16, and Tuesday, March 20 During the 1970s and 1980s, Arica s resource rich economies confronted different challenges than their counterparts. This lecture discusses the rise of the continent s oil industry, the role of the Cold War, the misadventures of European firms, and the natural resource curse. Using examples from Congo, Equatorial Guinea, and Gabon, the lecture s central argument is that the resource course is an outcome of political institutions. Michael Ross. 2012. The Oil Curse. New York: Princeton University. Chapters 2 and 3. Steve Haber and Victor Menaldo. 2011. Do Natural Resources Fuel Authoritarianism? American Political Science Review 105(1): 1-26. Nicholas Shaxson. 2007. Poisoned Wells: The Dirty Politics of African Oil. New York: Palgrave MacMillan. Chapters 4 and 5. 8

Lecture 16: The Political Economy of Famine Date: Thursday, March 22, and Tuesday, March 27 During the 1970s and 1980s, parts of the African continent acquired a reputation for persistent food insecurity. This lecture probes the sources of famine. Is famine a product of agricultural yields? Or is famine political? Amartya Sen. 1981. Poverty and Famines: An Essay on Entitlement and Deprivation. New York: Clarendon Press. Chapters 1-5. Lecture 17: Theories of Democratization Date: Thursday, March 29 In January 1989 as food prices rose, commodity prices declined, and Soviet support evaporated the Third Wave of Democracy reached Africa. The continent s autocrats bowed to popular demands for reform. Some fell, others survived. But virtually all were subjected to nominally democratic institutions: term limits, parliaments, and regular multiparty elections. This lecture surveys the dominant theories of democratization. Daron Acemoglu and James A. Robinson. 2001. Economic Origins of Dictatorship and Democracy. New York: Cambridge. Chapters 2 and 3. Lecture 18: The Third Wave of Democracy Date: Tuesday, April 3 This lecture uses the theories of democratization presented in the last lecture to understand why the Third Wave happened and how it occurred. Michael Bratton and Nicholas van de Walle. 1997. Democratic Experiments in Africa. New York: Cambridge. Chapter 3. Lecture 19: Political Violence and State Failure Date: Thursday, April 5 In many parts of the continent, the Third Wave gave way to brutal violence. This lecture focuses on why. Drawing on examples from across Africa and especially Liberia, where Samuel Doe deposed the ruling Americo-Liberians in 1980, only to fall to Charles Taylor a decade later we attempt to understand the causes of violence from the perspective of political economy. Robert Bates. 2008. Political Conflict and State Failure. In The Political Economy of Economic Growth in Africa, 1960-2000, edited by Benno J. Ndulu et al. New York: Cambridge. 9

William Reno. 1998. Warlord Politics and African States. Boulder: Lynne Rienner. Chapter 3. Scott Strauss. 2004. The Order of Genocide: Race, Power, and War in Rwanda. Ithaca: Cornell. (Recommended) Part 6: Africa in the Era of Globalization Lecture 20: The International Criminal Court and Transitional Justice Date: Tuesday, April 10 Much of the violence that occurred throughout the continent in the late 1980s and early 1990s targeted civilians. But not all. This lecture asks why some civil wars were so much more traumatic for African citizens than others. Geoff Dancy and Florencia Montal. 2015. Unintended Positive Complementarity: Why International Criminal Court Investigations Increase Domestic Human Rights Prosecutions. Unpublished. Hyeran Jo and Beth A. Simmons. 2016. Can the International Criminal Court Deter Atrocity? International Organization 70 (Summer):443-475. Lecture 21: Foreign Aid, Autocratic Survival, and Globalization Date: Thursday, April 12 By attaching good governance conditions to development aid and debt relief, international donors attempt to ensure that financial transfers benefit African citizens. They may or may not succeed. But is it possible that foreign aid and, more broadly, the international human rights norms that inform aid conditionality have tangible effects on domestic politics across Africa? Brett L. Carter. 2016. Repression and Foreign Aid in Autocracies: Exploiting Debt Relief Negotiations in Post-Cold War Africa. AidData Working Paper Series #29. Brett L. Carter. 2016. The Struggle Over Term Limits in Africa: How International Pressure Can Help. Journal of Democracy 27(3):36-50. Lecture 22: Globalization, Foreign Aid, and Economics Date: Tuesday, April 17 Foreign aid is much maligned. At worst, its critics argue, it has fostered African poverty. At best, its champions claim, it can bring about the end of poverty. After surveying these arguments, this lecture presents evidence that living standards are rising across Africa, and have been for some two decades. Is development aid from Western governments responsible for this increase? 10

Xavier Sala-i-Martin and Maxim Pinkovskiy. 2010. African Poverty is Falling... Much Faster Than You Think! NBER Working Paper Series 15775. Dambisa Moyo. 2009. Dead Aid. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux. Chapters TBD William Easterly. 2009. Can the West Save Africa? Journal of Economic Literature 47(2): 373-44. William Easterly. 2001. The Elusive Quest for Growth. Cambridge: MIT. Chapters TBD. (Recommended) Jeffrey Sachs. 2005. The End of Poverty. New York: Penguin. Chapters TBD. (Recommended) Lecture 23: The Rise of China Date: Thursday, April 19 The rise of China constitutes perhaps the most fundamental turning point in Africa since the end of the Cold War. China is now Africa s largest trading partner and a substantial source of development aid. By providing no political conditions, critics argue, China s rise has helped to shield Africa s autocrats and fostered democratic retrenchment. Others regard Chinese aid as a blessing. This lecture surveys these arguments in the context of recent data. Deborah Brautigam. 2009. The Dragon s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa. New York: Oxford University. Chapter 11. Axel Dreher et al. 2016. Aid on Demand: African Leaders and the Geography of China s Foreign Assistance. AidData Working Paper Series #3 Revised. Diego Hernandez. 2016. Are New Donors Challenging World Bank Conditionality? AidData Working Paper Series #19. Gina Kelly, Samuel Brazys, and Johan A. Elkink. 2016. The Dragon s Curse? China, the World Bank, and Perceptions of Corruption in Tanzania. AidData Working Paper Series #26. Part 7: Conclusion Final Presentations Dates: Tuesday, April 24, and Thursday, April 26 11