MIGRATION BY THE NUMBERS ONEDC MIGRATION PRESENTATION 6 OCTOBER, 216. SUDBURY CHARLES CIRTWILL, PRESIDENT & CEO, NORTHERN POLICY INSTITUTE
Northern Ontario s Immigration Trends in Context 2
Ontario Immigration 16, 14, 12, Permanent Residents Destined for Ontario Ontario s Share of Immigration in Canada Number of PRs 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Source: Forging Ahead Ontario s Immigration Strategy Source: IRCC 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year 3
Permanent Resident Admissions 3, 8 PRs (Ontario and Canada) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 PRs (Northern Ontario) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: IRCC Canada Ontario Northern Ontario 4
Provincial Nominee Program 5
Gaining Prominence Number of Immigrants 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Total Number of Provincial Nominations in Canada PNP Admissions as a Percentage of Canadian Economic Immigration 5% in 25 26% in 215 Source: IRCC Data and author s calculations 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: IRCC 6
Ontario Immigrant Nominee Program 6, Ontario lmmigrant Nominee Limits from 29-215 Number of Immigrants 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, OINP only 6% of Ontario s economic immigration in 215 In Manitoba the PNP was 91% of its economic immigration in 215 In smaller regions like PEI it was 95% in 215 Source: IRCC 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year 7
Destinations of OINP Immigrants Ontario Immigrant Nominees by Economic Region, 215 Number of Provincial Nominees 25 2 15 1 5 9 14 16 27 28 116 143 2 37 371 2254 Economic Region Source: IRCC 8
OINP as Means of Immigrant Dispersion In 215 almost half of all immigrants coming to Canada intended to settle in only 1 of 3 cities: Toronto, Vancouver or Montreal Needed to avoid concentration of immigrants in metropolitan areas which could: Strain existing resources including housing, transportation, education and local employment opportunities Issue of equity all share the costs of immigration, time to share the wealth 9
PNP Promoting Immigrant Dispersion? No, perhaps at the interprovincial it s been effective but not at the intraprovincial level The Toronto Immigrant Employment Data Initiative study suggests close to 8% of Ontario PNP immigrants from 1996-29 immigrated to Toronto 215 numbers show that number to be down to ~63%, indicating that the share of OINP immigrants going to Toronto has decreased 1
Carving out a piece of the PNP: Morden s example (the MCDII) Morden is a small town in Manitoba with a population of approximately 8 They successfully established a local immigration program under the MPNP which allows them to select 5 families a year to immigrate to Morden Municipality screens people for the PNP Conditions Have to do an exploratory visit 1 week long where they get to explore lifestyle, employment, health and housing options Have no connection to other parts of Canada Results: tremendous population growth and they re able to fill local employment needs and grow 11
Lessons from Morden Community needs to be receptive Jobs need to exist Morden is unique to the MPNP program, OINP would have to be modified before a similar program could be established Community needs to have a good relationship with the PNP administrators 12
Quantifying Immigration in Northern Ontario 13
Primary Immigration Measures immigrants who immigrated directly to a community Statistics collected by the IRCC on stated intended destination at port-of-entry 14
Number of PRs 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: IRCC Permanent Residents Intended Destination Annually (NO, NEO, NWO) 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year NO NEO NWO 15
14 Permanent Residents Intended Destination NEO by CD 12 1 Number of PRs 8 6 4 2 Source: IRCC 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Algoma Cochrane Manitoulin Sudbury 16
Number of PRs 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: IRCC Permanent Residents Intended Destination NEO by CD 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Nipissing Timiskaming Parry Sound 17
Number of Permanent Residentss 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Source: IRCC Permanent Residents Destined for Greater Sudbury 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year 18
3 Permanent Residents Intended Destination Northwestern Ontario 25 Number of Immigrants 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: IRCC NWO Kenora Rainy River Thunder Bay 19
Primary Immigration by Categories 2
7 Thunder Bay Permanent Resident Admissions 26-215 6 Number of Permanent Residents 5 4 3 2 1 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: IRCC Family class Economic immigrants Refugees Other immigrants 21
Greater Sudbury Permanent Resident Admissions 26-215 25 2 Number of Permanent Residents 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: IRCC Family class Economic immigrants Refugees Other immigrants 22
Number of Permanent Residents 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Permanent Resident Admissions to Ontario 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Number of Permanent Residents 3 25 2 15 1 5 Permanent Resident Admissions to Northern Ontario 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: IRCC Family class Economic immigrants Other immigrants Refugees Family class Economic immigrants Other immigrants Refugees Source: IRCC Number of Permanent Residents 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Source: IRCC Permanent Resident Admissions to Northwest Ontario 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Family class Economic immigrants Other immigrants Refugees Number of Permanent Residents 3 25 2 15 1 5 Source: IRCC Permanent Resident Admissions to Northeast Ontario 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Family class Economic immigrants Other immigrants Refugees 23
Secondary Migration 24
High Rates of Secondary Migration After 1 years over 4% of immigrants who landed in Ontario in 21 had moved municipalities Approximately 9% of that movement was in Ontario. 4% of skilled newcomers say that they are willing to consider relocation to small/rural towns Attracting Immigrants to Ontario s Non-Urban Communities Source: Michael Haan Report on secondary migration 25
Estimating Secondary Migration in Northern Ontario Community % of Secondary Migrants Served in 215 Sault Ste. Marie ~58% Thunder Bay ~52% North Bay ~43% Timmins ~33% Source: Multicultural Centre Data 26
Where are secondary immigrants coming from? Number of Migrants 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 Migrants To Northern Ontario by Previous CA/CMA 27-212 Source: Northern Ontario Immigration Report, 215 CA/CMA Number of Migrants 25 2 15 1 5 Migrants to Northeastern Ontario Based on Previous CA/CMA 27-212 Source: Northern Ontario Immigration Report, 215 Number of Migrants 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Previous CA/CMA Migrants to Northwestern Ontario Based on Previous CA/CMA 27-212 Source: Northern Ontario Immigration Report, 215 Previous CA/CMA 27
Retention 28
Retention: Where are immigrants leaving for? Number of Migrants 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Migrants From Northern Ontario To CA/CMA 27-212 Source: Northern Ontario Immigration Report, 215 CA/CMA Number of Migrants Number of Migrants 6 5 4 3 2 1 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Migrants From Northeastern Ontario To CA/CMA 27-212 CA/CMA Source: Northern Ontario Immigration Report, 215 Migrants From Northwestern Ontario To CA/CMA 27-212 Source: Northern Ontario Immigration Report, 215 CA/CMA 29
International Students 3
25 International Students Studying at Northern Ontario Post-Secondary Institutions 2 Number of Students 15 1 5 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Source: CUDO and OCAS Year University College University and College Combined Total 31
International Students Studying at Northern Ontario Universities 5 45 4 Number of Students 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Year Algoma Lakehead Laurentian Nipissing 32
1,2 International Students Studying at Northern Ontario Colleges 1, Number of Students 8 6 4 2 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Cambrian College Canadore College Collège Boréal Confederation College Northern College Sault College Year 33
Comparing International Student Growth to Northern Ontario Immigration 25 2 Number of People 15 1 5 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 Year Northern Ontario International Students Northern Ontario Immigration Source: CUDO, OCAS and CANSIM 51-63 34
International Students I believe international students are among the most fertile source of new immigrants for Canada. By definition, they are educated. They speak English or French. They know something about the country, so they should be first on our list of people who we court to come to Canada. -Immigration Minister John McCallum 35
Current International Student Retention Rates (An Estimate) Thunder Bay Study Permit Holders who Became PRs 12 Number of Individuals 1 8 6 4 Thunder Bay--Study permit holders who became Permanent Residents 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 -- -- 1 -- 1 1 1 1 5 -- 5 5 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 Year Source: IRCC 36
Transition of Foreign Students to Permanent Residents in Canada Number of Students % of Students that Transition 12 16 Number of Foreign Students 1 8 6 4 2 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 % of Foreign Students who Transitioned 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 Year Source: Facts and Figures 29 37
Current Initiatives to Welcome International Students to Communities Immigration system needs to be changed to make it easier for international students to immigrate but, there are things that can be done on the community side too Laurentian University Police ride-along Sudbury post-secondary institutions market Sudbury as a destination when they hand out international acceptances admit to Sudbury Developed packages with the city 38
Initiatives to Watch: Global Hamilton Global Hamilton Connect Vision: enable international students and young newcomers to be fully aware of and have access to opportunities in order to live, work and play in Hamilton Organize events, help international students navigate the immigration process, connect international students and newcomers to the Hamilton community and employers 39
Group-Based Recruiting 4
Schenectady: Targeting an Ethnic Community Mayor decided to target the Guyanese immigrant community in New York to reverse population decline He ran bus trips from New York to Schenectady for the Guyanese community and acted as the tour guide Targeted Guyanese immigrants through Guyanese radio in NY Sold off cheap demolition houses Increased Guyanese population from 2 in 21 to 1, in 216 41
Similar Distances: Schenectady in Northern Ontario 42
Winkler and Steinbach Mennonites Towns in Manitoba with histories of strong Mennonite communities Mennonite Center in Winkler and Steinbach used to attract Mennonites from Germany, Mexico and South America City representatives also went to Germany and Moscow primarily to recruit Mennonite Immigrants Northern Ontario Mennonites Some from Southern Ontario are already moving up (Mennonites in Timmins) maybe it s time to start recruiting internationally 43
Marketing 44
Marketing The greatest source of information for the newcomers and international students for making decision to arrive in their respective province was from family, friends and university alumni. Hence, words of mouth are very important in attracting immigrants. Attracting and Retaining Immigrants to Newfoundland and Labrador 45
Marketing in Northern Ontario Community branding Timmins I m in campaign Immigration web portals One for all of Northwestern Ontario Fractured basis for Northeastern Ontario Cities have separate immigrant portals North Bay Sault Ste. Marie Greater Sudbury Timmins section of EDC website But, a Northeastern Immigration Portal is underway lead by Timmins 46
Marketing for Inclusion Important for retention and integration purposes that immigrants are welcomed by communities. This involves measures taken to combat racism and promote acceptance. Sault Ste. Marie created a TV spot that won an award in Paris building on the themes of diversity Nebraska also had a good marketing campaign for inclusion 47
Marketing for Inclusion Nebraska Sault Ste. Marie 48
Per Capita Comparison 49
12 Immigrants per 1k people, 215 1 Immigrants per 1k people 8 6 4 2 Source: CANSIM 51-63 Geographic Area 5
CMA Comparison Across Canada Immigrants per 1k people 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Immigrants per 1k people, 215 Saguenay Thunder Bay Peterborough Greater Sudbury Kingston Brantford Barrie Oshawa St-Catharines-- Kelowna Trois-Rivières Victoria St. John's Hamilton Québec London Saint John Guelph Kitchener- Sherbrooke Census Metropolitan Area Ottawa- Halifax Windsor Moncton Abbotsford- Montréal Edmonton Vancouver Toronto Calgary Saskatoon Regina Winnipeg 51
CA/CMA Comparison Across Canada 9 Immigration per 1k people, 211 8 Immigration per 1k people 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Elliot Lake Timmins Sault Ste Marie North Bay Greater Sudbury Thunder Bay Peterborough Prince George Red Deer CA/CMA 52
Provincial Immigration Comparison 53
215 Immigration for the Provinces and Territories 1 9 8 Number of Immigrants 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Province/Territory Source: CANSIM 51-63 54
Immigrants per 1k people, 215 12 1 Immigrants per 1k people 8 6 4 2 Province/Territory 55
The Atlantic Provinces 3 Immigration in the Atlantic Provinces 22-215 Newfoundland and Labrador Prince Edward Island Nova Scotia New Brunswick 25 Number of Immigrants 2 15 1 5 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: CANSIM 51-63 56
Quebec and Ontario Immigration in Quebec and Ontario 22-215 Quebec Ontario 18 16 14 Number of Immigrants 12 1 8 6 4 2 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: CANSIM 51-63 57
Prairies and B.C. Immigration in the Prairies and B.C. 22-215 Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia 5 45 4 Number of Immigrants 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 Year Source: CANSIM 51-63 58
Immigrant Employment Success 59
12 Landed Immigrant Unemployment Rate Across Canada, 215 1 8 Unemployment Rate (%) 6 4 2 Province/City Source: CANSIM 282-12 6
Unemployment Rate Across Canada, 215 12 Immigrant Canadian Born 1 Unemployment Rate (%) 8 6 4 2 Source: CANSIM 282-12 Province/City 61
Comparing the Unemployment Rate by Education Level in Canada, 215 Unemployment Rate (%) 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Landed immigrants Born in Canada Total, all education levels No degree, certificate or diploma High school graduate High school graduate, some post-secondary Post-secondary certificate or diploma University degree Level of Education Source: CANSIM 282-16 62
Attraction Factors 63
Primary Reason for Choosing Destination (CMAs) Housing 4% Other 13% Business Prospects 6% Primary Reason for Choosing Destination (Outside TMV) Other 8% Lifestyle 5% Education prospects 5% Presence of friends and family 59% Lifestyle 6% Education prospects 12% Presence of friends and family 36% Job prospects 14% Job prospects 32% Source: Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, 21. Source: Longitudinal Survey of Immigrants to Canada, 21. 64
Summary 65
Play to strengths Target secondary migration GTA campaign? Jobs that ARE here Understand what migrants want Brand to match that Target groups and populations: friends and family Students ambassadors, not residents Rules need to change: PNP regional allocations (federal or provincial change) Data access CIC, MPAC Students work while learn etc. 66