Trade: Behind the Headlines The Public s View Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes WTO, Geneva, September 26, 2017
THE ECONOMIC CONTEXT HAS IMPROVED October 3, 2017 www.pewproject.org 2
Views of National Economies Vary Widely The current economic situation in our country is good Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. Q5. October 3, 2017 3
Many Feel Better About Their National Economies The current economic situation in our country is good Note: Only double digit changes shown. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. 2017 2015-2017 Change % Poland 64 +26 Russia 46 +22 Indonesia 63 +21 Ghana 46 +20 Turkey 65 +18 U.S. 58 +18 Senegal 76 +16 Philippines 78 +15 Israel 62 +13 Germany 86 +11 Spain 28 +10 Mexico 28-12 South Africa 45-14 Argentina 23-15 Nigeria 41-16 4
80% In EU, Japan, U.S., Views of Economy Have Recovered to Pre-Financial Crisis Levels The current economic situation in our country is good 46 36 50 36 28 58 U.S. 51 EU 41 Japan 6 0 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2017 Note: EU median of France, Germany, Italy, Poland and the UK. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes survey. Q5. October 3, 2017 5
BUT DON T UNDERESTIMATE THE IMPORTANCE OF THE CHANGING SOCIAL CONTEXT OF GLOBALIZATION October 3, 2017 6
Americans Have Experienced Dramatic Change in One Lifetime 1967 2017 % % Non-white 12 38 Foreign-born 4.9 14 White, no college education 75 39 18-34, living with parents 22 32 Births to unmarried women 8.5 40.3 Women in the workforce 41 57 Share of wealth owned by top 1% 27 42 Source: Mehlman, Castagnetti, Rosen & Thomas analysis based on data from U.S. Census Bureau, Pew Research Center, U.S. Dept. of Labor and T. Piketty. October 3, 2017 7
PUBLICS SUPPORT GLOBALIZATION IN PRINCIPLE October 3, 2017 8
People Around the World Favor International Trade and Business Ties In general, trade and business ties between our country and other countries around the world is a good thing Europe 91% Africa 90 Asia-Pacific 88 Middle East 83 Latin America 80 U.S. 87 Note: Percentages represent regional medians. Source: Spring 2017 Global Attitudes Survey. 9
But If Costs and Benefits Are Noted, Support Goes Down Which statement comes closer to your view about our country s involvement in the global economy? Netherlands Sweden Germany Kenya Nigeria Australia Canada UK China Japan Hungary Spain India France Poland South Africa Italy U.S. Greece Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. Bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs in our country 25% 25 24 25 25 27 28 29 23 32 34 39 25 45 27 46 44 49 57 Good because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth 71% 71 70 70 70 67 64 64 60 58 56 56 52 51 48 48 44 44 35 10
THOSE WHO HAVE PROSPERED ARE PARTICULARLY UPBEAT ABOUT GLOBAL ECONOMIC INTEGRATION October 3, 2017 11
Chinese Have Positive View of Global Economic Engagement Which statement comes closer to your view about China s involvement in the global economy? It is bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs 23% Neither (VOL) 6% Don't know 11% It is good because it provides China with new markets and opportunities for growth 60% Involvement in the global economy is a good thing for China because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth TOTAL 60% Urban 63 Rural 55 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3, 2017 12
Roughly Half of Indians Think India s Involvement in the Global Economy Is a Good Thing Which statement comes closer to your view about India s involvement in the global economy? Neither (VOL) It s bad because it lowers wages, costs jobs 25% 3% Don t know 20% It s good because it provides India with new markets, opportunities for growth 52% Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3, 2017 13 www.pewresearch.org
AFRICANS SOMEWHAT DIVIDED ON ECONOMIC INTEGRATION October 3, 2017 14
Kenyans, Nigerians Quite Positive on the Benefits of Global Economic Involvement; South Africans Split Which statement comes closer to your view about our country s involvement in the global economy? It is bad because it lowers wages and costs jobs It is good because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth Kenya 25% 70% Nigeria 25 70 South Africa 46 48 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. 15
IN EUROPE, IT DEPENDS WHO YOU ASK October 3, 2017 16
Widely Differing European Views on Economic Engagement Our country s involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides our country with new markets and opportunities for growth Netherlands Sweden Germany 72% 71 70 UK 64 Hungary Spain 56 56 France Poland 48 51 Italy 44 Greece 35 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3, 2017 17
Those Partial to Populist Parties Are More Negative on Global Economic Engagement Our country s involvement in the global economy is a bad thing because it lowers wages and costs jobs Among those with a favorable view of Among those with an unfavorable view of French National Front 43% 53% Dutch Party for Freedom 17 44 Swedish Democrats 20 42 Alternative for Germany 22 38 UK Independence Party 25 38 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3, 2017 18
One Reason: Many Doubt the Benefits of Trade and FDI Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs October 3, 2017 19 Trade lowers prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories in our country is good % % % % % % Spain 91 28 56 22 43 85 Germany 90 28 43 26 19 66 UK 88 34 50 24 39 82 Greece 79 21 44 35 31 67 Poland 78 38 51 26 40 75 France 73 14 24 28 32 75 Italy 59 7 13 22 23 61 Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey.
JAPANESE BACK ECONOMIC INTEGRATION IN PRINCIPLE BUT DOUBT ITS BENEFITS October 3, 2017 20
Majority Say Global Economic Engagement is a Good Thing, But Women and Older People Are Less Positive Involvement in the global economy is a good thing because it provides Japan with new markets and opportunities for growth Total 58% Men 63 Women 53 18-34 67 35-49 62 50+ 53 Source: Spring 2016 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3, 2017 www.pewresearch.org 21
Japanese Are the Least Enthusiastic in Asia-Pacific About Globalization s Benefits Trade is good Trade increases wages Trade creates jobs Trade lowers prices Foreign companies buying domestic companies is good Foreign companies building factories in our country is good % % % % % % Vietnam 95 72 78 31 59 80 Malaysia 87 47 57 9 45 78 Chile 85 27 52 28 53 68 Peru 81 42 55 24 59 70 Mexico 71 31 43 24 50 69 Japan 69 10 15 27 17 58 Source: Spring 2014 Global Attitudes Survey. October 3, 2017 22
AMERICAN VIEWS ON TRADE ARE PARTISAN AND CHANGING Sept. 18, 2015 www.pewresearch.org 23
In Principle Americans Favor Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a for the United States 80% Good thing 59 58 52 48 51 45 52 34 41 Bad thing 30 33 39 43 40 0 2009 2011 2014 2015 2016 2017 Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017. October 3, 2017 24
Older White Men Are the Most Negative on Free Trade Deals Free trade agreements between the U.S. and other countries have been a for the United States Good thing Bad thing % % TOTAL Population 52 40 White men 46 47 18-34 63 32 35-49 49 41 50-64 35 55 65+ 34 58 Note: Whites include only those who are not Hispanic. Source: Pew Research Center Survey, April 5-11, 2017. October 3, 2017 25
All Pew Research Center reports and data are available online at www.pewresearch.org Bruce Stokes Director, Global Economic Attitudes bstokes@pewresearch.org @bruceestokes October 3, 2017 26